Tag: ratings

It’s been another interesting week in the NHL.  Lots of exciting games, some weak teams beating some better teams, and no games from Vancouver due to COVID.  Because of Vancouver’s COVID troubles, the season has been extended again, now to May 16th, with the Canucks playing the last 3 games on the schedule.

Colorado remains in top spot in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.  They are the first team this year to rise above the 1600 rating mark, gaining 9 points to 1604.  They went 3-1-0, splitting a pair with 8th-ranked Minnesota, then beating 30th-ranked Anaheim twice.  They are also the favourite to win the President’s Trophy, which we’re giving them a 38% chance of doing, and the Stanley Cup, at 17%.  With games next week against St. Louis, Arizona, and Los Angeles (19th, 20th, and 21st!), we expect to see them improve their rating even higher.

Tampa Bay and Washington exchanged spots this week, with Tampa Bay now at number 2 and Washington at 3.  Tampa Bay started the week with a loss to 27th-ranked Columbus, but turned around 2 nights later to beat them, then ended the week with a shutout win over 16th-ranked Nashville.  Washington didn’t have such a good week, going 2-2-0, losing to the Islanders (10th) and Boston (11th), squeaking by the league-worst Sabres 4-3, and finishing the week with a strong 8-1 drubbing of Boston.

Pittsburgh has come out of nowhere to move into the top 5 for the first time this season.  They moved up 4 ranking spots last week, and now sit in 4th.  They had a 3-1-0 record last week, splitting a pair with the 14th-ranked Rangers, then beating 26th-ranked New Jersey twice.  They look to have an easy week next week, playing fading 16th-ranked Philadelphia once and lowly Buffalo twice.

Rounding out the top 5 is Toronto, who return to the top 5 with a big jump from 12th last week.  They went 3-0-0, beating Calgary, Montreal, and Ottawa.  They have been looking strong in the games I’ve watched.

The biggest jump in ratings this week was 11th-ranked Winnipeg, picking up 21 rating points with a win against Ottawa and two against Montreal.  They start next week with two games against 29th-ranked Ottawa, but then face a tough test with games against Toronto and 9th-ranked Edmonton.

The biggest drop in the ratings came from Montreal, losing 22 rating points and dropping to 18th in the rankings.  However, we do still give them an 84% chance of making the playoffs!  They went 1-3-0 this week, beating Edmonton in overtime, but then losing to Toronto once and Winnipeg twice.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1604, ▲9)

Record: 28-9-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 38% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• April 5: Won 5-4 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• April 7: Lost 8-3 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• April 9: Won 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1407)
• April 11: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1407)

Next week:

• April 12: vs. Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1486)
• April 14: @ St. Louis Blues (19th, 1487)
• April 16: vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1470)
• April 18: vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1470)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1568, ▲4)

Record: 28-11-2, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• April 6: Lost 4-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1451)
• April 8: Won 6-4 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1451)
• April 10: Won 3-0 @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1490)

Next week:

• April 13: @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1490)
• April 15: vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1521)
• April 17: vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1521)

3. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1566, ▼3)

Record: 27-11-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• April 6: Lost 1-0 @ New York Islanders (10th, 1540)
• April 8: Lost 4-2 vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)
• April 9: Won 4-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• April 11: Won 8-1 @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)

Next week:

• April 13: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
• April 15: vs. Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• April 17: @ Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
• April 18: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)

4. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲4 (1556, ▲14)

Record: 27-13-2, 3rd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-1-0

• April 6: Lost 8-4 @ New York Rangers (14th, 1518)
• April 8: Won 5-2 @ New York Rangers (14th, 1518)
• April 9: Won 6-4 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1454)
• April 11: Won 5-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1454)

Next week:

• April 15: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
• April 17: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• April 18: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)

5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲7 (1555, ▲17)

Record: 28-10-3, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲9)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 5: Won 5-3 @ Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
• April 7: Won 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (18th, 1488)
• April 10: Won 6-5 vs. Ottawa Senators (29th, 1411)

Next week:

• April 12: @ Montreal Canadiens (18th, 1488)
• April 13: vs. Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
• April 15: vs. Winnipeg Jets (11th, 1539)
• April 17: @ Vancouver Canucks (25th, 1462)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1604 (▲9)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1568 (▲4)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1566 (▼3)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      1556 (▲14)
 5       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲7)      1555 (▲17)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights          1554 (▲10)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes           1553 (▲10)
 8       Minnesota Wild (▼4)           1543 (▼7)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1542 (▲3)
10       New York Islanders (▼5)       1540 (▼5)
11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            1539 (▼1)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1539 (▲21)
13       Florida Panthers (▼4)         1521 (▼20)
14       New York Rangers (▲1)         1518 (▲9)
15       Dallas Stars (▲3)             1503 (▲9)
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      1490 (▼1)
16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1490 (▼5)
18       Montreal Canadiens (▼4)       1488 (▼22)
19       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1487 (▲9)
20       Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          1486 (▼11)
21       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1470 (▲2)
22       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1469 (▼12)
23       Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1466 (▲7)
24       Calgary Flames                1464 (▲2)
25       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1462
26       New Jersey Devils (▼4)        1454 (▼16)
27       Columbus Blue Jackets         1451 (▼5)
28       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1425 (▼4)
29       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1411 (▼21)
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1407 (▲1)
31       Buffalo Sabres                1406 (▲9)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      46% (▲15)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           46% (▲7)
 3       Florida Panthers              7% (▼23)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           43% (▼10)
 2       New York Islanders            27% (▲3)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           26% (▲11)
 4       Boston Bruins                 4% (▼4)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            73% (▲8)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          24% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                3% (▼11)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           78% (▲11)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 17% (▲4)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          4% (▼9)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼8)
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Nashville Predators           53% (▲5)
 5       Dallas Stars                  27% (▼1)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks            20%
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         1% (▼2)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       99% (▲3)
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      99% (▲4)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           99%
 4       Boston Bruins                 84%
 5       New York Rangers              14% (▲1)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      6% (▼7)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     >99% (▲1)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           99%
 4       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          43% (▲25)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          30% (▼16)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          15% (▼10)
 7       Los Angeles Kings             12% (▼1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            >99% (▲2)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          99% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            84% (▼8)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             9% (▲2)
 6       Calgary Flames                8% (▲3)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            38% (▲7)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      15% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      15% (▲9)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      14% (▼1)
 5       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     9% (▲2)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼2)      4% (▼6)
 7       New York Islanders (▲2)       2% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼4)         1% (▼9)
 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1%
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            17% (▲1)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      10% (▲1)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      9% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           8% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5)      7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     7% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼4)          5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼4)           5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4)       5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            5% (▲1)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4% (▼1)
12 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼8)         4% (▼2)
14       Montreal Canadiens            2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1%
15 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
15 (tie) New York Rangers              1%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
15 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲6)          1% (▲1)
20 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
20 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼5)          <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%

 

We have a new team at the top of the rankings this week.  Colorado has taken over top spot from Washington, rising 19 rating points to 1595.  They have quite the lead over Washington now, as the Capitals dropped 9 points down to 1569.  Tampa Bay and Minnesota remain in the top 5, while Vegas has dropped to sixth, and have been replaced in the top 5 by the New York Islanders.

Colorado had a big week, going 4-0-0.  They beat 30th-ranked Anaheim, 16th-ranked Arizona (9-3!), and 21st-ranked St. Louis twice.

Washington had an average week, going 2-2-0.  They started the week with two losses in New York, first to the 15th-ranked Rangers, then to the 5th-ranked Islanders, giving up 8 goals.  They finished the week with two wins over New Jersey, the first one in overtime.

Tampa Bay had a very easy schedule, but only managed a 2-2-0 record.  They split a pair with 27th-ranked Columbus, then also split a pair with 29th-ranked Detroit.

Minnesota went 2-1-1.  They started the week losing twice to 20th-ranked San Jose, once in a shootout.  But then, they turned it around by beating 6th-ranked Vegas twice, with one of those wins also coming in a shootout.

Rounding out the top 5 are the New York Islanders, who went 2-1-0, with a loss to 8th-ranked Pittsburgh, a win against Washington, and a shootout win against 17th-ranked Philadelphia.

San Jose had the best week this week, picking up 27 rating points and moving up from 27th to 20th place in the rankings.  They went 4-0-0, beating 4th-ranked Minnesota twice, with one of those wins coming in a shootout, then beating 23rd-ranked Los Angeles twice.

The playoff teams seem to be firming up.  Looking at the chances of making the playoffs (or not), if a team has greater than a 99% chance, I consider them a sure thing, as they’ve got less than a 1 in 100 chance of not making the playoffs.  If a team has a greater than 90% chance, I consider it pretty likely, although there is still a 1 in 10 chance of them not making the playoffs.  And if a team has less than a 1% chance, I don’t see much chance that they can turn it around and make the playoffs, although there is still a slim chance.  Let’s look at each of the divisions.

In the Central Division, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay are all considered shoe-ins.  There are still 3 other teams that have a reasonable chance of grabbing the last playoff spot, with Nashville most likely at 48%, Dallas at 28%, and Chicago at 9%.  And it looks like a three-way race for the top spot, with Tampa Bay favoured at 39%, but Carolina (31%) and Florida (30%) have almost as good a shot at it.

