Another overtime playoff game! Boston and Washington went to overtime again, as they have in all 3 games of their series! This time, it went into double overtime, with Boston winning it after a miscommunication between Washington goalie Ilya Samsonov and defenseman Justin Schultz gave the Bruins’ Craig Smith an easy goal. Boston leads that series 2-1, and are now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite to win the series with a 68.5% chance.

In the second game of the night, Carolina defeated Nashville 3-0. The game was much closer than the score indicated, as Carolina moved ahead 2-0 with a last minute empty-net goal, then scored again before time was out. Nashville faces a tough battle heading home, as we’re now giving Carolina an 89.2% chance of winning the series.

There was yet another game that was much closer than the score showed, with Winnipeg beating Edmonton 4-1. Edmonton was down 2-1 with a couple minutes left, and were putting huge pressure on Winnipeg, but after they pulled their goalie, Winnipeg scored a couple empty netters. That was the first game of the series, and we’re now giving Winnipeg a 54.7% chance of winning the series.

In the night’s final game, Colorado defeated St. Louis 6-3. Although Colorado dominated, the score was 4-3 when St. Louis pulled their goalie, and Colorado quickly scored a couple empty netters to put the game away. Nathan MacKinnon got a hat trick in the Colorado victory. The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives top-ranked Colorado a 93.1% chance of winning the series.

There are four games on the slate again tonight. First up, Florida visits Tampa Bay, down 2-0 and needing a road victory to keep themselves competitive. Pittsburgh is in New York to face the Islanders. That series is tied 1-1, and we’re giving Pittsburgh a slight edge in the series. The highlight of the night will be Montreal visiting Toronto for the first game of their series. It will be a tough series for Montreal, but their winning tradition and Toronto’s non-winning tradition will make it interesting. Still, we’re giving Toronto a 75.3% chance of winning the series. And in the last game, Vegas travels to Minnesota. Their series is tied 1-1, and it’s pretty much a coin flip who’s going to win it, as we’re giving Vegas a slight 52.7% / 47.3% edge.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)

Boston leads series 2-1
Boston now has a 68.5% chance of winning the series, up from 49.7%

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington at Boston
May 23: Boston at Washington
May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning (▼18.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼13.5)
- In 6 games: 12.0% (▼5.1)
- In 7 games: 19.5% (▼0.2)
Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning (▲18.8)
- In 7 games: 14.9% (▲0.1)
- In 6 games: 27.3% (▲6.6)
- In 5 games: 26.3% (▲12.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville 0 at Carolina 3

Carolina leads series 2-0
Carolina now has a 89.2% chance of winning the series, up from 78.9%

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina at Nashville
May 23: Carolina at Nashville
May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning (▲10.3)
- In 4 games: 32.4% (▲11.3)
- In 5 games: 31.0% (▲4.6)
- In 6 games: 15.1% (▼1.9)
- In 7 games: 10.7% (▼3.7)
Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning (▼10.3)
- In 7 games: 6.7% (▼2.3)
- In 6 games: 4.1% (▼4.4)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼3.7)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1

Winnipeg leads series 1-0
Winnipeg now has a 54.7% chance of winning, up from 33.7%

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

New simulation results:

Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning (▼21.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.9)
- In 5 games: 10.9% (▼9.9)
- In 6 games: 15.5% (▼1.0)
- In 7 games: 19.0% (▲2.9)
Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning (▲21.0)
- In 7 games: 11.7% (▲1.7)
- In 6 games: 17.5% (▲5.6)
- In 5 games: 14.0% (▲6.5)
- In 4 games: 11.4% (▲7.1)

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6

Colorado leads series 2-0
Colorado now has a 93.1% chance of winning, up from 85.8%

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning (▲7.3)
- In 4 games: 38.4% (▲11.4)
- In 5 games: 32.3% (▲2.5)
- In 6 games: 13.8% (▼2.9)
- In 7 games: 8.6% (▼3.8)
St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning (▼7.3)
- In 7 games: 4.4% (▼2.0)
- In 6 games: 2.5% (▼3.1)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼2.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning the series

