Another overtime playoff game! Boston and Washington went to overtime again, as they have in all 3 games of their series! This time, it went into double overtime, with Boston winning it after a miscommunication between Washington goalie Ilya Samsonov and defenseman Justin Schultz gave the Bruins’ Craig Smith an easy goal. Boston leads that series 2-1, and are now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite to win the series with a 68.5% chance.
In the second game of the night, Carolina defeated Nashville 3-0. The game was much closer than the score indicated, as Carolina moved ahead 2-0 with a last minute empty-net goal, then scored again before time was out. Nashville faces a tough battle heading home, as we’re now giving Carolina an 89.2% chance of winning the series.
There was yet another game that was much closer than the score showed, with Winnipeg beating Edmonton 4-1. Edmonton was down 2-1 with a couple minutes left, and were putting huge pressure on Winnipeg, but after they pulled their goalie, Winnipeg scored a couple empty netters. That was the first game of the series, and we’re now giving Winnipeg a 54.7% chance of winning the series.
In the night’s final game, Colorado defeated St. Louis 6-3. Although Colorado dominated, the score was 4-3 when St. Louis pulled their goalie, and Colorado quickly scored a couple empty netters to put the game away. Nathan MacKinnon got a hat trick in the Colorado victory. The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives top-ranked Colorado a 93.1% chance of winning the series.
There are four games on the slate again tonight. First up, Florida visits Tampa Bay, down 2-0 and needing a road victory to keep themselves competitive. Pittsburgh is in New York to face the Islanders. That series is tied 1-1, and we’re giving Pittsburgh a slight edge in the series. The highlight of the night will be Montreal visiting Toronto for the first game of their series. It will be a tough series for Montreal, but their winning tradition and Toronto’s non-winning tradition will make it interesting. Still, we’re giving Toronto a 75.3% chance of winning the series. And in the last game, Vegas travels to Minnesota. Their series is tied 1-1, and it’s pretty much a coin flip who’s going to win it, as we’re giving Vegas a slight 52.7% / 47.3% edge.
Yesterday’s Games
East Division, 2 vs. 3
Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- Boston leads series 2-1
- Boston now has a 68.5% chance of winning the series, up from 49.7%
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- May 21: Washington at Boston
- May 23: Boston at Washington
- May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
- May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning (▼18.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼13.5)
- In 6 games: 12.0% (▼5.1)
- In 7 games: 19.5% (▼0.2)
- Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning (▲18.8)
- In 7 games: 14.9% (▲0.1)
- In 6 games: 27.3% (▲6.6)
- In 5 games: 26.3% (▲12.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Central Division, 1 vs. 4
Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- Carolina leads series 2-0
- Carolina now has a 89.2% chance of winning the series, up from 78.9%
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina at Nashville
- May 23: Carolina at Nashville
- May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning (▲10.3)
- In 4 games: 32.4% (▲11.3)
- In 5 games: 31.0% (▲4.6)
- In 6 games: 15.1% (▼1.9)
- In 7 games: 10.7% (▼3.7)
- Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning (▼10.3)
- In 7 games: 6.7% (▼2.3)
- In 6 games: 4.1% (▼4.4)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼3.7)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division, 2 vs. 3
Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- Winnipeg leads series 1-0
- Winnipeg now has a 54.7% chance of winning, up from 33.7%
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
- May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
- May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton
New simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning (▼21.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.9)
- In 5 games: 10.9% (▼9.9)
- In 6 games: 15.5% (▼1.0)
- In 7 games: 19.0% (▲2.9)
- Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning (▲21.0)
- In 7 games: 11.7% (▲1.7)
- In 6 games: 17.5% (▲5.6)
- In 5 games: 14.0% (▲6.5)
- In 4 games: 11.4% (▲7.1)
West Division, 1 vs. 4
St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- Colorado leads series 2-0
- Colorado now has a 93.1% chance of winning, up from 85.8%
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning (▲7.3)
- In 4 games: 38.4% (▲11.4)
- In 5 games: 32.3% (▲2.5)
- In 6 games: 13.8% (▼2.9)
- In 7 games: 8.6% (▼3.8)
- St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning (▼7.3)
- In 7 games: 4.4% (▼2.0)
- In 6 games: 2.5% (▼3.1)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼2.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Games
Central Division, 2 vs. 3
Florida at Tampa Bay
- Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
- Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning the series
East Division, 1 vs. 4
Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- Series tied 1-1
- Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning the series
North Division, 1 vs. 4
Montreal at Toronto
- Series tied 0-0
- Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning the series
West Division, 2 vs. 3
Vegas at Minnesota
- Series tied 1-1
- Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)
