Although the NHL regular season hasn’t concluded yet, all the playoff teams have been determined and the first-round matchups and the first playoff game will be played today. Using the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, we’ve run a million simulations of each playoff series, and here’s what we’ve seen as a result. Note that Edmonton in the North Division still has one game to play, so we’ll likely see some changes in those predictions, but these are our final predictions for the other three divisions.
Overall, we think that Colorado has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup. They are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and we’re giving them a 21.1% chance of winning it all, more than twice as much a chance as second-ranked Pittsburgh (9.6%).
The closest playoff matchup is Florida vs. Tampa Bay, where we’re giving Florida a 55% chance of winning it. The most lop-sided matchup is Colorado vs. St. Louis, and we’re giving Colorado a 77% chance of winning that one. But still, that means that St. Louis has about a 1 in 4 chance of upsetting the President’s Trophy winner, so it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility!
Playoff Matchups
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)
Chances of winning: Carolina 67%, Nashville 33%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
- Nashville: 1506, 15th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Nashville: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 games:
- Carolina: 5-2-3
- Nashville: 7-2-1
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 67.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 13.5 %
- In 5 games: 20.9 %
- In 6 games: 16.6 %
- In 7 games: 16.2 %
- Nashville has a 32.8 % chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.8 %
- In 6 games: 11.6 %
- In 5 games: 7.3 %
- In 4 games: 4.1 %
Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Chances of winning: Florida 55%, Tampa Bay 45%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1553, 9th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Florida: 5 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 games:
- Florida: 8-2-0
- Tampa Bay: 6-3-1
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 55.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 8.9%
- In 5 games: 16.4%
- In 6 games: 14.2%
- In 7 games: 15.8%
- Tampa Bay has a 44.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.9%
- In 6 games: 15.3%
- In 5 games: 10.9%
- In 4 games: 6.7%
East Division
Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 66%, New York Islanders 34%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
- NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 games:
- Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
- New York Islanders: 3-4-3
Simulation results:
- Pittsburgh has a 65.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 12.8%
- In 5 games: 20.7%
- In 6 games: 16.3%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
- NY Islanders has a 34.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.1%
- In 6 games: 12.0%
- In 5 games: 7.6%
- In 4 games: 4.4%
Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)
Chances of winning: Washington 56%, Boston 44%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Washington: 1572, 4th overall
- Boston: 1557, 8th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Boston: 4 regulation wins
Last 10 games:
- Washington: 7-2-1
- Boston: 6-3-1
Simulation results:
- Washington has a 55.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 9.1%
- In 5 games: 16.5%
- In 6 games: 14.4%
- In 7 games: 15.8%
- Boston has a 44.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 15.2%
- In 5 games: 10.7%
- In 4 games: 6.6%
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)
Chances of winning: Colorado 77%, St. Louis 23%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 5 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 3 regulation wins
Last 10 games:
- Colorado: 8-2-0
- St. Louis: 6-1-3
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.6%
- In 5 games: 25.5%
- In 6 games: 17.6%
- In 7 games: 15.0%
- St. Louis has a 23.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.7%
- In 6 games: 8.4%
- In 5 games: 4.8%
- In 4 games: 2.5%
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)
Chances of winning: Vegas 58%, Minnesota 42%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
- Minnesota: 1550, 10th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
- Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Last 10 games:
- Vegas: 7-3-0
- Minnesota: 5-3-2
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 58.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 9.7%
- In 5 games: 17.5%
- In 6 games: 15.0%
- In 7 games: 16.0%
- Minnesota has a 41.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.4%
- In 6 games: 14.5%
- In 5 games: 10.0%
- In 4 games: 5.9%
North Division
Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
- Montreal: 1467, 21st overall
Head-to-head this year (10 games):
- Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 games:
- Toronto: 7-1-2
- Montreal: 4-4-2
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.4%
- In 5 games: 24.7%
- In 6 games: 17.7%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
- Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.1%
- In 6 games: 9.0%
- In 5 games: 5.1%
- In 4 games: 2.6%
Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)
Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1559, 7th overall
- Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
- Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 games:
- Edmonton: 8-2-0
- Winnipeg: 3-7-0
Simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 68.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 14.0%
- In 5 games: 21.8%
- In 6 games: 16.9%
- In 7 games: 16.0%
- Winnipeg has a 31.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.5%
- In 6 games: 11.2%
- In 5 games: 6.9%
- In 4 games: 3.7%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 21.1% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 9.6% 3 Carolina Hurricanes 9.1% 4 Toronto Maple Leafs 8.9% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 8.8% 6 Washington Capitals 8.0% 7 Edmonton Oilers 7.4% 8 Florida Panthers 6.3% 9 Boston Bruins 5.2% 10 Minnesota Wild 4.3% 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.0% 12 New York Islanders 2.3% 13 St. Louis Blues 1.7% 14 Nashville Predators 1.6% 15 Winnipeg Jets 1.2% 16 Montreal Canadiens 0.6%