For the first time during this year’s playoffs, no game went into overtime yesterday. In fact, all four games were pretty lopsided.
In the early game, Tampa Bay defeated Florida 6-2. That gives Tampa Bay a 3-1 series lead, and we’re now giving Tampa Bay an 86.5% chance of winning the series.
In the second game of the day, the New York Islanders surprised Pittsburgh 4-1. The series is tied 2-2, but we’ve still got Pittsburgh as the favourite, giving them a 61.7% chance of winning the series.
In the Saturday night Hockey Night In Canada game, Toronto dominated Montreal, winning 5-1. That ties the series at 1-1, and the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Toronto a 67.8% chance of winning the series. To relive childhood memories of watching these two teams play, I was tempted to have a bath between the first and second periods, and go to bed at the 2nd intermission, but I’m a grown-up now and I can stay up to see the end of the game, but since the game wasn’t too exciting, I didn’t watch the end of it anyways.
In the final game of the night, Vegas shut out Minnesota 4-0. That gives Vegas a 3-1 series lead, and we’ve upped Vegas’ chances of winning the series to 92.1%.
There are two afternoon games today. In the first tilt, just after lunch, Carolina is in Nashville. Carolina has a 2-1 series lead, and we’re giving them a 78.9% chance of winning that series. That game is closely followed by Colorado in St. Louis. Colorado has a 3-0 lead in that series, and we’re giving them a 63.0% chance of a sweep, and a 98.4% chance overall of winning the series.
In the first of the evening games, Boston returns to Washington to try to close out that series. Boston has a 3-1 series lead, and we’re giving them an 86.6% chance of winning the series. The evening finishes off with Edmonton travelling to Winnipeg. Thanks to COVID, Edmonton will not have to face the famous Winnipeg White Out, but we’re still giving Winnipeg a 76.9% chance of winning their series.
Yesterday’s Games
Central Division, 2 vs. 3
Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
- Tampa Bay now has an 86.5% chance of winning the series, up from 68.0%
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
- May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Florida has a 13.5% chance of winning (▼18.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.3)
- In 7 games: 13.5% (▼6.3)
- Tampa Bay has a 86.5% chance of winning (▲18.5)
- In 7 games: 9.8% (▼4.9)
- In 6 games: 29.6% (▲2.7)
- In 5 games: 47.1% (▲20.7)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
East Division, 1 vs. 4
Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
- Series tied 2-2
- Pittsburgh now has a 61.7% chance of winning the series, down from 78.6%
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
- May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
- May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning (▼16.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼35.0)
- In 6 games: 32.3% (▲7.8)
- In 7 games: 29.4% (▲10.3)
- NY Islanders has a 38.3% chance of winning (▲16.9)
- In 7 games: 18.5% (▲6.4)
- In 6 games: 19.8% (▲10.5)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division, 1 vs. 4
Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
- Series tied 1-1
- Toronto now has a 67.8% chance of winning the series, up from 54.9%
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
- May 24: Toronto at Montreal
- May 25: Toronto at Montreal
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning (▲12.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 22.7% (▲7.7)
- In 6 games: 23.4% (▲4.2)
- In 7 games: 21.6% (▲0.9)
- Montreal has a 32.2% chance of winning (▼12.9)
- In 7 games: 11.3% (▲0.5)
- In 6 games: 13.4% (▼1.8)
- In 5 games: 7.5% (▼3.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼8.2)
West Division, 2 vs. 3
Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
- Vegas leads series 3-1
- Vegas now has a 92.1% chance of winning the series, up from 74.3%
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
- May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning (▲17.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 63.0% (▲32.1)
- In 6 games: 18.1% (▼5.5)
- In 7 games: 10.9% (▼8.9)
- Minnesota has a 7.9% chance of winning (▼17.8)
- In 7 games: 7.9% (▼6.4)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼11.4)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Games
Central Division, 1 vs. 4
Carolina at Nashville
- Carolina leads series 2-1
- Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning the series
West Division, 1 vs. 4
Colorado at St. Louis
- Colorado leads series 3-0
- Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning the series
East Division, 2 vs. 3
Boston at Washington
- Boston leads series 3-1
- Boston has an 86.6% chance of winning the series
North Division, 2 vs. 3
Edmonton at Winnipeg
- Winnipeg leads series 2-0
- Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)
Carolina leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
- Nashville: 1506, 15th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Nashville: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 5-2-3
- Nashville: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
- May 23: Carolina at Nashville
- May 25: Nashville at Carolina
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 35.0%
- In 6 games: 24.8%
- In 7 games: 19.0%
- Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 9.2%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
Chances of winning: Florida 13%, Tampa Bay 87%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1553, 8th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Florida: 5 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 8-2-0
- Tampa Bay: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
- May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 13.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 13.5%
- Tampa Bay has a 86.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.8%
- In 6 games: 29.6%
- In 5 games: 47.1%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
East Division
Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Series tied 2-2
Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 62%, New York Islanders 38%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
- NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
- New York Islanders: 3-4-3
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
- May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
- May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 32.3%
- In 7 games: 29.4%
- NY Islanders has a 38.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.5%
- In 6 games: 19.8%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)
Boston leads series 3-1
Chances of winning: Washington 13%, Boston 87%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Washington: 1572, 4th overall
- Boston: 1557, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Boston: 4 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Washington: 7-2-1
- Boston: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
- May 23: Boston at Washington
- May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
- May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Washington has a 13.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 13.4%
- Boston has a 86.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.9%
- In 6 games: 29.6%
- In 5 games: 47.1%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)
Colorado leads series 3-0
Chances of winning: Colorado 98%, St. Louis 2%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 5 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 3 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 8-2-0
- St. Louis: 6-1-3
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
- May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 63.0%
- In 5 games: 26.3%
- In 6 games: 6.1%
- In 7 games: 3.0%
- St. Louis has a 1.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 1.6%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)
Vegas leads series 3-1
Chances of winning: Vegas 92%, Minnesota 8%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
- Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
- Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Vegas: 7-3-0
- Minnesota: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
- May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 63.0%
- In 6 games: 18.1%
- In 7 games: 10.9%
- Minnesota has a 7.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.9%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Series tied 1-1
Chances of winning: Toronto 68%, Montreal 32%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
- Montreal: 1467, 21st overall
Head-to-head this year (10 games):
- Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-1-2
- Montreal: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
- May 24: Toronto at Montreal
- May 25: Toronto at Montreal
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 22.7%
- In 6 games: 23.4%
- In 7 games: 21.6%
- Montreal has a 32.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.3%
- In 6 games: 13.4%
- In 5 games: 7.5%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)
Winnipeg leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Edmonton 23%, Winnipeg 77%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
- Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
- Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-3-0
- Winnipeg: 3-7-0
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
- May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
- May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
- May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 7.7%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
- Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.4%
- In 6 games: 18.8%
- In 5 games: 19.7%
- In 4 games: 29.1%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 21.4% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 9.6% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9.2% 4 Carolina Hurricanes 9.0% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 9.0% 6 Washington Capitals 8.0% 7 Florida Panthers 6.5% 8 Edmonton Oilers 6.1% 9 Boston Bruins 5.4% 10 Minnesota Wild 4.3% 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.1% 12 New York Islanders 2.2% 13 Nashville Predators 1.7% 14 St. Louis Blues 1.6% 15 Winnipeg Jets 1.3% 16 Montreal Canadiens 0.7%