In the East Division, nobody is a sure thing, although Washington (99%), New York Islanders (96%), and Pittsburgh (95%) are pretty likely.  Boston is expected to get the fourth spot with an 84% chance, but the Rangers and Philadelphia (both at 13%) can’t be counted out yet.  Washington has a 53% chance of winning the division.

In the West Division, Colorado (>99%), Minnesota (99%), and Vegas (also 99%) look to take the top 3 spots.  But it’s close after that.  Arizona has a 46% chance of making the playoffs, followed by San Jose at 25%, St. Louis at 18%, and Los Angeles at 13%.  Only Anaheim is being counted out in that division.

In the North Division, it looks like the playoff teams have been mostly decided.  Toronto is a sure thing, whereas Edmonton (98%), Winnipeg (also 98%), and Montreal (92%) are pretty sure of making the playoffs.  Having an outside shot are still Vancouver at 7% and Calgary at 5%.  Vancouver’s got no chance.  And we’re giving Toronto a 67% chance of winning the division.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche ▲2 (1595, ▲19)

Record: 25-8-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 31% (▲22)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲5)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 29: Won 5-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)
• March 31: Won 9-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1497)
• April 2: Won 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)
• April 3: Won 2-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)

Next week:

• April 5: @ Minnesota Wild (4th, 1550)
• April 7: @ Minnesota Wild (4th, 1550)
• April 9: @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)
• April 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)

2. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1569, ▼9)

Record: 25-9-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼2)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 30: Lost 5-2 @ New York Rangers (15th, 1509)
• April 1: Lost 8-4 @ New York Islanders (5th, 1545)
• April 2: Won in OT 2-1 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1470)
• April 4: Won 5-4 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1470)

Next week:

• April 6: @ New York Islanders (5th, 1545)
• April 8: vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1540)
• April 9: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1397)
• April 11: @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1540)

3. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1564, ▼13)

Record: 26-10-2, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▼13)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼3)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 30: Lost 3-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 1: Won 3-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 3: Won 2-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1429)
• April 4: Lost 5-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1429)

Next week:

• April 6: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 8: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 10: @ Nashville Predators (19th, 1491)

4. Minnesota Wild ▲1 (1550)

Record: 23-11-2, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 29: Lost in SO 4-3 @ San Jose Sharks (20th, 1481)
• March 31: Lost 4-2 @ San Jose Sharks (20th, 1481)
• April 1: Won in SO 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1544)
• April 3: Won 2-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1544)

Next week:

• April 5: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1595)
• April 7: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1595)
• April 9: @ St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)
• April 10: @ St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)

5. New York Islanders ▲1 (1545, ▼2)

Record: 24-10-4, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 29: Lost 2-1 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1542)
• April 1: Won 8-4 vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1569)
• April 3: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1495)

Next week:

• April 6: vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1569)
• April 8: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1495)
• April 9: vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1509)
• April 11: vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1509)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       1595 (▲19)
 2       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1569 (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1564 (▼13)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1550
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       1545 (▼2)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     1544 (▼15)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1543 (▼4)
 8       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1542 (▲8)
 9       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1541 (▲12)
10       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1540 (▼3)
11       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1539 (▼2)
12       Toronto Maple Leafs           1538 (▲16)
13       Winnipeg Jets                 1518 (▼1)
14       Montreal Canadiens            1510 (▲3)
15       New York Rangers              1509 (▲4)
16       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1497 (▲1)
17       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1495 (▼9)
18       Dallas Stars (▲2)             1494 (▲13)
19       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1491 (▼4)
20       San Jose Sharks (▲7)          1481 (▲27)
21       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1478 (▼10)
22       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1470 (▼4)
23       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1468 (▼12)
24 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           1462 (▼19)
24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1462
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1459 (▼5)
27       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1456 (▼4)
28       Ottawa Senators               1432 (▲4)
29       Detroit Red Wings             1429 (▲5)
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1406 (▼10)
31       Buffalo Sabres                1397 (▲15)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           39% (▼15)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           31% (▼4)
 3       Florida Panthers              30% (▲19)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           53% (▼6)
 2       New York Islanders            24% (▲2)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           15% (▲5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 8% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       65% (▲32)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     21% (▼29)
 3       Minnesota Wild                14% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           67% (▲22)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          13% (▼6)
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 13% (▼12)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            8% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Nashville Predators           48% (▲3)
 5       Dallas Stars (▲1)             28% (▲8)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       20% (▼9)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         3% (▼4)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           99%
 2       New York Islanders            96% (▲1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           95% (▲5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 84% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         13% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           13% (▼8)
 7       New Jersey Devils             1% (▼1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1%

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       >99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           99% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     99% (▼1)
 4       Arizona Coyotes               46% (▲10)
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲2)          25% (▲19)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          18% (▼14)
 7       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        13% (▼17)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           >99% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          98% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 98% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            92% (▲9)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        7%
 6       Calgary Flames (▼1)           5% (▼15)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       31% (▲22)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      15% (▼13)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      12% (▼5)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         10% (▲7)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           10% (▼5)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     7% (▼10)
 7       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      6% (▲4)
 8       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           4%
 9       New York Islanders (▼2)       3%
10 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1%
10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       16% (▲5)
 2       Washington Capitals (▼1)      10% (▼2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      9% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      6% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          6%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲5)         6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           6%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       6%
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          6% (▼2)
11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            5%
11 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      5% (▲1)
13       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            4%
14       Montreal Canadiens            3%
15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1%
15 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
15 (tie) New York Rangers              1%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           1%
15 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲8)          1% (▲1)
21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
21 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼6)           <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼6)        <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
21 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6)          <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        <1%

 

For the first time this season, Tampa Bay or Boston are not at the top of our rankings.  That honour goes to Washington, who went 3-0-0 last week and have won 9 of their last 10 games.  Tampa Bay dropped to 2nd, after a four week run at the top, going 1-2-0 this week and a middling 6-4-0 in their last 10.  Rounding out the top 5 are Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota, all West Division teams!  On the bottom end, Buffalo extended their winless streak to 17 games, and of course are at the bottom of our rankings, now 34 rating points behind second-worst Anaheim.

Washington has had quite the run lately.  Back on February 14, they were ranked 13th and were in 4th place in the East Division.  Since then, they have gone 17-3-1 and now have a 59% chance of winning their division, the best chance of any team in the league.  They are also tied with Tampa Bay for favourites to win the Stanley Cup, both at 12%.  This week, they beat 23rd-ranked New Jersey twice and the 15th ranked Rangers once.  They’ve got four games coming up next week, starting the week facing the Rangers again, followed by the 6th-ranked Islanders, and then two more against New Jersey.

Tampa Bay went 1-2-0 last week, beating 20th-ranked Dallas, but then losing to them 2 days later, and finishing off the week with a loss to 6th-ranked Carolina.  They have an easy week coming up, playing two games against 26th-ranked Columbus, and then two games in two nights against 29th-ranked Detroit.  They’ll need to make the most of those games to regain the ratings lead, and to remain in top spot in the Central Division, as Carolina only trails them by 1 point (with one game in hand!) and Florida two points behind.  We do give them a >99% chance of making the playoffs, though.

Colorado went 2-0-2 this week.  Even though they gained 11 rating points, they still dropped down from 2nd to 3rd in our rankings.  They beat Arizona 5-1, then the next night lost to them 5-4 in a shootout.  Then they split a pair with Vegas, winning 5-1 but losing two days later in overtime 3-2.  Vegas went 2-1-0, winning their only non-Colorado game against St. Louis, 5-1.  Minnesota took a big jump in the ratings, gaining 14 rating points and jumping 4 spots in the rankings, going 3-0-0 this week, with two wins over Anaheim and one win against St. Louis.

The biggest mover this week was Nashville, going 4-0-0 with two wins against Detroit and two wins against Chicago.  Not the best teams in the league (29th and 24th, respectively), but they are teams that Nashville needs to beat to make the playoffs.  They gained 27 ratings points, and saw their chances of making the playoffs improve from 15% to 45%.  They are now sitting in 4th in the Central Division, with the same number of points and games played as Chicago, but they currently hold the last playoff spot by virtue of having more regulation wins.

On the downside, St. Louis dropped 24 rating points and Columbus lost 22.  St. Louis went 0-3-1, with their only point coming in a 3-2 overtime loss to 30th-ranked Anaheim.  Columbus also went 0-3-1, but they did pick up a point in a 4-3 overtime loss to 6th-ranked Carolina.

In other news, Montreal did not play at all this week, having their games postponed because of two players entering COVID protocols.  We’ll see how they do after their layoff this week, playing at home against Edmonton, then having a home-and-home series with Ottawa.  It’ll be interesting to see if their acquisition of Eric Staal helps, although we won’t know for a week as he’s in a 7-day COVID quarantine after entering Canada on Saturday.