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh at New York Islanders

Series tied 1-1
Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning the series

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Toronto

Series tied 0-0
Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas at Minnesota

Series tied 1-1
Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 89%, Nashville 11%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina at Nashville
May 23: Carolina at Nashville
May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 32.4%
- In 5 games: 31.0%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 10.7%
Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.7%
- In 6 games: 4.1%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Florida 16%, Tampa Bay 84%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 5.0%
- In 7 games: 11.4%
Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.4%
- In 6 games: 18.2%
- In 5 games: 21.6%
- In 4 games: 35.4%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 17.8%
- In 6 games: 20.4%
- In 7 games: 21.1%
NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 13.2%
- In 6 games: 17.0%
- In 5 games: 10.5%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Washington 31%, Boston 69%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington at Boston
May 23: Boston at Washington
May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.0%
- In 7 games: 19.5%
Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.9%
- In 6 games: 27.3%
- In 5 games: 26.3%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 93%, St. Louis 7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 38.4%
- In 5 games: 32.3%
- In 6 games: 13.8%
- In 7 games: 8.6%
St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 4.4%
- In 6 games: 2.5%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 53%, Minnesota 47%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 14.5%
- In 6 games: 18.0%
- In 7 games: 20.2%
Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.5%
- In 6 games: 19.5%
- In 5 games: 13.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal at Toronto
May 22: Montreal at Toronto
May 24: Toronto at Montreal
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.4%
- In 5 games: 24.7%
- In 6 games: 17.7%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.1%
- In 6 games: 9.0%
- In 5 games: 5.1%
- In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 45%, Winnipeg 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 10.9%
- In 6 games: 15.5%
- In 7 games: 19.0%
Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.7%
- In 6 games: 17.5%
- In 5 games: 14.0%
- In 4 games: 11.4%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

Well, the regular season has finally come to an end. This week, there have been two meaningless games, both between Vancouver and Calgary, neither of which made the playoffs. The Canucks won the first game at home, then the next day, Calgary won in Calgary. Neither game was very exciting or interesting, but the season is done. With the split, Calgary lost a rating point and Vancouver gained one, but neither team’s overall position in the rankings changed.

These ratings do not include any of the playoff games that have taken place before the end of the regular season.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1616)

Record: 39-13-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: ✔
Winning the Stanley Cup: 21%

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins (1575)

Record: 37-16-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Vegas Golden Knights (1575)

Record: 40-14-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

4. Washington Capitals (1572)

Record: 36-15-5, 2nd in East Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

5. Carolina Hurricanes (1565)

Record: 36-12-8, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from 3 days ago.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1616
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1575
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1575
 4       Washington Capitals           1572
 5       Carolina Hurricanes           1565
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs           1560
 7       Boston Bruins                 1557
 8       Florida Panthers              1553
 9       Minnesota Wild                1550
10       Edmonton Oilers               1548
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           1539
12       New York Islanders            1523
13       St. Louis Blues               1517
14       New York Rangers              1515
15       Nashville Predators           1506
16       Dallas Stars                  1495
17       Winnipeg Jets                 1494
18       Philadelphia Flyers           1479
19       Calgary Flames                1476 (▼1)
20       Ottawa Senators               1469
21       Montreal Canadiens            1467
22       Arizona Coyotes               1464
23       Vancouver Canucks             1448 (▲1)
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1446
25       Los Angeles Kings             1444
26       Detroit Red Wings             1443
27       New Jersey Devils             1441
28       San Jose Sharks               1440
29       Columbus Blue Jackets         1430
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1415
31       Buffalo Sabres                1408

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           —

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins                 —
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild                —
 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               —
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Nashville Predators           ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —

East Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) New York Islanders            ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               ✔
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            ✔
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 ✔
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔

Colorado has won the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           10%
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           9%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           9%
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          9%
 6       Washington Capitals           8%
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               6%
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              6%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5%
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4%
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
12 (tie) Nashville Predators           2%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues               2%
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1%
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
17 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
17 (tie) New York Rangers              —
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
17 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —