2022/23 NHL schedule and results in Excel .xlsx and csv formats

The post you’re currently reading is about the 2022/23 NHL schedule. If you’re looking for the 2023/24 NHL schedule, you can find it in this post.

Note: Schedule last updated April 15, 2023.

Here’s a copy of the 2022/23 NHL schedule and the results of each of the games played so far in Excel .xlsx format, and here’s another copy in CSV format. Of course, the season hasn’t started yet, so the results are empty right now, but I’ll try to update them each morning through the regular season.

The Excel file consists of 2 worksheets: one contains the original NHL schedule as described in this post; the other, named As-Played Schedule, contains the same contents, with the addition of the scores for each team and whether the game hasn’t been played yet, was won in regulation time, overtime, or in a shootout. Here’s a quick summary of the columns:

Date: the date of the game
Start Time (Sask): the game’s start time in Saskatchewan (where I live!)
Start Time (ET): the game’s start time in Eastern time (which is the time the NHL website shows)
Visitor: the name of the visiting team
Score: the visiting team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
Home: the name of the home team
Score: the home team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
Status: one of the following:
- Scheduled: if the game hasn’t been played yet
- Postponed: if the game has been postponed, but not yet rescheduled
- Regulation: if the game ended in regulation time
- OT: if the game ended in overtime
- SO: if the game ended in a shootout

For example, here’s the first couple lines of the worksheet from a previous year’s file:

In this example, the game was played on January 13, 2021 at 4:30 PM in Saskatchewan and 5:30 PM Eastern time, the home team Philadelphia beat the visiting team Pittsburgh 6-3 in regulation time

Just a brief explanation why I’ve got two time fields in here. Saskatchewan doesn’t observe Daylight Savings time, so for part of the schedule, we have a one-hour time difference from Eastern time, and for the rest of the schedule, we have a two-hour time difference. Of course, I’m more interested in the time in Saskatchewan, but to make it easier for other people to use, I’ve also included Eastern time.

The CSV file contains only the As-Played worksheet. It has the same fields as described for the Excel file. You can easily import this file into Excel or whatever spreadsheet of your choice!

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 4

Yet another exciting weekend of games in the CFL this week, although there weren’t many surprises in the final results. The West continues their dominance of the East, as Western teams defeated Eastern teams in all four games this weekend. And Winnipeg remains at the top of the field, despite a squeaker over Toronto on the 4th of July game (why is the CANADIAN Football League celebrating the US Independence Day???).

The weekend started off with Thursday Night Football, where British Columbia travelled to Ottawa to face the RedBlacks in the nation’s capital. It was probably a good idea to avoid conflicting with the Canada Day celebrations, as British Columbia triumphed over Ottawa 34-31. BC’s young Canadian quarterback, Nathan Rourke, continued to impress, going 23 for 31 and 359 yards and throwing two touchdowns, despite throwing two interceptions and losing the ball once on a fumble. He also scored a touchdown on the ground, rambling for 50 yards for the score! The Lions offense also benefited from receiver Keon Hatcher catching seven passes for 166 yards and a touchdown, and running back James Butler running for 129 yards and two touchdowns. Ottawa was led by their defense, especially DB Monshadrik Hunter who made two interceptions and recovered a fumble, as the RedBlack defense scored 17 points off turnovers.

Friday’s Canada Day game saw Edmonton travel to Hamilton, as two 0-3 teams faced off. In a surprise to the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team, Edmonton came back and defeated Hamilton 29-25. Edmonton trailed Hamilton 22-9 in the third quarter, but their defense came up strong, as defensive back Jalen Collins returned a fumble for the winning touchdown with less than two minutes to go in the game. Hamilton pretty much self-destructed at the end of the game, as two passes bounced out of the hands of Ticat receivers for interceptions late in the game. Edmonton quarterback Tre Ford, another Canadian quarterback, got his first career start for the Elks, and went 15 for 26 for 159 yards, as well as rushed for 61 yards on 6 carries.

Saturday saw Montreal travel to Saskatchewan. Playing at home, Saskatchewan looked to avenge last week’s 37-13 loss in Montreal, and they did, as the Riders convincingly defeated the Alouettes 41-20. Sadly, the Rider offense looked ineffective in the first half, as they trailed 13-11 30 minutes in. But, they switched up their game plan, and used running back Jamal Morrow to good effect as he gained 103 yards on 16 carries and scored a touchdown. But it was the Saskatchewan defense that made the difference in this game, as they made two interceptions, recovered two fumbles, and sacked the Als quarterback six times!

