The playoffs have started!  Although the regular season hasn’t concluded, all of the playoff teams have finished their regular season games, with Edmonton losing 4-1 to Vancouver.  That lowered their rating, so as a result, their chances of winning their first-round series against Winnipeg and their chances of winning the Stanley Cup both dropped, and the chances of all other teams increased.  But, Colorado is still our favourite to win it all.

The first playoff game was exciting, with Washington winning it in overtime!

Yesterday’s Game

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)

• Washington leads series 1-0
• Washington now has a 70.5% chance of winning the series, up from 55.7%

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston at Washington
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Washington has a 70.5% chance of winning (▲14.8)
  • In 4 games: 15.6% (▲6.5)
  • In 5 games: 23.0% (▲6.5)
  • In 6 games: 16.3% (▲1.9)
  • In 7 games: 15.6% (▼0.2)
• Boston has a 29.5% chance of winning ( ▼14.8)
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 12.1% (▼3.1)
  • In 5 games: 5.7% (▼5.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼6.6)

Today’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh

• Series tied 0-0
• Pittsburgh has a 65.9% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota at Vegas

• Series tied 0-0
• Vegas has a 58.2% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at Florida

• Series tied 0-0
• Florida has a 55.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 67%, Nashville 33%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 67.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 13.5 %
  • In 5 games: 20.9 %
  • In 6 games: 16.6 %
  • In 7 games: 16.2 %
• Nashville has a 32.8 % chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8 %
  • In 6 games: 11.6 %
  • In 5 games: 7.3 %
  • In 4 games: 4.1 %

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 55%, Tampa Bay 45%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 55.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 8.9%
  • In 5 games: 16.4%
  • In 6 games: 14.2%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 44.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 15.3%
  • In 5 games: 10.9%
  • In 4 games: 6.7%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 66%, New York Islanders 34%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 65.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.8%
  • In 5 games: 20.7%
  • In 6 games: 16.3%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• NY Islanders has a 34.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.1%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.6%
  • In 4 games: 4.4%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Washington leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Washington 71%, Boston 29%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 70.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 15.6%
  • In 5 games: 23.0%
  • In 6 games: 16.3%
  • In 7 games: 15.6%
• Boston has a 29.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 12.1%
  • In 5 games: 5.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 77%, St. Louis 23%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.6%
  • In 5 games: 25.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
• St. Louis has a 23.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.7%
  • In 6 games: 8.4%
  • In 5 games: 4.8%
  • In 4 games: 2.5%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Vegas 58%, Minnesota 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 58.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.7%
  • In 5 games: 17.5%
  • In 6 games: 15.0%
  • In 7 games: 16.0%
• Minnesota has a 41.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.4%
  • In 6 games: 14.5%
  • In 5 games: 10.0%
  • In 4 games: 5.9%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Edmonton: 8-2-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.9%
  • In 5 games: 20.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.5%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.0%
  • In 6 games: 11.9%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 4.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%