McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 3

Teams continue to gain their footing as Week 3 has completed in the CFL. In the Thursday night game, Trevor Harris threw for 296 yards and James Wilder Jr. rushed for 127 yards as the Edmonton Elks spoiled the BC Lions home opener, winning 21-16.

On Friday night, Calgary defeated Montreal 28-22 at home for their first win of the season. Jake Maier made his CFL debut as the starting quarterback for Calgary, replacing the injured Bo Levi Mitchell, and passed for 304 yards and a touchdown for his first career win. Montreal almost came back to win it, but Calgary managed to stop them at the goal line as time ran out on the clock.

In the early game on Saturday, top-ranked Winnipeg travelled to Toronto for the first game to be held in the East this year. Toronto surprised the Blue Bombers with a 30-23 win for the hometown team. Nick Arbuckle, the Toronto quarterback, completed 23 of 32 passes for 310 yards to pick up the win for the Argos.

And in Saturday’s late game, Saskatchewan never trailed as they dominated Ottawa 23-10. Cody Fajardo passed for 321 yards, but it was the Rider defense that starred. Saskatchewan is now the only undefeated team in the CFL, and the win has moved them into the top spot in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings.

The big story next week is the Edmonton game in Toronto on Thursday night. It’s been postponed due to a number of Elks players testing positive for COVID-19 (14 at press time). As per the CFL’s COVID protocol, the game has been postponed, but a new date for the game has not been announced yet. If the CFL can’t find a date to play the game, Toronto will be awarded a 1-0 win. Our McDonald CFL Power Ratings team was giving Toronto a 57% chance of winning the game.

In Friday night’s game, Hamilton visits Montreal. Although we’ve got Hamilton rated higher than Montreal, we’re giving Montreal a slight edge to win this game due to home field advantage, with a 54% chance of winning. Hamilton is looking for their first win of the season, while if Montreal wins, they’ll move into a tie for first place in the East with Toronto.

Saturday’s early game has BC travelling to Ottawa. These teams are ranked at the bottom of our Power Ratings, so they’re both looking for a critical victory to get their season on track. We’re giving Ottawa the edge here, with a 56% chance of winning the game.

In the final game of the weekend on Saturday, Calgary travels to Winnipeg. Winnipeg is looking to bounce back after their loss to Ottawa last week, while Calgary is looking for their second straight victory. The McDonald CFL Power Rating boys are predicting a Winnipeg win, with a 61% chance of that happening. With a win, Winnipeg can retake the top ranking over the idle Saskatchewan Roughriders.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

We’ve got a new top-ranked team this week. With Saskatchewan’s win over Ottawa, and Winnipeg’s loss to Toronto, Saskatchewan has now taken over top spot in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with Winnipeg dropping to second. Both teams are rated much stronger than the rest of the league. Other moves up include Toronto, moving up from 8th to 6th, and Edmonton, from 9th to 7th, while drop downs include British Columbia (6th to 8th) and Ottawa (7th to 9th). Ottawa is now our lowest ranked team.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1557 (▲8)	3-0, 1st West
2 (▼1)	Winnipeg	1541 (▼13)	2-1, 2nd West
3	Hamilton	1511	0-2, 4th East
4 (▲1)	Calgary	1505 (▲11)	1-2, T-3rd West
5 (▼1)	Montreal	1496 (▼11)	1-1, T-2nd East
6 (▲2)	Toronto	1487 (▲14)	2-1, 1st East
7 (▲2)	Edmonton	1484 (▲15)	1-2, T-3rd West
8 (▼2)	British Columbia	1469 (▼15)	1-2, T-3rd West
9 (▼2)	Ottawa	1468 (▼8)	1-1, T-2nd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Saskatchewan is now our favourite to win the Grey Cup, at a whopping 23% chance. The next closest team is Winnipeg, who we’re giving a 16% chance. The top Eastern team is Hamilton with a 13% chance, followed closely by Montreal at 12% and Toronto at 11%. We’re giving a 55% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 45% chance of an Eastern team, no change from last week.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Saskatchewan	1557	23% (▲4)
2	Winnipeg	1541	16% (▼4)
3	Hamilton	1511	13%
4	Montreal	1496	12% (▼2)
5	Toronto	1487	11% (▲3)
6	Ottawa	1468	8% (▼2)
7	Calgary	1505	7% (▲2)
8	Edmonton	1484	6% (▲2)
9	British Columbia	1469	5% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Saskatchewan 3-0 1st in West	1557	92%	76%	50%	73%	41%	23%
Winnipeg 2-1 2nd in West	1541	82%	58%	28%	57%	29%	16%
Hamilton 0-2 4th in East	1511	63%	43%	20%	44%	23%	13%
Montreal 1-1 T-2nd in East	1496	72%	53%	27%	50%	26%	12%
Toronto 2-1 1st in East	1487	77%	58%	30%	53%	26%	11%
Ottawa 1-1 T-2nd in East	1468	66%	46%	22%	43%	20%	8%
Calgary 1-2 T-3rd in West	1505	51%	24%	9%	30%	14%	7%
Edmonton 1-2 T-3rd in West	1484	48%	21%	7%	26%	11%	6%
British Columbia 1-2 T-3rd in West	1469	49%	20%	6%	25%	10%	5%

Week 4 Game Predictions

Edmonton (42%) at Toronto (57%) — POSTPONED DUE TO COVID-19
Hamilton (45%) at Montreal (54%)
British Columbia (43%) at Ottawa (56%)
Calgary (38%) at Winnipeg (61%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 2

In Week 2, defense seemed to be the key in the CFL. Opening the week on Thursday Night Football, British Columbia defeated host Calgary 15-9. BC picked off Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell four times for the first time in his career.

Friday night’s game featured Toronto visiting top-ranked Winnipeg. Both Winnipeg’s offense and defense both looked strong, as they took an early lead and never looked back, winning 20-7.

In Saturday’s early game, Montreal travelled to Edmonton to open their season. A strong performance by them, and a weak performance by Edmonton, resulted in a 30-13 win for Montreal.

Saturday’s late game involved 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan playing host to 3rd-ranked Hamilton. Despite being penalized 20 times for 187 yards, and being held rougeless, the Roughriders dominated and won 30-8.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg and Saskatchewan remain the top 2 teams this week, and despite being 0-2, Hamilton has retained 3rd place in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings. British Columbia made a big move, jumping 3 spots after their win over Calgary. Meanwhile, Edmonton dropped down to last place in the rankings after losing to Montreal.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1554 (▲9)	2-0, T-1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1549 (▲10)	2-0, T-1st West
3	Hamilton	1511 (▼10)	0-2, 4th East
4 (▲1)	Montreal	1507 (▲14)	1-0, T-1st East
5 (▼1)	Calgary	1494 (▼16)	0-2, T-4th West
6 (▲3)	British Columbia	1484 (▲16)	1-1, 3rd West
7 (▲1)	Ottawa	1476	1-0, T-1st East
8	Toronto	1473 (▼8)	1-1, 3rd East
9 (▼3)	Edmonton	1469 (▼14)	0-2, T-4th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg, at 20%, and Saskatchewan, at 19%, are the most likely teams to win the Grey Cup. The top Eastern team is Montreal with a 14% chance, followed closely by Hamilton at 13%. We’re giving a 55% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 45% chance of an Eastern team.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1554	20% (▲2)
2	Saskatchewan	1539	19% (▲3)
3 (▲1)	Montreal	1507	14% (▲3)
4 (▼1)	Hamilton	1511	13% (▼3)
5 (▲1)	Ottawa	1476	10%
6 (▼1)	Toronto	1473	8% (▼2)
7 (▲2)	British Columbia	1484	7% (▲2)
8 (▼1)	Calgary	1494	5% (▼4)
9 (▼1)	Edmonton	1469	4% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 2-0 T-1st in West	1554	90%	69%	41%	68%	37%	20%
Saskatchewan 2-0 T-1st in West	1549	89%	68%	38%	65%	34%	19%
Montreal 1-0 T-1st in East	1507	79%	61%	36%	58%	31%	14%
Hamilton 0-2 4th in East	1511	64%	44%	19%	44%	23%	13%
Ottawa 1-0 T-1st in East	1476	72%	52%	27%	48%	23%	10%
Toronto 1-1 3rd in East	1473	64%	43%	18%	40%	19%	8%
British Columbia 1-1 3rd in West	1484	66%	33%	12%	35%	14%	7%
Calgary 0-2 T-4th in West	1494	41%	17%	6%	23%	10%	5%
Edmonton 0-2 T-4th in West	1469	34%	13%	4%	18%	7%	4%

