McDonald NHL Power Ratings – May 16, 2021

Hockey playerAlthough the regular season still isn’t done, the playoffs have started already, and all the playoff teams have finished their regular season games.  There are only two games left, both between Calgary and Vancouver.  I’ll be releasing one more regular season McDonald NHL Power Ratings summary after those games are done, but will continue with the McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Reports.

The big story this week was Colorado.  They won their last three games to claim the President’s Trophy as the top team in the regular season.  They’re also at the top of our McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  And, they’re our favourites to win the Stanley Cup.  We’re giving them a 21% chance of winning it all, much higher than second-favourite Pittsburgh at 10%.  But, that’s still only a bit better than a 1-in-5 chance; there’s 16 teams in the playoffs, and anything can happen!

The last playoff spot was clinched by Montreal.  We had given them a 98% chance of making the playoffs last week, and after a less-than-stellar 0-0-2 week, they ended up being the lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs, currently ranked 21st — that could change depending on the results of those last two Calgary-Vancouver games.

There was only one change in our top 5 teams, as Washington won their only game of the week and moved up 4 spots to move into 4th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  That pushed Toronto out, dropping them to 6th, as they went 0-1-1 to finish their season.

The highest ranked teams that didn’t make the playoffs were the New York Rangers, who finished ranked 14th but finished well back in 5th place in the East Division, and Dallas, who finished ranked 16th and were 5th in the West Division, 4 points back of 15th-ranked Nashville.

And the worst team this year according to the McDonald NHL Power Rankings?  Buffalo, who finished with a league-worst 15-34-7 record for 37 points.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1616, 16)

Record: 39-13-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: ✔
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: ✔ (79)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 21% (6)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • May 10: Won 2-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1575)
  • May 12: Won 6-0 vs. Los Angeles Kings (25th, 1444)
  • May 13: Won 5-1 vs. Los Angeles Kings (25th, 1444)

Next week:

  • End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins 1 (1575)

Record: 37-16-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: ✔
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: —
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (1)

Last week: 0-0-0

  • End of regular season schedule

Next week:

  • End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Vegas Golden Knights (1575, 2)

Record: 40-14-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: ✔
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: — (73)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (2)

Last week: 1-1-0

  • May 10: Lost 2-1 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1616)
  • May 12: Won 6-0 @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1440)

Next week:

  • End of regular season schedule

4. Washington Capitals 4 (1572, 7)

Record: 36-15-5, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: ✔
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: —
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (1)

Last week: 1-0-0

  • May 11: Won 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1557)

Next week:

  • End of regular season schedule

5. Carolina Hurricanes 1 (1565, 8)

Record: 36-12-8, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: ✔
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: — (6)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (2)

Last week: 0-1-0

  • May 10: Lost 5-0 @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1506)

Next week:

  • End of regular season schedule

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1616 (16)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (1)      1575
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1575 (2)
 4       Washington Capitals (4)      1572 (7)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (1)      1565 (8)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (1)      1560 (9)
 7       Boston Bruins (1)            1557 (9)
 8       Florida Panthers (2)         1553 (7)
 9       Minnesota Wild (3)           1550 (16)
10       Edmonton Oilers (1)          1548 (13)
11       Tampa Bay Lightning (1)      1539 (7)
12       New York Islanders            1523 (2)
13       St. Louis Blues (1)          1517 (16)
14       New York Rangers (1)         1515
15       Nashville Predators           1506 (8)
16       Dallas Stars                  1495
17       Winnipeg Jets                 1494 (5)
18       Philadelphia Flyers           1479 (6)
19       Calgary Flames                1477 (6)
20       Ottawa Senators               1469 (1)
21       Montreal Canadiens            1467 (2)
22       Arizona Coyotes               1464
23       Vancouver Canucks (5)        1447 (8)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (1)       1446
25       Los Angeles Kings (2)        1444 (8)
26       Detroit Red Wings (1)        1443
27       New Jersey Devils (3)        1441 (6)
28       San Jose Sharks (3)          1440 (6)
29       Columbus Blue Jackets         1430
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1415
31       Buffalo Sabres                1408

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           —

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins                 —
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (1)       ✔ (76)
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (1)            —
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (1)          —
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (1)        —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (1)           —
 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks (1)          —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (1)          —
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (1)     — (76)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               —
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Nashville Predators           ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —

East Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) New York Islanders            ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               ✔
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (3)       ✔ (2)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 ✔
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                — (2)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (1)          —
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (1)        —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche (1)       ✔ (79)

Colorado has won the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21% (6)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (3)      10% (1)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (1)      9% (2)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (1)      9% (2)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (1)     9% (2)
 6       Washington Capitals           8% (1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (1)          6% (1)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (3)         6% (1)
 9       Boston Bruins (1)            5% (1)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (2)           4% (2)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (1)
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
12 (tie) Nashville Predators (1)      2% (1)
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (1)          2% (1)
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (2)       1%
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (2)            1%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
17 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
17 (tie) New York Rangers              —
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
17 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —

 

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.