We’re almost halfway through the NHL season, and there’s one team that’s standing out from the rest.  Boston is having an amazing season, currently sitting with a record of 32 wins, 4 regular season losses, and 4 overtime losses.  They continue to sit at the top of our rankings, but there has been a bit of change in our top 5.

Boston continued their great run, going 4-0-0 this week, with regulation wins over 7th-ranked Pittsburgh, 12th-ranked Los Angeles, 28th-ranked San Jose, and 31st-ranked Anaheim.  Their performance garnered them 19 more rating points, putting them at 1632 for the year.  They currently sit in first place in the Atlantic Division, as well as the NHL, and we’ve calculated that they’ve got a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 82% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 19% chance of winning the Stanley Cup!  They only have two games next week, both at home, one of which is against Toronto.

Toronto is ranked 2nd this week, up one swap from last week.  They went 2-1-1 this week, beating 24th-ranked Detroit and 26th-ranked Philadelphia, losing in overtime to 18th-ranked St. Louis, and losing in regulation to 14th-ranked Seattle.  With their middling performance, they lost 3 rating points, but due to Carolina’s poor week, they still moved up into 2nd place in our rankings.  Their big game this week will be on the 14th against Boston.

Carolina had a disastrous week, losing all three of their games.  They lost in regulation to the 5th-ranked New York Rangers and 19th-ranked Nashville, and lost in a shootout to 30th-ranked Columbus.  The boys in the back room have dropped their rating by 21 rating points, but that’s still good enough for 3rd in our rankings, down one spot from last week.

Dallas is fourth in our rankings, the same as last week.  They went 1-2-0 this week, beating 20th-ranked Florida but losing to 12th-ranked Los Angeles and 31st-ranked Anaheim.  That resulted in a 12 point rating drop, but they stay the same spot in the rankings.

Rounding out the top 5 is a newcomer, with the New York Rangers entering at number 5, 3 spots up from last week.  They had a fairly decent week, beating 3rd-ranked Carolina and 29th-ranked Montreal, but losing in overtime to 17th-ranked New Jersey.  Despite being in our top 5, we’re only giving them a 78% chance of even making the playoffs, as they currently sit in 4th place in the Metropolitan Division.

Seattle and Nashville were the top two movers this week.  Seattle won all three of their games, all in regulation time, and all on the road.  They beat 12th-ranked Edmonton, 2nd-ranked Toronto, and 23rd-ranked Ottawa to gain 27 ranking points and moving from 21st in our rankings all the way up to 14th!  Nashville also had a perfect week with 3 wins, beating 29th-ranked Montreal at home, and 3rd-ranked Carolina and 6th-ranked Washington on the road.  As a result, they picked up 25 rating points, and moved from 23rd to 19th in our rankings.

The biggest downward mover this week was Arizona, who lost all 4 of their games this week in regulation time, resulting in us dropping them 27 rating points.  However, that only resulted in them moving down one spot in the rankings, to 27th, but we now calculate that they’ve only got a 2% chance of making the playoffs, down from last week’s 13%!  Their losses were to 20th-ranked Florida, 26th-ranked Philadelphia, 32nd-ranked Chicago, and 7th-ranked Pittsburgh.

Boston remains our favourites to win both the President’s Trophy and the Stanley Cup.  We’re giving them an 82% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, up 25% from last week, with the next closest teams being Carolina and Toronto, the only other teams to have greater than a 1% chance of winning it, both at 6%.  We’ve calculated that Boston has a 19% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up 5% from last week, with Toronto, Carolina, and Dallas the next most likely, at 9%, 8%, and 7%, respectively.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1632, ▲19)

Record: 32-4-4, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 82% (▲25)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 19% (▲5)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 2: Won 2-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1540)
• January 5: Won 5-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (12th, 1524)
• January 7: Won 4-2 @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1426)
• January 8: Won 7-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)

Next week:

• January 12: vs. Seattle Kraken (14th, 1520)
• January 14: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd, 1591)

2. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲1 (1591, ▼3)

Record: 25-9-7, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-1

• January 3: Lost in SO 6-5 vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1509)
• January 5: Lost 5-1 vs. Seattle Kraken (14th, 1520)
• January 7: Won 4-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1465)
• January 8: Won 6-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (26th, 1457)

Next week:

• January 11: vs. Nashville Predators (19th, 1507)
• January 12: @ Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1465)
• January 14: @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1632)

3. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1578, ▼21)

Record: 25-8-7, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼16)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-1

• January 3: Lost 5-3 @ New York Rangers (5th, 1555)
• January 5: Lost 5-3 vs. Nashville Predators (19th, 1507)
• January 7: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1396)

Next week:

• January 10: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1513)
• January 12: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1396)
• January 14: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1540)
• January 15: vs. Vancouver Canucks (25th, 1464)

4. Dallas Stars (1559, ▼12)

Record: 24-11-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▼2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• January 3: Lost 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (12th, 1524)
• January 4: Lost 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)
• January 8: Won 5-1 vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1504)

Next week:

• January 10: @ New York Islanders (16th, 1514)
• January 12: @ New York Rangers (5th, 1555)
• January 14: vs. Calgary Flames (11th, 1529)

5. New York Rangers ▲3 (1555, ▲13)

Record: 22-12-7, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 78% (▲14)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• January 3: Won 5-3 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (3rd, 1578)
• January 5: Won 4-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1408)
• January 7: Lost in OT 4-3 @ New Jersey Devils (17th, 1513)

Next week:

• January 10: vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1538)
• January 12: vs. Dallas Stars (4th, 1559)
• January 15: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1408)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1632 (▲19)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      1591 (▼3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1578 (▼21)
 4       Dallas Stars                  1559 (▼12)
 5       New York Rangers (▲3)         1555 (▲13)
 6       Washington Capitals           1544 (▼2)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1540 (▼6)
 8       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      1539 (▼9)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild                1538 (▼2)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1538 (▲19)
11       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1529 (▼2)
12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1524 (▼3)
12 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1524 (▲11)
14       Seattle Kraken (▲7)           1520 (▲27)
15       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1517 (▲6)
16       New York Islanders (▼4)       1514 (▼7)
17       New Jersey Devils (▼3)        1513 (▼1)
18       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1509 (▲12)
19       Nashville Predators (▲4)      1507 (▲25)
20       Florida Panthers              1504 (▲8)
21       Buffalo Sabres (▼3)           1503 (▲2)
22       Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       1498 (▼14)
23       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1471 (▼3)
24       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1465 (▼20)
25       Vancouver Canucks             1464 (▼4)
26       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1457 (▲8)
27       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1430 (▼27)
28       San Jose Sharks               1426 (▼4)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1408 (▼1)
30       Columbus Blue Jackets         1396 (▼11)
31       Anaheim Ducks                 1383
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1374 (▲5)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           61% (▼15)
 2       New Jersey Devils             12% (▲5)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         11% (▲7)
 4       Washington Capitals           8% (▲3)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      7% (▲1)
 6       New York Islanders            2%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 91% (▲14)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▼10)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           1% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  45% (▼17)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 34% (▲19)
 3       Minnesota Wild                12% (▼1)
 4       Colorado Avalanche            4% (▼3)
 5       Nashville Predators           3% (▲2)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          2% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          36% (▼2)
 2       Seattle Kraken (▲2)           28% (▲14)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        17%
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           10% (▼6)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼6)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           98% (▼1)
 2       New Jersey Devils             79% (▲4)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         78% (▲14)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      74% (▲1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      68% (▼5)
 6       New York Islanders            42% (▼8)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers           3%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           98%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           84% (▼3)
 4       Buffalo Sabres                40% (▲11)
 5       Florida Panthers (▲1)         14% (▲3)
 6       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        11% (▼15)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          10% (▼1)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  96% (▼2)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 93% (▲8)
 3       Minnesota Wild                77% (▼5)
 4       Colorado Avalanche            54% (▼15)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      48% (▲19)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          42% (▲9)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               2% (▼11)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          90% (▲2)
 2       Seattle Kraken (▲3)           84% (▲18)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        78% (▲4)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           65% (▼7)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          60% (▼9)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             12% (▼8)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 82% (▲25)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6% (▼16)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      6% (▼4)
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1% (▼4)
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 19% (▲5)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      9% (▼1)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      8% (▼3)
 4       Dallas Stars                  7% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild                5%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            5% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           4%
 8 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲5)        4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲9)           4% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5)     4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      4%
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼7)          3% (▼1)
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        3%
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7)      3% (▼1)
17 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼4)       2% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2% (▲1)
17 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          2% (▲1)
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2)           1%
21 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         1%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        <1% (▼1)

 

The McDonald NHL Power Ratings reports are back!  After a long hiatus, I’ve returned, and the season looks quite interesting.