One last bit of news: because of schedule changes due to the Montreal game postponements, the last day of the season is now May 11th.  The original schedule called for the season to finish on May 8th.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Washington Capitals ▲2 (1578, ▲15)

Record: 23-7-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 25: Won 4-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)
• March 26: Won 4-0 vs. New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)
• March 28: Won 5-4 vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1505)

Next week:

• March 30: @ New York Rangers (15th, 1505)
• April 1: @ New York Islanders (6th, 1547)
• April 2: @ New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)
• April 4: @ New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1577, ▼11)

Record: 24-8-2, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 28% (▼20)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• March 23: Won 2-1 @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1481)
• March 25: Lost 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1481)
• March 27: Lost 4-3 @ Carolina Hurricanes (6th, 1547)

Next week:

• March 30: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1460)
• April 1: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1460)
• April 3: vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1424)
• April 4: vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1424)

3. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1576, ▲11)

Record: 21-8-4, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-2

• March 22: Won 5-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1496)
• March 23: Lost in SO 5-4 @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1496)
• March 25: Won 5-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)
• March 27: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)

Next week:

• March 29: vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1416)
• March 31: vs. Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1496)
• April 2: vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)
• April 3: vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)

4. Vegas Golden Knights (1559, ▲1)

Record: 23-8-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 22: Won 5-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)
• March 25: Lost 5-1 @ Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1576)
• March 27: Won in OT 3-2 @ Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1576)

Next week:

• March 29: vs. Los Angeles Kings (22nd, 1480)
• March 31: vs. Los Angeles Kings (22nd, 1480)
• April 1: vs. Minnesota Wild (5th, 1550)
• April 3: vs. Minnesota Wild (5th, 1550)

5. Minnesota Wild ▲4 (1550, ▲14)

Record: 21-10-1, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 97% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 22: Won 2-1 vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1416)
• March 24: Won 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1416)
• March 25: Won 2-0 vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)

Next week:

• March 29: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1454)
• March 31: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1454)
• April 1: @ Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)
• April 3: @ Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)

Overall Ratings

 1       Washington Capitals (▲2)      1578 (▲15)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1577 (▼11)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1576 (▲11)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          1559 (▲1)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▲4)           1550 (▲14)
 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      1547 (▲14)
 6 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       1547 (▼6)
 8       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1543 (▼7)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1541
10       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1534 (▲15)
11       Florida Panthers (▼3)         1529 (▼8)
12       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1522 (▼1)
13       Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1519 (▲16)
14       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1507
15       New York Rangers (▲1)         1505 (▲1)
16       Philadelphia Flyers (▼3)      1504 (▼10)
17       Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          1496 (▲6)
18       Nashville Predators (▲6)      1495 (▲27)
19       St. Louis Blues (▼5)          1488 (▼24)
20 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           1481 (▼16)
20 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1481 (▼5)
22       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1480 (▼14)
23       New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1474 (▲9)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       1464
25       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        1462 (▼15)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1460 (▼22)
27       San Jose Sharks               1454 (▲3)
28       Ottawa Senators (▲2)          1428 (▲18)
29       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1424 (▲5)
30       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1416 (▲4)
31       Buffalo Sabres                1382 (▼17)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           54% (▼17)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           35% (▲20)
 3       Florida Panthers              11% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           59% (▲17)
 2       New York Islanders            22% (▼6)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      10% (▲3)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼1)            9% (▼10)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1% (▼2)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          50% (▼4)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            33% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                17% (▲5)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1% (▼3)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           45% (▲5)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            25% (▲7)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          19% (▼7)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            11% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      >99% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         99% (▲1)
 4       Nashville Predators (▲3)      45% (▲30)
 5       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       29% (▼4)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼1)             20% (▼8)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    7% (▼20)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           99% (▲4)
 2       New York Islanders            95% (▲4)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      90% (▲17)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼1)            83% (▼1)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers           21% (▼19)
 6       New York Rangers              10% (▼4)
 7       New Jersey Devils             2% (▼1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          >99% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            99% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                97% (▲10)
 4       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          36% (▲19)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          32% (▼28)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        30% (▼7)
 7       San Jose Sharks               6% (▲1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           98% (▲5)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            97% (▲14)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          94% (▲4)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            83% (▲7)
 5       Calgary Flames                20% (▼19)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             7% (▼11)
 7       Ottawa Senators               1% (▲1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           28% (▼20)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      17% (▲10)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          17% (▲2)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      15% (▲8)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       9% (▲2)
 6       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           4% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)         3% (▼3)
 7 (tie) New York Islanders            3%
 9       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      2% (▲1)
10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            1% (▼1)
10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           12% (▼2)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      12% (▲3)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       11% (▲2)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          8%
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               6%
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       6% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           5%
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 4% (▲1)
14       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       3%
15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1%
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           1%
15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2)             1%
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1%
15 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         1%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲10)     1% (▲1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1% (▼1)
15 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3)          1% (▼2)
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼6)       <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼6)    <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼6)        <1% (▼1)

The more things change, the more they stay the same.  We’ve just passed the halfway mark of the season, and there was lots of movement in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week, but the top 5 remain the same.  Tampa Bay remains at the top of the rankings, little changed from last week, but Buffalo has taken over the bottom spot, becoming the first team to drop below the 1400 rating mark.  In fact, in our simulations, the Sabres are the only team not to win the Stanley Cup once in 100,000 simulations!

Looking at the top 5, Tampa Bay had a busy week, playing 5 times!  They went 4-1-0, with one of their wins coming in a shootout against Dallas.  Despite the good week, they only gained 4 rating points, as the only top 10 team they played was Florida.  They remain the team with the best chance of making the playoffs (>99%), are the favourites to win the President’s Trophy (48% vs. second favourite Vegas at 15%), and the favourites to win the Stanley Cup.  But, at 14%, that’s definitely not a shoe-in; it’s less than the chances of rolling a die and getting a 6!

Colorado had a good week, moving up 17 rating points to 2nd in the rankings.  They had a perfect 3-0-0 record, with convincing wins over Anaheim (8-4) and Minnesota (5-1 and 6-0).  Although they are in 2nd place in the West Division, three points behind Vegas, we do think they are the stronger team right now.

Washington remained in the 3rd spot, picking up 7 rating points.  They went 3-1 this week, beating the Sabres, Islanders, and Rangers, but finishing the week with a loss to the Rangers.  They have moved into a tie with Colorado as 2nd-favourite team to win the Stanley Cup, at 9%.

Vegas stayed 4th in the rankings.  They gained 9 rating points, going 3-1, with two wins against San Jose and a split with Los Angeles.

The Islanders had the worst week of the top 5, going 1-2-0 and losing 10 rating points and dropped down from 2nd to 5th in the rankings.  They lost to Washington and Philadelphia, but then finished the week with a strong 6-1 win over the Flyers.

The biggest movers this week were Colorado and Nashville, both gaining 17 rating points.  Nashville had a tough schedule, but started the week beating top-ranked Tampa Bay, splitting a pair with 8th-ranked Florida, and finishing with a shootout win over 21st-ranked Dallas.

The biggest downward movers last week included Winnipeg (down 22 points), San Jose (down 17 points), and Buffalo (down 16 points).  Despite still having a chance at the playoffs, our simulations just can’t find any path for Buffalo to win the Stanley Cup.

One interesting game last week was on March 17th between the Flyers and Rangers.  Two days before, Philadelphia won 5-4 in overtime, but the Rangers came storming back to take the next game 9-0!  Those teams play twice next week, so we’ll see how those games turn out.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1588, ▲4)

Record: 23-6-2, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 48% (▲13)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▲1)

Last week: 4-1-0

• March 15: Lost 4-1 vs. Nashville Predators (24th, 1468)
• March 16: Won in SO 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (21st, 1486)
• March 18: Won 4-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1464)
• March 20: Won 4-1 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1464)
• March 21: Won 5-3 vs. Florida Panthers (8th, 1537)

Next week:

• March 23: @ Dallas Stars (21st, 1486)
• March 25: @ Dallas Stars (21st, 1486)
• March 27: @ Carolina Hurricanes (10th, 1533)

2. Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1565, ▲17)

Record: 19-8-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 16: Won 8-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (29th, 1412)
• March 18: Won 5-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1536)
• March 20: Won 6-0 vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1536)

Next week:

• March 22: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1490)
• March 23: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1490)
• March 25: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1558)
• March 27: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1558)

3. Washington Capitals (1563, ▲7)

Record: 20-7-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 15: Won 6-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (31st, 1399)
• March 16: Won 3-1 vs. New York Islanders (5th, 1553)
• March 19: Won 2-1 vs. New York Rangers (16th, 1504)
• March 20: Lost 3-1 vs. New York Rangers (16th, 1504)

Next week:

• March 25: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
• March 26: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
• March 28: vs. New York Rangers (16th, 1504)

4. Vegas Golden Knights (1558, ▲9)

Record: 21-7-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 15: Won 2-1 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 17: Won 5-4 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 19: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1494)
• March 21: Lost 3-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1494)

Next week:

• March 22: vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1512)
• March 25: @ Colorado Avalanche (2nd, 1565)
• March 27: @ Colorado Avalanche (2nd, 1565)

5. New York Islanders ▼3 (1553, ▼10)

Record: 20-8-4, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▼3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▼5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• March 16: Lost 3-1 @ Washington Capitals (3rd, 1563)
• March 18: Lost 4-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (13th, 1514)
• March 20: Won 6-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (13th, 1514)

Next week:

