Tag: ratings

I haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Montreal defeat British Columbia 31-10
Saturday: Toronto defeat Ottawa 24-19
Saturday: Winnipeg thump Saskatchewan 54-20 in Banjo Bowl
Saturday: Calgary doubles Edmonton 56-28 in Battle of Alberta rematch

Week 14 Results

British Columbia 10  at Montreal 31
Toronto 24  at Ottawa 19
Saskatchewan 20  at Winnipeg 54
Calgary 56  at Edmonton 28

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1646 (▲7)	12-1, 1st West
2	Calgary	1561 (▲10)	8-4, T-2nd West
3	British Columbia	1529 (▼13)	8-3, T-2nd West
4 (▲1)	Toronto	1525 (▲11)	7-5, 1st East
5 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1508 (▼7)	6-7, 4th West
6	Montreal	1486 (▲13)	5-7, 2nd East
7	Hamilton	1450	3-9, T-3rd East
8	Ottawa	1411 (▼11)	3-9, T-3rd East
9	Edmonton	1409 (▼9)	3-10, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s an 87% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 3% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1646	44% (▲2)
2	Toronto	1525	20% (▲2)
3 (▲1)	Calgary	1561	11% (▲1)
T-4 (▲2)	Montreal	1486	8% (▲1)
T-4 (▼1)	British Columbia	1529	8% (▼3)
6 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1508	7% (▼1)
T-7 (▲1)	Hamilton	1450	1%
T-7	Ottawa	1411	1% (▼1)
9	Edmonton	1409	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 12-1, 1st in West	1646	✔	>99%	96%	99%	67%	44%
Toronto 7-5, 1st in East	1525	99%	99%	81%	91%	53%	20%
Calgary 8-4, T-2nd in West	1561	>99%	49%	<1%	54%	19%	11%
Montreal 5-7, 2nd in East	1486	84%	79%	19%	54%	24%	8%
British Columbia 8-3, T-2nd in West	1529	>99%	51%	3%	47%	15%	8%
Saskatchewan 6-7, 4th in West	1508	86%	1%	—	40%	16%	7%
Hamilton 3-9, T-3rd in East	1450	17%	11%	<1%	9%	3%	1%
Ottawa 3-9, T-3rd in East	1411	13%	11%	<1%	7%	2%	1%
Edmonton 3-10, 5th in West	1409	1%	<1%	—	<1%	<1%	<1%

Week 15 Game Predictions

Edmonton (30%) at Saskatchewan (69%)
Winnipeg (69%) at Hamilton (30%)
British Columbia (38%) at Calgary (61%)

I’ve been away for a few weeks, on a transatlantic cruise from Southampton, England to New York.  The cruise was great, but the internet access on the boat was horrendous, and as a result, I have fallen behind on my CFL Power Ratings reports.  Apparently, the boys in the back room have been goofing off while I was away! 🙂  Anyways, I’m back now, and am slowly working to catch up on the reports.  Here’s the report for Week 13, better late than never!

It was Labour Day weekend in Canada, and that means classic confrontations!

On Friday, Ottawa, who has pretty much stunk all year, visited Montreal to play the Alouettes.  In a surprise, Ottawa defeated Montreal 38-24 on the road.  Ottawa quarterback Nick Arbuckle, despite completing only 20 of his 31 passes, threw for a total of 313 yards and a touchdown.  His favourite receiver in this game was Jaelon Acklin, who caught 7 passes for 159 yards.  The Ottawa defense came up big, forcing four turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

There were no games on Saturday, but Sunday featured the Labour Day Classic in Regina, as Saskatchewan hosted their prairie rivals, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  In a low-scoring, close game, Winnipeg beat Saskatchewan 20-18.  The Riders usually play well in their biggest game of the regular season, but it wasn’t enough to defeat the league’s-best Bombers.  Winnipeg kicker Marc Liegghio booted a 55-yard field goal with 3 minutes left to take the lead, and a Winnipeg interception at their own 14 yard line sealed the win for the Bombers.

Labour Day Monday saw a doubleheader being played.  In the first game, Toronto headed to Hamilton to take on the Ticats.  Toronto hasn’t won the Labour Day clash in ten years, but they changed that, as Toronto rolled over Hamilton 28-8.  It might have been expected, as Hamilton’s first- and second-string quarterbacks were both unavailable due to injury.  The game was knotted at 8 after the first half, but Toronto held Hamilton scoreless in the second half, and scored two 4th-quarter touchdowns to put the game away.

The final game of the weekend saw hapless Edmonton head south to Calgary to face the Stampeders.  In the Battle of Alberta, Calgary beat Edmonton 26-18.  The game was much closer than expected, with Edmonton leading 8-7 at the half, but 15 Stampeder points in the 3rd quarter put Calgary in front to stay.

Week 13 Results

Ottawa 38  at Montreal 24
Winnipeg 20  at Saskatchewan 18
Toronto 28  at Hamilton 8
Edmonton 18  at Calgary 26

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week, although with Ottawa’s surprising win over Montreal, they’ve moved out of the lowest spot in our rankings; that dishonour is now held by Edmonton.  The top 4 teams continue to be from the West, with Winnipeg by far the strongest team with their 11-1 record.  Toronto is the top-ranked team in the East, and the only Eastern team with a rating above the average of 1500.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1639 (▲11)	11-1, 1st West
2	Calgary	1551 (▲7)	7-4, 3rd West
3	British Columbia	1542	8-2, 2nd West
4	Saskatchewan	1515 (▼11)	6-6, 4th West
5	Toronto	1514 (▲11)	6-5, 1st East
6	Montreal	1473 (▼17)	4-7, 2nd East
7	Hamilton	1450 (▼13)	3-9, T-3rd East
8 (▲1)	Ottawa	1422 (▲17)	3-8, T-3rd East
9 (▼1)	Edmonton	1418 (▼7)	3-9, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains our favourite to win the Grey Cup; the boys in the back room have now calculated that they have a 42% chance of winning it!  They clinched a playoff spot this week, the first and only team to do so.

Toronto is our second favourite to win the Cup; being the top team in the East really increases the chances of making it to the final, and anything can happen in the Grey Cup game!  With their loss to lowly Ottawa, Montreal took a big drop, down from 11% chance to 7%.  And lowly Ottawa, with their big win, have actually moved up to the 7th-favourite, moving ahead of Hamilton who they are currently tied with, although the RedBlacks do have a game in hand.

