Another day, two more overtime games! And neither of those two games involved Washington and Boston! I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that there are so many overtime games; the McDonald NHL Power Ratings model expects 22.5% of games to be tied at the end of regulation time. But this makes for very exciting playoff games.
After the first three games between Washington and Boston going to overtime, Boston won yesterday 4 to 1. They now lead the series 3 games to 1, and head back to Washington. Even with two games left in Washington and only one in Boston, a 3-1 lead is pretty powerful; we’re giving Boston an 86.6% chance of winning the series. We’ll see if the next game is as close as the first three.
In the second game of the day, and the only one not shown on Canadian TV, Nashville defeated Carolina 5-4 in double overtime! Carolina didn’t help themselves, giving Nashville 7 power-play opportunities, including a 5-on-3 and a power play in the 2nd overtime period. But, it was a close game, neither team going up by more than a goal through the entire game. Nashville needed the home win; even though Nashville is only down 2-1, we’re still giving Carolina a 78.9% chance of winning the series.
In the second overtime game of the day, Winnipeg beat Edmonton 1-0. After losing 9 of their last 12 games of the regular season, including a 7 game losing streak, and losing 7 of the 10 regular season games against Edmonton, the Jets have taken a 2-0 lead in this series. With the teams heading to Winnipeg for the next two games, we’re now giving Winnipeg a 76.9% chance of taking the series.
In the late game, Colorado overpowered St. Louis 5-1. Colorado is the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and they look to be too much for St. Louis. They lead the series 3-0, and we’re now giving them a 98.4% chance of winning the series, including a 63.0% chance of a sweep.
There are four more games on tap today. The big game, of course, is the Hockey Night In Canada game featuring Montreal in Toronto. Montreal won the first game of the series, but we’re still giving Toronto a 54.9% chance of taking the series.
Yesterday’s Games
East Division, 2 vs. 3
Washington 1 at Boston 4
- Boston leads series 3-1
- Boston now has an 86.6% chance of winning the series, up from 68.5%
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
- May 23: Boston at Washington
- May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
- May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Washington has a 13.4% chance of winning (▼18.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.0)
- In 7 games: 13.4% (▼6.1)
- Boston has a 86.6% chance of winning (▲18.1)
- In 7 games: 9.9% (▼5.0)
- In 6 games: 29.6% (▲2.3)
- In 5 games: 47.1% (▲20.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Central Division, 1 vs. 4
Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
- Carolina leads series 2-1
- Carolina now has a 78.9% chance of winning the series, down from 89.2%
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
- May 23: Carolina at Nashville
- May 25: Nashville at Carolina
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning (▼10.3)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼32.4)
- In 5 games: 35.0% (▲4.0)
- In 6 games: 24.8% (▲9.7)
- In 7 games: 19.0% (▲8.3)
- Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning (▲10.3)
- In 7 games: 11.8% (▲5.1)
- In 6 games: 9.2% (▲5.1)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division, 2 vs. 3
Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
- Winnipeg leads series 2-0
- Winnipeg now has a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up from 54.7%
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
- May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
- May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
- May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning (▼22.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼10.9)
- In 6 games: 7.7% (▼7.8)
- In 7 games: 15.4% (▼3.6)
- Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning (▲22.2)
- In 7 games: 9.4% (▼2.3)
- In 6 games: 18.8% (▲1.3)
- In 5 games: 19.7% (▲5.7)
- In 4 games: 29.1% (▲17.7)
West Division, 1 vs. 4
Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
- Colorado leads series 3-0
- Colorado now has a 98.4% chance of winning the series, up from 93.1%
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
- May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning (▲5.3)
- In 4 games: 63.0% (▲24.6)
- In 5 games: 26.3% (▼6.0)
- In 6 games: 6.1% (▼7.7)
- In 7 games: 3.0% (▼5.6)
- St. Louis has a 1.6% chance of winning (▼5.3)
- In 7 games: 1.6% (▼2.8)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼2.5)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Games
Central Division, 2 vs. 3
Florida at Tampa Bay
- Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
- Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning the series
East Division, 1 vs. 4
Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
- Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning the series
North Division, 1 vs. 4
Montreal at Toronto
- Montreal leads series 1-0
- Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning the series
West Division, 2 vs. 3
Vegas at Minnesota
- Vegas leads series 2-1
- Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)
Carolina leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
- Nashville: 1506, 15th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Nashville: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 5-2-3
- Nashville: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
- May 23: Carolina at Nashville
- May 25: Nashville at Carolina
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 35.0%
- In 6 games: 24.8%
- In 7 games: 19.0%
- Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 9.2%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Florida 32%, Tampa Bay 68%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1553, 8th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Florida: 5 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 8-2-0
- Tampa Bay: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
- May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
- May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 32.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.3%
- In 7 games: 19.8%
- Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.7%
- In 6 games: 26.9%
- In 5 games: 26.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
East Division
Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 79%, New York Islanders 21%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
- NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
- New York Islanders: 3-4-3
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
- May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 35.0%
- In 6 games: 24.5%
- In 7 games: 19.1%
- NY Islanders has a 21.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.1%
- In 6 games: 9.3%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)
Boston leads series 3-1
Chances of winning: Washington 13%, Boston 87%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Washington: 1572, 4th overall
- Boston: 1557, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Boston: 4 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Washington: 7-2-1
- Boston: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
- May 23: Boston at Washington
- May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
- May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Washington has a 13.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 13.4%
- Boston has a 86.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.9%
- In 6 games: 29.6%
- In 5 games: 47.1%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)
Colorado leads series 3-0
Chances of winning: Colorado 98%, St. Louis 2%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 5 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 3 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 8-2-0
- St. Louis: 6-1-3
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
- May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 63.0%
- In 5 games: 26.3%
- In 6 games: 6.1%
- In 7 games: 3.0%
- St. Louis has a 1.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 1.6%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)
Vegas leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Vegas 74%, Minnesota 26%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
- Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
- Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Vegas: 7-3-0
- Minnesota: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
- May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
- May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 30.9%
- In 6 games: 23.6%
- In 7 games: 19.8%
- Minnesota has a 25.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.3%
- In 6 games: 11.4%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Montreal leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Toronto 55%, Montreal 45%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
- Montreal: 1467, 21st overall
Head-to-head this year (10 games):
- Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-1-2
- Montreal: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal at Toronto
- May 24: Toronto at Montreal
- May 25: Toronto at Montreal
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 15.0%
- In 6 games: 19.2%
- In 7 games: 20.7%
- Montreal has a 45.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.8%
- In 6 games: 15.2%
- In 5 games: 11.0%
- In 4 games: 8.2%
Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)
Winnipeg leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Edmonton 23%, Winnipeg 77%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
- Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
- Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-3-0
- Winnipeg: 3-7-0
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
- May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
- May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
- May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 7.7%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
- Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.4%
- In 6 games: 18.8%
- In 5 games: 19.7%
- In 4 games: 29.1%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 21.4% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 9.6% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9.2% 4 Carolina Hurricanes 9.0% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 9.0% 6 Washington Capitals 8.0% 7 Florida Panthers 6.5% 8 Edmonton Oilers 6.1% 9 Boston Bruins 5.4% 10 Minnesota Wild 4.3% 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.1% 12 New York Islanders 2.2% 13 Nashville Predators 1.7% 14 St. Louis Blues 1.6% 15 Winnipeg Jets 1.3% 16 Montreal Canadiens 0.7%