• March 22: @ Philadelphia Flyers (13th, 1514)
• March 23: @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1550)
• March 25: @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1550)
• March 27: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1519)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           1588 (▲4)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       1565 (▲17)
 3       Washington Capitals           1563 (▲7)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          1558 (▲9)
 5       New York Islanders (▼3)       1553 (▼10)
 6       Boston Bruins (▲1)            1550 (▲6)
 7       Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          1541 (▲13)
 8       Florida Panthers              1537 (▼6)
 9       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1536 (▼7)
10       Carolina Hurricanes (▼4)      1533 (▼14)
11       Toronto Maple Leafs           1523 (▼3)
12       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1519 (▼4)
13       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1514 (▼4)
14       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1512
15       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1507 (▲7)
16       New York Rangers (▲2)         1504 (▲12)
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼5)            1503 (▼22)
18       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1497 (▲2)
19       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1494 (▲8)
20       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1490
21       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1486 (▼1)
22       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1482 (▲4)
23       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1477 (▲2)
24       Nashville Predators (▲3)      1468 (▲17)
25       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1465 (▲9)
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▼4)       1464 (▼15)
27       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1451 (▼17)
28       Detroit Red Wings (▲3)        1419 (▲11)
29       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1412 (▼10)
30       Ottawa Senators               1410 (▲1)
31       Buffalo Sabres (▼2)           1399 (▼16)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           71% (▲19)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15% (▼13)
 3       Florida Panthers              14% (▼5)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals (▲1)      42% (▲12)
 2       New York Islanders (▼1)       28% (▼13)
 3       Boston Bruins                 19% (▲5)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           7% (▼4)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers           2% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 6 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          54% (▲6)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       30% (▲10)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           12% (▼13)
 4       St. Louis Blues               3% (▼1)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             1%
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           40% (▲2)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          26% (▲12)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            18% (▼19)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            14% (▲6)
 5       Calgary Flames                2% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           98% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         98%
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            33% (▼21)
 5       Dallas Stars                  28% (▼2)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         27% (▲13)
 7       Nashville Predators           15% (▲9)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals (▲1)      95% (▲4)
 2       New York Islanders (▼1)       91% (▼3)
 3       Boston Bruins                 84% (▲5)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           73% (▼5)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers           40% (▼4)
 6       New York Rangers              14% (▲2)
 7       New Jersey Devils             3% (▲1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          98% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       96% (▲8)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           87% (▼3)
 4       St. Louis Blues               60% (▲4)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             37% (▲7)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               17% (▼3)
 7       San Jose Sharks               5% (▼14)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           93% (▼2)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          90% (▲6)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            83% (▼11)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            76% (▲7)
 5       Calgary Flames                39% (▼7)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             18% (▲6)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           48% (▲13)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     15% (▲4)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      7% (▼10)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲5)       7% (▲5)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      7% (▲2)
 6       Florida Panthers (▼2)         6% (▼4)
 7       New York Islanders (▼2)       3% (▼5)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins                 2%
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           2% (▼1)
10       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       9% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      9% (▲2)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     8% (▲1)
 5       New York Islanders (▼3)       7% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              6%
 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼6)      5% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           5%
12 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      3%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          3%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            3% (▼2)
16       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      2%
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1%
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1%
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲7)    1% (▲1)
17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1%
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1%
17 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲7)        1% (▲1)
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            <1%
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           <1%
25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        <1%
25 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      <1%
25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        <1%
25 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1)          <1%
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼7)          <1% (▼1)

 

It was another interesting week in the NHL, although there haven’t been many changes to the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  Tampa Bay remains the top team, even though they are 2nd in the Central Division.  Carolina, 1st in that division, are 6th in our rankings.  Boston has dropped out of the top 5, moving down to 7th, while Washington has moved back in, showing up in the 3rd spot.

It looked to be an easy week for Tampa Bay, with two games against bottom-ranked Detroit and one against Nashville, but it didn’t go so well for them.  They did beat Nashville, but they lost once to Detroit and won the other game in overtime.  They saw their rating drop 9 points, but they are still the top-ranked team, the favourite to win their division (52% vs. Carolina’s 28%), the President’s Trophy (35% vs. Carolina’s 17%), and the most-likely team to make the playoffs (>99% chance!).

The Islanders moved into 2nd spot in our rankings, going 4-0-0 this week.  They beat New Jersey twice in regulation time and once in a shootout, and also beat Boston in a shootout.  Washington moved into 3rd, going 3-0-0, with two regulation wins over Philadelphia and an overtime win against New Jersey.  Vegas dropped down two spots to 4th, losing twice to Minnesota but beating St. Louis twice, once in overtime.  Rounding out the top 5 is Colorado, who beat Los Angeles twice but split a pair with Arizona, with their win coming in overtime.

The biggest mover this week was Minnesota, who gained 27 rating points and moved up 5 spots in our rankings to 8th with a perfect 4-0-0 record this week, with two wins against Vegas and two against Arizona.  On the downside, Toronto dropped 28 points, losing to 30th-ranked Ottawa and twice to Winnipeg, although they did manage an OT win in Winnipeg.  In fact, Toronto is no longer the top-rated Canadian team, with Edmonton moving into that spot after a 3-1-0 week, beating Ottawa 3 times but losing to Vancouver.  Winnipeg is close behind, just one rating point back of Toronto, after going 2-0-1 in their three games against the Leafs.  Toronto is still the favourite to win the Northern Division, just barely ahead of the Jets with a 38% chance vs. 37% chance for Winnipeg.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1584, ▼9)

Record: 19-5-2, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 35% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 9: Won in OT 4-3 @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1408)
• March 11: Lost 6-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1408)
• March 13: Won 6-3 vs. Nashville Predators (27th, 1451)

Next week:

• March 15: vs. Nashville Predators (27th, 1451)
• March 16: @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1487)
• March 18: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1479)
• March 20: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1479)
• March 21: vs. Florida Panthers (8th, 1543)

2. New York Islanders ▲1 (1563, ▲9)

Record: 19-6-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 94% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 9: Won in SO 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1544)
• March 11: Won 5-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
• March 13: Won 3-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
• March 14: Won in SO 3-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)

Next week:

• March 16: @ Washington Capitals (3rd, 1556)
• March 18: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)
• March 20: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)

3. Washington Capitals ▲4 (1556, ▲13)

Record: 17-6-4, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▲11)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 9: Won in OT 5-4 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
• March 11: Won 5-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)
• March 13: Won 5-4 @ Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)

Next week:

• March 15: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1415)
• March 16: vs. New York Islanders (2nd, 1563)
• March 19: vs. New York Rangers (18th, 1492)
• March 20: vs. New York Rangers (18th, 1492)

4. Vegas Golden Knights ▼2 (1549, ▼6)

Record: 18-6-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 8: Lost 2-0 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• March 10: Lost 4-3 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• March 12: Won in OT 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (15th, 1512)
• March 13: Won 5-1 @ St. Louis Blues (15th, 1512)

Next week:

• March 15: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1468)
• March 17: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1468)
• March 19: @ Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)
• March 21: @ Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)

5. Colorado Avalanche (1548)

Record: 16-8-2, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 8: Lost 3-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 10: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 12: Won 2-0 vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)
• March 14: Won 4-1 vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)

Next week:

• March 16: vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1422)
• March 18: vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• March 20: vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           1584 (▼9)
 2       New York Islanders (▲1)       1563 (▲9)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲4)      1556 (▲13)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     1549 (▼6)
 5       Colorado Avalanche            1548
 6       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1547 (▲8)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1544 (▼4)
 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1543 (▲14)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲5)           1543 (▲27)
10       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1528 (▲5)
11       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼8)      1526 (▼28)
12       Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1525 (▲19)
13       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1523 (▲19)
14       Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      1518 (▼19)
15       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          1512 (▼9)
16       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1500 (▼6)
17       Calgary Flames (▲6)           1495 (▲14)
18       New York Rangers (▼1)         1492 (▼1)
19       Arizona Coyotes               1490
20       Dallas Stars                  1487 (▼1)
21       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1486 (▼5)
22       Chicago Blackhawks            1479 (▼3)
23       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1478 (▼9)
24       Vancouver Canucks             1475
25       San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1468 (▲17)
26       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1456 (▼7)
27       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1451 (▼6)
28       Anaheim Ducks                 1422 (▼23)
29       Buffalo Sabres                1415 (▼10)
30       Ottawa Senators               1409 (▼4)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1408 (▲8)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           52% (▼15)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           28% (▲8)
 3       Florida Panthers              19% (▲7)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%

East Division

 1       New York Islanders            41% (▲10)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      30% (▲8)
 3       Boston Bruins (▼1)            14% (▼12)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      11% (▲4)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3% (▼10)
 6 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 6 (tie) New York Rangers              <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          48% (▼10)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           25% (▲15)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       20% (▲1)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          4% (▼6)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           38% (▼29)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 37% (▲22)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          14% (▲6)
 4       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       8% (▼2)
 5       Calgary Flames                3% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           >99% (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           99% (▲3)
 3       Florida Panthers              98% (▲7)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            54% (▼2)
 5       Dallas Stars                  30% (▲2)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         14% (▼5)
 7       Nashville Predators           6% (▼4)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             1% (▲1)

East Division

 1       New York Islanders            94% (▲8)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      91% (▲11)
 3       Boston Bruins (▼1)            79% (▼4)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      78% (▲21)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      44% (▼23)
 6       New York Rangers              12% (▼7)
 7       New Jersey Devils             2% (▼5)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          96%
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           90% (▲20)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       88% (▲5)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          56% (▼14)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             30% (▼10)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               20% (▼8)
 7       San Jose Sharks               19% (▲10)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 1% (▼3)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           95% (▼4)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 94% (▲7)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               84% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            69% (▼11)
 5       Calgary Flames                46% (▲11)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             12% (▼4)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼2)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           35% (▼6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      17% (▲7)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     11% (▼4)
 4       Florida Panthers (▲1)         10% (▲5)
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       8% (▲4)
 6       Washington Capitals (▲2)      5% (▲3)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           3% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            2% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            2%
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5)      2% (▼11)
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            2% (▲1)
12       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           13% (▼1)
 2       New York Islanders (▲2)       9% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      7% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     7% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       6%
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7)           6% (▲3)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼4)            5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7)      5% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            5% (▲2)
13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6)      2% (▼3)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1%
18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1%
18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             1%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1%
18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7)          1% (▲1)
24 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
24 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼7)    <1% (▼1)
24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
24 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%
24 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
24 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼7)        <1% (▼1)

 

Although we are not yet at the mid-point of the NHL schedule, some of the playoff teams are already being sorted out, according to our ratings.  There are still lots of changes in the ratings and rankings, but trends are starting to become evident.

Tampa Bay continues to be the top-ranked team, and we predict that they have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 41% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 14% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Although they went 3-0-1 this week, three of those games, including their shootout loss, were against the 22nd-ranked Blackhawks.  They have a pretty easy week coming up, too, with two games against the last-ranked Red Wings and one against the 26th-ranked Predators.

Vegas moved into the top 5, going 4-0-0 this week.  They are favourites to win their division, as we’re giving them a 58% chance of doing that.  The Islanders also went 4-0-0, and moved into the top 5 for the first time this year.  Toronto remains in the top 5, but dropped from 2nd in our rankings to 3rd.  They started the week strong with two convincing wins against the Oilers, but then lost twice in Vancouver.  Boston and Colorado round out the top 5, tied for 5th.  Boston went 1-1-1, and Colorado went 2-1-1.

As I said earlier, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus already.  In the Central Division, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Florida all have a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs.  The fourth playoff spot remains a toss-up, with Chicago at 56%, Dallas at 28%, and Columbus at 19% all having reasonable chances.  We give Detroit less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.

In the East Division, the Islanders (86%), Bruins (83%), and Capitals (80%) are favourites to make the playoffs.  The last playoff spot is close, with the Flyers (67%) and Penguins (57%) being the strongest contenders.  The Rangers can’t be counted out at 19%.

In the West Division, Vegas should make the playoffs — we’re giving them a 96% chance.  Colorado is also likely, at 83%.  Minnesota and St. Louis both have a 70% chance, followed by LA at 40% and Arizona at 28%.

In the North Division, Toronto should be a shoe-in at 99%.  Winnipeg (87%), Edmonton (83%), and Montreal (80%) are the next most likely teams, but being in the first half of the season, things can still change quite a bit.  Calgary still has a 35% chance, and even Vancouver has a shot at 16%, and with their two wins this week against Toronto, they show they could surprise.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1593, ▲11)

Record: 17-4-2, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 41% (▲13)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• March 2: Won 2-0 @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1488)
• March 4: Won in OT 3-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)
• March 5: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)
• March 7: Won 6-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)

Next week:

• March 9: @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1400)
• March 11: @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1400)
• March 13: vs. Nashville Predators (26th, 1457)

2. Vegas Golden Knights ▲4 (1555, ▲10)

Record: 16-4-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 1: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 3: Won 5-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 5: Won in OT 5-4 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 6: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)

Next week:

• March 8: @ Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 10: @ Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 12: @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1521)
• March 13: @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1521)

3 (tie). New York Islanders ▲5 (1554, ▲20)

Record: 15-6-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 86% (▲15)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 2: Won 2-1 @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
• March 4: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)
• March 6: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)
• March 7: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)

Next week:

• March 9: vs. Boston Bruins (5th, 1548)
• March 11: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
• March 13: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
• March 14: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)

3 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1554, ▼2)

Record: 18-6-2, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 1: Won 3-0 @ Edmonton Oilers (11th, 1523)
• March 3: Won 6-1 @ Edmonton Oilers (11th, 1523)
• March 4: Lost 3-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (24th, 1475)
• March 6: Lost 4-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (24th, 1475)

Next week:

• March 9: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
• March 11: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
• March 13: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
• March 14: @ Ottawa Senators (30th, 1413)

5 (tie). Boston Bruins (1548, ▼5)

Record: 13-6-3, 3rd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 83% (▼4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-1

• March 3: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1543)
• March 5: Won 5-1 vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1543)
• March 7: Lost 1-0 vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)

Next week:

• March 9: @ New York Islanders (3rd, 1554)
• March 11: vs. New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
• March 13: vs. New York Rangers (17th, 1493)

5 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▼3 (1548, ▼8)

Record: 13-7-2, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 83% (▼3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 1: Lost 6-2 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 3: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 5: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1445)
• March 6: Lost in OT 5-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1445)

Next week:

• March 8: vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 10: vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 12: vs. Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1491)
• March 14: vs. Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1491)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           1593 (▲11)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     1555 (▲10)
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲5)       1554 (▲20)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1554 (▼2)
 5 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1548 (▼5)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼3)       1548 (▼8)
 7       Washington Capitals           1543 (▲4)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)      1539 (▲19)
 9       Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      1537 (▼18)
10       Florida Panthers              1529 (▲6)
11       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1523 (▼9)
12       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1521 (▲14)
13       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1516 (▼4)
14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       1506 (▲11)
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1506 (▼10)
16       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1504 (▲16)
17       New York Rangers (▲6)         1493 (▲15)
18       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1491 (▼9)
19       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1490 (▲9)
20       Dallas Stars (▼4)             1488 (▼9)
21       Columbus Blue Jackets         1487 (▲6)
22       Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1482 (▼4)
23       Calgary Flames (▼5)           1481 (▼11)
24       Vancouver Canucks (▲3)        1475 (▲22)
25       New Jersey Devils             1463 (▼12)
26       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1457 (▼20)
27       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1451 (▼3)
28       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1445 (▼8)
29       Buffalo Sabres                1425 (▼19)
30       Ottawa Senators               1413
31       Detroit Red Wings             1400 (▼9)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           67% (▲6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      20% (▲6)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         12% (▼6)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            1% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       New York Islanders (▲3)       31% (▲18)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            26% (▼6)
 3       Washington Capitals           22% (▲3)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      13% (▼17)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           7% (▲3)
 6       New York Rangers              1%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          58% (▲20)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            19% (▼10)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                10% (▼10)
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          10% (▲4)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             2% (▼3)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               1%
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           67% (▲5)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 15% (▼3)
 3       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       10% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼5)
 5       Calgary Flames                1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           99% (▲2)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      96% (▲13)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         91% (▲5)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            56% (▲1)
 5       Dallas Stars                  28% (▼11)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    19% (▲3)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      10% (▼13)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       New York Islanders (▲3)       86% (▲15)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            83% (▼4)
 3       Washington Capitals           80% (▲3)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      67% (▼18)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           57% (▲14)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         19% (▲5)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        7% (▼12)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                1% (▼4)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          96% (▲8)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            83% (▼3)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                70% (▼7)
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          70% (▲19)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             40% (▼10)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               28% (▲4)
 7       San Jose Sharks               9% (▼6)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 4% (▼4)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           99% (▲1)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 87%
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          83% (▼4)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            80% (▲13)
 5       Calgary Flames                35% (▼15)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             16% (▲9)
 7       Ottawa Senators               2% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           41% (▲13)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     15% (▲7)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      13% (▼8)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      10% (▲6)
 5       Florida Panthers (▲1)         5%
 6       New York Islanders (▲6)       4% (▲2)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼3)            3% (▼4)
 8 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       2% (▼3)
 8 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      2% (▼1)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1% (▼2)
10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲4)       1%
10 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6)      1% (▼6)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          1% (▲1)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     8% (▲1)
 4       New York Islanders (▲6)       7% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲5)      6% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      6% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         5%
 9 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6)      5% (▼2)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼4)          4% (▼1)
11 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          4% (▲1)
13 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            3% (▼1)
16       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      2% (▲1)
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          1%
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3)    1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼2)        1% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲9)        1% (▲1)
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
25 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼5)      <1% (▼1)
25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼5)        <1% (▼1)
25 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%

 

After a bad week last week, Tampa Bay turned things around and moved back to the top of our ratings.  After going 0-2-0 and dropping down to fourth in the rankings last week, they won all 4 of their games this week and jumped 25 rating points.  Meanwhile, Boston, last week’s number one, went 1-2-0 and dropped down to fifth in the rankings, although they are just 3 rating points out of 2nd.  Colorado and Toronto both remained tied for second in the rankings, both having middling weeks.  Colorado went 2-2-0, and Toronto were 2-1-0, with one of their wins being in overtime.  Philadelphia had a good week, moving back into the top 5 with a 3-0-0 record, although their wins came against the Rangers (ranked 23rd) and two against the Sabres (29th).

Tampa Bay are the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, grabbing the prize in 12% of our simulations.  Toronto, last week’s favourite, have now dropped to 2nd favourite, winning in 9% of the simulations.  Toronto is the most likely to make the playoffs (98%), with Tampa Bay close behind at 97%.  Currently, they are the only two teams to have a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs, but I’m sure that will change as the season moves along.

Big movers in the ratings this week include Tampa Bay (+25 points), Minnesota (+22), and Washington (+20).  Minnesota went 4-0-0, with one of their wins in OT.  The big win for them was a 6-2 road victory over 2nd ranked Colorado.  They saw their chances of making the playoffs take a big jump, up to 77% (last week it was 51%).  Washington went 3-0-1, but their games were against 19th-ranked Pittsburgh and 25th ranked New Jersey.  They’ll have a big test this week, facing the Bruins twice and the Flyers once.

On the downside, Columbus and New Jersey both dropped 24 points, and Carolina lost 19 points.  Columbus went 0-3-1, and saw their playoff chances drop from 40% to 16%.  New Jersey went 1-3-0, with their only win coming in overtime against 29th ranked Buffalo, although two of their losses were to 7th ranked Washington.  Carolina, ranked number 5 last week, went 1-3-0, although their three losses were to top-ranked Tampa Bay.  Our simulations show that they have a 4% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, down from 13% last week!

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲3 (1582, ▲25)

Record: 14-4-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 97% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 28% (▲17)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲4)

Last week: 4-0-0

• February 22: Won 4-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
• February 24: Won 3-0 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
• February 25: Won 3-1 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
• February 27: Won 5-0 vs. Dallas Stars (16th, 1497)

Next week:

• March 2: @ Dallas Stars (16th, 1497)
• March 4: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)
• March 5: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)
• March 7: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)

2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche (1556, ▼4)

Record: 11-6-1, 4th in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 86% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 2-2-0

• February 22: Lost 3-0 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1545)
• February 24: Lost 6-2 vs. Minnesota Wild (11th, 1520)
• February 26: Won 3-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (21th, 1481)
• February 27: Won 6-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (21th, 1481)

Next week:

• March 1: @ San Jose Sharks (26th, 1454)
• March 3: @ San Jose Sharks (26th, 1454)
• March 5: vs. Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1453)
• March 6: vs. Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1453)

2 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs (1556, ▼4)

Record: 16-4-2, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 22: Lost 3-0 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
• February 24: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
• February 27: Won 4-0 @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)

Next week:

• March 1: @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)
• March 3: @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)
• March 4: @ Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1453)
• March 6: @ Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1453)

4. Philadelphia Flyers ▲2 (1555, ▲18)

Record: 11-4-3, 4th in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 85% (▲14)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 24: Won 4-3 vs. New York Rangers (23th, 1478)
• February 27: Won 3-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1444)
• February 28: Won 3-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1444)

Next week:

• March 2: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
• March 4: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
• March 6: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
• March 7: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)

5. Boston Bruins ▼4 (1553, ▼8)

Record: 12-5-2, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▼4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▼7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• February 25: Lost 7-2 @ New York Islanders (8th, 1534)
• February 26: Lost 6-2 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1478)
• February 28: Won 4-1 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1478)

Next week:

• March 3: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)
• March 5: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)
• March 7: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1475)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      1582 (▲25)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            1556 (▼4)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           1556 (▼4)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1555 (▲18)
 5       Boston Bruins (▼4)            1553 (▼8)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights          1545 (▲8)
 7       Washington Capitals (▲3)      1539 (▲20)
 8       New York Islanders (▲3)       1534 (▲17)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1532 (▲6)
10       Florida Panthers (▼1)         1523 (▲2)
11 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼6)      1520 (▼19)
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7)           1520 (▲22)
13       Winnipeg Jets                 1516 (▲5)
14       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          1507 (▼10)
15       Los Angeles Kings (▲6)        1500 (▲13)
16       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1497 (▼8)
17       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1495 (▼6)
18       Calgary Flames (▲5)           1492 (▲11)
19       Pittsburgh Penguins           1488 (▼9)
20       Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1486 (▲5)
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1481 (▼10)
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼7)    1481 (▼24)
23       New York Rangers (▼1)         1478 (▼5)
24       Nashville Predators (▲3)      1477 (▲13)
25       New Jersey Devils (▼8)        1475 (▼24)
26       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1454 (▼15)
27 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1453 (▼3)
27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1453 (▼14)
29       Buffalo Sabres                1444 (▼8)
30       Ottawa Senators               1413 (▲2)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1409 (▲6)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      61% (▲30)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         18% (▼3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼2)      14% (▼21)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       4% (▲1)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             2% (▼4)
 6       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    <1% (▼3)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 32% (▼18)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           30% (▲13)
 3       Washington Capitals           19% (▲9)
 4       New York Islanders            13% (▲5)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▼2)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1% (▼4)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     38% (▲9)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       29% (▼10)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           20% (▲12)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          6% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             5% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1% (▼2)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1% (▼2)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           62% (▼1)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 18% (▲5)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               13% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            5% (▼4)
 5       Calgary Flames                2%
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      97% (▲10)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         86% (▲7)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼2)      83% (▼6)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       55% (▲14)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             39% (▼10)
 6       Nashville Predators (▲1)      23% (▲10)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    16% (▼24)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 87% (▼4)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           85% (▲14)
 3       Washington Capitals           77% (▲18)
 4       New York Islanders            71% (▲16)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           43% (▼5)
 6       New Jersey Devils             19% (▼23)
 7       New York Rangers              14% (▼8)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                5% (▼7)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     88% (▲7)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       86% (▼1)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           77% (▲26)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          51% (▼14)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             50% (▲10)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               24% (▼10)
 7       San Jose Sharks               15% (▼14)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 8% (▼4)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           98%
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               87% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            87% (▲6)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            67% (▼8)
 5       Calgary Flames                50% (▲8)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             7% (▼11)
 7       Ottawa Senators               3%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      28% (▲17)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      21% (▼2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     8% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            7% (▼7)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      7% (▲4)
 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       5% (▼4)
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              5% (▼2)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▼5)      4% (▼9)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           3% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      3% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          2%
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2% (▲1)
14       Montreal Canadiens (▼5)       1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      12% (▲4)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      9% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            7% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       7% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      7% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     7% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               5%
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼5)      4% (▼2)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6)           4% (▲2)
10 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       4% (▲1)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            4%
14       St. Louis Blues (▼5)          3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲7)           2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲7)       2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        2%
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       2% (▼1)
20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1% (▼1)
20 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         1%
20 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1%
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼4)        1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4)      1% (▼1)
26 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
26 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
26 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
26 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
26 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼4)          <1% (▼1)
26 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        <1% (▼1)

 

It was a week of surprises!  Boston moved back to the top of the rankings, but Tampa Bay dropped sharply this week, moving down 3 spots to 4th, and losing 14 rating points.  They are also no longer favoured to win their division, with Carolina, who moved into 5th place overall in the rankings, who win the Central Division in 35% of our simulations, compared to 31% for Tampa Bay.  Toronto is now favoured to win the Stanley Cup, with a 10% probability of that happening!  They are also now expected to win the President’s Trophy, which they do in 23% of our simulations.

The top 3 movers this week were Carolina, San Jose, and Los Angeles.  Carolina went 3-0-1, including a win over Tampa Bay, and moved up 19 rating points and 3 positions in our rankings.  They have three games scheduled against the Lightning this week, so we’ll see if they can keep things up.  San Jose went 2-0-1, beating Anaheim and St. Louis, and losing to the Blues in OT, also moving them up 19 rating points.  With that performance, their chances of making the playoffs jumped from 17% to 29%, still a longshot, but a little more likely now.  Los Angeles went 3-0-0, beating Arizona twice and Minnesota once.  That moved them up 17 rating points, and increased their chances of making the playoffs from 22% to 40%.

On the down side, Calgary and Anaheim both dropped 23 points, and St. Louis dropped 20.  The Flames went 1-3-0, with their only win coming in overtime against Vancouver.  Next week, they have two games with the Leafs, so that will be difficult.  Their chances of making the playoffs dropped from 64% to 42%.  The Ducks went 0-3-0, losing to San Jose once and Minnesota twice.  Their chances of making the playoffs dropped from 32% down to 12%.  St. Louis went 1-2-0, with their only win coming against San Jose in overtime.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins ▲1 (1561, ▼4)

Record: 11-3-2, 1st in East Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 1-1-0

• February 18: Lost 3-2 vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1499)
• February 21: Won 7-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (6th, 1537)

Next week:

• February 25: @ New York Islanders (11th, 1517)
• February 26: @ New York Rangers (22th, 1483)
• February 28: @ New York Rangers (22th, 1483)

2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1560, ▲15)

Record: 9-4-1, 3rd in West Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 16: Won 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)
• February 20: Won 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)

Next week:

• February 22: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)
• February 24: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1498)
• February 26: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1491)
• February 27: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1491)

2 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲2 (1560, ▲12)

Record: 14-3-2, 1st in North Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 23% (▲10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• February 15: Lost in OT 6-5 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
• February 17: Won 2-1 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
• February 18: Won 7-3 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
• February 20: Won 5-3 @ Montreal Canadiens (16th, 1501)

Next week:

• February 22: vs. Calgary Flames (23th, 1481)
• February 24: vs. Calgary Flames (23th, 1481)
• February 27: @ Edmonton Oilers (8th, 1526)

4. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼3 (1557, ▼17)

Record: 10-4-1, 4th in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▼7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼12)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-0

• February 15: Lost 6-4 vs. Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)
• February 18: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)
• February 20: Lost 4-0 @ Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 20: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)

Next week:

• February 22: @ Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 24: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 25: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 27: vs. Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)

5. Carolina Hurricanes ▲3 (1539, ▲19)

Record: 12-3-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 89% (▲12)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• February 15: Won 7-3 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (14th, 1505)
• February 17: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)
• February 19: Won 5-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (23th, 1481)
• February 20: Won 4-0 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 20: Postponed vs. Chicago Blackhawks (23th, 1481)

Next week:

• February 22: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 24: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 25: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 27: @ Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)         1561 (▼4)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)    1560 (▲15)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)   1560 (▲12)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)   1557 (▼17)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)   1539 (▲19)
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)   1537 (▼8)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)  1537 (▼15)
 8       Edmonton Oilers (▲3)       1526 (▲12)
 9       Florida Panthers (▲2)      1521 (▲7)
10        Washington Capitals (▲3)  1519 (▲10)
11 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)    1517 (▼1)
11 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4)       1517 (▼20)
13        Winnipeg Jets (▲4)        1511 (▲10)
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 1505 (▼11)
14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)          1505
16       Montreal Canadiens (▼3)    1501 (▼8)
17       New Jersey Devils (▲1)     1499 (▲2)
18        Minnesota Wild (▲3)       1498 (▲9)
19        Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)  1497 (▲7)
20        Arizona Coyotes (▼1)      1491 (▼2)
21        Los Angeles Kings (▲4)    1487 (▲17)
22        New York Rangers (▲1)     1483 (▲3)
23 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼7)        1481 (▼23)
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)    1481
25        San Jose Sharks (▲4)      1469 (▲19)
26        Vancouver Canucks         1467 (▲1)
27        Nashville Predators (▲1)  1464 (▲4)
28        Anaheim Ducks (▼4)        1456 (▼23)
29        Buffalo Sabres (▼2)       1452 (▼9)
30        Ottawa Senators           1411 (▼4)
31        Detroit Red Wings         1403 (▼2)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)   35% (▲16)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)   31% (▼21)
 3       Florida Panthers           21% (▲7)
 4       Dallas Stars               6%
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)    3%
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets      3% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings          <1%
 7 (tie) Nashville Predators        <1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins              50% (▲1)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers        17% (▼5)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)   10% (▲4)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)    8% (▼1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)   6% (▲1)
 6       New Jersey Devils (▼2)     5% (▼1)
 7       New York Rangers (▲1)      2% (▲1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)        1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)    39% (▲18)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)  29% (▼15)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)       13% (▼8)
 4       Minnesota Wild             8% (▲3)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)     4% (▲3)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)       3%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)       3% (▲2)
 8       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)         1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs        63% (▲12)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)         13% (▲2)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)       12% (▲2)
 4       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)    9% (▼9)
 5       Calgary Flames                2% (▼7)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)       <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks          <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)   89% (▲12)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)   87% (▼7)
 3       Florida Panthers           79% (▲9)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)          49%
 5       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)    41% (▲2)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) 40% (▼14)
 7       Nashville Predators        13% (▼1)
 8       Detroit Red Wings          1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins              91% (▼1)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers        71% (▼8)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)   59% (▲11)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)    55% (▼1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)   48% (▲6)
 6       New Jersey Devils (▼1)     42% (▼1)
 7       New York Rangers (▲1)      22% (▲3)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)        12% (▼9)

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)    87% (▲10)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)  81% (▼9)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)       65% (▼14)
 4       Minnesota Wild             51% (▲9)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)     40% (▲18)
 6       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)       34% (▼6)
 7       San Jose Sharks (▲1)       29% (▲12)
 8       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)         12% (▼20)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs        98% (▲3)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)       83% (▲13)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)         81% (▲14)
 4       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)    75% (▼5)
 5       Calgary Flames             42% (▼22)
 6       Vancouver Canucks          18% (▼3)
 7       Ottawa Senators            3%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)   23% (▲10)
 2       Boston Bruins              14% (▼2)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)   13% (▲7)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)   11% (▼12)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)    9% (▲5)
 6       Florida Panthers (▲1)      7% (▲3)
 7       Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)  5% (▼7)
 8       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)   3% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)       2% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)    2% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)         2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)          1%
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)        1%
12 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)    1%
12 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)     1%
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)   1%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5)       1% (▼3)
12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)   1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)   10% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins              9%
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)    9% (▲3)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)   8% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)   6% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)  6% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)       5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)   5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)      4%
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4)       4% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)   4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)         4% (▲1)
13 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)          3%
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼5)    3% (▼1)
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)    3%
16 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)       2%
16 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 2% (▼1)
16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲6)     2% (▲1)
16 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)        2%
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)     2%
16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)   2%
22 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼10)       1% (▼2)
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks         1%
22 (tie) New York Rangers           1%
22 (tie) Nashville Predators        1%
22 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7)       1% (▲1)
22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks          1%
28 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼6)         <1% (▼1)
28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼6)        <1% (▼1)
28 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)     <1%
28 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)       <1%

Once again this week, Tampa Bay and Boston remain the top two teams in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, although they’ve flipped places again this week, with Tampa Bay now on top. Tampa Bay went 3-1-0, and Boston went 2-1-0, although one of Boston’s wins was in overtime against the 23rd ranked Rangers.

Vegas went 3-1-0 to move back into the top 5, at number 3. Toronto remained the 4th ranked team, going 2-1-0, but with three games against 30th ranked Ottawa next week, I expect to see their rating move up a bit. Rounding out the top 5, tied in 5th, are Colorado, who lost their only game last week (two games were postponed), and Philadelphia, who had all four of their games postponed.

Big movers last week include Edmonton (3-0-0), who gained 22 rating points and moved up 9 spots to 11th, the Islanders (2-0-1), who gained 15 rating points and moved up 5 spots to 9th, and Columbus (2-0-1), who also gained 15 rating points and moved up 5 spots to 10th.

On the downside, Nashville had the worst week, going 1-3-0 with their only win coming against the worst-ranked Detroit, but they did play top-ranked Tampa Bay twice, so maybe their week wasn’t as bad as it looked. Other big droppers were the Rangers (0-2-1, with one game postponed), who lost 14 rating points and dropped 4 spots to 23rd, and San Jose (1-2-0), who lost 13 rating points and dropped 1 spot to 29th.

Finally, we’re giving Tampa Bay the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup, where our simulations show them having an 11% chance of winning it all, closely followed by Boston at 9%. Perhaps most surprisingly, Toronto, who haven’t won a cup since 1967, have an 8% chance, tied with Vegas.

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1574, ▲11)

Record: 10-2-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 94% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 23% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)

Last week: 3-1-0

• February 8: Won 4-1 @ Nashville Predators (28th, 1460)
• February 9: Won 6-1 @ Nashville Predators (28th, 1460)
• February 11: Lost 5-2 @ Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)
• February 13: Won 6-1 @ Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)
• February 18: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1505)
• February 20: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1505)

2. Boston Bruins ▼1 (1565, ▼2)

Record: 10-2-2, 1st in East Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 92% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 10: Won in OT 3-2 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
• February 12: Won 1-0 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
• February 13: Lost 4-2 @ New York Islanders (9th, 1518)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 18: vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 21: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (5th, 1545)

3. Vegas Golden Knights ▲3 (1552, ▲9)

Record: 10-2-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• February 9: Won 5-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (24th, 1479)
• February 11: Lost 1-0 vs. Anaheim Ducks (24th, 1479)
• February 13: Won 3-1 @ San Jose Sharks (29th, 1450)
• February 14: Won 1-0 vs. Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)

Next week:

• February 16: vs. Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)
• February 20: @ Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)

4. Toronto Maple Leafs (1548, ▲3)

Record: 11-3-1, 1st in North Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 8: Won 3-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1466)
• February 10: Won 4-2 @ Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)
• February 13: Lost 2-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
• February 17: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
• February 18: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
• February 20: @ Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)

5 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▼2 (1545, ▼7)

Record: 7-4-1, 3rd in West Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 77% (▼5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 0-1-0

• February 9: Postponed vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1493)
• February 11: Postponed vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1493)
• February 14: Lost 1-0 @ Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)

Next week:

• February 16: @ Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)
• February 20: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)

5 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers ▼1 (1545)

Record: 8-3-2, 2nd in East Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 79%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 0-0-0

• February 9: Postponed @ Washington Capitals (13th, 1509)
• February 11: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 13: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 14: Postponed @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)

Next week:

• February 18: vs. New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
• February 21: @ Boston Bruins (2nd, 1565)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1574 (▲11)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1565 (▼2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     1552 (▲9)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs           1548 (▲3)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       1545 (▼7)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1545
 7       St. Louis Blues               1537 (▲7)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes           1520 (▲2)
 9       New York Islanders (▲5)       1518 (▲15)
10       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5)    1516 (▲15)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲9)          1514 (▲22)
11 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1514 (▲6)
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       1509 (▼6)
13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4)      1509 (▼7)
15       Dallas Stars (▼5)             1505 (▼10)
16       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1504 (▲7)
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼5)            1501 (▼12)
18       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1497
19       Arizona Coyotes (▼3)          1493 (▼7)
20       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1490 (▲8)
21       Minnesota Wild                1489
22       Chicago Blackhawks            1481 (▼7)
23       New York Rangers (▼4)         1480 (▼14)
24       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1479 (▲5)
25       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1470 (▲6)
26       Vancouver Canucks             1466 (▼4)
27       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1461
28       Nashville Predators (▼4)      1460 (▼17)
29       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1450 (▼13)
30       Ottawa Senators               1415 (▼8)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1405

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           52% (▲9)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           19%
 3       Florida Panthers              14% (▼1)
 4       Dallas Stars                  6% (▼7)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         5% (▲1)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       3% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
 7 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1% (▼2)

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 49% (▲1)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           22%
 3       New York Islanders (▲2)       9% (▲4)
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils             6%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      6% (▼4)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      5% (▲2)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           2%
 8       New York Rangers (▼2)         1% (▼3)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          44% (▲8)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            21% (▼8)
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          21% (▲4)
 4       Minnesota Wild                5% (▼1)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          3% (▼3)
 6       Anaheim Ducks                 2% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           51% (▲6)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            18% (▼7)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 11% (▼7)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          10% (▲6)
 5       Calgary Flames (▼1)           9% (▲2)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             1%
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           94% (▲6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           77% (▲5)
 3       Florida Panthers              70% (▲5)
 4       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    54% (▲15)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             49% (▼13)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       39%
 7       Nashville Predators           14% (▼15)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             2% (▼2)

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 92% (▲2)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           79%
 3       New York Islanders (▲1)       56% (▲13)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      48% (▼9)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        43%
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      42% (▲10)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           21% (▼1)
 8       New York Rangers (▼2)         19% (▼15)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          90% (▲6)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          79% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       77% (▼5)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           42% (▼1)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          40% (▼5)
 6       Anaheim Ducks                 32% (▲2)
 7       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        22% (▲3)
 8       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          17% (▼10)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           95% (▲2)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            80% (▼5)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          70% (▲21)
 4       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            67% (▼11)
 5       Calgary Flames (▼1)           64% (▲5)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             21% (▼8)
 7       Ottawa Senators               3% (▼4)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           23% (▲7)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            16%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           13%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12% (▲2)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      6%
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           5% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       4% (▼3)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         4%
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          4% (▲1)
10       Montreal Canadiens (▼4)       3% (▼3)
11 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3)           1%
11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲9)    1% (▲1)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             1% (▼2)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲9)          1% (▲1)
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1%
11 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       1%
11 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1%
11 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲9)      1% (▲1)
11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      1% (▼1)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           11% (▲2)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            9%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          8% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      6%
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          6% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           4%
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲6)          4% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            4%
12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4)             3% (▼1)
12 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Washington Capitals           3%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            3% (▼1)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          2%
18 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼4)           2%
18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼4)        2%
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5)      2% (▲1)
22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1%
22 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼8)       1% (▼1)
22 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1%
22 (tie) New York Rangers (▼8)         1% (▼1)
22 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1%
22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1%
29 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
29 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
29 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼6)          <1% (▼1)

 

This week’s McDonald NHL Power Ratings are out a little later than usual, but here they are!

Boston had a strong week (3-0-0 against the Capitals and Flyers) to move into first in the rankings.  Tampa Bay also went 3-0-0, but because they played against weaker teams, their rating didn’t increase as much as Boston’s, so they’ve dropped into 2nd place.  The Leafs cracked the top 5 for the first time this year, possibly for the first time since I’ve done the ratings.  Other big movers included Winnipeg (12th, 2-0-1, up 12 points), Arizona (16th, 2-1-0, up 14 points), and the Rangers (19th, 2-0-0, up 15 points).

Boston and Tampa Bay are still the favourites to win the Stanley Cup.  We give both teams a 9% chance of winning.  Ottawa and Detroit are the longshots, at only a 7% and 4% chance of even making the playoffs.

On the downside, big droppers were Washington (9th, 0-3-0, down 24 points), Vancouver (26th, 0-4-0, down 23 points), and Los Angeles (27th, 0-3-0, down 19 points).

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1567, ▲17)

Record: 8-1-2, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲13)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 1: Won 5-3 @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
• February 3: Won in OT 4-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1545)
• February 5: Won 2-1 @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1545)

Next week:

• February 10: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
• February 12: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
• February 13: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1503)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1563, ▲13)

Record: 7-1-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 1: Won 5-2 vs. Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 3: Won 5-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1405)
• February 5: Won 3-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1405)

Next week:

• February 8: @ Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 9: @ Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 11: @ Florida Panthers (13th, 1508)
• February 13: @ Florida Panthers (13th, 1508)

3. Colorado Avalanche (1552, ▲6)

Record: 7-3-1, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 82% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-0-0

• February 2: Won 2-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (21th, 1489)
• February 4: Postponed vs. Minnesota Wild (21th, 1489)
• February 6: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (7th, 1530)
• February 7: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (7th, 1530)

Next week:

• February 9: vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1500)
• February 11: vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1500)
• February 14: @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1543)

4 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers ▼1 (1545, ▼1)

Record: 8-3-2, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-1-1

• February 3: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1567)
• February 5: Lost 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1567)
• February 7: Won 7-4 @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)

Next week:

• February 9: @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
• February 11: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1497)
• February 13: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1497)
• February 14: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)

4 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲3 (1545, ▲11)

Record: 9-2-1, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 93% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 4: Won 7-3 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
• February 6: Won 5-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)

Next week:

• February 8: vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
• February 10: @ Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1515)
• February 13: vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1515)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1567 (▲17)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1563 (▲13)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            1552 (▲6)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1545 (▼1)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1545 (▲11)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1543 (▲10)
 7       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1530 (▼14)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1518 (▲1)
 9       Washington Capitals (▼3)      1516 (▼24)
10 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1515
10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       1515 (▲9)
12       Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            1513 (▲12)
13       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1508 (▼6)
14       New York Islanders (▲2)       1503 (▲6)
15       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3)    1501 (▼9)
16       Arizona Coyotes (▲7)          1500 (▲14)
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3)           1497 (▼5)
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1497
19       New York Rangers (▲6)         1494 (▲15)
20       Edmonton Oilers               1492 (▼2)
21       Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1489 (▼6)
22       Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1488 (▲9)
23       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼5)      1482 (▼13)
24       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1477 (▼10)
25       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1474 (▲7)
26       Vancouver Canucks (▼5)        1470 (▼23)
27       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1464 (▼19)
28       San Jose Sharks               1463 (▲2)
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1461
30       Ottawa Senators               1423 (▼2)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1405 (▲3)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           43% (▲14)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19%
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         15% (▼6)
 4       Dallas Stars                  13% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       4% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         4% (▼4)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      2% (▼3)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)            48% (▲22)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           22% (▼4)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼2)      10% (▼17)
 4       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        6%
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       5% (▲1)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         4% (▲2)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      3% (▼4)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           2%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     36% (▲10)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       29% (▲4)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          17% (▼11)
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          6% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild                6% (▼2)
 6       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            3% (▲1)
 7       San Jose Sharks               2%
 8       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1% (▼4)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           45% (▲9)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            25% (▲2)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 18% (▲4)
 4       Calgary Flames                7% (▼4)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          4% (▼2)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1% (▼8)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           88% (▲10)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      72% (▲3)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         65% (▼5)
 4       Dallas Stars                  62% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       39% (▲10)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         39% (▼11)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      29% (▼8)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             4%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins (▲2)            90% (▲13)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      79%
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      57% (▼21)
 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       43% (▲8)
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        43% (▲2)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         34% (▲12)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      32% (▼13)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           22%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     84% (▲9)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            82% (▲5)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          70% (▼9)
 4       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          45% (▲11)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           43% (▼7)
 6       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            30% (▲7)
 7       San Jose Sharks               27% (▲4)
 8       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        19% (▼19)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           93% (▲7)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            85% (▲8)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 78% (▲13)
 4       Calgary Flames                59%
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          49% (▲1)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        29% (▼26)
 7       Ottawa Senators               7% (▼2)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            16% (▲8)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           16% (▲6)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      13% (▲4)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     10% (▲3)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)      6%
 6 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲5)       6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6% (▼2)
 9       Florida Panthers (▼2)         4% (▼3)
10 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             3% (▼2)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6)          3% (▼5)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            3% (▲1)
13       Washington Capitals (▼11)     2% (▼7)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲10)         1% (▲1)
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲10)      1% (▲1)
14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1%
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 9% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           9% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       7%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5)     7% (▲2)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6%
 7       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      4%
 8 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             4%
 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       4%
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         3% (▼1)
12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼8)      3% (▼3)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          2%
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲11)      2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          2%
14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           2%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       2%
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▲11)        2% (▲1)
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        2%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼6)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼6)      1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1% (▼1)
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼10)       1% (▼2)
30 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
30 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%