Overall, there’s a 71% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 90% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (same as last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1639	42% (▲3)
2	Toronto	1514	18% (▲3)
3	British Columbia	1542	11% (▼1)
4 (▲1)	Calgary	1551	10%
5 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1515	8%
6 (▼2)	Montreal	1473	7% (▼4)
7 (▲1)	Ottawa	1422	2% (▲1)
8 (▼1)	Hamilton	1450	1% (▼2)
9	Edmonton	1418	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 11-1, 1st in West	1639	✔	>99%	91%	97%	64%	42%
Toronto 6-5, 1st in East	1514	96%	95%	77%	87%	50%	18%
British Columbia 8-2, 2nd in West	1542	>99%	67%	9%	54%	19%	11%
Calgary 7-4, 3rd in West	1551	>99%	32%	<1%	50%	18%	10%
Saskatchewan 6-6, 4th in West	1515	88%	1%	<1%	42%	18%	8%
Montreal 4-7, 2nd in East	1473	68%	64%	17%	43%	20%	7%
Ottawa 3-8, T-3rd in East	1422	27%	25%	5%	16%	7%	2%
Hamilton 3-9, T-3rd in East	1450	19%	15%	<1%	10%	4%	1%
Edmonton 3-9, 5th in West	1418	2%	<1%	—	1%	<1%	<1%

Week 14 Game Predictions

British Columbia (52%) at Montreal (47%)
Toronto (55%) at Ottawa (44%)
Saskatchewan (27%) at Winnipeg (72%)
Calgary (61%) at Edmonton (38%)

It was the penultimate weekend of the summer, and the CFL had four games on the schedule.  In Thursday Night Football, Calgary looked to close the gap against Winnipeg, but it was not to be, as Winnipeg defeated Calgary in a close game, 31-29.  Quarterback Zach Collaros led the Bombers with a 19-for-26, 294 yard, two touchdown (but two interceptions) effort, helped out by receivers Nic Demski’s eight catches for 117 yards and a touchdown, and Greg McCrae’s five catches for 95 yards and another touchdown.  Calgary’s QB Jake Maier, making his first start of the season, was equally, if not more, impressive, going 23 for 28 for 294 yards and three touchdowns, and receiver Henry Malik caught 7 of those passes for 122 yards and three touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough.

There was a doubleheader on Friday.  The early game featured 3-7 Hamilton travelling to Toronto to face the 4-5 first place Argos.  Featured?  Come on, McDonald CFL Power Ratings author, get serious.  Well, whatever — Toronto beat Hamilton 37-20.  Despite being down 16-10 at the half, the Toronto defense, led by DB Jamal Peters three interceptions, one of which was returned for a 67 yard touchdown, held Hamilton to 4 second half points and Toronto racked up 27 of their own for the victory.  Argonaut quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson went 19-for-32 for 258 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, while Hamilton’s QB tandem of Dane Evans and Matt Shiltz combined for 32-for-45, 388 yards, one touchdown, but three interceptions.

Friday’s late game saw Saskatchewan travel to British Columbia.  The wheels on the Rider bus have come off lately, but they were looking to turn things around against Nathan Rourke-less BC, who lost their quarterback to injury last week.  In a welcome turnaround for Rider fans, Saskatchewan defeated British Columbia 23-16.  Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo looked good (finally), going 19-for-24 for 321 yards and two touchdowns.  He was helped by receiver Kian Schaffer-Baker, who caught 5 passes for 170 yards, and backup running back Frankie Hickson (playing for an injured Jamal Morrow) who picked up 129 yards on 15 carries and caught 3 passes for another 30 yards.  BC’s backup quarterback Michael O’Connor didn’t have an impressive performance, going 6 for 15 for 94 yards before being injured in the second quarter, and his replacement, Antonio Pipkin, also didn’t look good, going 9 for 17 for 112 yards and a touchdown.

The weekend ended with two last place teams facing each other, with Eastern laggard Ottawa heading to Edmonton to face the Western laggard Elks.  In a game of interest to maybe only the players’ parents, Ottawa beat Edmonton 25-18.  Ottawa scored three touchdowns in the first half to hold a 20-3 lead, and their defense was able to hold Edmonton to 15 points in the second half for the win.  Ottawa’s Nate Behar had four catches for 101 yards, while Kenny Lawler of the Elks caught three for 146 yards.

Week 12 Results

Calgary 29  at Winnipeg 31
Hamilton 20  at Toronto  37
Saskatchewan 23  at British Columbia 16
Ottawa 25  at Edmonton 18

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week, as the only change was Calgary and British Columbia swapping spots in 2nd and 3rd.  Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the league, by far.  The top 4 teams are all from the West, with the top-ranked Eastern team, Toronto, just barely above the 1500 rating point “average” line.  With Ottawa’s win over Edmonton, they’ve gone back above the 1400 point “stink” line.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1628 (▲9)	10-1, 1st West
2 (▲1)	Calgary	1544 (▼8)	6-4, T-3rd West
3 (▼1)	British Columbia	1542 (▼16)	8-2, 2nd West
4	Saskatchewan	1526 (▲16)	6-5, T-3rd West
5	Toronto	1501 (▲10)	5-5, 1st East
6	Montreal	1490	4-6, 2nd East
7	Hamilton	1463 (▼10)	3-8, 3rd East
8	Edmonton	1425 (▼16)	3-8, 5th East
9	Ottawa	1405 (▲16)	2-8, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, and with their win over Calgary and British Columbia’s loss to Saskatchewan, their odds are now at 39%, up 4% from last week.  That loss to Saskatchewan pushed British Columbia down to a 12% chance of winning it, still 2nd-best from the West but now 3rd-best in the league, behind Toronto at 15%.  Saskatchewan, with a 6th-best chance of 9%, have their chances bolstered by being the team most likely to crossover in the playoffs, with a 58% chance of that happening.  Of course, that would mean that they finish 4th in the West, but then they would get to face the weaker Eastern teams in the playoffs, albeit on the road.

Overall, there’s a 71% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 90% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (up from 82% last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1628	39% (▲4)
2 (▲1)	Toronto	1501	15% (▲2)
3 (▼1)	British Columbia	1542	12% (▼4)
4	Montreal	1490	11% (▼1)
5	Calgary	1544	10% (▼1)
6	Saskatchewan	1526	9% (▲2)
7	Hamilton	1463	3% (▼2)
8	Ottawa	1405	1%
9 (▼1)	Edmonton	1425	<1% (▼1)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 10-1, 1st in West	1628	>99%	98%	85%	94%	60%	39%
Toronto 5-5, 1st in East	1501	91%	90%	59%	75%	41%	15%
British Columbia 8-2, 2nd in West	1542	>99%	71%	13%	56%	22%	12%
Montreal 4-6, 2nd in East	1490	81%	79%	35%	60%	30%	11%
Calgary 6-4, T-3rd in West	1544	97%	26%	1%	49%	18%	10%
Saskatchewan 6-5, T-3rd in West	1526	90%	5%	1%	43%	18%	9%
Hamilton 3-8, 3rd in East	1463	25%	20%	3%	15%	7%	3%
Ottawa 2-8, 4th in East	1405	12%	11%	3%	7%	3%	1%
Edmonton 3-8, 5th in West	1425	3%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	<1%

Week 13 Game Predictions

Friday: Ottawa (31%) at Montreal (68%)
Sunday: Winnipeg (56%) at Saskatchewan (43%)
Monday: Toronto (48%) at Hamilton (51%)
Monday: Edmonton (27%) at Calgary (72%)

We’re just over half way in the CFL season, and Winnipeg, although still the odds-on favourite to win the Grey Cup, no longer looks like a sure thing with British Columbia chomping on their heels.  The East, despite being by far the weaker division, is very close, and any team that makes it to the Grey Cup has a chance of winning it.