Boston is our top-ranked team, with a current score of 1613 rating points, above that “great team” 1600 rating point level.  They are having an amazing season, with a 28-4-4 record.  Surprisingly, two of their overtime losses came in the past week, as they lost 3-2 in a shootout to 24th-ranked Ottawa and 4-3 in overtime to 18th-ranked Buffalo.  But, they also had a 3-1 win over 14th-ranked New Jersey, so we actually gave them a 1 point bump in their rating.  We’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a greater than even (57%) chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 14% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, even though the season isn’t even half over yet!  But, things can change, so it’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.

Carolina is the number 2 ranked team this week, up one position from last week.  They are sitting with 1599 rating points, just one point under the “great team” line.  We bumped them up 7 rating points and one position this week.  Although they had an easy week, they did go 3-0-0, with shutouts in regulation time over bottom-ranked Chicago and 20th-ranked Florida, and a shootout win over 14th-ranked New Jersey.  We’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and the second most likely team to win the President’s Trophy (22%) and Stanley Cup (11%).

Toronto is ranked number 3 this week, down from 2nd last week.  They played three games on the road last week, beating 19th-ranked St. Louis in overtime, losing to 26th-ranked Arizona, then bouncing back by beating 16th-ranked Colorado.  We’ve calculated that they’ve got a 98% chance of making the playoffs, and a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The surprising Dallas Stars come in 4th place in our rankings this week.  They had an outstanding week, winning all three of their games in regulation time, with victories over 23rd-ranked Nashville, 9th-ranked Minnesota, and 28th-ranked San Jose.  Their impressive showing gave them a 19 point bump in rating points from the boys in the back room, which moved them up from 5th in last week’s rankings.  We’re giving them a 98% chance of making the playoffs and a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Rounding out this week’s top 5 is Tampa Bay, who moved into these hallowed heights with a 3-0-0 week, moving them up from 7th in last week’s rankings.  They defeated 29th-ranked Montreal and 26th-ranked Arizona in regulation time, as well as the 8th-ranked New York Rangers in a shootout.  Despite being in the top 5 in our rankings, they are 3rd in the Atlantic Division, behind #1 Boston and #3 Toronto!  What a tough division!

The top performing team this week was the aforementioned Dallas, with their 3-0-0 week and a 19-point leap in rating points.  Stinkers this week included bottom-ranked Chicago, who dropped 20 rating points to an abysmal 1369 score after losing all 4 of this week’s games in regulation time, and Pittsburgh, last week’s #4 who went 0-2-1 and dropped 19 rating points and 2 ranking positions.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1613, ▲1)

Record: 28-4-4, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 57% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14%

Last week: 1-0-2

• December 27: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Ottawa Senators (24th, 1474)
• December 28: Won 3-1 @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1514)
• December 31: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (18th, 1501)

Next week:

• January 2: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1546)
• January 5: @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1513)
• January 7: @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1430)
• January 8: @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)

2. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1599, ▲7)

Record: 25-6-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• December 27: Won 3-0 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1369)
• December 30: Won 4-0 vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1496)
• January 1: Won in SO 5-4 @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1514)

Next week:

• January 3: @ New York Rangers (8th, 1542)
• January 5: vs. Nashville Predators (23rd, 1482)
• January 7: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1407)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1594, ▼4)

Record: 23-8-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• December 27: Won in OT 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (19th, 1497)
• December 29: Lost 6-3 @ Arizona Coyotes (26th, 1457)
• December 31: Won 6-2 @ Colorado Avalanche (16th, 1512)

Next week:

• January 3: vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1497)
• January 5: vs. Seattle Kraken (21st, 1493)
• January 7: vs. Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1485)
• January 8: @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1449)

4. Dallas Stars ▲1 (1571, ▲19)

Record: 23-9-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• December 27: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (23rd, 1482)
• December 29: Won 4-1 @ Minnesota Wild (9th, 1540)
• December 31: Won 5-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1430)

Next week:

• January 3: @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1513)
• January 4: @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)
• January 8: vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1496)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲2 (1548, ▲8)

