McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 17, 2021

Well, I thought it was pretty exciting when the first game of the playoffs went into overtime. And then, yesterday, the next two games did as well! And the final game of the day saw Tampa Bay score with 1:14 left in the game to break a tie! This bodes well for exciting playoff hockey!!!

And, yesterday, the lower-ranked teams all won the games. So, as a result, we’ve calculated that each of the lower-ranked teams has a better chance of winning the series than the higher-ranked teams. But, it’s still early in the playoffs, so it will be interesting to watch how that changes.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)

Islanders lead series 1-0
Islanders now have a 55.2% chance of winning the series, up from 34.1%

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 44.8% chance of winning (▼21.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.8)
- In 5 games: 10.7% (▼10.0)
- In 6 games: 15.3% (▼1.0)
- In 7 games: 18.8% (▲2.7)
NY Islanders has a 55.2% chance of winning (▲21.1)
- In 7 games: 11.6% (▲1.5)
- In 6 games: 17.6% (▲5.6)
- In 5 games: 14.4% (▲6.8)
- In 4 games: 11.7% (▲7.3)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)

Minnesota leads series 1-0
Minnesota now has a 62.2% chance of winning the series, up from 41.8%

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota at Vegas
May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
May 24: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Vegas has a 37.8% chance of winning (▼20.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.7)
- In 5 games: 8.3% (▼9.2)
- In 6 games: 12.7% (▼2.3)
- In 7 games: 16.9% (▲0.9)
Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning (▲20.4)
- In 7 games: 12.0% (▲0.6)
- In 6 games: 19.0% (▲4.5)
- In 5 games: 16.7% (▲6.7)
- In 4 games: 14.5% (▲8.6)

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4

Tampa Bay leads series 1-0

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay at Florida
May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Florida has a 34.9% chance of winning (▼20.3)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼8.9)
- In 5 games: 7.5% (▼8.9)
- In 6 games: 11.7% (▼2.5)
- In 7 games: 15.8%
Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning (▲20.3)
- In 7 games: 11.9%
- In 6 games: 19.6% (▲4.3)
- In 5 games: 17.6% (▲6.7)
- In 4 games: 16.0% (▲9.3)

Today’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston at Washington

Washington leads series 1-0
Washington has a 70.5% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville at Carolina

Series tied 0-0
Carolina has a 67.2% chance of winning the series

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis at Colorado

Series tied 0-0
Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 67%, Nashville 33%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville at Carolina
May 19: Nashville at Carolina
May 21: Carolina at Nashville
May 23: Carolina at Nashville
May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 67.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 13.5 %
- In 5 games: 20.9 %
- In 6 games: 16.6 %
- In 7 games: 16.2 %
Nashville has a 32.8 % chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.8 %
- In 6 games: 11.6 %
- In 5 games: 7.3 %
- In 4 games: 4.1 %

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 35%, Tampa Bay 65%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay at Florida
May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 34.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 7.5%
- In 6 games: 11.7%
- In 7 games: 15.8%
Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.9%
- In 6 games: 19.6%
- In 5 games: 17.6%
- In 4 games: 16.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 45%, New York Islanders 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 44.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 10.7%
- In 6 games: 15.3%
- In 7 games: 18.8%
NY Islanders has a 55.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.6%
- In 6 games: 17.6%
- In 5 games: 14.4%
- In 4 games: 11.7%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Washington leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Washington 71%, Boston 29%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston at Washington
May 19: Washington at Boston
May 21: Washington at Boston
May 23: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Washington has a 70.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 15.6%
- In 5 games: 23.0%
- In 6 games: 16.3%
- In 7 games: 15.6%
Boston has a 29.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 12.1%
- In 5 games: 5.7%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 77%, St. Louis 23%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis at Colorado
May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.6%
- In 5 games: 25.5%
- In 6 games: 17.6%
- In 7 games: 15.0%
St. Louis has a 23.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.7%
- In 6 games: 8.4%
- In 5 games: 4.8%
- In 4 games: 2.5%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Vegas 38%, Minnesota 62%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota at Vegas
May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
May 24: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 37.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 8.3%
- In 6 games: 12.7%
- In 7 games: 16.9%
Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.0%
- In 6 games: 19.0%
- In 5 games: 16.7%
- In 4 games: 14.5%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal at Toronto
May 22: Montreal at Toronto
May 24: Toronto at Montreal
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.4%
- In 5 games: 24.7%
- In 6 games: 17.7%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.1%
- In 6 games: 9.0%
- In 5 games: 5.1%
- In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 12.9%
- In 5 games: 20.8%
- In 6 games: 16.5%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.0%
- In 6 games: 11.9%
- In 5 games: 7.5%
- In 4 games: 4.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – May 16, 2021

Although the regular season still isn’t done, the playoffs have started already, and all the playoff teams have finished their regular season games. There are only two games left, both between Calgary and Vancouver. I’ll be releasing one more regular season McDonald NHL Power Ratings summary after those games are done, but will continue with the McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Reports.