And in an odd scheduling choice, the weekend ended on a Monday with top-ranked, undefeated Winnipeg playing in Toronto against the best team in the East, as the Argonauts held a 1-1 record. In a surprisingly close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Toronto 23-22. As the game wound down, Toronto trailed by 7 points, and they engineered a last minute final drive for a touchdown to make the game 23-22, but they missed the convert and Winnipeg left Toronto with the victory. The defense was the star of the show for the Blue Bombers, as they had three sacks, two interceptions, and one fumble recovery, with one of the interceptions being a pick-six on Toronto’s opening drive of the game.

Week 4 Results

British Columbia 34 at Ottawa 31
Edmonton 29 at Hamilton 25
Montreal 20 at Saskatchewan 41
Winnipeg 23 at Toronto 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

As they have been all year, Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings. The only change in the rankings was British Columbia and Toronto swapping places for 4th and 5th, as 4 of the 5 Western teams hold down the top spots in the rankings. The fifth place team in the West, Edmonton, would be tied for first if they were in the Eastern Division, as their 1-3 record would be impressive for an Eastern team. All four Eastern teams now have ratings below the 1500 average rating, and four of the Western teams are above the average.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1587 (▲12)	4-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1555	3-0, T-2nd West
3	Saskatchewan	1547 (▲9)	3-1, T-2nd West
4 (▲1)	British Columbia	1507 (▲12)	3-0, T-2nd West
5 (▼1)	Toronto	1495 (▼12)	1-2, T-1st East
6	Montreal	1482 (▼9)	1-3, T-1st East
7	Hamilton	1472 (▼16)	0-4, T-3rd East
8	Edmonton	1450 (▲16)	1-3, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1419 (▼12)	0-3, T-3rd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, as we’ve calculated they now have a 29% chance of winning it all. That’s up 4% points from last week. They’ll face a test this weekend as they travel to British Columbia to face the hot 3-0 Lions. The only other big change in the chances this week was to Calgary, as their chances of winning dropped 3 percentage points, despite not playing this weekend! It’s tough playing in the same division as the Blue Bombers!

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 3% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1587	29% (▲4)
2	Calgary	1555	17% (▼3)
3 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1547	12% (▲1)
4 (▼1)	Montreal	1482	11% (▼1)
5	Toronto	1495	10%
T-6	Hamilton	1472	8% (▼1)
T-6 (▲1)	British Columbia	1507	8% (▲1)
8	Ottawa	1419	5% (▼1)
9	Edmonton	1450	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 4-0, 1st in West	1587	96%	69%	44%	69%	44%	29%
Calgary 3-0, T-2nd in West	1555	91%	53%	26%	53%	26%	17%
Saskatchewan 3-1, T-2nd in West	1547	88%	41%	17%	41%	17%	12%
Montreal 1-3, T-1st in East	1482	68%	63%	31%	63%	32%	11%
Toronto 1-2, T-1st in East	1495	73%	70%	42%	70%	28%	10%
Hamilton 0-4, T-3rd in East	1472	43%	39%	16%	39%	23%	8%
British Columbia 3-0, T-2nd in West	1507	82%	32%	13%	32%	13%	8%
Ottawa 0-3, T-3rd in East	1419	32%	28%	11%	28%	17%	5%
Edmonton 1-3, 5th in West	1450	27%	4%	1%	4%	1%	<1%

Week 5 Game Predictions

Thursday: Calgary (58%) at Edmonton (42%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at Saskatchewan (74%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (54%) at British Columbia (46%)

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 27, 2022

The Stanley Cup champions have been crowned! Congratulations to the Colorado Avalanche, who defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning last night by a score of 2-1, and won the Stanley Cup Final series 4 games to 2.

The game’s first goal was scored by Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos at 3:48 of the first period, and that was it for scoring in the first. But, 1:54 into the second, Nathan MacKinnon scored for Colorado to tie the game up, and 10 minutes later, Artturi Lehkonen scored to put Colorado ahead. There was no more scoring in the second period, or in the third, and Colorado won 2-1, defeating the two-time defending champions. Surprisingly, in last night’s game, there were only two penalties, one for each team! With the victory in Tampa Bay, Colorado finished the playoffs with an amazing 9-1 road record!

