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It was another interesting week in the NHL, although there haven’t been many changes to the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  Tampa Bay remains the top team, even though they are 2nd in the Central Division.  Carolina, 1st in that division, are 6th in our rankings.  Boston has dropped out of the top 5, moving down to 7th, while Washington has moved back in, showing up in the 3rd spot.

It looked to be an easy week for Tampa Bay, with two games against bottom-ranked Detroit and one against Nashville, but it didn’t go so well for them.  They did beat Nashville, but they lost once to Detroit and won the other game in overtime.  They saw their rating drop 9 points, but they are still the top-ranked team, the favourite to win their division (52% vs. Carolina’s 28%), the President’s Trophy (35% vs. Carolina’s 17%), and the most-likely team to make the playoffs (>99% chance!).

The Islanders moved into 2nd spot in our rankings, going 4-0-0 this week.  They beat New Jersey twice in regulation time and once in a shootout, and also beat Boston in a shootout.  Washington moved into 3rd, going 3-0-0, with two regulation wins over Philadelphia and an overtime win against New Jersey.  Vegas dropped down two spots to 4th, losing twice to Minnesota but beating St. Louis twice, once in overtime.  Rounding out the top 5 is Colorado, who beat Los Angeles twice but split a pair with Arizona, with their win coming in overtime.

The biggest mover this week was Minnesota, who gained 27 rating points and moved up 5 spots in our rankings to 8th with a perfect 4-0-0 record this week, with two wins against Vegas and two against Arizona.  On the downside, Toronto dropped 28 points, losing to 30th-ranked Ottawa and twice to Winnipeg, although they did manage an OT win in Winnipeg.  In fact, Toronto is no longer the top-rated Canadian team, with Edmonton moving into that spot after a 3-1-0 week, beating Ottawa 3 times but losing to Vancouver.  Winnipeg is close behind, just one rating point back of Toronto, after going 2-0-1 in their three games against the Leafs.  Toronto is still the favourite to win the Northern Division, just barely ahead of the Jets with a 38% chance vs. 37% chance for Winnipeg.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1584, ▼9)

Record: 19-5-2, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 35% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 9: Won in OT 4-3 @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1408)
• March 11: Lost 6-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1408)
• March 13: Won 6-3 vs. Nashville Predators (27th, 1451)

Next week:

• March 15: vs. Nashville Predators (27th, 1451)
• March 16: @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1487)
• March 18: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1479)
• March 20: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1479)
• March 21: vs. Florida Panthers (8th, 1543)

2. New York Islanders ▲1 (1563, ▲9)

Record: 19-6-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 94% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 9: Won in SO 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1544)
• March 11: Won 5-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
• March 13: Won 3-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
• March 14: Won in SO 3-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)

Next week:

• March 16: @ Washington Capitals (3rd, 1556)
• March 18: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)
• March 20: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)

3. Washington Capitals ▲4 (1556, ▲13)

Record: 17-6-4, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▲11)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 9: Won in OT 5-4 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
• March 11: Won 5-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)
• March 13: Won 5-4 @ Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)

Next week:

• March 15: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1415)
• March 16: vs. New York Islanders (2nd, 1563)
• March 19: vs. New York Rangers (18th, 1492)
• March 20: vs. New York Rangers (18th, 1492)

4. Vegas Golden Knights ▼2 (1549, ▼6)

Record: 18-6-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 8: Lost 2-0 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• March 10: Lost 4-3 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• March 12: Won in OT 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (15th, 1512)
• March 13: Won 5-1 @ St. Louis Blues (15th, 1512)

Next week:

• March 15: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1468)
• March 17: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1468)
• March 19: @ Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)
• March 21: @ Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)

5. Colorado Avalanche (1548)

Record: 16-8-2, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 8: Lost 3-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 10: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 12: Won 2-0 vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)
• March 14: Won 4-1 vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)

Next week:

• March 16: vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1422)
• March 18: vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• March 20: vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           1584 (▼9)
 2       New York Islanders (▲1)       1563 (▲9)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲4)      1556 (▲13)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     1549 (▼6)
 5       Colorado Avalanche            1548
 6       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1547 (▲8)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1544 (▼4)
 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1543 (▲14)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲5)           1543 (▲27)
10       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1528 (▲5)
11       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼8)      1526 (▼28)
12       Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1525 (▲19)
13       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1523 (▲19)
14       Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      1518 (▼19)
15       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          1512 (▼9)
16       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1500 (▼6)
17       Calgary Flames (▲6)           1495 (▲14)
18       New York Rangers (▼1)         1492 (▼1)
19       Arizona Coyotes               1490
20       Dallas Stars                  1487 (▼1)
21       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1486 (▼5)
22       Chicago Blackhawks            1479 (▼3)
23       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1478 (▼9)
24       Vancouver Canucks             1475
25       San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1468 (▲17)
26       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1456 (▼7)
27       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1451 (▼6)
28       Anaheim Ducks                 1422 (▼23)
29       Buffalo Sabres                1415 (▼10)
30       Ottawa Senators               1409 (▼4)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1408 (▲8)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           52% (▼15)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           28% (▲8)
 3       Florida Panthers              19% (▲7)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%

East Division

 1       New York Islanders            41% (▲10)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      30% (▲8)
 3       Boston Bruins (▼1)            14% (▼12)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      11% (▲4)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3% (▼10)
 6 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 6 (tie) New York Rangers              <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          48% (▼10)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           25% (▲15)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       20% (▲1)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          4% (▼6)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           38% (▼29)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 37% (▲22)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          14% (▲6)
 4       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       8% (▼2)
 5       Calgary Flames                3% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           >99% (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           99% (▲3)
 3       Florida Panthers              98% (▲7)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            54% (▼2)
 5       Dallas Stars                  30% (▲2)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         14% (▼5)
 7       Nashville Predators           6% (▼4)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             1% (▲1)

