It was a quieter night in the NHL playoffs last night, with only two games on tap. In the North Division, in the back end of a back-to-back pair of games, Toronto defeated hometown Montreal, 4-0. Standouts for Toronto included former Canadien Alex Galchenyuk, who had two nice assists and an empty net goal, and Jack Campbell, who recorded his first career playoff shutout. Toronto now leads the series 3-1, and we’re giving them a 95.5% chance of winning the series, and a 70.0% chance of winning it in 5 games.
The other game of the night was more exciting, with Nashville and Carolina going to overtime for the third game in a row. The last two games both went to double overtime, but this one was over quick, 1:44 into the first overtime period, when Jordan Staal batted the puck out of the air on a rebound from Juuse Saros and bounced it past the netminder. Carolina now takes a 3-2 lead on the road to Nashville, hoping to close out the series Thursday night. We’re giving Carolina an 82.2% chance of winning the series, and a 53.0% chance of winning it in Game 6.
Tonight’s games could all eliminate a team from the playoffs. The New York Islanders are at home to Pittsburgh with a 3-2 series lead. We’re giving the Islanders a 70.2% chance of winning the series, and a 52.0% chance of winning in 6. The second game has Florida visiting Tampa Bay, with Tampa Bay leading that series 3-2. Tampa Bay is favoured by the gang at McDonald NHL Power Ratings, with a 74.5% chance of winning the series and a 56.0% chance of finishing it tonight. And in the final game of the evening, Vegas travels to Minnesota, up 3 games to 2. Vegas is hoping to finish the series on the road, with a 48.9% chance of winning tonight and a 78.5% chance of winning the series.
Yesterday’s Games
North Division, 1 vs. 4
Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
- Toronto leads series 3-1
- Toronto now has a 95.5% chance of winning the series, up from 83.9%
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
- May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
- May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning (▲11.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 70.0% (▲29.4)
- In 6 games: 17.1% (▼8.7)
- In 7 games: 8.4% (▼9.2)
- Montreal has a 4.5% chance of winning (▼11.6)
- In 7 games: 4.5% (▼4.9)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼6.7)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Central Division, 1 vs. 4
Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
- Carolina leads series 3-2
- Carolina now has an 82.2% chance of winning the series, up from 62.3%
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
- May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
- May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Carolina has a 82.2% chance of winning (▲19.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 53.0% (▲20.0)
- In 7 games: 29.2% (▼0.1)
- Nashville has a 17.8% chance of winning (▼19.9)
- In 7 games: 17.8% (▼0.2)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼19.7)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Games
East Division, 1 vs. 4
Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- New York Islanders lead series 3-2
- New York Islanders have a 70.2% chance of winning the series
Central Division, 2 vs. 3
Florida at Tampa Bay
- Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
- Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning the series
West Division, 2 vs. 3
Vegas at Minnesota
- Vegas leads series 3-2
- Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)
Carolina leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Carolina 82%, Nashville 18%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
- Nashville: 1506, 15th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Nashville: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 5-2-3
- Nashville: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
- May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
- May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 82.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 53.0%
- In 7 games: 29.2%
- Nashville has a 17.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 17.8%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Florida 25%, Tampa Bay 75%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1553, 8th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Florida: 5 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 8-2-0
- Tampa Bay: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
- May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay
- May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 25.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 25.5%
- Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.5%
- In 6 games: 56.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
East Division
Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
New York Islanders lead series 3-2
Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 30%, New York Islanders 70%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
- NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
- New York Islanders: 3-4-3
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
- May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
- May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 29.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 29.8%
- NY Islanders has a 70.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.3%
- In 6 games: 52.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)
Boston wins series 4-1
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Washington: 1572, 4th overall
- Boston: 1557, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Boston: 4 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Washington: 7-2-1
- Boston: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
- May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)
Colorado wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 5 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 3 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 8-2-0
- St. Louis: 6-1-3
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
- May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)
Vegas leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Vegas 79%, Minnesota 21%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
- Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
- Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Vegas: 7-3-0
- Minnesota: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
- May 26: Vegas at Minnesota
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 48.9%
- In 7 games: 29.6%
- Minnesota has a 21.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 21.5%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Toronto leads series 3-1
Chances of winning: Toronto 95%, Montreal 5%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
- Montreal: 1467, 21st overall
Head-to-head this year (10 games):
- Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-1-2
- Montreal: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
- May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
- May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 70.0%
- In 6 games: 17.1%
- In 7 games: 8.4%
- Montreal has a 4.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 4.5%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)
Winnipeg wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
- Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
- Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-3-0
- Winnipeg: 3-7-0
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
- May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
- May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 21.4% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 9.6% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9.2% 4 Carolina Hurricanes 9.0% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 9.0% 6 Washington Capitals 8.0% 7 Florida Panthers 6.5% 8 Edmonton Oilers 6.1% 9 Boston Bruins 5.4% 10 Minnesota Wild 4.3% 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.1% 12 New York Islanders 2.2% 13 Nashville Predators 1.7% 14 St. Louis Blues 1.6% 15 Winnipeg Jets 1.3% 16 Montreal Canadiens 0.7%