Week 3 Game Predictions

Edmonton (41%) at British Columbia (58%)
Montreal (45%) at Calgary (54%)
Winnipeg (53%) at Toronto (46%)
Ottawa (33%) at Saskatchewan (66%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 1

Ah, the CFL is back! Week 1 provided a number of interesting games, and we see our ratings start to move. We expect that after about 6 games, they’ll be pretty accurate, but for now, there’s still uncertainty built in. That will continue to shake out over the next few weeks.

Thursday’s opening game featured a rematch of the 2019 Grey Cup (there was no Grey Cup in 2020, nor season, due to the COVID-19 pandemic), with Hamilton visiting Winnipeg. Hamilton scored a touchdown on their first possession, but didn’t score again all game, as Winnipeg prevailed 19-6.

In the Friday night game, Saskatchewan hosted British Columbia. Saskatchewan scored touchdowns on their first 3 possessions to take a 21-0 lead, and led by as much as 31-0 in the first half. But the second half was a completely different game, with BC outscoring the Riders 29-2 the rest of the way, but Saskatchewan held on to win 33-29. The star of the game had to be Saskatchewan punter Jon Ryan, a native of Regina and Super Bowl winner with the Seattle Seahawks, who scored two rouges (arguably the most exciting play in Canadian football!) on punts of 67 and 77 yards! Also of note, BC placekicker Tarkeru Yamasaki became the first Japanese-born player to score a point in the CFL. Interestingly enough, BC’s other kicker, punter Jake Ford, was born in Australia and played Aussie Rules football and rugby growing up.

There were two games on Saturday. In the early game, Toronto stunned Calgary 23-20. The Argos scored 11 points in the fourth quarter to come back, and picked off a Stampeder pass with 31 seconds left in the game to quench any hope of a Calgary comeback.

In Saturday’s nightcap, the newly-named Edmonton Elks hosted Ottawa. In a tight defensive game, Ottawa scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to win 16-12. On the final play of the game, the Elks scrimmaged from Ottawa’s 17-yard line and completed a pass for 16 yards, being stopped one yard short of the victory.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg retains their number 1 ranking, while Saskatchewan has moved past Hamilton for 2nd spot. British Columbia dropped two spots to be the lowest ranked team this week.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1545 (▲11)	1-0, T-1st West
2 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1539 (▲9)	1-0, T-1st West
3 (▼1)	Hamilton	1521 (▼11)	0-1, 4th East
4	Calgary	1510 (▼16)	0-1, T-3rd West
5 (▲1)	Montreal	1493	0-0, 3rd East
6 (▼1)	Edmonton	1483 (▼15)	0-1, T-3rd West
7 (▲1)	Toronto	1481 (▲17)	1-0, T-1st East
8 (▲1)	Ottawa	1476 (▲16)	1-0, T-1st East
9 (▼2)	British Columbia	1468 (▼9)	0-1, T-3rd West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is now the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with an 18% chance. We’re giving a 54% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 46% chance of an Eastern team.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1 (▲3)	Winnipeg	1545	18% (▲9)
2 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1539	16% (▲6)
3 (▼2)	Hamilton	1521	16% (▼9)
4 (▼2)	Montreal	1493	11% (▼2)
5 (▲3)	Toronto	1481	10% (▲1)
6	Ottawa	1476	10% (▲1)
7 (▼2)	Calgary	1510	9%
8 (▼1)	Edmonton	1483	6% (▼3)
9	British Columbia	1468	5% (▼3)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg (1-0) T-1st West	1545	84%	63%	37%	62%	33%	18%
Saskatchewan (1-0) T-1st in West	1539	81%	58%	32%	58%	30%	16%
Hamilton (0-1) 4th in East	1521	71%	52%	26%	51%	28%	16%
Montreal (0-0) 3rd in East	1493	66%	47%	23%	45%	23%	11%
Toronto (1-0) T-1st in East	1481	71%	50%	25%	47%	23%	10%
Ottawa (1-0) T-1st in East	1476	72%	52%	26%	48%	23%	10%
Calgary (0-1) T-3rd in West	1510	59%	33%	14%	36%	17%	9%
Edmonton (0-1) T-3rd in West	1483	48%	24%	9%	27%	12%	6%
British Columbia (0-1) T-3rd in West	1468	48%	22%	8%	25%	10%	5%