East Division

 1       New York Islanders            94% (▲8)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      91% (▲11)
 3       Boston Bruins (▼1)            79% (▼4)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      78% (▲21)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      44% (▼23)
 6       New York Rangers              12% (▼7)
 7       New Jersey Devils             2% (▼5)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          96%
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           90% (▲20)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       88% (▲5)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          56% (▼14)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             30% (▼10)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               20% (▼8)
 7       San Jose Sharks               19% (▲10)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 1% (▼3)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           95% (▼4)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 94% (▲7)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               84% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            69% (▼11)
 5       Calgary Flames                46% (▲11)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             12% (▼4)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼2)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           35% (▼6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      17% (▲7)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     11% (▼4)
 4       Florida Panthers (▲1)         10% (▲5)
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       8% (▲4)
 6       Washington Capitals (▲2)      5% (▲3)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           3% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            2% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            2%
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5)      2% (▼11)
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            2% (▲1)
12       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           13% (▼1)
 2       New York Islanders (▲2)       9% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      7% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     7% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       6%
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7)           6% (▲3)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼4)            5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7)      5% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            5% (▲2)
13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6)      2% (▼3)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1%
18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1%
18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             1%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1%
18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7)          1% (▲1)
24 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
24 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼7)    <1% (▼1)
24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
24 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%
24 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
24 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼7)        <1% (▼1)

 

Although we are not yet at the mid-point of the NHL schedule, some of the playoff teams are already being sorted out, according to our ratings.  There are still lots of changes in the ratings and rankings, but trends are starting to become evident.

Tampa Bay continues to be the top-ranked team, and we predict that they have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 41% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 14% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Although they went 3-0-1 this week, three of those games, including their shootout loss, were against the 22nd-ranked Blackhawks.  They have a pretty easy week coming up, too, with two games against the last-ranked Red Wings and one against the 26th-ranked Predators.

Vegas moved into the top 5, going 4-0-0 this week.  They are favourites to win their division, as we’re giving them a 58% chance of doing that.  The Islanders also went 4-0-0, and moved into the top 5 for the first time this year.  Toronto remains in the top 5, but dropped from 2nd in our rankings to 3rd.  They started the week strong with two convincing wins against the Oilers, but then lost twice in Vancouver.  Boston and Colorado round out the top 5, tied for 5th.  Boston went 1-1-1, and Colorado went 2-1-1.

As I said earlier, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus already.  In the Central Division, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Florida all have a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs.  The fourth playoff spot remains a toss-up, with Chicago at 56%, Dallas at 28%, and Columbus at 19% all having reasonable chances.  We give Detroit less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.

In the East Division, the Islanders (86%), Bruins (83%), and Capitals (80%) are favourites to make the playoffs.  The last playoff spot is close, with the Flyers (67%) and Penguins (57%) being the strongest contenders.  The Rangers can’t be counted out at 19%.

In the West Division, Vegas should make the playoffs — we’re giving them a 96% chance.  Colorado is also likely, at 83%.  Minnesota and St. Louis both have a 70% chance, followed by LA at 40% and Arizona at 28%.

In the North Division, Toronto should be a shoe-in at 99%.  Winnipeg (87%), Edmonton (83%), and Montreal (80%) are the next most likely teams, but being in the first half of the season, things can still change quite a bit.  Calgary still has a 35% chance, and even Vancouver has a shot at 16%, and with their two wins this week against Toronto, they show they could surprise.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1593, ▲11)

Record: 17-4-2, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 41% (▲13)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• March 2: Won 2-0 @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1488)
• March 4: Won in OT 3-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)
• March 5: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)
• March 7: Won 6-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)

Next week:

• March 9: @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1400)
• March 11: @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1400)
• March 13: vs. Nashville Predators (26th, 1457)

2. Vegas Golden Knights ▲4 (1555, ▲10)

Record: 16-4-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 1: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 3: Won 5-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 5: Won in OT 5-4 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 6: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)

Next week:

• March 8: @ Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 10: @ Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 12: @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1521)
• March 13: @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1521)

3 (tie). New York Islanders ▲5 (1554, ▲20)

Record: 15-6-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 86% (▲15)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 2: Won 2-1 @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
• March 4: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)
• March 6: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)
• March 7: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)

Next week:

• March 9: vs. Boston Bruins (5th, 1548)
• March 11: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
• March 13: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
• March 14: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)

3 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1554, ▼2)

Record: 18-6-2, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 1: Won 3-0 @ Edmonton Oilers (11th, 1523)
• March 3: Won 6-1 @ Edmonton Oilers (11th, 1523)
• March 4: Lost 3-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (24th, 1475)
• March 6: Lost 4-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (24th, 1475)

Next week:

• March 9: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
• March 11: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
• March 13: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
• March 14: @ Ottawa Senators (30th, 1413)

5 (tie). Boston Bruins (1548, ▼5)

Record: 13-6-3, 3rd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 83% (▼4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-1

• March 3: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1543)
• March 5: Won 5-1 vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1543)
• March 7: Lost 1-0 vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)

Next week:

• March 9: @ New York Islanders (3rd, 1554)
• March 11: vs. New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
• March 13: vs. New York Rangers (17th, 1493)

5 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▼3 (1548, ▼8)

Record: 13-7-2, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 83% (▼3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 1: Lost 6-2 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 3: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 5: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1445)
• March 6: Lost in OT 5-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1445)

Next week:

• March 8: vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 10: vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 12: vs. Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1491)
• March 14: vs. Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1491)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           1593 (▲11)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     1555 (▲10)
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲5)       1554 (▲20)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1554 (▼2)
 5 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1548 (▼5)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼3)       1548 (▼8)
 7       Washington Capitals           1543 (▲4)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)      1539 (▲19)
 9       Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      1537 (▼18)
10       Florida Panthers              1529 (▲6)
11       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1523 (▼9)
12       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1521 (▲14)
13       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1516 (▼4)
14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       1506 (▲11)
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1506 (▼10)
16       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1504 (▲16)
17       New York Rangers (▲6)         1493 (▲15)
18       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1491 (▼9)
19       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1490 (▲9)
20       Dallas Stars (▼4)             1488 (▼9)
21       Columbus Blue Jackets         1487 (▲6)
22       Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1482 (▼4)
23       Calgary Flames (▼5)           1481 (▼11)
24       Vancouver Canucks (▲3)        1475 (▲22)
25       New Jersey Devils             1463 (▼12)
26       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1457 (▼20)
27       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1451 (▼3)
28       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1445 (▼8)
29       Buffalo Sabres                1425 (▼19)
30       Ottawa Senators               1413
31       Detroit Red Wings             1400 (▼9)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           67% (▲6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      20% (▲6)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         12% (▼6)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            1% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       New York Islanders (▲3)       31% (▲18)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            26% (▼6)
 3       Washington Capitals           22% (▲3)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      13% (▼17)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           7% (▲3)
 6       New York Rangers              1%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          58% (▲20)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            19% (▼10)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                10% (▼10)
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          10% (▲4)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             2% (▼3)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               1%
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           67% (▲5)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 15% (▼3)
 3       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       10% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼5)
 5       Calgary Flames                1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           99% (▲2)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      96% (▲13)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         91% (▲5)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            56% (▲1)
 5       Dallas Stars                  28% (▼11)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    19% (▲3)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      10% (▼13)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       New York Islanders (▲3)       86% (▲15)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            83% (▼4)
 3       Washington Capitals           80% (▲3)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      67% (▼18)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           57% (▲14)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         19% (▲5)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        7% (▼12)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                1% (▼4)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          96% (▲8)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            83% (▼3)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                70% (▼7)
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          70% (▲19)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             40% (▼10)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               28% (▲4)
 7       San Jose Sharks               9% (▼6)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 4% (▼4)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           99% (▲1)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 87%
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          83% (▼4)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            80% (▲13)
 5       Calgary Flames                35% (▼15)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             16% (▲9)
 7       Ottawa Senators               2% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           41% (▲13)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     15% (▲7)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      13% (▼8)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      10% (▲6)
 5       Florida Panthers (▲1)         5%
 6       New York Islanders (▲6)       4% (▲2)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼3)            3% (▼4)
 8 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       2% (▼3)
 8 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      2% (▼1)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1% (▼2)
10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲4)       1%
10 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6)      1% (▼6)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          1% (▲1)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     8% (▲1)
 4       New York Islanders (▲6)       7% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲5)      6% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      6% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         5%
 9 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6)      5% (▼2)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼4)          4% (▼1)
11 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          4% (▲1)
13 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            3% (▼1)
16       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      2% (▲1)
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          1%
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3)    1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼2)        1% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲9)        1% (▲1)
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
25 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼5)      <1% (▼1)
25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼5)        <1% (▼1)
25 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%

 

After a bad week last week, Tampa Bay turned things around and moved back to the top of our ratings.  After going 0-2-0 and dropping down to fourth in the rankings last week, they won all 4 of their games this week and jumped 25 rating points.  Meanwhile, Boston, last week’s number one, went 1-2-0 and dropped down to fifth in the rankings, although they are just 3 rating points out of 2nd.  Colorado and Toronto both remained tied for second in the rankings, both having middling weeks.  Colorado went 2-2-0, and Toronto were 2-1-0, with one of their wins being in overtime.  Philadelphia had a good week, moving back into the top 5 with a 3-0-0 record, although their wins came against the Rangers (ranked 23rd) and two against the Sabres (29th).

Tampa Bay are the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, grabbing the prize in 12% of our simulations.  Toronto, last week’s favourite, have now dropped to 2nd favourite, winning in 9% of the simulations.  Toronto is the most likely to make the playoffs (98%), with Tampa Bay close behind at 97%.  Currently, they are the only two teams to have a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs, but I’m sure that will change as the season moves along.

Big movers in the ratings this week include Tampa Bay (+25 points), Minnesota (+22), and Washington (+20).  Minnesota went 4-0-0, with one of their wins in OT.  The big win for them was a 6-2 road victory over 2nd ranked Colorado.  They saw their chances of making the playoffs take a big jump, up to 77% (last week it was 51%).  Washington went 3-0-1, but their games were against 19th-ranked Pittsburgh and 25th ranked New Jersey.  They’ll have a big test this week, facing the Bruins twice and the Flyers once.

On the downside, Columbus and New Jersey both dropped 24 points, and Carolina lost 19 points.  Columbus went 0-3-1, and saw their playoff chances drop from 40% to 16%.  New Jersey went 1-3-0, with their only win coming in overtime against 29th ranked Buffalo, although two of their losses were to 7th ranked Washington.  Carolina, ranked number 5 last week, went 1-3-0, although their three losses were to top-ranked Tampa Bay.  Our simulations show that they have a 4% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, down from 13% last week!

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲3 (1582, ▲25)

Record: 14-4-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 97% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 28% (▲17)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲4)

Last week: 4-0-0

• February 22: Won 4-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
• February 24: Won 3-0 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
• February 25: Won 3-1 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
• February 27: Won 5-0 vs. Dallas Stars (16th, 1497)

Next week:

• March 2: @ Dallas Stars (16th, 1497)
• March 4: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)
• March 5: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)
• March 7: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)

2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche (1556, ▼4)

Record: 11-6-1, 4th in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 86% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 2-2-0

• February 22: Lost 3-0 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1545)
• February 24: Lost 6-2 vs. Minnesota Wild (11th, 1520)
• February 26: Won 3-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (21th, 1481)
• February 27: Won 6-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (21th, 1481)

Next week:

• March 1: @ San Jose Sharks (26th, 1454)
• March 3: @ San Jose Sharks (26th, 1454)
• March 5: vs. Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1453)
• March 6: vs. Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1453)

2 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs (1556, ▼4)

Record: 16-4-2, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 22: Lost 3-0 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
• February 24: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
• February 27: Won 4-0 @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)

Next week:

• March 1: @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)
• March 3: @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)
• March 4: @ Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1453)
• March 6: @ Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1453)

4. Philadelphia Flyers ▲2 (1555, ▲18)

Record: 11-4-3, 4th in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 85% (▲14)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 24: Won 4-3 vs. New York Rangers (23th, 1478)
• February 27: Won 3-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1444)
• February 28: Won 3-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1444)

Next week:

• March 2: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
• March 4: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
• March 6: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
• March 7: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)

5. Boston Bruins ▼4 (1553, ▼8)

Record: 12-5-2, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▼4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▼7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• February 25: Lost 7-2 @ New York Islanders (8th, 1534)
• February 26: Lost 6-2 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1478)
• February 28: Won 4-1 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1478)

Next week:

• March 3: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)
• March 5: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)
• March 7: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1475)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      1582 (▲25)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            1556 (▼4)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           1556 (▼4)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1555 (▲18)
 5       Boston Bruins (▼4)            1553 (▼8)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights          1545 (▲8)
 7       Washington Capitals (▲3)      1539 (▲20)
 8       New York Islanders (▲3)       1534 (▲17)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1532 (▲6)
10       Florida Panthers (▼1)         1523 (▲2)
11 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼6)      1520 (▼19)
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7)           1520 (▲22)
13       Winnipeg Jets                 1516 (▲5)
14       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          1507 (▼10)
15       Los Angeles Kings (▲6)        1500 (▲13)
16       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1497 (▼8)
17       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1495 (▼6)
18       Calgary Flames (▲5)           1492 (▲11)
19       Pittsburgh Penguins           1488 (▼9)
20       Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1486 (▲5)
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1481 (▼10)
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼7)    1481 (▼24)
23       New York Rangers (▼1)         1478 (▼5)
24       Nashville Predators (▲3)      1477 (▲13)
25       New Jersey Devils (▼8)        1475 (▼24)
26       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1454 (▼15)
27 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1453 (▼3)
27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1453 (▼14)
29       Buffalo Sabres                1444 (▼8)
30       Ottawa Senators               1413 (▲2)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1409 (▲6)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      61% (▲30)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         18% (▼3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼2)      14% (▼21)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       4% (▲1)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             2% (▼4)
 6       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    <1% (▼3)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 32% (▼18)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           30% (▲13)
 3       Washington Capitals           19% (▲9)
 4       New York Islanders            13% (▲5)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▼2)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1% (▼4)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     38% (▲9)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       29% (▼10)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           20% (▲12)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          6% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             5% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1% (▼2)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1% (▼2)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           62% (▼1)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 18% (▲5)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               13% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            5% (▼4)
 5       Calgary Flames                2%
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      97% (▲10)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         86% (▲7)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼2)      83% (▼6)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       55% (▲14)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             39% (▼10)
 6       Nashville Predators (▲1)      23% (▲10)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    16% (▼24)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 87% (▼4)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           85% (▲14)
 3       Washington Capitals           77% (▲18)
 4       New York Islanders            71% (▲16)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           43% (▼5)
 6       New Jersey Devils             19% (▼23)
 7       New York Rangers              14% (▼8)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                5% (▼7)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     88% (▲7)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       86% (▼1)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           77% (▲26)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          51% (▼14)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             50% (▲10)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               24% (▼10)
 7       San Jose Sharks               15% (▼14)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 8% (▼4)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           98%
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               87% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            87% (▲6)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            67% (▼8)
 5       Calgary Flames                50% (▲8)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             7% (▼11)
 7       Ottawa Senators               3%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      28% (▲17)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      21% (▼2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     8% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            7% (▼7)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      7% (▲4)
 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       5% (▼4)
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              5% (▼2)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▼5)      4% (▼9)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           3% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      3% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          2%
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2% (▲1)
14       Montreal Canadiens (▼5)       1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      12% (▲4)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      9% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            7% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       7% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      7% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     7% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               5%
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼5)      4% (▼2)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6)           4% (▲2)
10 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       4% (▲1)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            4%
14       St. Louis Blues (▼5)          3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲7)           2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲7)       2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        2%
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       2% (▼1)
20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1% (▼1)
20 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         1%
20 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1%
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼4)        1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4)      1% (▼1)
26 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
26 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
26 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
26 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
26 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼4)          <1% (▼1)
26 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        <1% (▼1)

 

It was a week of surprises!  Boston moved back to the top of the rankings, but Tampa Bay dropped sharply this week, moving down 3 spots to 4th, and losing 14 rating points.  They are also no longer favoured to win their division, with Carolina, who moved into 5th place overall in the rankings, who win the Central Division in 35% of our simulations, compared to 31% for Tampa Bay.  Toronto is now favoured to win the Stanley Cup, with a 10% probability of that happening!  They are also now expected to win the President’s Trophy, which they do in 23% of our simulations.

The top 3 movers this week were Carolina, San Jose, and Los Angeles.  Carolina went 3-0-1, including a win over Tampa Bay, and moved up 19 rating points and 3 positions in our rankings.  They have three games scheduled against the Lightning this week, so we’ll see if they can keep things up.  San Jose went 2-0-1, beating Anaheim and St. Louis, and losing to the Blues in OT, also moving them up 19 rating points.  With that performance, their chances of making the playoffs jumped from 17% to 29%, still a longshot, but a little more likely now.  Los Angeles went 3-0-0, beating Arizona twice and Minnesota once.  That moved them up 17 rating points, and increased their chances of making the playoffs from 22% to 40%.

On the down side, Calgary and Anaheim both dropped 23 points, and St. Louis dropped 20.  The Flames went 1-3-0, with their only win coming in overtime against Vancouver.  Next week, they have two games with the Leafs, so that will be difficult.  Their chances of making the playoffs dropped from 64% to 42%.  The Ducks went 0-3-0, losing to San Jose once and Minnesota twice.  Their chances of making the playoffs dropped from 32% down to 12%.  St. Louis went 1-2-0, with their only win coming against San Jose in overtime.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins ▲1 (1561, ▼4)

Record: 11-3-2, 1st in East Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 1-1-0

• February 18: Lost 3-2 vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1499)
• February 21: Won 7-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (6th, 1537)

Next week:

• February 25: @ New York Islanders (11th, 1517)
• February 26: @ New York Rangers (22th, 1483)
• February 28: @ New York Rangers (22th, 1483)

2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1560, ▲15)

Record: 9-4-1, 3rd in West Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 16: Won 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)
• February 20: Won 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)

Next week:

• February 22: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)
• February 24: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1498)
• February 26: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1491)
• February 27: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1491)

2 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲2 (1560, ▲12)

Record: 14-3-2, 1st in North Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 23% (▲10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• February 15: Lost in OT 6-5 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
• February 17: Won 2-1 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
• February 18: Won 7-3 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
• February 20: Won 5-3 @ Montreal Canadiens (16th, 1501)

Next week:

• February 22: vs. Calgary Flames (23th, 1481)
• February 24: vs. Calgary Flames (23th, 1481)
• February 27: @ Edmonton Oilers (8th, 1526)

4. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼3 (1557, ▼17)

Record: 10-4-1, 4th in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▼7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼12)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-0

• February 15: Lost 6-4 vs. Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)
• February 18: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)
• February 20: Lost 4-0 @ Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 20: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)