The big story this week was Colorado. They won their last three games to claim the President’s Trophy as the top team in the regular season. They’re also at the top of our McDonald NHL Power Rankings. And, they’re our favourites to win the Stanley Cup. We’re giving them a 21% chance of winning it all, much higher than second-favourite Pittsburgh at 10%. But, that’s still only a bit better than a 1-in-5 chance; there’s 16 teams in the playoffs, and anything can happen!

The last playoff spot was clinched by Montreal. We had given them a 98% chance of making the playoffs last week, and after a less-than-stellar 0-0-2 week, they ended up being the lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs, currently ranked 21st — that could change depending on the results of those last two Calgary-Vancouver games.

There was only one change in our top 5 teams, as Washington won their only game of the week and moved up 4 spots to move into 4th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings. That pushed Toronto out, dropping them to 6th, as they went 0-1-1 to finish their season.

The highest ranked teams that didn’t make the playoffs were the New York Rangers, who finished ranked 14th but finished well back in 5th place in the East Division, and Dallas, who finished ranked 16th and were 5th in the West Division, 4 points back of 15th-ranked Nashville.

And the worst team this year according to the McDonald NHL Power Rankings? Buffalo, who finished with a league-worst 15-34-7 record for 37 points.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1616, ▲16)

Record: 39-13-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: ✔ (▲79)
Winning the Stanley Cup: 21% (▲6)

Last week: 3-0-0

May 10: Won 2-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1575)
May 12: Won 6-0 vs. Los Angeles Kings (25th, 1444)
May 13: Won 5-1 vs. Los Angeles Kings (25th, 1444)

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1575)

Record: 37-16-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Vegas Golden Knights (1575, ▼2)

Record: 40-14-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼73)
Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼2)

Last week: 1-1-0

May 10: Lost 2-1 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1616)
May 12: Won 6-0 @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1440)

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

4. Washington Capitals ▲4 (1572, ▲7)

Record: 36-15-5, 2nd in East Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 1-0-0

May 11: Won 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1557)

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

5. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1565, ▼8)

Record: 36-12-8, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼6)
Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼2)

Last week: 0-1-0

May 10: Lost 5-0 @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1506)

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1616 (▲16)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1575
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1575 (▼2)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲4)      1572 (▲7)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1565 (▼8)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1560 (▼9)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1557 (▼9)
 8       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1553 (▲7)
 9       Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1550 (▼16)
10       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1548 (▼13)
11       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1539 (▼7)
12       New York Islanders            1523 (▲2)
13       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1517 (▲16)
14       New York Rangers (▼1)         1515
15       Nashville Predators           1506 (▲8)
16       Dallas Stars                  1495
17       Winnipeg Jets                 1494 (▲5)
18       Philadelphia Flyers           1479 (▲6)
19       Calgary Flames                1477 (▲6)
20       Ottawa Senators               1469 (▲1)
21       Montreal Canadiens            1467 (▲2)
22       Arizona Coyotes               1464
23       Vancouver Canucks (▲5)        1447 (▲8)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1446
25       Los Angeles Kings (▼2)        1444 (▼8)
26       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1443
27       New Jersey Devils (▼3)        1441 (▼6)
28       San Jose Sharks (▼3)          1440 (▼6)
29       Columbus Blue Jackets         1430
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1415
31       Buffalo Sabres                1408

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           —

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins                 —
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       ✔ (▲76)
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            —
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           —
 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     — (▼76)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               —
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Nashville Predators           ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —

East Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) New York Islanders            ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               ✔
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       ✔ (▲2)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 ✔
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                — (▼2)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          —
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       ✔ (▲79)

Colorado has won the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21% (▲6)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      10% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      9% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      9% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     9% (▼2)
 6       Washington Capitals           8% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          6% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         6% (▲1)
 9       Boston Bruins (▼1)            5% (▼1)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           4% (▼2)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (▼1)
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      2% (▲1)
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1%
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            1%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
17 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
17 (tie) New York Rangers              —
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
17 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —