There were 3 more close games last night, although none went to overtime.  Pittsburgh beat the Islanders 2-1 to even their series at 1 game apiece.  The series now moves to New York for the next two games, and we’re giving Pittsburgh a 59% chance of winning the series.  Tampa Bay beat Florida 3-1, but it was closer than a 2-goal game, as Tampa Bay scored their 3rd goal with 1:25 left.  The series now moves to Tampa Bay, and with a 2-0 lead in the series, we’re giving the Lightning an 84% chance of winning the series.  In the late game, Vegas beat Minnesota 3-1 behind a standout performance by Golden Knights’ goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.  Again, it was 1 one-goal game until Vegas scored with 53 seconds left.  That series is now even and moves to Minnesota for the next two games, and we’re giving Vegas a 53% chance of winning it.

This afternoon, the regular season finally comes to an end, with Vancouver travelling to Calgary.  They played yesterday, with Vancouver winning in a snoozer 4-2.  But, once this game is done, the North Division can start their playoffs, and tonight Winnipeg travels to Edmonton to start their series.

There are four playoff games on tap tonight.  Washington visits Boston — that series is tied 1-1, and we’re giving Washington the slightest of edges with a 50.4% chance of victory!  Nashville travels to Carolina, and Nashville needs to win to even the series.  We’re currently giving Carolina a 79% chance of winning the series.  In the aforementioned North Division matchup, we’re giving Edmonton a 66% chance of winning the series.  The final game of the night sees St. Louis visiting Colorado.  Colorado, who are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings,  leads the series 1-0, and we’re giving them an 86% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2

• Series tied 1-1
• Pittsburgh now has a 59.4% chance of winning the series, up from 44.8%

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning (▲14.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8% (▲7.1)
  • In 6 games: 20.4% (▲5.2)
  • In 7 games: 21.1% (▲2.3)
• NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning (▼14.6)
  • In 7 games: 13.2% (▲1.5)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▼0.6)
  • In 5 games: 10.5% (▼3.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼11.6)

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
• Tampa Bay now has a 83.6% chance of winning the series, up from 64.9%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning (▼18.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼7.5)
  • In 6 games: 5.0% (▼6.7)
  • In 7 games: 11.4% (▼4.5)
• Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning (▲18.7)
  • In 7 games: 8.4% (▼3.5)
  • In 6 games: 18.2% (▼1.4)
  • In 5 games: 21.6% (▲4.0)
  • In 4 games: 35.4% (▲19.5)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas now has a 52.7% chance of winning the series, up from 37.8%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning (▲14.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 18.0% (▲5.3)
  • In 7 games: 20.2% (▲3.3)
• Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning (▼14.9)
  • In 7 games: 14.5% (▲2.5)
  • In 6 games: 19.5% (▲0.5)
  • In 5 games: 13.4% (▼3.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼14.5)

Today’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington at Boston

• Series tied 1-1
• Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville at Carolina

• Carolina leads series 1-0
• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning the series

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg at Edmonton

• Series tied 0-0
• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning the series

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis at Colorado

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado has a 85.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville at Carolina
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 21.1%
  • In 5 games: 26.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.4%
• Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.0%
  • In 6 games: 8.5%
  • In 5 games: 3.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Florida 16%, Tampa Bay 84%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 5.0%
  • In 7 games: 11.4%
• Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.4%
  • In 6 games: 18.2%
  • In 5 games: 21.6%
  • In 4 games: 35.4%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.4%
  • In 7 games: 21.1%
• NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.2%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Washington 50%, Boston 50%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• Boston has a 49.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.7%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 86%, St. Louis 14%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 85.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 27.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.7%
  • In 7 games: 12.4%
• St. Louis has a 14.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 6.4%
  • In 6 games: 5.6%
  • In 5 games: 2.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 53%, Minnesota 47%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 18.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.2%
• Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 13.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal at Toronto
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.9%
  • In 5 games: 20.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.5%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.0%
  • In 6 games: 11.9%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 4.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%