But on to this week’s games.  There were two doubleheaders this weekend, one on Friday and another on Saturday.  In Friday’s first game, the worst team in the West faced the worst team in the East.  As might be expected, Edmonton defeated Ottawa 30-12.  Although Ottawa led 12-9 at the half, Edmonton exploded for 21 unanswered points in the second half for the victory.  There were no real standout players in this game, other than Ottawa kicker Lewis Ward who kicked two rouges in the game.  That’s pretty sad to be the highlight.

The second game on Friday saw British Columbia head to Saskatchewan for a rematch of last week’s game.  Different location, same result, as BC defeated Saskatchewan 28-10.  Nathan Rourke, BC’s quarterback, had another standout game, going 22 for 31 for 375 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 63 more yards.  Unfortunately for BC, he got hurt in the fourth quarter and looks like he’ll be needing surgery.  It will be interesting to see if BC can continue their strong season without their star quarterback.  For BC’s receiving corps, Lucky Whitehead had nine catches for 136 yards and a touchdown, and Dominique Rhymes had six catches of his own for 127 yards.  Rider starting QB Cody Fajardo was looking unimpressive, and was pulled in the second quarter in favour of Mason Fine.  We’ll see who gets the start next week for Saskatchewan.

On Saturday, the day started with a tilt between Hamilton and Montreal in Montreal.  Although the Tiger-Cats led 25-18 after three quarters, Montreal came back to defeat Hamilton 29-28.  Montreal kicker David Cote split the uprights with a 48-yard field goal as time ran out to give the Als the victory.  At QB, Trevor Harris led Montreal, going 24 for 31 for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception.  On the other side of the ball, Matt Shiltz also had an impressive game, going 27 for 39 for 303 yards and two touchdowns.

In the final game of the weekend, Calgary headed out to Toronto to face the Argonauts.  In a close contest, Calgary came out the victors, defeating Toronto 22-19.  Behind 19-10 after late in the third quarter, Calgary’s defense came up big, holding Toronto scoreless the rest of the way, as well as scoring a 62 yard pick-six touchdown.  Jake Maier, who replaced Bo Levi Mitchell as quarterback at the halfway point for Calgary, went 14 for 18 for 149 yards but one interception, and Shawn Bane led the receivers with four catches for 129 yards.  For the Argos, McLeod Bethel-Thompson went 27 for 43 for 276 yards and an interception, and A.J. Ouellette caught 7 of those passes for 92 yards.

Week 11 Results

Edmonton 30  at Ottawa 12
British Columbia 28  at Saskatchewan 10
Hamilton 28  at Montreal 29
Calgary 22  at Toronto 19

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Top team Winnipeg was idle this week, but are so far ahead in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings that they continue to be ranked #1.  British Columbia continues their climb up the ratings, remaining number 2 in the rankings, but with the loss of quarterback Nathan Rourke, we’ll see if they can continue their strong run.  Calgary and Saskatchewan round out the top 4, as all top 4 teams are from the West.  Toronto, the top team in the East, dropped below the 1500 average rating mark, but continue to hold 5th spot.  The only change in the rankings saw Montreal and Hamilton swap places, and Montreal is now just 1 rating point behind Toronto.  Montreal and Toronto are tied for first in the East, although Toronto has one game in hand.  Edmonton remains in 8th, and lowly Ottawa remains the lowest-ranked team, once again dropping below the 1400 point “stink line.”

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1619	9-1, 1st West
2	British Columbia	1558 (▲14)	8-1, 2nd West
3	Calgary	1552  (▲13)	6-3, 3rd West
4	Saskatchewan	1510 (▼13)	5-5, 4th West
5	Toronto	1491 (▼13)	4-5, T-1st East
6 (▲1)	Montreal	1490 (▲11)	4-6, T-1st East
7 (▼1)	Hamilton	1473 (▼11)	3-7, 3rd East
8	Edmonton	1441 (▲14)	3-7, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1389 (▼13)	1-8, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, although British Columbia is slowly closing the gap.  We’re giving Winnipeg a 35% chance of winning it all, and BC a 16% chance, which has moved the Lions up to our second-favoured team.  Toronto has the best chance from the East, with a 13% chance, although Montreal is just behind at 12%.  Saskatchewan, who will be hosting the Grey Cup this year, have seen their chances drop to 7%, with Calgary third-favourite from the West at 11%.  Hamilton can’t be counted out of the East, although we figure they’ve only got a 5% chance of winning it.  Rounding out the list are Edmonton and Ottawa, both with just a 1% chance.

Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 2% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s an 82% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (same as last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (also same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1619	35% (▼1)
2 (▲1)	British Columbia	1558	16% (▲2)
3 (▼1)	Toronto	1491	13% (▼3)
4 (▲2)	Montreal	1490	12% (▲4)
5 (▼1)	Calgary	1552	11% (▲2)
6 (▼2)	Saskatchewan	1510	7% (▼2)
7	Hamilton	1473	5% (▼2)
T-8 (▲1)	Edmonton	1441	1% (▲1)
T-8	Ottawa	1389	1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 9-1, 1st in West	1619	>99%	95%	71%	88%	54%	35%
British Columbia 8-1, 2nd in West	1558	>99%	77%	25%	63%	27%	16%
Toronto 4-5, T-1st in East	1491	81%	77%	47%	65%	35%	13%
Montreal 4-6, T-1st in East	1490	83%	78%	40%	62%	32%	12%
Calgary 6-3, 3rd in West	1552	97%	26%	4%	48%	19%	11%
Saskatchewan 5-5, 4th in West	1510	73%	2%	<1%	34%	14%	7%
Hamilton 3-7, 3rd in East	1473	45%	38%	12%	30%	14%	5%
Edmonton 3-7, 5th in West	1441	12%	<1%	<1%	5%	2%	1%
Ottawa 1-8, 4th in East	1389	8%	7%	2%	5%	2%	1%

Week 12 Game Predictions

Thursday: Calgary (34%) at Winnipeg (65%)
Friday: Hamilton (40%) at Toronto (59%)
Friday: Saskatchewan (36%) at British Columbia (63%)
Saturday: Ottawa (36%) at Edmonton (63%)

It was a very unsurprising week in the CFL this week, as the games went pretty much as expected.  In every game, the higher rated team won, and as a result, there’s been very little change in our rankings this week.