Next week:

• February 22: @ Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 24: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 25: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 27: vs. Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)

5. Carolina Hurricanes ▲3 (1539, ▲19)

Record: 12-3-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 89% (▲12)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• February 15: Won 7-3 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (14th, 1505)
• February 17: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)
• February 19: Won 5-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (23th, 1481)
• February 20: Won 4-0 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 20: Postponed vs. Chicago Blackhawks (23th, 1481)

Next week:

• February 22: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 24: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 25: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 27: @ Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)         1561 (▼4)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)    1560 (▲15)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)   1560 (▲12)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)   1557 (▼17)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)   1539 (▲19)
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)   1537 (▼8)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)  1537 (▼15)
 8       Edmonton Oilers (▲3)       1526 (▲12)
 9       Florida Panthers (▲2)      1521 (▲7)
10        Washington Capitals (▲3)  1519 (▲10)
11 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)    1517 (▼1)
11 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4)       1517 (▼20)
13        Winnipeg Jets (▲4)        1511 (▲10)
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 1505 (▼11)
14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)          1505
16       Montreal Canadiens (▼3)    1501 (▼8)
17       New Jersey Devils (▲1)     1499 (▲2)
18        Minnesota Wild (▲3)       1498 (▲9)
19        Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)  1497 (▲7)
20        Arizona Coyotes (▼1)      1491 (▼2)
21        Los Angeles Kings (▲4)    1487 (▲17)
22        New York Rangers (▲1)     1483 (▲3)
23 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼7)        1481 (▼23)
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)    1481
25        San Jose Sharks (▲4)      1469 (▲19)
26        Vancouver Canucks         1467 (▲1)
27        Nashville Predators (▲1)  1464 (▲4)
28        Anaheim Ducks (▼4)        1456 (▼23)
29        Buffalo Sabres (▼2)       1452 (▼9)
30        Ottawa Senators           1411 (▼4)
31        Detroit Red Wings         1403 (▼2)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)   35% (▲16)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)   31% (▼21)
 3       Florida Panthers           21% (▲7)
 4       Dallas Stars               6%
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)    3%
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets      3% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings          <1%
 7 (tie) Nashville Predators        <1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins              50% (▲1)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers        17% (▼5)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)   10% (▲4)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)    8% (▼1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)   6% (▲1)
 6       New Jersey Devils (▼2)     5% (▼1)
 7       New York Rangers (▲1)      2% (▲1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)        1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)    39% (▲18)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)  29% (▼15)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)       13% (▼8)
 4       Minnesota Wild             8% (▲3)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)     4% (▲3)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)       3%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)       3% (▲2)
 8       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)         1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs        63% (▲12)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)         13% (▲2)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)       12% (▲2)
 4       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)    9% (▼9)
 5       Calgary Flames                2% (▼7)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)       <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks          <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)   89% (▲12)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)   87% (▼7)
 3       Florida Panthers           79% (▲9)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)          49%
 5       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)    41% (▲2)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) 40% (▼14)
 7       Nashville Predators        13% (▼1)
 8       Detroit Red Wings          1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins              91% (▼1)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers        71% (▼8)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)   59% (▲11)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)    55% (▼1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)   48% (▲6)
 6       New Jersey Devils (▼1)     42% (▼1)
 7       New York Rangers (▲1)      22% (▲3)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)        12% (▼9)

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)    87% (▲10)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)  81% (▼9)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)       65% (▼14)
 4       Minnesota Wild             51% (▲9)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)     40% (▲18)
 6       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)       34% (▼6)
 7       San Jose Sharks (▲1)       29% (▲12)
 8       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)         12% (▼20)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs        98% (▲3)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)       83% (▲13)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)         81% (▲14)
 4       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)    75% (▼5)
 5       Calgary Flames             42% (▼22)
 6       Vancouver Canucks          18% (▼3)
 7       Ottawa Senators            3%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)   23% (▲10)
 2       Boston Bruins              14% (▼2)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)   13% (▲7)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)   11% (▼12)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)    9% (▲5)
 6       Florida Panthers (▲1)      7% (▲3)
 7       Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)  5% (▼7)
 8       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)   3% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)       2% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)    2% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)         2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)          1%
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)        1%
12 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)    1%
12 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)     1%
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)   1%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5)       1% (▼3)
12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)   1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)   10% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins              9%
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)    9% (▲3)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)   8% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)   6% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)  6% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)       5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)   5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)      4%
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4)       4% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)   4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)         4% (▲1)
13 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)          3%
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼5)    3% (▼1)
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)    3%
16 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)       2%
16 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 2% (▼1)
16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲6)     2% (▲1)
16 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)        2%
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)     2%
16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)   2%
22 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼10)       1% (▼2)
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks         1%
22 (tie) New York Rangers           1%
22 (tie) Nashville Predators        1%
22 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7)       1% (▲1)
22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks          1%
28 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼6)         <1% (▼1)
28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼6)        <1% (▼1)
28 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)     <1%
28 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)       <1%

Once again this week, Tampa Bay and Boston remain the top two teams in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, although they’ve flipped places again this week, with Tampa Bay now on top. Tampa Bay went 3-1-0, and Boston went 2-1-0, although one of Boston’s wins was in overtime against the 23rd ranked Rangers.

Vegas went 3-1-0 to move back into the top 5, at number 3. Toronto remained the 4th ranked team, going 2-1-0, but with three games against 30th ranked Ottawa next week, I expect to see their rating move up a bit. Rounding out the top 5, tied in 5th, are Colorado, who lost their only game last week (two games were postponed), and Philadelphia, who had all four of their games postponed.

Big movers last week include Edmonton (3-0-0), who gained 22 rating points and moved up 9 spots to 11th, the Islanders (2-0-1), who gained 15 rating points and moved up 5 spots to 9th, and Columbus (2-0-1), who also gained 15 rating points and moved up 5 spots to 10th.

On the downside, Nashville had the worst week, going 1-3-0 with their only win coming against the worst-ranked Detroit, but they did play top-ranked Tampa Bay twice, so maybe their week wasn’t as bad as it looked. Other big droppers were the Rangers (0-2-1, with one game postponed), who lost 14 rating points and dropped 4 spots to 23rd, and San Jose (1-2-0), who lost 13 rating points and dropped 1 spot to 29th.

