Last night, it was Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final, with the New York Rangers playing the Lightning in Tampa Bay.  New York had a 2-1 lead, and with Game 5 heading back to New York, two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay needed a win.  And they came through!  Tampa Bay scored early, going up 1-0 2:38 into the game, and held that lead through the 1st period.  In the second period, Tampa Bay scored the only goal, and went into the 3rd period leading 2-0.  They scored again 5 minutes into the 3rd to take a 3-0 lead, but the Rangers managed to score a powerplay goal with 3 and a half minutes left, but that was all they could manage.  The Lightning scored an empty netter with 9 seconds left to take the game 4-1.

With the Tampa Bay win, the series is now tied 2 games apiece.  The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team is now giving the Lightning a slight edge to win the series, with a 51.4% chance, despite 2 of the next 3 games being held in New York, and all games so far in the series have been won by the home team.

There is no game tonight, as Colorado won the Western Conference Final in 4 games.  The next game goes tomorrow night, with Tampa Bay playing in New York.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 51.4% chance of winning the series, up from 34.3%

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 48.6% chance of winning (▼17.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼24.4)
  • In 6 games: 22.9% (▲1.9)
  • In 7 games: 25.7% (▲5.4)
• Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning (▲17.1)
  • In 7 games: 22.8% (▲4.9)
  • In 6 games: 28.7% (▲12.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Thursday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 48.6%, Tampa Bay 51.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 48.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 22.9%
  • In 7 games: 25.7%
• Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 22.8%
  • In 6 games: 28.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

What a game!  Game 4 of the Western Conference Final went last night, with Colorado playing in Edmonton.  Colorado led the series 3-0, but both teams were playing like they were on the edge of elimination!  Colorado led 1-0 after the first period, but Edmonton tied it up early in the second period, and it stayed tied at 1 until there were 3 minutes left in the second period, and then things exploded!  Edmonton scored twice at the tail end of the period and led 3-1 going into the final frame.  The fireworks continued as Colorado scored 31 seconds into the 3rd period to narrow the lead to 3-2, but then Edmonton scored again to move up 4-2 after 4 minutes.  Then, Colorado exploded for 3 more goals to take a 5-4 lead with 5 minutes left, but Edmonton came storming back and tied it back up with three and a half minutes left.  That’s the way regulation time ended, 5-5, after 6 goals were scored in the 3rd period, and 8 goals in the last 23 minutes!  Overtime didn’t last long, as Artturi Lehkonen scored 1:19 in to win the game, and the series, for Colorado.

Cale Makar led the Avalanche, scoring once and assisting on four other Colorado goals!  Not to be outdone (not by much, anyways), Leon Draisaitl had four assists for Edmonton.  Backup goalie Pavel Francouz got the start, and the win, for Colorado.  With the sweep, Colorado now moves on to the final, awaiting the winner of the Eastern Conference Final, which will go at least 5 games.  Unfortunately, there is now no chance that a Canadian team will win the Stanley Cup again this year.  Thanks, Toronto!

And tonight’s game is Game 4 of that Eastern Conference Final.  The New York Rangers play in Tampa Bay, with a 2-1 series lead.  We have calculated that New York now has a 65.7% chance of winning that series.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

• Colorado wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Tampa Bay

• NY Rangers leads series 2-1
• NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 65.7%, Tampa Bay 34.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 24.4%
  • In 6 games: 21.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.3%
• Tampa Bay has a 34.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 17.9%
  • In 6 games: 16.4%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

In last night’s game, the New York Rangers travelled to Tampa Bay to face the Lightning, with the Rangers holding a 2-0 series lead.  In a close close game, Tampa Bay came back from being down 2-0 to take the victory with a 3-2 final score when Ondrej Palat scored the go-ahead goal with 42 seconds left in the game.  Tampa Bay peppered Ranger goalie Igor Shesterkin with 52 shots, outshooting New York 19-6 in the third period when they outscored them 2-0.  With the victory, the Lightning trail the Rangers 2-1 in the series, and we’ve calculated that the Rangers are still the favourites to win the series, now with a 65.7% chance of winning it, down from 78.4% after Game 2.

Tonight, Edmonton hosts Colorado, with Colorado hoping to sweep the series, as they currently hold a 3-0 lead.  We’re giving Colorado a 97.0% chance of winning the series, and a 56.0% chance of finishing off the series tonight.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3

• NY Rangers leads series 2-1
• NY Rangers now has a 65.7% chance of winning the series, down from 78.4%

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning (▼12.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼21.1)
  • In 5 games: 24.4% (▼2.7)
  • In 6 games: 21.0% (▲5.1)
  • In 7 games: 20.3% (▲6.1)
• Tampa Bay has a 34.3% chance of winning (▲12.7)
  • In 7 games: 17.9% (▲5.3)
  • In 6 games: 16.4% (▲7.4)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado at Edmonton

• Colorado leads series 3-0
• Colorado has a 97.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 65.7%, Tampa Bay 34.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 24.4%
  • In 6 games: 21.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.3%
• Tampa Bay has a 34.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 17.9%
  • In 6 games: 16.4%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 97.0%, Edmonton 3.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 97.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 56.0%
  • In 5 games: 28.6%
  • In 6 games: 7.9%
  • In 7 games: 4.6%
• Edmonton has a 3.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 3.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

In a tight game, the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Edmonton Oilers in Edmonton by a score of 4-2.  The Oilers took the lead when Connor McDavid scored on the very first shot of the game, 38 seconds in.  The Avalanche tied it up before the end of the first period, and held a 2-1 lead after two periods.  The Oilers tied it up on a Ryan McLeod goal at 7:34 of the third, before J.T. Compher put the Avs back in front 5 minutes later.  The Oilers couldn’t come back, and the Avs finished the game with an empty netter.

The win gives the Avalanche a 3-0 series lead.  We’ve calculated that they now have a 97.0% chance of winning the series, and a 56.0% chance of sweeping it with a victory on Monday.  The Oilers have been playing well, but they’ll need to win the next 4 against the top-rated team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and although possible (3% chance), it’s not very likely to happen.

There’s an afternoon game today as Tampa Bay hosts the New York Rangers.  The Rangers hold a 2-0 lead in the series, and Tampa Bay needs help from the home advantage to get back into the series.  We’re giving the Rangers a 78.4% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2

• Colorado leads series 3-0
• Colorado now has a 97.0% chance of winning the series, up from 87.9%

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 97.0% chance of winning (▲9.1)
  • In 4 games: 56.0% (▲25.7)
  • In 5 games: 28.6% (▼2.4)
  • In 6 games: 7.9% (▼7.5)
  • In 7 games: 4.6% (▼6.7)
• Edmonton has a 3.0% chance of winning (▼9.1)
  • In 7 games: 3.0% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼4.6)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Tampa Bay

• NY Rangers leads series 2-0
• NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 78.4%, Tampa Bay 21.6%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 21.1%
  • In 5 games: 27.1%
  • In 6 games: 15.9%
  • In 7 games: 14.2%
• Tampa Bay has a 21.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.6%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 97.0%, Edmonton 3.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 97.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 56.0%
  • In 5 games: 28.6%
  • In 6 games: 7.9%
  • In 7 games: 4.6%
• Edmonton has a 3.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 3.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

Home sweet home!  In last night’s Eastern Conference Finals playoff game, the New York Rangers won their eighth straight home playoff game, 3-2, and took a 2-0 lead in their series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.  Igor Shesterkin, the Ranger goalie, was the star of the game, stopping 29 Lightning shots, including a number of tough saves in the final minute to preserve the win.  With the 2-0 lead, we’ve calculated that the Rangers now have a 78.4% chance of winning the series, up from 62.1%.  Game 3 goes on Sunday in Tampa Bay.

In tonight’s game, Colorado travels to Edmonton to face the Oilers.  The Avalanche have a 2-0 series lead, and the boys in the back room have calculated that Colorado now has an 87.9% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3

• NY Rangers leads series 2-0
• NY Rangers now has a 78.4% chance of winning the series, up from 62.1%

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning (▲16.3)
  • In 4 games: 21.1% (▲9.4)
  • In 5 games: 27.1% (▲7.7)
  • In 6 games: 15.9% (▲0.8)
  • In 7 games: 14.2% (▼1.7)
• Tampa Bay has a 21.6% chance of winning (▼16.3)
  • In 7 games: 12.6% (▼1.5)
  • In 6 games: 9.0% (▼6.6)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼8.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado at Edmonton

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 78.4%, Tampa Bay 21.6%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 21.1%
  • In 5 games: 27.1%
  • In 6 games: 15.9%
  • In 7 games: 14.2%
• Tampa Bay has a 21.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.6%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 87.9%, Edmonton 12.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 30.3%
  • In 5 games: 31.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.4%
  • In 7 games: 11.3%
• Edmonton has a 12.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 4.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

Last night in the Western Conference Final, favourite Colorado hosted Edmonton, leading the series 1-0.  In what was actually a pretty close game, Colorado won 4-0 to take a pretty commanding series lead heading to Edmonton.  4-0 was a close game?  Well, it was close until Colorado exploded for 3 goals in 2:04 early in the second period!  Until then, it was a very close game (you can’t get much closer than 0-0, I suppose), and it stayed close checking until late in the third period when Colorado scored their fourth of the night.  Pavel Francouz, the Avalanche backup goalie, got the shutout victory, as he started in place of an injured Darcy Kuemper.

Game 3 goes on Friday night in Edmonton.  Our calculations show that Colorado now has an 87.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.9% before Game 2.  They also have a 30.3% chance of sweeping the series!

In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay visits the New York Rangers, with the Rangers holding a 1-0 lead in that series.  New York has a 62.1% chance of winning that series.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado now has a 87.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.9%

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning (▲11.0)
  • In 4 games: 30.3% (▲11.0)
  • In 5 games: 31.0% (▲5.1)
  • In 6 games: 15.4% (▼1.6)
  • In 7 games: 11.3% (▼3.4)
• Edmonton has a 12.1% chance of winning (▼11.0)
  • In 7 games: 7.5% (▼2.2)
  • In 6 games: 4.6% (▼4.7)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼4.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

• NY Rangers leads series 1-0
• NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 62.1%, Tampa Bay 37.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 11.7%
  • In 5 games: 19.4%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 37.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
  • In 6 games: 15.6%
  • In 5 games: 8.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 87.9%, Edmonton 12.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 30.3%
  • In 5 games: 31.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.4%
  • In 7 games: 11.3%
• Edmonton has a 12.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 4.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

The Eastern Conference Finals of the Stanley Cup playoffs started last night, with Tampa Bay heading to New York to face the Rangers.  Although the Lightning had a slight advantage according to the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team (54.4% chance of winning the series), home ice advantage proved too powerful, as the Rangers won decisively 6-2.  Filip Chytil scored twice and Igor Shesterkin made 37 saves in net to lead New York to their seventh straight home playoff victory.  With the win, we’ve now calculated that the Rangers are more likely to win the series, with a 62.1% chance of doing so.

Tonight, Edmonton travels to Colorado to play the Avalanche.  Colorado won the first game of the series, and we’re now giving Colorado  76.9% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6

• NY Rangers leads series 1-0
• NY Rangers now has a 62.1% chance of winning the series, up from 45.6%

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning (▲16.5)
  • In 4 games: 11.7% (▲5.5)
  • In 5 games: 19.4% (▲6.7)
  • In 6 games: 15.1% (▲3.1)
  • In 7 games: 15.9% (▲1.3)
• Tampa Bay has a 37.9% chance of winning (▼16.5)
  • In 7 games: 14.1% (▲1.2)
  • In 6 games: 15.6% (▼2.3)
  • In 5 games: 8.3% (▼5.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.6)

Today’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton at Colorado

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 62.1%, Tampa Bay 37.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 11.7%
  • In 5 games: 19.4%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 37.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
  • In 6 games: 15.6%
  • In 5 games: 8.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 76.9%, Edmonton 23.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 19.3%
  • In 5 games: 25.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.3%
  • In 5 games: 4.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

The Western Conference Finals have started, and what a lot of scoring!  Edmonton visited Colorado, and in a real barn-burner, Colorado held off the Oilers and won 8-6!  In what has been billed as a showdown between the two best offensive players in the league, Nathan MacKinnon for Colorado and Connor McDavid for Edmonton, both players scored one goal, while McDavid assisted on two others to MacKinnon’s one assist.  13 different players scored in this game, with only the Avalanche’s J.T. Compher scoring more than once (he potted two).

Colorado is the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, and they are our favourite to win this series.  After winning this first game, we’ve now calculated that they have a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up 12.8% points from before this game.

In tonight’s game, the Eastern Conference Finals begin, with two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning travelling to New York to face the Rangers.  Although Tampa Bay hasn’t beat the Rangers in their three meetings this year, we’re giving the Lightning the edge in the series, 54.4% to 45.6%.  We’ll see how those numbers hold up after tonight’s game!