Thursday Night Football saw undefeated Winnipeg travel to Montreal to face the 2-5 Alouettes, where Winnipeg defeated Montreal 35-20.  It wasn’t as easy a victory as the score would indicate, though, as the game was tied 14-14 after three quarters, but Winnipeg came through with three touchdowns in the final frame.  Neither quarterback had a particularly good game: Winnipeg’s Zach Collaros went 15 for 26 for 210 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Montreal’s Trevor Harris went 16 for 26 for 127 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.  Montreal’s defense was the star for their team, with those three interceptions, three sacks, and a fumble recovery.

On Friday, Calgary, currently ranked 2nd in the West although they are third in the standings, headed to Ottawa to face the 1-7 RedBlacks.  In a low-scoring game, Calgary beat Ottawa 17-3.  Perhaps the highlight of the game came in the fourth quarter.  With Calgary leading 16-0, punter Cody Grace blasted a kick 52 yards into the endzone, forcing Ottawa to give up a rouge, perhaps the most exciting play in Canadian football!  Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell ended the game with 137 yards passing, increasing his lifetime total to just one yard behind Henry Burris for all-time passing yards for Calgary.

The first game of Saturday’s doubleheader had Hamilton visit Toronto.  Toronto had a 3-3 record heading into the game, good enough for first place in the East, while Hamilton sat one win behind them in the standings, at 2-5.  Toronto prevailed in this game, defeating Hamilton 34-20.  Hamilton led 17-16 after three quarters, but a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown and a pick-6 interception gave Toronto the win.  Toronto QB Dane Evans was the outstanding offensive player, going 29 for 43 for 303 yards and a touchdown, but it wasn’t enough.  With the win, Toronto moves above .500 for the season.

And in the final game of the weekend, Edmonton headed to BC Place to face the Lions.  In a standout game, British Columbia trounced Edmonton 46-14.  British Columbia QB Nathan Rourke had an amazing game, going 34 for 37 for 477 yards, 5 passing touchdowns, and 1 rushing touchdown!  Dominique Rhymes was his favourite target, catching nine passes for 91 yards and three touchdowns, while Lucky Whitehead caught 6 passes for 148 yards, including a 69-yard touchdown.

Week 9 Results

Winnipeg 35  at Montreal 20
Calgary 17  at Ottawa 3
Hamilton 20  at Toronto 34
Edmonton 14  at British Columbia 46

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week, as the games all ended as expected.  The only change sees Toronto move ahead of the idle Saskatchewan Roughriders for 4th place in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings.  9-0 Winnipeg unsurprisingly sits atop the rankings with a season-high 1639 McDonald CFL Power Ratings rating points.  Third-in-the-West Calgary sits in second place in our rankings, ahead of second-in-the-West BC.  Those two teams face off next weekend in Calgary in what will be the game to watch.  Ottawa remains the lowest-ranked team with their 1-7 record.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1639 (▲9)	9-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1554 (▲10)	5-2, 3rd West
3	British Columbia	1529 (▲8)	6-1, 2nd West
4 (▲1)	Toronto	1516 (▲10)	4-3, 1st East
5 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1511	4-4, 4th West
6	Hamilton	1472 (▼10)	2-6, T-2nd East
7	Montreal	1459 (▼8)	2-6, T-2nd East
8	Edmonton	1439 (▼8)	2-6, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1402 (▼9)	1-7, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with their 9-0 record.  Somebody has to beat them if they’re not going to win the Grey Cup!  We’re now giving them a 41% chance of winning it, up 1% from last week.  Toronto is second most likely at 18%, up 2% from last week.   By virtue of their not playing, Saskatchewan moved up from 6th to 5th in likelihood, passing Hamilton.

Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 2% from last week’s report.  And, in an enhancement to our calculations, we’ve determined that there’s an 86% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs, versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1639	41% (▲1)
2	Toronto	1516	18% (▲2)
3	Calgary	1554	11%
4	British Columbia	1529	9%
5 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1511	7%
6 (▼1)	Hamilton	1472	6% (▼2)
7	Montreal	1459	5% (▼1)
T-8	Ottawa	1402	1% (▼1)
T-8	Edmonton	1439	1% (▼1)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 9-0, 1st in West	1639	>99%	98%	89%	96%	63%	41%
Toronto 4-3, 1st in East	1516	93%	91%	74%	84%	50%	18%
Calgary 5-2, 3rd in West	1554	97%	47%	4%	53%	20%	11%
British Columbia 6-1, 2nd in West	1529	98%	47%	7%	49%	17%	9%
Saskatchewan 4-4, 4th in West	1511	72%	7%	1%	34%	14%	7%
Hamilton 2-6, T-2nd in East	1472	50%	46%	12%	33%	16%	6%
Montreal 2-6, T-2nd in East	1459	53%	48%	11%	33%	15%	5%
Ottawa 1-7, 4th in East	1402	18%	15%	3%	10%	4%	1%
Edmonton 2-6, 5th in West	1439	18%	<1%	<1%	8%	3%	1%

Week 10 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (21%) at Winnipeg (78%)
Friday: Toronto (49%) at Hamilton (50%)
Saturday: British Columbia (39%) at Calgary (60%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (52%) at Edmonton (47%)

The CFL continued into Week 8 of the schedule, highlighted by a Saturday showdown between the top two teams in the league.

On Thursday, 3rd-place Hamilton hosted 2nd-place Montreal, in what could be a battle for the last playoff spot in the East, as it’s looking increasingly likely that a team from the West will cross-over to take the 3rd-place Eastern playoff spot.  Maybe the boys in the back room should calculate the odds of that!  Anyways, Hamilton beat Montreal 24-17, and the teams are now tied in 2nd at 2-5.  With Montreal moving down the field on the final drive and just enough time left for one play, quarterback Trevor Harris was removed from the game by the injury spotters after a hit that resulted in a roughness penalty, and backup QB Dominique Davis threw an interception to end the game.

In the Friday night game, British Columbia headed to Saskatchewan, with two teams heading in opposite directions.  Despite holding a 17-4 lead in the second quarter, Saskatchewan lost to BC 32-17.  Lions QB Nathan Rourke had an astounding game, completing 27 of his 33 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for a third TD.  The BC defense also recorded four sacks on Rider QB Cody Fajardo, who went 18 for 27 and only 168 yards.

The most anticipated game of the weekend had undefeated Winnipeg travelling to Calgary to face the second-place Stampeders.  In a game that did not disappoint, Winnipeg beat Calgary 35-28.  Calgary had held the lead 28-25 with four and a half minutes left in the game, but Winnipeg came through.  Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros went 22 for 33 for 270 yards and four touchdowns.  Bombers running back Brady Oliveira broke the 100 yard rushing mark, picking up 110 yards on 15 carries.

And in the least anticipated game of the weekend, winless Ottawa headed to Toronto to face the first-place Argonauts.  In a surprise, Ottawa defeated Toronto 23-13.  Ottawa QB Caleb Evans completed 24 of 29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns, while his Toronto counterpart, McLeod Bethel-Thompson went 24 of 40 for 340 yards and one touchdown.  Toronto failed to score in the second half of the game.

Week 8 Results

Montreal 17  at Hamilton 24
British Columbia 32  at Saskatchewan 17
Winnipeg 35  at Calgary 28
Ottawa 23  at Toronto 13

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg continues to be the top ranked team by far, with a huge 1630 McDonald CFL Power Ratings ratings points, with second-ranked Calgary sitting 86 points behind at 1544.  British Columbia moved up the rankings with their win over Saskatchewan, swapping places with the Riders who now dropped down to fourth.  Toronto is the top-ranked Eastern team in fifth place, as they are the only Eastern team above the 1500 average rating, albeit only at 1506.  Despite their surprising win over Toronto this week, Ottawa remains mired at the bottom of the rankings, but they have moved above the 1400 point stink line, now sitting at 1411 points.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1630 (▲12)	8-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1544 (▼12)	4-2, T-3rd West
3 (▲2)	British Columbia	1521 (▲15)	5-1, 2nd West
4 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1511 (▼15)	4-4, T-3rd West
5 (▼1)	Toronto	1506 (▼18)	3-3, 1st East
6 (▲1)	Hamilton	1482 (▲11)	2-5, T-2nd East
7 (▼1)	Montreal	1467 (▼11)	2-5, T-2nd East
8	Edmonton	1447	2-5, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1411 (▲19)	1-6, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg’s odds of winning the Grey Cup went up significantly this week after their win over 2nd-ranked Calgary, jumping 5 percentage points to 40%!  Toronto, being the top team in the East, has been calculated to have the 2nd best chance of winning at 16%, a drop of 3% from last week.  The two last-place teams, Ottawa and Edmonton, both saw their chances of winning it all doubling, from 1% all the way up to 2%!  Saskatchewan, despite hosting the Grey Cup this year, have now seen their chances of winning it drop to 7%.

Overall, there’s a 68% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1630	40% (▲5)
2	Toronto	1506	16% (▼3)
3	Calgary	1544	11% (▼3)
4 (▲2)	British Columbia	1521	9% (▲2)
5 (▲2)	Hamilton	1482	8% (▲3)
6 (▼2)	Saskatchewan	1511	7% (▼2)
7 (▼2)	Montreal	1467	6% (▼2)
T-8	Ottawa	1411	2% (▲1)
T-8	Edmonton	1447	2% (▲1)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 8-0, 1st in West	1630	>99%	98%	87%	95%	62%	40%
Toronto 3-3, 1st in East	1506	84%	80%	58%	72%	41%	16%
Calgary 4-2, T-3rd in West	1544	93%	45%	4%	50%	19%	11%
British Columbia 5-1, 2nd in West	1521	94%	46%	8%	48%	17%	9%
Hamilton 2-5, T-2nd in East	1482	56%	51%	21%	41%	21%	8%
Saskatchewan 4-4, T-3rd in West	1511	69%	10%	1%	33%	13%	7%
Montreal 2-5, T-2nd in East	1467	57%	50%	16%	38%	18%	6%
Ottawa 1-6, 4th in East	1411	22%	18%	5%	13%	6%	2%
Edmonton 2-5, 5th in West	1447	26%	1%	<1%	11%	4%	2%

Week 9 Game Predictions

Thursday: Winnipeg (65%) at Montreal (34%)
Friday: Calgary (61%) at Ottawa (38%)
Saturday: Hamilton (40%) at Toronto (59%)
Saturday: Edmonton (33%) at British Columbia (66%)

Week 7 of the CFL regular season saw Winnipeg expand its dominance, Ottawa expand its ineptitude, and Saskatchewan dropping like a rock.

On Thursday night, 1-4 Montreal travelled to Ottawa to face the winless RedBlacks.  In a topsy-turvy game, Montreal beat Ottawa 40-33.  Ottawa led 8-0 after the first quarter, Montreal led 18-14 at the half, Ottawa led after 3 quarters 26-25, but Montreal took the lead with 15 4th quarter points and took the victory when Ottawa dropped a pass in the endzone on their final drive.  Quarterback Trevor Harris led Montreal, completing 25 of 31 passes for 341 yards and two touchdowns, and running back Dominique Davis scored three touchdowns on the ground.

In the second game of the Thursday night doubleheader, struggling Hamilton visited up-and-coming British Columbia.  In a low scoring game, BC defeated Hamilton 17-12.  BC QB Nathan Rourke completed 22 of 30 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns, and receiver Lucky Whitehead caught 8 of those passes for 111 yards and a touchdown.  Neither team scored in the fourth quarter.

Friday night’s game saw undefeated Winnipeg face last-in-the-West Edmonton.  In an unsurprising result, Winnipeg beat Edmonton 24-10.  However, Edmonton quarterback Taylor Cornelius was the outstanding QB, completing 25 of his 42 passes for 270 yards but one interception, while Winnipeg QB, possibly the best quarterback in the CFL this year, only went 7 for 16 for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.  Cornelius’ game wasn’t helped by the fact that he was sacked five times.  Winnipeg receiver Dalton Schoen led all receivers with 146 receiving yards on just four receptions, one of which was an 81 yard touchdown.

The final game of the weekend was on Sunday, pushed back a day because 10 Rider players tested positive for COVID, including starting quarterback Cody Fajardo and backup QB Mason Fine.  As a result, third-stringer Jacob Dolegala got the call.  Although the Riders hoped to avenge last week’s loss to the Argos, it was not to be, as Toronto defeated Saskatchewan 31-21.  Toronto running back Andrew Harris rushed for 143 yards, giving him over 10,000 yards for his career, and quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson passed for 30 for 38 for 336 yards and two touchdowns.  Argo receiver Kurleigh Gittens Jr. caught 8 passes for 152 yards and a touchdown.  In his debut, Rider QB Dolegala was disappointing, going 13 for 28 for 131 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.  He did show signs of brilliance at times, but not enough.  The Rider highlight of the game was a missed 61 yard field goal attempt by the Argos, which Mario Alford returned 112 yards for a touchdown!

Week 7 Results

Montreal 40  at Ottawa 33
Hamilton 12  at British Columbia 17
Winnipeg 24  at Edmonton 10
Toronto 31  at Saskatchewan 21

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week.  Winnipeg continues to sit at the top with a league-best 7-0 record, and the top rating of 1618.  Calgary is next, far back with 1556 rating points, with Saskatchewan still in third, but at 1526, a drop of 28 points from two weeks ago.  Toronto is the top-ranked Eastern team, fourth ranked overall, just 2 rating points behind Saskatchewan.  With Montreal’s win over Ottawa and Hamilton’s loss to BC, Montreal and Hamilton swapped 6th and 7th places in our rankings.  Ottawa’s rating has dropped to 1392, making them by far the lowest ranked team (Edmonton is 8th at 1447), and they now sit 8 points below the “stink line.”

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1618 (▲9)	7-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1556	4-1, T-2nd West
3	Saskatchewan	1526 (▼15)	4-3, T-2nd West
4	Toronto	1524 (▲16)	3-2, 1st East
5	British Columbia	1506 (▲10)	4-1, T-2nd West
6 (▲1)	Montreal	1478 (▲12)	2-4, 2nd East
7 (▼1)	Hamilton	1471 (▼10)	1-5, 3rd East
8	Edmonton	1447 (▼9)	2-5, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1392 (▼12)	0-6, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Undefeated Winnipeg remains the team to beat, with the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team giving them a 35% chance of winning the Grey Cup, up 3 percentage points from last week.  Toronto has the second best chance of winning, with a 19% chance.  Overall, there’s a 67% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1618	35%(▲3)
2	Toronto	1524	19% (▲3)
3	Calgary	1556	14% (▼1)
4	Saskatchewan	1526	9% (▼4)
5 (▲1)	Montreal	1478	8% (▲1)
6 (▲1)	British Columbia	1506	7% (▲1)
7 (▼2)	Hamilton	1471	5% (▼3)
T-8	Edmonton	1447	1%
T-8	Ottawa	1392	1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 7-0, 1st in West	1618	>99%	93%	75%	89%	56%	35%
Toronto 3-2, 1st in East	1524	92%	90%	69%	82%	48%	19%
Calgary 4-1, T-2nd in West	1556	95%	57%	15%	58%	25%	14%
Saskatchewan 4-3, T-2nd in West	1526	81%	20%	4%	40%	16%	9%
Montreal 2-4, 2nd in East	1478	70%	65%	18%	47%	21%	8%
British Columbia 4-1, T-2nd in West	1506	86%	29%	6%	41%	15%	7%
Hamilton 1-5, 3rd in East	1471	41%	36%	10%	27%	13%	5%
Edmonton 2-5, 5th in West	1447	24%	1%	<1%	10%	4%	1%
Ottawa 0-6, 4th in East	1392	11%	9%	2%	6%	2%	1%

Week 8 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (44%) at Hamilton (55%)
Friday: British Columbia (40%) at Saskatchewan (59%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (51%) at Calgary (48%)
Sunday: Ottawa (26%) at Toronto (73%)

In a rare weekend of football, two Eastern Division teams won games, giving them 4 in the first 6 weeks of the season.

In the Thursday Night Football game, Edmonton surprised Montreal 32-31.  Montreal led 31-12 late in the 3rd quarter, but three pass interference calls against Montreal defensive back Wesley Sutton turned the tide, and Edmonton came away with the win.  The first pass interference call against Sutton came in the endzone, resulting in a 20 yard penalty and Edmonton ended up with a touchdown but no convert.  The second was a 38 yard penalty, again leading up to an Elks touchdown, this time with the convert.  The third penalty was for 50 yards, once again leading to an Edmonton TD.  So, one player, 108 yards in penalties, resulting in 20 points!  That third one gave Edmonton the 32-31 lead, and they held it for the victory.

Friday night’s game was a battle of the two top-ranked McDonald CFL Power Ratings teams, as undefeated Calgary headed to Winnipeg to face the undefeated defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  In a close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Calgary 26-19.  In the final minute, trailing 26-19, Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell passed to receiver Kamar Jorden in the end zone.  Jorden appeared to make an incredible catch, but as he hit the ground, the ball bounced out of his hands and Winnipeg DB Demerio Houston made a shoestring interception to shut down Calgary’s final drive.  Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros completed 27 of his 38 passes for 315 yards, with Greg Ellingson catching 11 of those passes for 152 yards.  For the Stampeders, running back Ka’Deem Carey rushed for 110 yards on only 12 carries.

There were two games on Saturday, with the first being Touchdown Atlantic, with Saskatchewan and Toronto facing each other in Wolfville, Nova Scotia, home of the Acadia University Axemen.  In an upset, Toronto beat Saskatchewan 30-24.  With the Riders leading 24-22 and trying to move the ball downfield to run out the clock, quarterback Cody Fajardo threw an interception that Argo linebacker Wynton McManis ran back for a 49 yard pick-six.  Toronto followed it up with a two point convert to lead 30-24, and as Saskatchewan was making their final drive, Fajardo threw another interception and the Argonauts came away with the victory.

The last game of the weekend saw the Ottawa RedBlacks visit the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in a battle of two 0-4 teams, tied for the last playoff spot in the East.  Yes, really.  In a game that I had absolutely no interest in watching, Hamilton defeated Ottawa 25-23.  Hamilton quarterback Dane Evans passed for 342 yards and two touchdowns, one of which gave the Ti-Cats the lead with 34 seconds left.  Ottawa had a final chance to win it with a 54 yard field goal as time ran out, but the kick came up short and Hamilton had their first victory of the season.

Week 6 Results

Edmonton 32  at Montreal 31
Calgary 19  at Winnipeg 26
Saskatchewan 24  at Toronto 30
Ottawa 23  at Hamilton 25

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There wasn’t much changes in our power rankings.  Winnipeg, Calgary, and Saskatchewan remain at the top of the rankings.  With Toronto’s surprising win over Saskatchewan, the Argos swapped places with British Columbia, with the Lions dropping to 5th.  Hamilton’s win over Ottawa combined with Montreal’s unexpected loss to Edmonton resulted Hamilton and Montreal swapping places as well, with Hamilton now ranked 6th and Montreal 7th.  Ottawa remains mired at the bottom of our rankins with their 0-5 record.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1609 (▲10)	6-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1556 (▼9)	4-1, T-2nd West
3	Saskatchewan	1541 (▼13)	4-2, T-2nd West
4 (▲1)	Toronto	1508 (▲13)	2-2, 1st East
5 (▼1)	British Columbia	1496	3-1, 4th West
6 (▲1)	Hamilton	1481 (▲9)	1-4, T-2nd East
7 (▼1)	Montreal	1466 (▼16)	1-4, T-2nd East
8	Edmonton	1456 (▲16)	2-4, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1404 (▼9)	0-5, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

We made some tweaks to our mathematical model, and that resulted in larger than expected changes in Grey Cup winning probabilities.  Winnipeg remains the favourite with a 32% chance of winning, twice the probability of 2nd most-likely Toronto.  It must be nice to be an Eastern team, as your chances of making the Grey Cup are pretty good!  Calgary is 3rd most likely at 15%, followed by Saskatchewan at 13%.  Least likely to win remains Edmonton, now tied with Ottawa for last place with a 2% win probability.