Finally, we’re giving Tampa Bay the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup, where our simulations show them having an 11% chance of winning it all, closely followed by Boston at 9%. Perhaps most surprisingly, Toronto, who haven’t won a cup since 1967, have an 8% chance, tied with Vegas.

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1574, ▲11)

Record: 10-2-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 94% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 23% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)

Last week: 3-1-0

• February 8: Won 4-1 @ Nashville Predators (28th, 1460)
• February 9: Won 6-1 @ Nashville Predators (28th, 1460)
• February 11: Lost 5-2 @ Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)
• February 13: Won 6-1 @ Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)
• February 18: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1505)
• February 20: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1505)

2. Boston Bruins ▼1 (1565, ▼2)

Record: 10-2-2, 1st in East Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 92% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 10: Won in OT 3-2 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
• February 12: Won 1-0 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
• February 13: Lost 4-2 @ New York Islanders (9th, 1518)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 18: vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 21: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (5th, 1545)

3. Vegas Golden Knights ▲3 (1552, ▲9)

Record: 10-2-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• February 9: Won 5-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (24th, 1479)
• February 11: Lost 1-0 vs. Anaheim Ducks (24th, 1479)
• February 13: Won 3-1 @ San Jose Sharks (29th, 1450)
• February 14: Won 1-0 vs. Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)

Next week:

• February 16: vs. Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)
• February 20: @ Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)

4. Toronto Maple Leafs (1548, ▲3)

Record: 11-3-1, 1st in North Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 8: Won 3-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1466)
• February 10: Won 4-2 @ Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)
• February 13: Lost 2-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
• February 17: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
• February 18: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
• February 20: @ Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)

5 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▼2 (1545, ▼7)

Record: 7-4-1, 3rd in West Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 77% (▼5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 0-1-0

• February 9: Postponed vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1493)
• February 11: Postponed vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1493)
• February 14: Lost 1-0 @ Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)

Next week:

• February 16: @ Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)
• February 20: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)

5 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers ▼1 (1545)

Record: 8-3-2, 2nd in East Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 79%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 0-0-0

• February 9: Postponed @ Washington Capitals (13th, 1509)
• February 11: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 13: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 14: Postponed @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)

Next week:

• February 18: vs. New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
• February 21: @ Boston Bruins (2nd, 1565)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1574 (▲11)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1565 (▼2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     1552 (▲9)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs           1548 (▲3)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       1545 (▼7)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1545
 7       St. Louis Blues               1537 (▲7)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes           1520 (▲2)
 9       New York Islanders (▲5)       1518 (▲15)
10       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5)    1516 (▲15)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲9)          1514 (▲22)
11 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1514 (▲6)
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       1509 (▼6)
13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4)      1509 (▼7)
15       Dallas Stars (▼5)             1505 (▼10)
16       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1504 (▲7)
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼5)            1501 (▼12)
18       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1497
19       Arizona Coyotes (▼3)          1493 (▼7)
20       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1490 (▲8)
21       Minnesota Wild                1489
22       Chicago Blackhawks            1481 (▼7)
23       New York Rangers (▼4)         1480 (▼14)
24       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1479 (▲5)
25       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1470 (▲6)
26       Vancouver Canucks             1466 (▼4)
27       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1461
28       Nashville Predators (▼4)      1460 (▼17)
29       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1450 (▼13)
30       Ottawa Senators               1415 (▼8)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1405

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           52% (▲9)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           19%
 3       Florida Panthers              14% (▼1)
 4       Dallas Stars                  6% (▼7)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         5% (▲1)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       3% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
 7 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1% (▼2)

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 49% (▲1)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           22%
 3       New York Islanders (▲2)       9% (▲4)
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils             6%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      6% (▼4)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      5% (▲2)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           2%
 8       New York Rangers (▼2)         1% (▼3)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          44% (▲8)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            21% (▼8)
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          21% (▲4)
 4       Minnesota Wild                5% (▼1)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          3% (▼3)
 6       Anaheim Ducks                 2% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           51% (▲6)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            18% (▼7)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 11% (▼7)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          10% (▲6)
 5       Calgary Flames (▼1)           9% (▲2)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             1%
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           94% (▲6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           77% (▲5)
 3       Florida Panthers              70% (▲5)
 4       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    54% (▲15)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             49% (▼13)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       39%
 7       Nashville Predators           14% (▼15)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             2% (▼2)

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 92% (▲2)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           79%
 3       New York Islanders (▲1)       56% (▲13)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      48% (▼9)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        43%
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      42% (▲10)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           21% (▼1)
 8       New York Rangers (▼2)         19% (▼15)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          90% (▲6)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          79% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       77% (▼5)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           42% (▼1)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          40% (▼5)
 6       Anaheim Ducks                 32% (▲2)
 7       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        22% (▲3)
 8       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          17% (▼10)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           95% (▲2)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            80% (▼5)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          70% (▲21)
 4       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            67% (▼11)
 5       Calgary Flames (▼1)           64% (▲5)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             21% (▼8)
 7       Ottawa Senators               3% (▼4)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           23% (▲7)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            16%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           13%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12% (▲2)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      6%
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           5% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       4% (▼3)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         4%
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          4% (▲1)
10       Montreal Canadiens (▼4)       3% (▼3)
11 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3)           1%
11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲9)    1% (▲1)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             1% (▼2)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲9)          1% (▲1)
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1%
11 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       1%
11 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1%
11 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲9)      1% (▲1)
11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      1% (▼1)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           11% (▲2)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            9%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          8% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      6%
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          6% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           4%
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲6)          4% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            4%
12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4)             3% (▼1)
12 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Washington Capitals           3%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            3% (▼1)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          2%
18 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼4)           2%
18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼4)        2%
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5)      2% (▲1)
22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1%
22 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼8)       1% (▼1)
22 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1%
22 (tie) New York Rangers (▼8)         1% (▼1)
22 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1%
22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1%
29 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
29 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
29 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼6)          <1% (▼1)

 

This week’s McDonald NHL Power Ratings are out a little later than usual, but here they are!