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado now has a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up from 64.1%

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning (▲12.8)
  • In 4 games: 19.3% (▲7.3)
  • In 5 games: 25.9% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▲0.9)
  • In 7 games: 14.7% (▼1.4)
• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning (▼12.8)
  • In 7 games: 9.7% (▼0.8)
  • In 6 games: 9.3% (▼3.3)
  • In 5 games: 4.0% (▼4.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.6)

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

• Series tied 0-0
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 45.6%, Tampa Bay 54.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 45.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 6.2%
  • In 5 games: 12.7%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.9%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 9.6%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 76.9%, Edmonton 23.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
• defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 19.3%
  • In 5 games: 25.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.3%
  • In 5 games: 4.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs have ended, and we’re on to the Conference Finals!  4 teams left, battling for that hallowed Cup.

In the Eastern Conference, no top-seeded team advanced to the Conference Final.  In the Atlantic Division, Tampa Bay surprised top-seeded Florida with a four game sweep.  Maybe it wasn’t so much of a surprise, as Tampa Bay is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion.  In the Metropolitan Division, the New York Rangers needed seven games to beat the that division’s top seed, Carolina.

Over in the Western Conference, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, Colorado, beat St. Louis in six games, becoming the only top seed to advance to the Conference Finals.  And in the Pacific Division, Edmonton surprised top-seeded Calgary in just 5 games to win their division.

Here’s a quick summary of the second round:

Eastern Conference:

• Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay (3rd) defeated Florida (1st) in 4 games
• Metropolitan Division: NY Rangers (2nd) defeated Carolina (1st) in 7 games

Western Conference:

• Central Division: Colorado (1st) defeated St. Louis (3rd) in 6 games
• Pacific Division: Edmonton (2nd) defeated Calgary (1st) in 5 games

Although the 2nd round of the playoffs have already started, I wasn’t able to get my playoff preview done because I had such crappy internet access on the cruise ship.  But, better late than never — here’s the McDonald NHL Power Ratings 2nd Round Playoff Preview!  You can also think of the 2nd Round as the Division Finals.

So, there’s four teams left in the playoff hunt.  We’ve run our extensive analyses and tweaked our algorithms, and have determined the following ratings and rankings of these last four teams:

Rank    Team                          Rating
 1       Colorado Avalanche            1635
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           1603
 3       Edmonton Oilers               1589
 4       New York Rangers              1581

Once again, we’re giving Colorado the best chance of winning their series, as we’ve calculated they have a 64.1% chance of winning their series over Edmonton.  In the East, our favourites are Tampa Bay, who have a 54.4% chance of beating the Rangers.  54.4 to 45.6 — that[‘s not much of a difference!  Here’s the chances we’ve calculated of each team winning the Stanley Cup:

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

The final two stats of interesting: we’ve calculated that there’s a 57.1% chance of a Western Conference team winning the Stanley Cup (up from 53.3% after the first round), and a 17.4% chance of a Canadian team winning it all (down from 18.9% after the first round).

Here’s our summary!

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 45.6%, Tampa Bay 54.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 45.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 6.2%
  • In 5 games: 12.7%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.9%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 9.6%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 64.1%, Edmonton 35.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
• defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 64.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.0%
  • In 5 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 16.1%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Edmonton has a 35.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.5%
  • In 6 games: 12.6%
  • In 5 games: 8.1%
  • In 4 games: 4.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

The last game of the second round went last night.  Expecting an exciting Game 7, I was disappointed, as the New York Rangers easily defeated Carolina 6-2.  Goalie Igor Shesterkin was the star of the game for the Rangers, as he made 37 saves and shut down the Hurricanes early.  Chris Kreider scored two goals to lead the Rangers offense.  With the win, New York wins the series 4 games to 3, and will move on to face the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

The next round of the playoffs begins tonight, with Edmonton travelling to Colorado to start the Western Conference final.  The Eastern Conference final starts on Wednesday.  See the McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Preview for details of the next round!

Yesterday’s Game

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 6 at Carolina 2

• NY Rangers wins series 4-3

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 30: NY Rangers 6 at Carolina 2

Today’s Game

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts)

Edmonton at Colorado

• Series tied 0-0
• Colorado has a 64.1% chance of winning the series

Second Round Playoff Summary

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 30: NY Rangers 6 at Carolina 2

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)