Overall, there’s a 68% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1609	32% (▼1)
2 (▲3)	Toronto	1508	16% (▲6)
3 (▼1)	Calgary	1556	15% (▼4)
4 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1541	13% (▲1)
5 (▲1)	Hamilton	1481	8%
6 (▼2)	Montreal	1466	7% (▼4)
7 (▲1)	British Columbia	1496	6% (▲3)
T-8 (▼1)	Ottawa	1404	2% (▼3)
T-8 (▲1)	Edmonton	1456	2% (▲2)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 6-0, 1st in West	1609	99%	88%	66%	85%	51%	32%
Toronto 2-2, 1st in East	1508	84%	82%	57%	72%	41%	16%
Calgary 4-1, T-2nd in West	1556	94%	55%	18%	58%	26%	15%
Saskatchewan 4-2, T-2nd in West	1541	87%	33%	10%	47%	21%	13%
Hamilton 1-4, T-2nd in East	1481	53%	49%	20%	39%	20%	8%
Montreal 1-4, T-2nd in East	1466	56%	51%	18%	38%	18%	7%
British Columbia 3-1, 4th in West	1496	75%	21%	5%	35%	13%	6%
Ottawa 0-5, 4th in East	1404	21%	18%	5%	12%	5%	2%
Edmonton 2-4, 5th in West	1456	31%	3%	<1%	13%	5%	2%

Week 7 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (51%) at Ottawa (48%)
Thursday: Hamilton (41%) at British Columbia (58%)
Friday: Winnipeg (63%) at Edmonton (36%)
Saturday: Toronto (38%) at Saskatchewan (61%)

It was a quieter week in the CFL last week, as there were only three games played.  All five Western teams played, but only Ottawa played from the East.

Thursday night’s game featured the Battle of Alberta, as Calgary travelled north to visit Edmonton.  Being ever the gracious hosts, Edmonton was soundly defeated by Calgary, 49-6.  Calgary is now 4-0, while Edmonton falls to 1-4.  The game was interrupted by a huge rainstorm, but that didn’t slow Calgary down.  Bo Levi Mitchell, the Calgary quarterback, completed 17 of 22 passes for 279 yards and two touchdowns, and receiver Malik Henry caught 6 passes for 150 yards, one of those being an 89 yard touchdown.  On the ground, running back Ka’Deem Carey gained 104 yards on 12 carries, and on defense, Calgary had two interceptions, three sacks, and two fumble recoveries, one of which resulted in a 63 yard touchdown.  Edmonton went through three quarterbacks, with two of them leaving the game due to injury.

Friday Night Football saw Ottawa heading to Regina to face the Saskatchewan Roughriders.  Saskatchewan defeated Ottawa 28-13, but the game was marred by an injury to Ottawa quarterback Jeremiah Masoli late in the game after a low hit by Rider lineman Garrett Marino.  Although the hit didn’t seem intentional, Marino made it worse by celebrating the hit over top of the injured Masoli, then uttered a racial epithet directed at the RedBlack quarterback.  Masoli required surgery and is expected to miss 12 weeks, while Marino was suspended for a CFL-record 4 games.  To this commentator, the punishment doesn’t seem sufficient to fit the crime; more appropriate would be a season-long suspension.

Saturday saw the final game of the week, with top-ranked Winnipeg heading to British Columbia to face the up-and-coming Lions.  Although it was expected to be a test for the Bombers, it wasn’t, as Winnipeg won 43-22 over BC.  Bomber QB Zach Collaros went 23 for 30 for 288 yards and three touchdowns, with receiver Dalton Schoen catching 8 of those for 117 yards and two touchdowns.  On defense, Winnipeg made three interceptions, one fumble recovery, and one sack, and on special teams, Janarion Grant returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown.  On the BC side, quarterback Nathan Rourke passed for 278 yards and three touchdowns, although he also threw two interceptions.

The big game coming up this weekend is the Touchdown Atlantic game, with Saskatchewan and Toronto travelling to Wolfville, Nova Scotia, to play the first CFL game ever in Nova Scotia on Saturday afternoon.

Week 5 Results

Calgary 49  at Edmonton 6
Ottawa 13  at Saskatchewan 28
Winnipeg 43  at British Columbia 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There were no changes to the rankings this week, although Toronto, being idle, closed the gap on BC following the Lions’ loss to Winnipeg.  Sadly, only three teams are rated above the 1500 average ranking, and all three of those teams are in the West.  The league seems quite unbalanced, with the top 4 teams all coming from the West, and all Eastern teams being ranked below average.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1599 (▲12)	5-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1565 (▲10)	4-0, T-2nd West
3	Saskatchewan	1554 (▲7)	4-1, T-2nd West
4	British Columbia	1496 (▼11)	3-1, 4th West
5	Toronto	1495	1-2, T-1st East
6	Montreal	1482	1-3, T-1st East
7	Hamilton	1472	0-4, T-3rd East
8	Edmonton	1440 (▼10)	1-4, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1413 (▼6)	0-4, T-3rd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the Grey Cup favourite, now with a 33% chance of winning the Cup, up 4% from last week.  Calgary follows with a 19% chance.  British Columbia were the only team to change in their chances, dropping 5 percentage points down to 3%, a result of playing in that tough Western Division.  Montreal has the most chance of winning it from the East, with an 11% probability.

