To make up for the previous day when there were no overtime games, two games went to overtime last night.  One of those games went to double overtime.  Plus, two series completed!  Clearly, a day filled with 2s.

In the first game of the day yesterday, Nashville defeated Carolina 4 to 3 in double overtime.  That’s the second game in a row that these teams went to double overtime, with Nashville winning both of them.  The series is now tied 2-2, but we’re giving Carolina a 62.3% chance of winning the series, with the teams heading back to Carolina for game 5 tomorrow.

In the second game, Colorado easily handled St. Louis 5-2, sweeping the series in 4 games.  Colorado will keep their spot in the top of the McDonald NHL Power Rankings next time we update them after the first round series have all completed.  They’ll face the winner of the Vegas / Minnesota series.

In the next game, Boston won a hard-fought contest over Washington, 3-1.  Boston never trailed in the game, but it was quite exciting.  Boston wins this series 4 games to 1, and will face the winner of the Islanders / Pittsburgh series.

In the final game of the night, Winnipeg upset Edmonton 5-4 in overtime.  Edmonton clearly dominated the game, leading 4-1 halfway through the third period, but Winnipeg scored 3 times in 3 minutes and 3 seconds to tie the game and send it to overtime.  The last 2 of those goals came just 16 seconds apart.  In overtime, Edmonton had immense pressure on Winnipeg, but Connor Hellebuyck kept his cool and gave Winnipeg a chance, and Nikolaj Ehlers scored to win it for Winnipeg.  The Jets now have a 3-0 series lead, and look for a sweep at home in Game 4.

There are 5 games on the slate tonight.  The Islanders are in Pittsburgh, with that series tied 2-2.  Toronto travels to Montreal to take on the Canadiens, with that series tied 1-1.  Tampa Bay is in Florida, looking to finish off that series which they lead 3-1.  Edmonton is in Winnipeg for the 2nd of back-to-back games, looking to avoid a Jets sweep.  And in the last game of the night, Minnesota visits Vegas, with Vegas holding a 3-1 lead in that series.

Happy Victoria Day!

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina now has a 62.3% chance of winning the series, down from 78.9%

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning (▼16.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼35.0)
  • In 6 games: 33.0% (▲8.2)
  • In 7 games: 29.3% (▲10.3)
• Nashville has a 37.7% chance of winning (▲16.6)
  • In 7 games: 18.0% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 19.7% (▲10.5)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division, 1 vs. 4

Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

• Colorado wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston 3 at Washington 1

• Boston wins series 4-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)

• Winnipeg leads series 3-0
• Winnipeg now has a 91.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.9%

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 8.1% chance of winning (▼15.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼7.7)
  • In 7 games: 8.1% (▼7.3)
• Winnipeg has a 91.9% chance of winning (▲15.0)
  • In 7 games: 4.9% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 13.5% (▼5.3)
  • In 5 games: 18.5% (▼1.2)
  • In 4 games: 55.0% (▲25.9)

Today’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh

• Series tied 2-2
• Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning the series

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto at Montreal

• Series tied 1-1
• Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at Florida

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
• Tampa Bay has an 86.5% chance of winning the series

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Edmonton at Winnipeg

• Winnipeg leads series 3-0
• Winnipeg has a 91.9% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota at Vegas

• Vegas leads series 3-1
• Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 62%, Nashville 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 33.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.3%
• Nashville has a 37.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.0%
  • In 6 games: 19.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Florida 13%, Tampa Bay 87%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 13.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.5%
• Tampa Bay has a 86.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8%
  • In 6 games: 29.6%
  • In 5 games: 47.1%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 62%, New York Islanders 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.3%
  • In 7 games: 29.4%
• NY Islanders has a 38.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.8%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 92%, Minnesota 8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 63.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.1%
  • In 7 games: 10.9%
• Minnesota has a 7.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.9%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 68%, Montreal 32%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 22.7%
  • In 6 games: 23.4%
  • In 7 games: 21.6%
• Montreal has a 32.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.3%
  • In 6 games: 13.4%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 8%, Winnipeg 92%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 8.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
• Winnipeg has a 91.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 4.9%
  • In 6 games: 13.5%
  • In 5 games: 18.5%
  • In 4 games: 55.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%