Next season’s regular season is scheduled to start on October 11th. Until then, the boys in the back room will be concentrating on following the CFL season!

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 1

Colorado wins Stanley Cup 4-2

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
June 24: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2
June 26: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 1

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado wins Stanley Cup 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

Colorado:
- defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
- defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
Tampa Bay:
- defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
- defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
- defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
June 24: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2
June 26: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 1

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 3

It’s only been Week 3, but it looks like the McDonald CFL Power Ratings are getting pretty accurate, working out the uncertainty that we introduce before the season starts. As we’ve said a number of times, after about 4 games, we feel that the ratings are quite accurate, but they are looking pretty good already.

Week 3 started off with Saskatchewan heading off to Montreal to face the Alouettes. This game was all Montreal, as they scored a touchdown on the opening kickoff return, and never looked back, as they came away with a 37-13 victory. The star of the game was the Montreal defense, as they had three interceptions, a touchdown and eight (eight!!!) sacks. Saskatchewan replaced their quarterback Cody Fajardo with his backup Mason Fine in the fourth quarter. Montreal kicker David Côté was 5-for-5 on his field goal attempts.

On Friday, Hamilton visited the top-ranked Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Winnipeg remain undefeated with a 3-0 record after winning the game 26-12. Bomber quarterback Zach Collaros completed 21 of his 32 passes for 302 yards, and receiver Nic Demski caught 6 of those passes for 96 yards before leaving the game early in the third quarter with an injury. The win was Winnipeg’s 11th straight home win.

There were two games on Saturday. In the first, it was the battle of Alberta, as the undefeated Calgary Stampeders hosted the winless Edmonton Elks. In a surprisingly close game, Calgary beat Edmonton 30-23. Bo Levi Mitchell, the Stampeder quarterback, led the offense passing 21-for-28 for 321 yards, and running back Ka’Deem Carey ran for 91 yards.

In the final game of the weekend, British Columbia were ungracious hosts to the Toronto Argonauts, thumping them 44-3. Quarterback Nathan Rourke had a historic game, passing for 436 yards, the most ever by a Canadian quarterback in a single game. He completed 39 of his 45 pass attempts to seven different receivers, with Dominque Rhymes catching eight of those for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Aside from the impressive passing display, running back David Mackie carried the ball 16 times for 90 yards.

Week 3 Results

Saskatchewan 13 at Montreal 37
Hamilton 12 at Winnipeg 26
Edmonton 23 at Calgary 30Toronto 3 at British Columbia 44

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Here’s the current McDonald CFL Power Ratings. Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team, but Calgary and Saskatchewan swapped places after Saskatchewan lost their first game of the year and Calgary remains undefeated. Toronto is the top-ranked team from the East, currently in fourth, and are the only Eastern team with a rating higher than the baseline of 1500. Ottawa remains at the bottom after being idle this week, but Edmonton is quickly racing for the bottom, just 3 rating points ahead of Ottawa.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1575 (▲8)	3-0, T-1st West
2 (▲1)	Calgary	1555 (▲7)	3-0, T-1st West
3 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1538 (▼13)	2-1, T-3rd West
4	Toronto	1507 (▼12)	1-1, T-1st East
5 (▲1)	British Columbia	1495 (▲12)	2-0, T-3rd West
6 (▲1)	Montreal	1491 (▲13)	1-2, T-1st East
7 (▼2)	Hamilton	1488 (▼8)	0-3, T-3rd East
8	Edmonton	1434 (▼7)	0-3, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1431	0-2, T-3rd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with a big jump of probability from 21% to 25% after this week’s win. Saskatchewan saw a big drop in their chances, dropping from 19% down to 11%. Calgary is the second favourite, at 20%. The Eastern teams aren’t looking very good, with Montreal the most likely to win the Grey Cup with a 12% chance, despite having a below average McDonald CFL Power Rating. In our simulations, Edmonton has an extremely slim chance of winning, less than 1%, which is unprecedented so early in the season.