Carolina leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Carolina 89%, Nashville 11%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
- Nashville: 1506, 15th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Nashville: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 5-2-3
- Nashville: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina at Nashville
- May 23: Carolina at Nashville
- May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 32.4%
- In 5 games: 31.0%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 10.7%
- Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.7%
- In 6 games: 4.1%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Florida 16%, Tampa Bay 84%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1553, 8th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Florida: 5 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 8-2-0
- Tampa Bay: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
- May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
- May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
- May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 5.0%
- In 7 games: 11.4%
- Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.4%
- In 6 games: 18.2%
- In 5 games: 21.6%
- In 4 games: 35.4%
East Division
Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Series tied 1-1
Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 59%, New York Islanders 41%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
- NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
- New York Islanders: 3-4-3
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
- May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 17.8%
- In 6 games: 20.4%
- In 7 games: 21.1%
- NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 13.2%
- In 6 games: 17.0%
- In 5 games: 10.5%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)
Boston leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Washington 31%, Boston 69%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Washington: 1572, 4th overall
- Boston: 1557, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Boston: 4 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Washington: 7-2-1
- Boston: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- May 21: Washington at Boston
- May 23: Boston at Washington
- May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
- May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.0%
- In 7 games: 19.5%
- Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.9%
- In 6 games: 27.3%
- In 5 games: 26.3%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)
Colorado leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Colorado 93%, St. Louis 7%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 5 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 3 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 8-2-0
- St. Louis: 6-1-3
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 38.4%
- In 5 games: 32.3%
- In 6 games: 13.8%
- In 7 games: 8.6%
- St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 4.4%
- In 6 games: 2.5%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)
Series tied 1-1
Chances of winning: Vegas 53%, Minnesota 47%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
- Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
- Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Vegas: 7-3-0
- Minnesota: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
- May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
- May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
- May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 14.5%
- In 6 games: 18.0%
- In 7 games: 20.2%
- Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.5%
- In 6 games: 19.5%
- In 5 games: 13.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
- Montreal: 1467, 21st overall
Head-to-head this year (10 games):
- Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-1-2
- Montreal: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal at Toronto
- May 22: Montreal at Toronto
- May 24: Toronto at Montreal
- May 25: Toronto at Montreal
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.4%
- In 5 games: 24.7%
- In 6 games: 17.7%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
- Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.1%
- In 6 games: 9.0%
- In 5 games: 5.1%
- In 4 games: 2.6%
Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)
Winnipeg leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Edmonton 45%, Winnipeg 55%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
- Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
- Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-3-0
- Winnipeg: 3-7-0
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
- May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
- May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton
Simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 10.9%
- In 6 games: 15.5%
- In 7 games: 19.0%
- Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.7%
- In 6 games: 17.5%
- In 5 games: 14.0%
- In 4 games: 11.4%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 21.4% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 9.6% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9.2% 4 Carolina Hurricanes 9.0% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 9.0% 6 Washington Capitals 8.0% 7 Florida Panthers 6.5% 8 Edmonton Oilers 6.1% 9 Boston Bruins 5.4% 10 Minnesota Wild 4.3% 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.1% 12 New York Islanders 2.2% 13 Nashville Predators 1.7% 14 St. Louis Blues 1.6% 15 Winnipeg Jets 1.3% 16 Montreal Canadiens 0.7%