Boston had a strong week (3-0-0 against the Capitals and Flyers) to move into first in the rankings.  Tampa Bay also went 3-0-0, but because they played against weaker teams, their rating didn’t increase as much as Boston’s, so they’ve dropped into 2nd place.  The Leafs cracked the top 5 for the first time this year, possibly for the first time since I’ve done the ratings.  Other big movers included Winnipeg (12th, 2-0-1, up 12 points), Arizona (16th, 2-1-0, up 14 points), and the Rangers (19th, 2-0-0, up 15 points).

Boston and Tampa Bay are still the favourites to win the Stanley Cup.  We give both teams a 9% chance of winning.  Ottawa and Detroit are the longshots, at only a 7% and 4% chance of even making the playoffs.

On the downside, big droppers were Washington (9th, 0-3-0, down 24 points), Vancouver (26th, 0-4-0, down 23 points), and Los Angeles (27th, 0-3-0, down 19 points).

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1567, ▲17)

Record: 8-1-2, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲13)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 1: Won 5-3 @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
• February 3: Won in OT 4-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1545)
• February 5: Won 2-1 @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1545)

Next week:

• February 10: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
• February 12: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
• February 13: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1503)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1563, ▲13)

Record: 7-1-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 1: Won 5-2 vs. Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 3: Won 5-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1405)
• February 5: Won 3-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1405)

Next week:

• February 8: @ Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 9: @ Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 11: @ Florida Panthers (13th, 1508)
• February 13: @ Florida Panthers (13th, 1508)

3. Colorado Avalanche (1552, ▲6)

Record: 7-3-1, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 82% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-0-0

• February 2: Won 2-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (21th, 1489)
• February 4: Postponed vs. Minnesota Wild (21th, 1489)
• February 6: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (7th, 1530)
• February 7: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (7th, 1530)

Next week:

• February 9: vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1500)
• February 11: vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1500)
• February 14: @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1543)

4 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers ▼1 (1545, ▼1)

Record: 8-3-2, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-1-1

• February 3: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1567)
• February 5: Lost 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1567)
• February 7: Won 7-4 @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)

Next week:

• February 9: @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
• February 11: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1497)
• February 13: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1497)
• February 14: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)

4 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲3 (1545, ▲11)

Record: 9-2-1, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 93% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 4: Won 7-3 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
• February 6: Won 5-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)

Next week:

• February 8: vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
• February 10: @ Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1515)
• February 13: vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1515)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1567 (▲17)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1563 (▲13)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            1552 (▲6)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1545 (▼1)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1545 (▲11)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1543 (▲10)
 7       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1530 (▼14)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1518 (▲1)
 9       Washington Capitals (▼3)      1516 (▼24)
10 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1515
10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       1515 (▲9)
12       Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            1513 (▲12)
13       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1508 (▼6)
14       New York Islanders (▲2)       1503 (▲6)
15       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3)    1501 (▼9)
16       Arizona Coyotes (▲7)          1500 (▲14)
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3)           1497 (▼5)
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1497
19       New York Rangers (▲6)         1494 (▲15)
20       Edmonton Oilers               1492 (▼2)
21       Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1489 (▼6)
22       Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1488 (▲9)
23       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼5)      1482 (▼13)
24       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1477 (▼10)
25       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1474 (▲7)
26       Vancouver Canucks (▼5)        1470 (▼23)
27       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1464 (▼19)
28       San Jose Sharks               1463 (▲2)
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1461
30       Ottawa Senators               1423 (▼2)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1405 (▲3)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           43% (▲14)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19%
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         15% (▼6)
 4       Dallas Stars                  13% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       4% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         4% (▼4)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      2% (▼3)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)            48% (▲22)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           22% (▼4)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼2)      10% (▼17)
 4       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        6%
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       5% (▲1)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         4% (▲2)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      3% (▼4)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           2%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     36% (▲10)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       29% (▲4)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          17% (▼11)
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          6% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild                6% (▼2)
 6       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            3% (▲1)
 7       San Jose Sharks               2%
 8       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1% (▼4)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           45% (▲9)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            25% (▲2)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 18% (▲4)
 4       Calgary Flames                7% (▼4)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          4% (▼2)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1% (▼8)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           88% (▲10)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      72% (▲3)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         65% (▼5)
 4       Dallas Stars                  62% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       39% (▲10)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         39% (▼11)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      29% (▼8)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             4%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins (▲2)            90% (▲13)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      79%
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      57% (▼21)
 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       43% (▲8)
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        43% (▲2)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         34% (▲12)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      32% (▼13)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           22%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     84% (▲9)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            82% (▲5)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          70% (▼9)
 4       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          45% (▲11)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           43% (▼7)
 6       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            30% (▲7)
 7       San Jose Sharks               27% (▲4)
 8       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        19% (▼19)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           93% (▲7)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            85% (▲8)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 78% (▲13)
 4       Calgary Flames                59%
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          49% (▲1)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        29% (▼26)
 7       Ottawa Senators               7% (▼2)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            16% (▲8)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           16% (▲6)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      13% (▲4)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     10% (▲3)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)      6%
 6 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲5)       6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6% (▼2)
 9       Florida Panthers (▼2)         4% (▼3)
10 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             3% (▼2)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6)          3% (▼5)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            3% (▲1)
13       Washington Capitals (▼11)     2% (▼7)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲10)         1% (▲1)
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲10)      1% (▲1)
14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1%
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 9% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           9% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       7%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5)     7% (▲2)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6%
 7       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      4%
 8 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             4%
 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       4%
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         3% (▼1)
12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼8)      3% (▼3)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          2%
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲11)      2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          2%
14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           2%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       2%
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▲11)        2% (▲1)
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        2%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼6)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼6)      1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1% (▼1)
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼10)       1% (▼2)
30 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
30 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

 

I’ve been calculating the “McDonald Power Ratings” in both the CFL and NHL for the last three years, mostly just for myself and my son, but last year, I started posting the NHL ones to my blog.  Unfortunately, the season shut down early, so I stopped doing them, and after the long COVID lay-off, I didn’t think they would be very accurate for last year’s playoffs.  But, I’ve started them again this year, and here’s the first posting for the year!  I’ll be posting the new ratings every Monday.

As more games are being played, the calibration of our internal models is beginning to settle down, so we’re starting to see less big jumps in ratings.  Boston, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia continue to be the top three teams, although Colorado (3-0-1 this week) and St. Louis (3-0-0) both made big moves to round out the top five.