Overall, there’s a 63% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, no change from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1575	25% (▲4)
2 (▲1)	Calgary	1555	20% (▲3)
3 (▲1)	Montreal	1491	12% (▲1)
4 (▼2)	Saskatchewan	1538	11% (▼8)
5 (▲1)	Toronto	1507	10% (▲1)
6 (▼1)	Hamilton	1488	9% (▼1)
7 (▲1)	British Columbia	1495	7% (▲2)
8 (▼1)	Ottawa	1431	6%
9	Edmonton	1434	<1% (▼1)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 3-0, T-1st in West	1575	94%	66%	39%	66%	39%	25%
Calgary 3-0, T-1st in West	1555	92%	61%	32%	61%	32%	20%
Montreal 1-2, T-1st in East	1491	70%	61%	29%	61%	31%	12%
Saskatchewan 2-1, T-3rd in West	1538	84%	40%	16%	40%	16%	11%
Toronto 1-1, T-1st in East	1507	76%	69%	41%	69%	28%	10%
Hamilton 0-3, T-3rd in East	1488	52%	42%	18%	42%	24%	9%
British Columbia 2-0, T-3rd in West	1495	74%	30%	12%	30%	12%	7%
Ottawa 0-2, T-3rd in East	1431	38%	29%	11%	29%	18%	6%
Edmonton 0-3, 5th in West	1434	19%	3%	1%	3%	1%	<1%

Week 4 Game Predictions

Thursday: British Columbia (52%) at Ottawa (48%)
Friday: Edmonton (35%) at Hamilton (65%)
Saturday: Montreal (36%) at Saskatchewan (64%)
Monday: Winnipeg (53%) at Toronto (47%)

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 25, 2022

Well, the season’s not over yet! Tampa Bay hasn’t given up yet on winning their third straight Stanley Cup! With Colorado leading the series 3-1, it looked bleak for the Lightning, with Game 5 being played in the Avalanche’s home building, but Tampa Bay came through when they needed to, winning last night’s game 3-2.

Tampa Bay never trailed in the game, taking the lead 1-0 after one period. Colorado tied it up quickly in the second, but Tampa Bay scored again to regain the lead, and that’s how the second period ended. In the third, the Avalanche tied it up yet again 2:31 into the 3rd, but Ondrej Palat scored for Tampa Bay with 6:22 to go in the game, and they held off the Avalanche to take the game 3-2.

Colorado now leads the series 3-2, with Game 6 to be played Sunday night in Tampa Bay. The series has been close, with each team having one blowout victory, two games going to overtime, and last night’s game being decided by a single goal in regulation time. We are still giving Colorado the edge in the series, with Game 6 being pretty much a toss-up (we’re giving Colorado a 51% chance of winning), but we’ve calculated Colorado still has an 80.4% chance of winning the series, although that is down from 93.2% before last night’s game.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2

Colorado leads series 3-2
Colorado now has a 80.4% chance of winning the series, down from 93.2%

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
June 24: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2
June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 80.4% chance of winning (▼12.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼65.0)
- In 6 games: 51.0% (▲33.1)
- In 7 games: 29.4% (▲19.1)
Tampa Bay has a 19.6% chance of winning (▲12.8)
- In 7 games: 19.6% (▲12.8)
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Sunday’s Game

Colorado at Tampa Bay

Colorado leads series 3-2
Colorado has a 80.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 80.4%, Tampa Bay 19.6%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

Colorado:
- defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
- defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
Tampa Bay:
- defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
- defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
- defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
June 24: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2
June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 80.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 51.0%
- In 7 games: 29.4%
Tampa Bay has a 19.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 19.6%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 23, 2022

As the great Canadian troubadour, Stompin’ Tom Connors, sang, “the best game you can name is the good old hockey game.” And there’s no hockey better than playoff hockey. And what can be better than playoff hockey? Playoff hockey in overtime!

Last night’s game saw Colorado play in Tampa Bay, with a 2-1 series lead. A win by Colorado would see them take a 3-1 lead back home, forcing Tampa Bay to win all 3 of the final 3 games, with two of those games being on the road. However, a Tampa Bay win would even the series at 2, but again, Colorado would have an edge, as the 5th and 7th games are scheduled to be played in Colorado.

Tampa Bay started the game strong, and took a 1-0 lead only 36 seconds into the game when Anthony Cirelli scored. They continued to dominate the game, outshooting Colorado 17-4 in the first period, but couldn’t get another shot past goalie Darcy Kuemper. 5 minutes into the second period, Nathan MacKinnon scored on a power play goal to even the score, but Tampa Bay retook the lead 5 minutes after that on Victor Hedman’s goal, and the second period ended with a 2-1 score in Tampa Bay’s favour. Colorado tied it back up 3 minutes into the third when Andrew Cogliano tickled the twine, and that was all the scoring in regulation time. In an exciting back-and-forth overtime period, Nazem Kadri potted the winner at 12:02 to give Colorado the victory and a 3-1 series lead.