Overall, there’s a 67% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1599	33% (▲4)
2	Calgary	1555	19% (▲2)
3	Saskatchewan	1554	12%
4	Montreal	1482	11%
5	Toronto	1495	10%
6	Hamilton	1472	8%
7 (▲1)	Ottawa	1413	5%
8 (▼2)	British Columbia	1496	3% (▼5)
9	Edmonton	1440	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 5-0, 1st in West	1599	99%	77%	50%	77%	50%	33%
Calgary 4-0, T-2nd in West	1565	97%	60%	29%	60%	29%	19%
Saskatchewan 4-1, T-2nd in West	1554	93%	43%	16%	43%	16%	12%
Montreal 1-3, T-1st in East	1482	70%	65%	32%	65%	33%	11%
Toronto 1-2, T-1st in East	1495	74%	71%	42%	71%	28%	10%
Hamilton 0-4, T-3rd in East	1472	44%	40%	17%	40%	23%	8%
Ottawa 0-4, T-3rd in East	1413	28%	25%	9%	25%	16%	5%
British Columbia 3-1, 4th in West	1496	77%	18%	5%	18%	5%	3%
Edmonton 1-4, 5th in West	1440	19%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%

Week 6 Game Predictions

Thursday: Edmonton (37%) at Montreal (62%)
Friday: Calgary (38%) at Winnipeg (61%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (57%) at Toronto (42%)
Saturday: Ottawa (35%) at Hamilton (64%)

Yet another exciting weekend of games in the CFL this week, although there weren’t many surprises in the final results.  The West continues their dominance of the East, as Western teams defeated Eastern teams in all four games this weekend.  And Winnipeg remains at the top of the field, despite a squeaker over Toronto on the 4th of July game (why is the CANADIAN Football League celebrating the US Independence Day???).

The weekend started off with Thursday Night Football, where British Columbia travelled to Ottawa to face the RedBlacks in the nation’s capital.  It was probably a good idea to avoid conflicting with the Canada Day celebrations, as British Columbia triumphed over Ottawa 34-31.  BC’s young Canadian quarterback, Nathan Rourke, continued to impress, going 23 for 31 and 359 yards and throwing two touchdowns, despite throwing two interceptions and losing the ball once on a fumble.  He also scored a touchdown on the ground, rambling for 50 yards for the score!  The Lions offense also benefited from receiver Keon Hatcher catching seven passes for 166 yards and a touchdown, and running back James Butler running for 129 yards and two touchdowns.  Ottawa was led by their defense, especially DB Monshadrik Hunter who made two interceptions and recovered a fumble, as the RedBlack defense scored 17 points off turnovers.

Friday’s Canada Day game saw Edmonton travel to Hamilton, as two 0-3 teams faced off.  In a surprise to the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team, Edmonton came back and defeated Hamilton 29-25.  Edmonton trailed Hamilton 22-9 in the third quarter, but their defense came up strong, as defensive back Jalen Collins returned a fumble for the winning touchdown with less than two minutes to go in the game.  Hamilton pretty much self-destructed at the end of the game, as two passes bounced out of the hands of Ticat receivers for interceptions late in the game.  Edmonton quarterback Tre Ford, another Canadian quarterback, got his first career start for the Elks, and went 15 for 26 for 159 yards, as well as rushed for 61 yards on 6 carries.

Saturday saw Montreal travel to Saskatchewan.  Playing at home, Saskatchewan looked to avenge last week’s 37-13 loss in Montreal, and they did, as the Riders convincingly defeated the Alouettes 41-20.  Sadly, the Rider offense looked ineffective in the first half, as they trailed 13-11 30 minutes in.  But, they switched up their game plan, and used running back Jamal Morrow to good effect as he gained 103 yards on 16 carries and scored a touchdown.  But it was the Saskatchewan defense that made the difference in this game, as they made two interceptions, recovered two fumbles, and sacked the Als quarterback six times!

And in an odd scheduling choice, the weekend ended on a Monday with top-ranked, undefeated Winnipeg playing in Toronto against the best team in the East, as the Argonauts held a 1-1 record.  In a surprisingly close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Toronto 23-22.  As the game wound down, Toronto trailed by 7 points, and they engineered a last minute final drive for a touchdown to make the game 23-22, but they missed the convert and Winnipeg left Toronto with the victory.  The defense was the star of the show for the Blue Bombers, as they had three sacks, two interceptions, and one fumble recovery, with one of the interceptions being a pick-six on Toronto’s opening drive of the game.

Week 4 Results

British Columbia 34  at Ottawa 31
Edmonton 29  at Hamilton 25
Montreal 20  at Saskatchewan 41
Winnipeg 23  at Toronto 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

As they have been all year, Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings.  The only change in the rankings was British Columbia and Toronto swapping places for 4th and 5th, as 4 of the 5 Western teams hold down the top spots in the rankings.  The fifth place team in the West, Edmonton, would be tied for first if they were in the Eastern Division, as their 1-3 record would be impressive for an Eastern team.  All four Eastern teams now have ratings below the 1500 average rating, and four of the Western teams are above the average.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1587 (▲12)	4-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1555	3-0, T-2nd West
3	Saskatchewan	1547 (▲9)	3-1, T-2nd West
4 (▲1)	British Columbia	1507 (▲12)	3-0, T-2nd West
5 (▼1)	Toronto	1495 (▼12)	1-2, T-1st East
6	Montreal	1482 (▼9)	1-3, T-1st East
7	Hamilton	1472 (▼16)	0-4, T-3rd East
8	Edmonton	1450 (▲16)	1-3, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1419 (▼12)	0-3, T-3rd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, as we’ve calculated they now have a 29% chance of winning it all.  That’s up 4% points from last week.  They’ll face a test this weekend as they travel to British Columbia to face the hot 3-0 Lions.  The only other big change in the chances this week was to Calgary, as their chances of winning dropped 3 percentage points, despite not playing this weekend!  It’s tough playing in the same division as the Blue Bombers!

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 3% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1587	29% (▲4)
2	Calgary	1555	17% (▼3)
3 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1547	12% (▲1)
4 (▼1)	Montreal	1482	11% (▼1)
5	Toronto	1495	10%
T-6	Hamilton	1472	8% (▼1)
T-6 (▲1)	British Columbia	1507	8% (▲1)
8	Ottawa	1419	5% (▼1)
9	Edmonton	1450	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 4-0, 1st in West	1587	96%	69%	44%	69%	44%	29%
Calgary 3-0, T-2nd in West	1555	91%	53%	26%	53%	26%	17%
Saskatchewan 3-1, T-2nd in West	1547	88%	41%	17%	41%	17%	12%
Montreal 1-3, T-1st in East	1482	68%	63%	31%	63%	32%	11%
Toronto 1-2, T-1st in East	1495	73%	70%	42%	70%	28%	10%
Hamilton 0-4, T-3rd in East	1472	43%	39%	16%	39%	23%	8%
British Columbia 3-0, T-2nd in West	1507	82%	32%	13%	32%	13%	8%
Ottawa 0-3, T-3rd in East	1419	32%	28%	11%	28%	17%	5%
Edmonton 1-3, 5th in West	1450	27%	4%	1%	4%	1%	<1%

Week 5 Game Predictions

Thursday: Calgary (58%) at Edmonton (42%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at Saskatchewan (74%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (54%) at British Columbia (46%)