More overtime! In the first game of the day yesterday, Florida came back from a 2-goal deficit in the third to tie the game, then won it in overtime. Down 2-0 and playing on the road, Florida desperately needed the win, and they got it. Tampa Bay is still favoured to win the series, but only with a 68.0% chance now, down from 83.6%.
The second game of the day was probably the day’s best. In a good hard-nosed, physical game, Pittsburgh edged the Islanders 5-4. At one point in the 3rd period, each team had 5 players in the penalty box! It wasn’t a dirty game, just very physical — good playoff hockey! Pittsburgh takes a 2-1 series lead, and now has a 78.6% chance of winning the series.
Ah, Montreal and Toronto! What Canadian hockey fan (and we’re all hockey fans!) wouldn’t love to see a game between these two great rivals. And what a game! Montreal broke a 1-1 tie late in the third on a short-handed goal by Paul Byron, who scored from his knees after getting tripped on a breakaway, a beautiful goal! Carey Price was spectacular in the net. Toronto has a really good team (and pretty cheesy mustaches, yuck), but they haven’t been able to beat Montreal in the playoffs since May 2nd, 1967! Their second matchup comes Saturday night; good old Hockey Night In Canada, Saturday night, Montreal vs. Toronto!!! We’re still favouring Toronto to win the series (54.9%), but it should continue to be a great series.
In the nightcap, Vegas scored 5 unanswered goals to beat Minnesota 5-2. I’d say it was a yawner, but that’s only because I was tired and went to bed before the game was over. We’re now giving Vegas a 74.3% chance of winning the series.
In tonight’s games, Washington visits Boston, down 2-1. The previous three games in the series have all gone to overtime, so we’re expecting another close game! Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning the series, so Washington really needs this road win. Carolina travels to Nashville, up 2-0. Nashville really needs to turn things around — we’re giving Carolina an 89.2% chance of winning the series. Winnipeg plays in Edmonton, with a 1-0 lead in that series. We’re seeing this a close series, giving Winnipeg a slight edge at 54.7%. And in the late game, top-ranked Colorado plays in St. Louis. Colorado has a 2-0 lead in the series, and the McDonald NHL Power Rating team gives them a 93.1% chance of winning the series.
Yesterday’s Games
Central Division, 2 vs. 3
Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
- Tampa Bay now has a 68.0% chance of winning the series, down from 83.6%
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
- May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
- May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Florida has a 32.0% chance of winning (▲15.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.3% (▲7.3)
- In 7 games: 19.8% (▲8.4)
- Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning (▼15.6)
- In 7 games: 14.7% (▲6.3)
- In 6 games: 26.9% (▲8.7)
- In 5 games: 26.4% (▲4.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼35.4)
East Division, 1 vs. 4
Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
- Pittsburgh now has a 78.6% chance of winning, up from 59.4%
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
- May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning (▲19.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 35.0% (▲17.2)
- In 6 games: 24.5% (▲4.1)
- In 7 games: 19.1% (▼2.0)
- NY Islanders has a 21.4% chance of winning (▼19.2)
- In 7 games: 12.1% (▼1.1)
- In 6 games: 9.3% (▼7.7)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼10.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division, 1 vs. 4
Montreal 2 at Toronto 1
- Montreal leads series 1-0
- Toronto now has a 54.9% chance of winning, down from 75.3%
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal at Toronto
- May 24: Toronto at Montreal
- May 25: Toronto at Montreal
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning (▼20.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼17.4)
- In 5 games: 15.0% (▼9.7)
- In 6 games: 19.2% (▲1.5)
- In 7 games: 20.7% (▲5.3)
- Montreal has a 45.1% chance of winning (▲20.4)
- In 7 games: 10.8% (▲2.7)
- In 6 games: 15.2% (▲6.2)
- In 5 games: 11.0% (▲5.9)
- In 4 games: 8.2% (▲5.6)
West Division, 2 vs. 3
Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- Vegas leads series 2-1
- Vegas now has a 74.3% chance of winning, up from 52.7%
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
- May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
- May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning (▲21.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 30.9% (▲16.5)
- In 6 games: 23.6% (▲5.6)
- In 7 games: 19.8% (▼0.4)
- Minnesota has a 25.7% chance of winning (▼21.6)
- In 7 games: 14.3% (▼0.2)
- In 6 games: 11.4% (▼8.1)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼13.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Games
East Division, 2 vs. 3
Washington at Boston
- Boston leads series 2-1
- Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning the series
Central Division, 1 vs. 4
Carolina at Nashville
- Carolina leads series 2-0
- Carolina has an 89.2% chance of winning the series
North Division, 2 vs. 3
Winnipeg at Edmonton
- Winnipeg leads series 1-0
- Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning the series
West Division, 1 vs. 4
Colorado at St. Louis
- Colorado leads series 2-0
- Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)
Carolina leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Carolina 89%, Nashville 11%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
