5 games. 2 overtime games. 5 overtime periods. 3 teams facing elimination. 1 team eliminated. It was quite a day yesterday!
In the first game of the day, it took 2 overtime periods for the New York Islanders to beat Pittsburgh, 3-2. Although Pittsburgh dominated the game, it was the Islanders coming out on top, and they head to Long Island with a 3-2 series lead. We now give New York a 70% chance of winning that series.
In the second game, Toronto defeated Montreal 2-1. Once again, Carey Price was amazing in net for Montreal, but he can’t do everything by himself. Toronto now leads the series 2-1, and we’re giving Toronto an 84% chance of winning the series.
In the next game, Florida, facing elimination, started rookie Spencer Knight in net. 19-year-old Knight had only played in 4 games in the NHL, but played brilliantly, stopping 38 of 39 Tampa Bay shots, and led Florida to a 4-1 victory. Tampa Bay leads the series 3-2, and with the next game being played in Tampa Bay, we’re giving them a 75% chance of winning the series.
Game 4 was the second North Division game of the night. After going to overtime just the day before, these two teams went to triple overtime this time! In the longest game in franchise history, Winnipeg won 4-3 to sweep the series. They move on to face the winner of the Toronto / Montreal series.
In the final game of the night, Minnesota visited Vegas. Facing elimination being down 3-1, the Wild held a 3-1 lead after the first period. The second period was all Vegas, though, as Minnesota only managed 1 shot in the period! But, Vegas only narrowed the gap to 3-2. Neither team scored again until the last minute of the game, when Minnesota scored an empty net goal to put the game away. Vegas now has a 3-2 series lead, and we’re giving them a 79% chance of winning the series.
There are only two games tonight. In the first, Toronto and Montreal face off for the second night in a row. And the late game features Nashville at Carolina, with that series tied 2-2. The home team has won every game in that series, with both games in Nashville going to double overtime. We’re giving Carolina a 62% chance of winning the series.
Yesterday’s Games
East Division, 1 vs. 4
New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
- New York Islanders lead series 3-2
- New York Islanders now have a 70.2% chance of winning the series, up from 38.3%
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
- May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
- May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 29.8% chance of winning (▼31.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼32.3)
- In 7 games: 29.8% (▲0.4)
- NY Islanders has a 70.2% chance of winning (▲31.9)
- In 7 games: 18.3% (▼0.2)
- In 6 games: 52.0% (▲32.2)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division, 1 vs. 4
Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
- Toronto leads series 2-1
- Toronto now has a 83.9% chance of winning the series, up from 67.8%
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
- May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
- May 25: Toronto at Montreal
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Toronto has a 83.9% chance of winning (▲16.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 40.6% (▲17.9)
- In 6 games: 25.8% (▲2.4)
- In 7 games: 17.6% (▼4.0)
- Montreal has a 16.1% chance of winning (▼16.1)
- In 7 games: 9.4% (▼1.9)
- In 6 games: 6.7% (▼6.7)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼7.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Central Division, 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
- Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
- Tampa Bay now has a 74.5% chance of winning the series, down from 86.5%
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
- May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay
- May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Florida has a 25.5% chance of winning (▲12.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 25.5% (▲12.0)
- Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning (▼12.0)
- In 7 games: 18.5% (▲8.7)
- In 6 games: 56.0% (▲26.4)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼47.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division, 2 vs. 3
Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)
- Winnipeg wins series 4-0
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
- May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
- May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)
West Division, 2 vs. 3
Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
- Vegas leads series 3-2
- Vegas now has a 78.5% chance of winning the series, down from 92.1%
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
- May 26: Vegas at Minnesota
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning (▼13.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼63.0)
- In 6 games: 48.9% (▲30.8)
- In 7 games: 29.6% (▲18.7)
- Minnesota has a 21.5% chance of winning (▲13.6)
- In 7 games: 21.5% (▲13.6)
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Games
North Division, 1 vs. 4
Toronto at Montreal
- Toronto leads series 2-1
- Toronto has a 83.9% chance of winning the series
Central Division, 1 vs. 4
Nashville at Carolina
- Series tied 2-2
- Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)
Series tied 2-2
Chances of winning: Carolina 62%, Nashville 38%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
- Nashville: 1506, 15th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Nashville: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 5-2-3
- Nashville: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
- May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
- May 25: Nashville at Carolina
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 33.0%
- In 7 games: 29.3%
- Nashville has a 37.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.0%
- In 6 games: 19.7%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Florida 25%, Tampa Bay 75%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1553, 8th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Florida: 5 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 8-2-0
- Tampa Bay: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
- May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay
- May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 25.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 25.5%
- Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.5%
- In 6 games: 56.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
East Division
Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
New York Islanders lead series 3-2
Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 30%, New York Islanders 70%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
- NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
- New York Islanders: 3-4-3
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
- May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
- May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 29.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 29.8%
- NY Islanders has a 70.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.3%
- In 6 games: 52.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)
Boston wins series 4-1
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Washington: 1572, 4th overall
- Boston: 1557, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Boston: 4 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Washington: 7-2-1
- Boston: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
- May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)
Colorado wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 5 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 3 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 8-2-0
- St. Louis: 6-1-3
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
- May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)
Vegas leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Vegas 79%, Minnesota 21%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
- Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
- Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Vegas: 7-3-0
- Minnesota: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
- May 26: Vegas at Minnesota
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 48.9%
- In 7 games: 29.6%
- Minnesota has a 21.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 21.5%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Toronto leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Toronto 84%, Montreal 16%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
- Montreal: 1467, 21st overall
Head-to-head this year (10 games):
- Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-1-2
- Montreal: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
- May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
- May 25: Toronto at Montreal
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 83.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 40.6%
- In 6 games: 25.8%
- In 7 games: 17.6%
- Montreal has a 16.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.4%
- In 6 games: 6.7%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)
Winnipeg wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
- Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
- Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-3-0
- Winnipeg: 3-7-0
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
- May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
- May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 21.4% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 9.6% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9.2% 4 Carolina Hurricanes 9.0% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 9.0% 6 Washington Capitals 8.0% 7 Florida Panthers 6.5% 8 Edmonton Oilers 6.1% 9 Boston Bruins 5.4% 10 Minnesota Wild 4.3% 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.1% 12 New York Islanders 2.2% 13 Nashville Predators 1.7% 14 St. Louis Blues 1.6% 15 Winnipeg Jets 1.3% 16 Montreal Canadiens 0.7%