Record: 23-11-1, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• December 28: Won 4-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1409)
• December 29: Won in SO 2-1 vs. New York Rangers (8th, 1542)
• December 31: Won 5-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (26th, 1457)

Next week:

• January 3: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1369)
• January 4: @ Minnesota Wild (9th, 1540)
• January 6: @ Winnipeg Jets (13th, 1519)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1613 (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1599 (▲7)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1594 (▼4)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             1571 (▲19)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      1548 (▲8)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1546 (▼19)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      1546 (▲11)
 8       New York Rangers (▼2)         1542
 9       Minnesota Wild                1540 (▲8)
10       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1531 (▲5)
11       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1527 (▲8)
12       New York Islanders (▲2)       1521 (▲4)
13       Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            1519 (▲7)
14       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1514 (▲4)
15       Los Angeles Kings             1513 (▼2)
16       Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       1512 (▼17)
17       Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     1511 (▼10)
18       Buffalo Sabres (▲3)           1501 (▲2)
19       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1497 (▼3)
20       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1496 (▼8)
21       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           1493 (▼8)
22       Detroit Red Wings             1485 (▲2)
23       Nashville Predators           1482 (▲1)
24       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1474 (▲6)
25       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1468 (▼6)
26       Arizona Coyotes               1457 (▲14)
27       Philadelphia Flyers           1449 (▲11)
28       San Jose Sharks               1430 (▼4)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1409 (▼13)
30       Columbus Blue Jackets         1407 (▲2)
31       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1383 (▼5)
32       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1369 (▼20)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           76% (▲14)
 2       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        7% (▼1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      6% (▼12)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲1)      5% (▲1)
 5       New York Rangers (▼1)         4% (▼2)
 6       New York Islanders            2%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 77%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           18% (▼2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  62% (▲20)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            15% (▼2)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           13% (▼2)
 4       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       7% (▼14)
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators           1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues               1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          38% (▼4)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        17% (▲3)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲1)           16% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          14% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼2)           14% (▼5)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99% (▲1)
 2       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        75% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      73% (▼14)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      73% (▲9)
 5       New York Rangers (▼1)         64% (▼3)
 6       New York Islanders            50% (▲2)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers           3% (▲1)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           98% (▲1)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           87% (▲8)
 4       Buffalo Sabres                29%
 5       Detroit Red Wings             26% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              11% (▼8)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          11% (▲3)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            1% (▼3)

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  98% (▲4)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            85% (▲5)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           82% (▲6)
 4       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       69% (▼13)
 5       St. Louis Blues               33% (▼4)
 6       Nashville Predators           29% (▼1)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               13% (▲4)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          88% (▼2)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        74% (▲3)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲1)           72% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          69% (▲9)
 5       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           66% (▼8)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             20% (▼6)
 7       San Jose Sharks               1% (▼1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 57% (▼3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           22% (▲6)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           10% (▼2)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             5% (▲3)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      2% (▲1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1%
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 14%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      11% (▲1)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      10% (▼1)
 4       Dallas Stars                  9% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           5%
 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames                4%
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲5)          4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              4%
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      4% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5)      4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            4% (▲1)
13 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3%
13 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        3%
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼6)     3% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       2%
17 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼5)           2% (▼1)
19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1%
19 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         1%
19 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1%
19 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1%
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
25 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
25 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
25 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
25 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
25 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

 

Ah, the NHL season is about to start!  The team at McDonald NHL Power Ratings has updated our models and run our simulations, and we’ve come up with our predictions for the upcoming season.

Remember, teams have changed from last year — players have moved, retired, or come into the league, and players are older (none of the players this year are younger than last year — go figure!).  As a result, we’ve added uncertainty into our models; that results in the initial ratings being lower than they might otherwise be, but they’ll eventually sort themselves out.  Our experience has been that after the first 10 games, our ratings have adjusted to the new reality.

Last year, Colorado was our top-ranked team almost the entire year.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, they ended up winning the Stanley Cup!  But, there’s 32 teams, and anything can happen.  Now, having said that, our favourite to win the Stanley Cup this year is … Colorado!  They are both our top-ranked team, and one of the three teams that we think have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  The other two teams are Carolina and Toronto.  Yes, Toronto!  We really should update our models to automatically give the Leafs no chance of winning, but maybe this is the year….  Hah — that’s what I said last year, and look what happened (they lost in the first round of the playoffs to defending champion and eventual runner-up Tampa Bay)!  Anyways, Colorado, Carolina, and Toronto all have a 6% chance of winning the Cup this year.  Those same three teams are also favourites to win the President’s Trophy as the team with the best record in the regular season, all with a 7% chance.