With 2 of the next 3 games scheduled to be played in Colorado, and a big 3-1 series lead, we’ve calculated that Colorado now has a 93.2% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. We’ve also calculated that they’ve got a 65.0% chance of winning it in 5 games. Sadly, the end of the hockey season is in sight.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)

Colorado leads series 3-1
Colorado now has a 93.2% chance of winning the series, up from 77.3%

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 93.2% chance of winning (▲15.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 65.0% (▲31.2)
- In 6 games: 17.9% (▼6.3)
- In 7 games: 10.3% (▼8.9)
Tampa Bay has a 6.8% chance of winning (▼15.9)
- In 7 games: 6.8% (▼6.0)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼9.9)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Friday’s Game

Tampa Bay at Colorado

Colorado leads series 3-1
Colorado has a 93.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 93.2%, Tampa Bay 6.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

Colorado:
- defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
- defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
Tampa Bay:
- defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
- defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
- defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 93.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 65.0%
- In 6 games: 17.9%
- In 7 games: 10.3%
Tampa Bay has a 6.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.8%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 21, 2022

Well, that was a bit of a surprise! After Colorado trounced Tampa Bay 7-0 in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals, the Lightning came back and did a little thumping of their own, defeating the Avalanche 6-2 to narrow Colorado’s series lead to 2 games to 1.

After falling behind 1-0 in the first period, Tampa Bay came back to score two goals of their own, and the period ended with a 2-1 Lightning lead. Tampa Bay scored again early in the second period, and after Colorado scored to make it a 3-2 Lightning lead. And then the fireworks began, with the Lightning scoring three more times in the period to take a 6-2 lead after two frames. After a scoreless third period, the game ended that way, and Tampa Bay is back in the series!

Colorado still leads the series 2-1, and we’ve calculated that they’ve got a 77.3% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Tampa Bay will hope to use home advantage again in Game 4 on Wednesday night, while Colorado would love to go home for Game 5 needing just a single win to take the Cup. The next game should be quite interesting!

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6

Colorado leads series 2-1
Colorado now has a 77.3% chance of winning the series, down from 87.8%

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 77.3% chance of winning (▼10.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼30.2)
- In 5 games: 33.8% (▲2.9)
- In 6 games: 24.2% (▲8.8)
- In 7 games: 19.2% (▲7.9)
Tampa Bay has a 22.7% chance of winning (▲10.5)
- In 7 games: 12.8% (▲5.2)
- In 6 games: 9.9% (▲5.3)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Wednesday’s Game

Colorado at Tampa Bay

Colorado leads series 2-1
Colorado has a 77.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 77.3%, Tampa Bay 22.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

Colorado:
- defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
- defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
Tampa Bay:
- defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
- defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
- defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 77.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 33.8%
- In 6 games: 24.2%
- In 7 games: 19.2%
Tampa Bay has a 22.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.8%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 2

Another exciting week in the CFL, with 3 of the games being decided by a difference of one touchdown or less!

In the Thursday Night Football game, Toronto squeaked out a victory over Montreal, 20-19. It was Toronto’s first game of the year, as they had a bye in Week 1. Trailing 20-12 halfway through the 4th quarter, Montreal looked determined as they scored a touchdown to narrow the score, but failed on their two-point convert attempt which would have tied the game. Regaining the ball with 2:44 left, Montreal started their final march from their own 34 yard line, and after a drive that included successful 3rd-and-long and 2nd-and-long conversions, they held the ball at the Toronto 13 yard line with 18 seconds left. Als placekicker David Cote, who was so far 4-for-4 on field goal attempts, lined up for a 21-yard field goal that would give Montreal the lead. But, he missed the chip shot, Montreal had to settle for a rouge (often the most exciting play in Canadian football, but sadly not in this case), and Toronto ran out the clock for the 20-19 victory.

Friday night’s game saw two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg play bottom-ranked Ottawa in Canada’s capital. In a surprisingly close game, Winnipeg won 19-12. RedBlack quarterback Jeremiah Masoli completed 27 of his 38 passes for 331 yards, but couldn’t score a touchdown. Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros had a pedestrian performance, going 15 for 22 for 228 yards, but did throw a pair of touchdowns in the victory.