Other big movers this week included Washington (3-0-0, +11 rating points) and Toronto (2-0-1, +16 rating points), although the biggest mover was Vancouver (4-0-0, +27 rating points).

We’re currently predicting that Boston, Colorado, and Tampa Bay have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup (7% chance for each), and Tampa Bay has the best chance of winning the President’s Trophy (10%).

At the bottom end of the scale, Ottawa (ranked 2nd last) and Detroit (ranked last) have less than a 1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Ottawa had the biggest downward move, going 0-4-0 in the last week and dropping a whopping 23 rating points.

In the following rankings, the change indicated is the amount of change from the previous week.

The Top 5

1 (tie). Boston Bruins (1550, ▲5)

Record: 5-1-2, 3rd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 77% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• January 26: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1495)
• January 28: Won 4-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1495)
• January 30: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)

Next week:

• February 1: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)
• February 3: @ Philadelphia Flyers (3rd, 1546)
• February 5: @ Philadelphia Flyers (3rd, 1546)
• February 6: vs. Buffalo Sabres (28th, 1461)

1 (tie). Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1550, ▲6)

Record: 4-1-1, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 78% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-0-1

• January 28: Lost in OT 1-0 @ Carolina Hurricanes (9th, 1517)
• January 30: Won 4-3 vs. Nashville Predators (22th, 1487)

Next week:

• February 1: vs. Nashville Predators (22th, 1487)
• February 3: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1402)
• February 5: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1402)

3 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲4 (1546, ▲18)

Record: 6-3-1, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 77% (▲17)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• January 26: Won 7-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1461)
• January 28: Won 3-0 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1461)
• January 30: Won 5-1 @ Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
• January 31: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)

Next week:

• February 2: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
• February 4: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
• February 6: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1544)
• February 7: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1544)

3 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers (1546, ▲11)

Record: 7-2-1, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79% (▲17)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 26: Won 5-3 @ New Jersey Devils (16th, 1497)
• January 28: Won 3-1 @ New Jersey Devils (16th, 1497)
• January 30: Won in OT 3-2 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1497)
• January 31: Won in OT 4-3 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1497)

Next week:

• February 3: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1550)
• February 5: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1550)
• February 7: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)

5. St. Louis Blues (1544, ▲15)

Record: 6-2-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79% (▲16)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• January 26: Won in SO 5-4 @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1533)
• January 28: Game @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1533) postponed
• January 30: Won 6-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1467)
• January 31: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1467)

Next week:

• February 2: vs. Arizona Coyotes (23th, 1486)
• February 4: vs. Arizona Coyotes (23th, 1486)
• February 6: vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1546)
• February 7: vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1546)

Overall Ratings

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1550 (▲5)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1550 (▲6)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       1546 (▲18)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           1546 (▲11)
 5       St. Louis Blues               1544 (▲15)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1540 (▲11)
 7       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      1534 (▲16)
 8       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     1533 (▼1)
 9       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1517 (▲6)
10       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1515 (▼4)
11       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1514 (▲7)
12       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1510 (▼2)
13       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1506 (▼3)
14       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1502 (▼5)
15       Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1501 (▼2)
16 (tie) New York Islanders            1497 (▼8)
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1497 (▼7)
18 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1495 (▼11)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1495 (▼3)
20       Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          1494 (▼10)
21       Vancouver Canucks (▲7)        1493 (▲27)
22       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1487 (▼8)
23       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1486 (▼2)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1483 (▲3)
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1479 (▲2)
25 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2)         1479 (▼7)
27       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1467 (▼12)
28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1461 (▼2)
28 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1461 (▼10)
30       Ottawa Senators               1425 (▼23)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1402 (▼7)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           29% (▲1)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         21% (▲5)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19% (▲5)
 4       Dallas Stars (▼2)             15% (▼5)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         8% (▼2)
 6       Nashville Predators           5% (▼2)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            3% (▼1)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals (▲1)      27% (▲7)
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            26% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      26% (▲9)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      7% (▼3)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        6% (▼6)
 6       New York Islanders (▼1)       4% (▼7)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           2% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              2% (▼2)

West Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          28% (▲10)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     26% (▼4)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            25% (▲10)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           8% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             5% (▼1)
 6       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          4% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            2% (▼4)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2% (▼3)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      36% (▲12)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       23% (▼4)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 14% (▼3)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           11% (▼6)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        9% (▲6)
 6       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          6% (▼4)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          <1% (▼3)

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           78% (▲2)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         70% (▲10)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      69% (▲10)
 4       Dallas Stars (▼2)             63% (▼3)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         50% (▼4)
 6       Nashville Predators           37% (▼6)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            29% (▼5)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             4% (▼5)

East Division

 1       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      79% (▲17)
 2       Washington Capitals           78% (▲13)
 3       Boston Bruins (▼2)            77% (▲6)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      45% (▼3)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        41% (▼12)
 6       New York Islanders (▼1)       35% (▼14)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           22% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              22% (▼6)

West Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          79% (▲16)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       77% (▲17)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     75% (▼1)
 4       Minnesota Wild                50% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             38% (▲1)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               34% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            23% (▼13)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          23% (▼11)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      86% (▲10)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       77% (▼1)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 65% (▼2)
 4       Calgary Flames                59% (▼7)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        55% (▲25)
 6       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          48% (▼7)
 7       Ottawa Senators               9% (▼18)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           10%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      9% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5)      9% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            8% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5)      8% (▲4)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          8% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              7% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     7% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲5)       6% (▲3)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼6)             5% (▼1)
11 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼8)       5% (▼2)
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           2% (▼2)
13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            2% (▼2)
16 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          1%
16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        1%
16 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1% (▼2)
16 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲4)      1%
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1% (▼2)
16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲12)       1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            7% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       7% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           7%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           6% (▲1)
 8       Vegas Golden Knights (▼6)     5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           4%
 9 (tie) Dallas Stars                  4%
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers              4%
 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            4%
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    3%
13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲14)       3% (▲2)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            3% (▼1)
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4)          2%
17 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        2%
17 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           2% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)       2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲4)      2%
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      2% (▼1)
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼4)            1% (▼1)
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼4)       1% (▼1)
25 (tie) New York Rangers (▼4)         1% (▼1)
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1%
30 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
30 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼3)          <1% (▼1)