Yet another overtime game last night! There are clearly many closely-matched series in the first round of the playoffs this year. Last night, it was Boston defeating Washington. Both of their games have gone into overtime, and the series is now tied at 1.
The other two games, both featuring first-place teams against fourth-place teams, were strong victories for the top teams. Carolina beat Nashville 5-2, putting them up 1-0 in the series, and Colorado beat St. Louis 4-1, also giving them a 1-0 series lead.
Tonight’s games all feature games where the lower-placed teams lead their series against higher-placed teams. The Islanders play in Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay plays in Florida, and Minnesota plays in Vegas. Pittsburgh, Florida, and Vegas all need a win, otherwise they’ll be down 2-0 heading on the road for the next 2 games.
Back in the regular season, there were NO games last night. I think this was the first time since the season began. There are two games remaining; Calgary is in Vancouver this afternoon, and tomorrow afternoon they switch stadiums and Vancouver plays in Calgary. That will wind up the regular season, and the playoffs in the North Division will start later tomorrow night, with Winnipeg facing Edmonton.
Yesterday’s Games
East Division, 2 vs. 3
Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- Series tied 1-1
- Washington now has a 50.4% chance of winning the series, down from 70.5%
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington at Boston
- May 21: Washington at Boston
- May 23: Boston at Washington
- May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
- May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning (▼20.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼15.6)
- In 5 games: 13.5% (▼9.5)
- In 6 games: 17.2% (▲0.9)
- In 7 games: 19.6% (▲4.0)
- Boston has a 49.6% chance of winning (▲20.1)
- In 7 games: 14.8% (▲3.0)
- In 6 games: 20.7% (▲8.6)
- In 5 games: 14.2% (▲8.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Central Division, 1 vs. 4
Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- Carolina leads series 1-0
- Carolina now has a 78.9% chance of winning the series, up from 67.0%
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville at Carolina
- May 21: Carolina at Nashville
- May 23: Carolina at Nashville
- May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning (▲11.9)
- In 4 games: 21.1% (▲7.6)
- In 5 games: 26.4% (▲5.5)
- In 6 games: 17.0% (▲0.5)
- In 7 games: 14.4% (▼1.7)
- Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning (▼11.9)
- In 7 games: 9.0% (▼0.9)
- In 6 games: 8.5% (▼3.2)
- In 5 games: 3.7% (▼3.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.1)
West Division, 1 vs. 4
St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- Colorado leads series 1-0
- Colorado now has a 85.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.6%
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
- May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Colorado has a 85.9% chance of winning (▲9.3)
- In 4 games: 27.0% (▲8.4)
- In 5 games: 29.8% (▲4.4)
- In 6 games: 16.7% (▼0.8)
- In 7 games: 12.4% (▼2.7)
- St. Louis has a 14.1% chance of winning (▼9.3)
- In 7 games: 6.3% (▼1.3)
- In 6 games: 5.6% (▼2.9)
- In 5 games: 2.2% (▼2.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼2.4)
Today’s Games
East Division, 1 vs. 4
New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
- Islanders lead series 1-0
- Islanders have a 55.2% chance of winning the series
Central Division, 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay at Florida
- Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
- Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning the series
West Division, 2 vs. 3
Minnesota at Vegas
- Minnesota leads series 1-0
- Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)
Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
- Nashville: 1506, 15th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Nashville: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 5-2-3
- Nashville: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville at Carolina
- May 21: Carolina at Nashville
- May 23: Carolina at Nashville
- May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 21.1%
- In 5 games: 26.4%
- In 6 games: 17.0%
- In 7 games: 14.4%
- Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.0%
- In 6 games: 8.5%
- In 5 games: 3.7%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Chances of winning: Florida 35%, Tampa Bay 65%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1553, 8th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Florida: 5 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 8-2-0
- Tampa Bay: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay at Florida
- May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
- May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
- May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
- May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 34.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 7.5%
- In 6 games: 11.7%
- In 7 games: 15.8%
- Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.9%
- In 6 games: 19.6%
- In 5 games: 17.6%
- In 4 games: 16.0%
East Division
Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 45%, New York Islanders 55%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
- NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
- New York Islanders: 3-4-3
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
- May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
- May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
- May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 44.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 10.7%
- In 6 games: 15.3%
- In 7 games: 18.8%
- NY Islanders has a 55.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.6%
- In 6 games: 17.6%
- In 5 games: 14.4%
- In 4 games: 11.7%
Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)
Washington leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Washington 50%, Boston 50%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Washington: 1572, 4th overall
- Boston: 1557, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Boston: 4 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Washington: 7-2-1
- Boston: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington at Boston
- May 21: Washington at Boston
- May 23: Boston at Washington
- May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
- May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 13.5%
- In 6 games: 17.2%
- In 7 games: 19.6%
- Boston has a 49.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.8%
- In 6 games: 20.7%
- In 5 games: 14.2%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)
Chances of winning: Colorado 77%, St. Louis 23%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 5 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 3 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 8-2-0
- St. Louis: 6-1-3
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis at Colorado
- May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
- May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.6%
- In 5 games: 25.5%
- In 6 games: 17.6%
- In 7 games: 15.0%
- St. Louis has a 23.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.7%
- In 6 games: 8.4%
- In 5 games: 4.8%
- In 4 games: 2.5%
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)
Chances of winning: Vegas 38%, Minnesota 62%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
- Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
- Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Vegas: 7-3-0
- Minnesota: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota at Vegas
- May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
- May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
- May 24: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
- May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 37.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 8.3%
- In 6 games: 12.7%
- In 7 games: 16.9%
- Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.0%
- In 6 games: 19.0%
- In 5 games: 16.7%
- In 4 games: 14.5%
North Division
Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
- Montreal: 1467, 21st overall
Head-to-head this year (10 games):
- Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-1-2
- Montreal: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal at Toronto
- May 22: Montreal at Toronto
- May 24: Toronto at Montreal
- May 25: Toronto at Montreal
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.4%
- In 5 games: 24.7%
- In 6 games: 17.7%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
- Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.1%
- In 6 games: 9.0%
- In 5 games: 5.1%
- In 4 games: 2.6%
Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)
Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
- Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
- Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-3-0
- Winnipeg: 3-7-0
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg at Edmonton
- May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
- May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
- May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
- May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton
Simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 12.9%
- In 5 games: 20.8%
- In 6 games: 16.5%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
- Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.0%
- In 6 games: 11.9%
- In 5 games: 7.5%
- In 4 games: 4.3%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 21.4% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 9.6% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9.2% 4 Carolina Hurricanes 9.0% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 9.0% 6 Washington Capitals 8.0% 7 Florida Panthers 6.5% 8 Edmonton Oilers 6.1% 9 Boston Bruins 5.4% 10 Minnesota Wild 4.3% 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.1% 12 New York Islanders 2.2% 13 Nashville Predators 1.7% 14 St. Louis Blues 1.6% 15 Winnipeg Jets 1.3% 16 Montreal Canadiens 0.7%