In an exciting game to start Saturday’s doubleheader, Calgary trailed most of the game but came back in the end, defeating Hamilton 33-30 in overtime. Trailing 24-3 at the half, Calgary scored 3 second-half touchdowns and two field goals, including a tying 39-yarder as time ran out to tie the game. On the first possession of the overtime, Calgary had to settle for a field goal, but when Hamilton had the ball, they were picked off to seal the thrilling victory for the Stampeders. For the winners, quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell completed 28 of his 42 passes for 313 and 2 touchdowns, and was helped by Rene Paredes’ four field goals. On the losing side, Hamilton’s QB Dane Evans went 36 for 51 for 425 yards and three touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough.

In Saturday’s nightcap, Saskatchewan travelled to Edmonton to face the lowly Elks. In what seems to be a trend for the Riders, they had trouble getting the ball into the endzone, but came through in the end for a 26-16 victory. The Rider defense looked strong, but their offense needs to start scoring more touchdowns! The offensive star of the game was Saskatchewan running back Jamal Morrow, who rushed for 126 yards and a touchdown. QB Cody Fajardo went 20 for 26 for 247 yards. For the Elks, Nick Arbuckle passed for 315 yards and a touchdown, but threw two interceptions, and receiver Kenny Lawler pulled in 12 passes for 149 yards.

Week 2 Results

Montreal 19 at Toronto 20
Winnipeg 19 at Ottawa 12
Calgary 33 at Hamilton 30 (OT)
Saskatchewan 26 at Edmonton 16

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Here’s the current McDonald CFL Power Ratings. The uncertainty that we’ve added at the beginning of the season is surprisingly being worked out faster than expected, as our predictions have gone 7 for 8 in the first two weeks, with the only one we missed being this week’s Calgary / Hamilton game that Calgary won in overtime, whereas we had given Hamilton a 53% chance of winning the game, Week 2’s closest game according to our crack statisticians and prognosticators.

Two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg continues to be the top-ranked team. Saskatchewan shows up number 2 in our rankings, just slightly ahead of Calgary. Toronto is the top-ranked team in the East, as they are the only Eastern team with a victory so far this year! British Columbia moved past Montreal in the standings, by virtue of not playing while the Alouettes did and lost. Edmonton and Ottawa are the lowest-ranked teams.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1567 (▲10)	2-0, T-1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1551 (▲11)	2-0, T-1st West
3	Calgary	1548 (▲13)	2-0, T-1st West
4	Toronto	1519 (▲10)	1-0, 1st East
5 (▼1)	Hamilton	1496 (▼13)	0-2, T-2nd East
6 (▲1)	British Columbia	1483	1-0, 4th West
7 (▼1)	Montreal	1478 (▼10)	0-2, T-2nd East
8	Edmonton	1441 (▼11)	0-2, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1431 (▼10)	0-2, T-2nd East

Grey Cup Predictions

There’s been only slight movement in our Grey Cup predictions. Winnipeg is still the likeliest team to win it all, now at 21% probability, followed closely by Saskatchewan (19%) and Calgary (17%). Despite being the third-ranked team in the East, Montreal is our top pick for an Eastern team to win the Grey Cup, at 11%. Overall, there’s a 63% chance of a Western team winning, up from 61% last week.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1567	21% (▲1)
2	Saskatchewan	1551	19% (▲2)
3	Calgary	1548	17% (▲2)
4 (▲1)	Montreal	1478	11% (▲1)
5 (▼1)	Hamilton	1496	10% (▼1)
6 (▼1)	Toronto	1519	9% (▼1)
7	Ottawa	1431	6% (▼1)
8 (▼1)	British Columbia	1483	5% (▼2)
9	Edmonton	1441	1% (▼1)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 2-0, T-1st in West	1567	91%	60%	34%	60%	34%	21%
Saskatchewan 2-0, T-1st in West	1551	89%	56%	28%	56%	28%	19%
Calgary 2-0, T-1st in West	1548	88%	55%	28%	55%	28%	17%
Montreal 0-2, T-2nd in East	1478	58%	46%	17%	46%	29%	11%
Hamilton 0-2, T-2nd in East	1496	60%	49%	22%	49%	27%	10%
Toronto 1-0, 1st in East	1519	83%	76%	51%	76%	25%	9%
Ottawa 0-2, T-2nd in East	1431	39%	29%	10%	29%	19%	6%
British Columbia 1-0, 4th in West	1483	63%	23%	9%	23%	9%	5%
Edmonton 0-2, 5th in West	1441	27%	6%	2%	6%	2%	1%