Looking at just the Canadian teams, of course Toronto is the most likely to bring the Cup home at 6%, but they’re closely followed by Calgary (5%) and Edmonton (4%).  Overall, we’ve calculated that there’s a 24.3% chance of a Canadian team winning it, which is slightly better than the percentage of Canadian teams in the NHL (7 of 32 teams, or 21.9%).

Anyways, here’s the rankings and ratings.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1551
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           1549
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           1547
 4       Calgary Flames                1543
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers              1541
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues               1541
 7       Minnesota Wild                1538
 8       New York Rangers              1532
 9       Edmonton Oilers               1531
10 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1530
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           1530
12       Pittsburgh Penguins           1520
13       Los Angeles Kings             1517
14       Washington Capitals           1515
15       Vancouver Canucks             1513
16       Vegas Golden Knights          1508
17       Nashville Predators           1506
18       Dallas Stars                  1505
19       New York Islanders            1504
20       Winnipeg Jets                 1503
21       Buffalo Sabres                1484
22       Ottawa Senators               1476
23       Columbus Blue Jackets         1475
24       Detroit Red Wings             1466
25       San Jose Sharks               1465
26       Anaheim Ducks                 1460
27       Seattle Kraken                1454
28       Arizona Coyotes               1450
29       Chicago Blackhawks            1447
30       New Jersey Devils             1446
31       Philadelphia Flyers           1442
32       Montreal Canadiens            1441

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           25%
 2       New York Rangers              19%
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           16%
 4       Washington Capitals           14%
 5       New York Islanders            12%
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         7%
 7       New Jersey Devils             4%
 8       Philadelphia Flyers           3%

Atlantic Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           24%
 2       Florida Panthers              21%
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins                 17%
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           17%
 5       Buffalo Sabres                7%
 6       Ottawa Senators               6%
 7       Detroit Red Wings             5%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            3%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            24%
 2       St. Louis Blues               20%
 3       Minnesota Wild                19%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  10%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           10%
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 10%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               3%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            3%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                24%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               19%
 3       Los Angeles Kings             15%
 4       Vancouver Canucks             14%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          13%
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 5%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               5%
 8       Seattle Kraken                4%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           71%
 2       New York Rangers              65%
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           60%
 4       Washington Capitals           58%
 5       New York Islanders            52%
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         38%
 7       New Jersey Devils             26%
 8       Philadelphia Flyers           25%

Atlantic Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           72%
 2       Florida Panthers              69%
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins                 63%
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           63%
 5       Buffalo Sabres                41%
 6       Ottawa Senators               39%
 7       Detroit Red Wings             34%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            24%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            71%
 2       St. Louis Blues               67%
 3       Minnesota Wild                66%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  51%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           51%
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 50%
 7       Arizona Coyotes               27%
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            25%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                69%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               64%
 3       Los Angeles Kings             57%
 4       Vancouver Canucks             56%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          53%
 6       San Jose Sharks               33%
 7       Anaheim Ducks                 31%
 8       Seattle Kraken                29%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           7%
 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            7%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           7%
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames                6%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              6%
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild                6%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6%
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins                 5%
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               5%
 8 (tie) New York Rangers              5%
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           5%
12       Pittsburgh Penguins           4%
13 (tie) Dallas Stars                  3%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             3%
13 (tie) New York Islanders            3%
13 (tie) Nashville Predators           3%
13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             3%
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          3%
13 (tie) Washington Capitals           3%
20       Winnipeg Jets                 2%
21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators               1%
21 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1%
30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
30 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
30 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6%
 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            6%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           6%
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames                5%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              5%
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild                5%
 4 (tie) New York Rangers              5%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               5%
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins                 4%
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               4%
 9 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             4%
 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           4%
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
14 (tie) Dallas Stars                  3%
14 (tie) New York Islanders            3%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators           3%
14 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             3%
14 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          3%
14 (tie) Washington Capitals           3%
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 3%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                2%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         2%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators               2%
24 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
24 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1%
24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            1%
24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1%
24 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1%
24 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
24 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           1%
24 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
24 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1%