- Nashville: 1506, 15th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Nashville: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 5-2-3
- Nashville: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina at Nashville
- May 23: Carolina at Nashville
- May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 32.4%
- In 5 games: 31.0%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 10.7%
- Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.7%
- In 6 games: 4.1%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Florida 32%, Tampa Bay 68%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1553, 8th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Florida: 5 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 8-2-0
- Tampa Bay: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
- May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
- May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 32.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.3%
- In 7 games: 19.8%
- Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.7%
- In 6 games: 26.9%
- In 5 games: 26.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
East Division
Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 79%, New York Islanders 21%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
- NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
- New York Islanders: 3-4-3
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
- May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 35.0%
- In 6 games: 24.5%
- In 7 games: 19.1%
- NY Islanders has a 21.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.1%
- In 6 games: 9.3%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)
Boston leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Washington 31%, Boston 69%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Washington: 1572, 4th overall
- Boston: 1557, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Boston: 4 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Washington: 7-2-1
- Boston: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- May 21: Washington at Boston
- May 23: Boston at Washington
- May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
- May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.0%
- In 7 games: 19.5%
- Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.9%
- In 6 games: 27.3%
- In 5 games: 26.3%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)
Colorado leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Colorado 93%, St. Louis 7%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 5 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 3 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 8-2-0
- St. Louis: 6-1-3
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 38.4%
- In 5 games: 32.3%
- In 6 games: 13.8%
- In 7 games: 8.6%
- St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 4.4%
- In 6 games: 2.5%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)
Vegas leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Vegas 74%, Minnesota 26%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
- Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
- Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Vegas: 7-3-0
- Minnesota: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
- May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
- May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 30.9%
- In 6 games: 23.6%
- In 7 games: 19.8%
- Minnesota has a 25.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.3%
- In 6 games: 11.4%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Montreal leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Toronto 55%, Montreal 45%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
- Montreal: 1467, 21st overall
Head-to-head this year (10 games):
- Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-1-2
- Montreal: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal at Toronto
- May 24: Toronto at Montreal
- May 25: Toronto at Montreal
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 15.0%
- In 6 games: 19.2%
- In 7 games: 20.7%
- Montreal has a 45.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.8%
- In 6 games: 15.2%
- In 5 games: 11.0%
- In 4 games: 8.2%
Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)
Winnipeg leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Edmonton 45%, Winnipeg 55%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
- Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
- Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-3-0
- Winnipeg: 3-7-0
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
- May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
- May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton
Simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 10.9%
- In 6 games: 15.5%
- In 7 games: 19.0%
- Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.7%
- In 6 games: 17.5%
- In 5 games: 14.0%
- In 4 games: 11.4%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 21.4% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 9.6% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9.2% 4 Carolina Hurricanes 9.0% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 9.0% 6 Washington Capitals 8.0% 7 Florida Panthers 6.5% 8 Edmonton Oilers 6.1% 9 Boston Bruins 5.4% 10 Minnesota Wild 4.3% 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.1% 12 New York Islanders 2.2% 13 Nashville Predators 1.7% 14 St. Louis Blues 1.6% 15 Winnipeg Jets 1.3% 16 Montreal Canadiens 0.7%