Week 3 Game Predictions

Thursday: Saskatchewan (53%) at Montreal (47%)
Friday: Hamilton (33%) at Winnipeg (67%)
Saturday: Edmonton (29%) at Calgary (71%)
Saturday: Toronto (48%) at British Columbia (52%)

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 19, 2022

Last night, Colorado showed why they are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, as they handed Tampa Bay a 7-0 drubbing in the second game of the Stanley Cup Finals. The Avalanche scored early, taking a 1-0 lead only 2:54 into the game, and they kept the pressure on, outshooting the Lightning 15-1 in the first 10 minutes of the game. They led 3-0 after the first, and scored twice in both the 2nd and 3rd period. Valeri Nichushkin and Cale Makar both scored twice for Colorado, and Mikko Rantanen had three assists. Darcy Kuemper only needed to stop 16 shots to get the shutout, as Colorado outshot Tampa Bay 30-16, although I guess both teams got 15 shots in the last 50 minutes of the game!

Colorado now leads the series 2-0. We’ve calculated that they now have an 87.8% chance of winning the series, including a 30.2% chance of a sweep. Games 3 and 4 go in Tampa Bay on Monday and Wednesday nights.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7

Colorado leads series 2-0
Colorado now has a 87.8% chance of winning the series, up from 76.7%

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning (▲11.1)
- In 4 games: 30.2% (▲11.2)
- In 5 games: 30.9% (▲5.1)
- In 6 games: 15.4% (▼1.6)
- In 7 games: 11.3% (▼3.5)
Tampa Bay has a 12.2% chance of winning (▼11.1)
- In 7 games: 7.6% (▼2.1)
- In 6 games: 4.6% (▼4.8)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼4.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Monday’s Games

Colorado at Tampa Bay

Colorado leads series 2-0
Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 87.8%, Tampa Bay 12.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

Colorado:
- defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
- defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
Tampa Bay:
- defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
- defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
- defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 30.2%
- In 5 games: 30.9%
- In 6 games: 15.4%
- In 7 games: 11.3%
Tampa Bay has a 12.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.6%
- In 6 games: 4.6%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 16, 2022

After what seems like forever, the Stanley Cup Finals have finally started! And the first game was worth the wait!!!

Tampa Bay travelled to Colorado to open the series. Tampa Bay is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion, while Colorado has been the top-ranked team, and the favourite to win the Stanley Cup, in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings for most of the season. But, despite being ranked #1 AND playing at home, Colorado was put to the test by the Lightning. The Avalanche held a 3-1 lead after the first period, and it looked like they might be walking away with the game, but Tampa Bay came back with two goals in the second to tie it up at 3 heading into the third. After neither team scored in the third period, the game headed to overtime, where Andre Burakovsky scored 1:23 into the extra frame to give the Avalanche the hard-fought 4-3 victory.

With the victory, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team has now calculated that the Avalanche have a 76.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 63.7% before the series started. Game 2 goes Saturday night in Colorado.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)

Colorado leads series 1-0
Colorado now has a 76.7% chance of winning the series, up from 63.7%

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay at Colorado
June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning (▲13.0)
- In 4 games: 19.0% (▲7.2)
- In 5 games: 25.8% (▲6.0)
- In 6 games: 17.0% (▲1.0)
- In 7 games: 14.8% (▼1.3)
Tampa Bay has a 23.3% chance of winning (▼13.0)
- In 7 games: 9.7% (▼0.9)
- In 6 games: 9.4% (▼3.3)
- In 5 games: 4.1% (▼4.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.9)

Saturday’s Game

Tampa Bay at Colorado

Colorado leads series 1-0
Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 76.7%, Tampa Bay 23.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

Colorado:
- defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
- defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
Tampa Bay:
- defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
- defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
- defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
June 18: Tampa Bay at Colorado
June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 19.0%
- In 5 games: 25.8%
- In 6 games: 17.0%
- In 7 games: 14.8%
Tampa Bay has a 23.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.7%
- In 6 games: 9.4%
- In 5 games: 4.1%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.