Week 2 Game Predictions

British Columbia (37%) at Calgary (62%)
Toronto (34%) at Winnipeg (65%)
Montreal (44%) at Edmonton (55%)
Hamilton (40%) at Saskatchewan (59%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings Preseason Report

The McDonald Power Ratings team is back after a short hiatus. We took a break after the NHL playoffs concluded, but now we’re back as the CFL season is about to start. Here’s a brief look at our CFL predictions for this year.

Initial Ratings

Let’s start with a warning about our doubts with our initial ratings. There was no CFL season last year, there have been lots of personnel changes in the league, and this season’s schedule has been shortened to 14 games from 18, so we don’t have a lot of confidence in our initial predictions. As a result, we have adjusted our ratings to account for this uncertainty. We always adjust our initial ratings to decrease the ratings for the better than average teams and increase the ratings for the worse than average teams, but we’ve adjusted by a larger amount than normal this year. As the first few games are played, the ratings will be adjusted appropriately, but for now, here’s our initial ratings to give an indication of how we think the season will go.

Ranking	Team	Rating	2019 Record	2019 Playoffs
1	Winnipeg	1534	11-7, 3rd West	Won Grey Cup
2	Hamilton	1532	15-3, 1st East	Lost Grey Cup
3	Saskatchewan	1530	13-5, 1st West	Lost West Final
4	Calgary	1526	12-6, 2nd West	Lost West Semi
5	Edmonton	1498	8-10, 4th West	Lost East Final
6	Montreal	1493	10-8, 2nd East	Lost East Semi
7	British Columbia	1477	5-13, 5th West	—
8	Toronto	1464	4-14, 3rd East	—
9	Ottawa	1460	3-15, 4th East	—

Grey Cup Predictions

But how about the chances of winning the Grey Cup? There’s a surprise here!

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Hamilton	1532	25%
2	Montreal	1493	13%
3	Saskatchewan	1530	10%
4	Winnipeg	1534	9%
5	Calgary	1526	9%
6	Ottawa	1460	9%
7	Edmonton	1498	9%
8	Toronto	1464	9%
9	British Columbia	1477	8%

Clearly, it’s an advantage to play in the Eastern division! Last year, Hamilton had the best regular season record in the league, and made it all the way to the Grey Cup. By playing in the weak Eastern division, and 3 of the 4 teams in that division making the playoffs (barring a cross-over, of course), they’ve got a pretty good chance of advancing to the Grey Cup. And if you make it there, you’ve got roughly a 50-50 chance of winning. But, the Grey Cup is being held in Hamilton this year, so that would give them the home field advantage, so we’re giving them a 25% chance of winning it all!

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Hamilton	1532	80%	67%	40%	53%	40%	25%
Montreal	1493	69%	54%	26%	42%	27%	13%
Saskatchewan	1530	72%	44%	23%	50%	20%	10%
Winnipeg	1534	74%	48%	25%	52%	20%	9%
Calgary	1526	72%	45%	24%	51%	19%	9%
Ottawa	1460	58%	41%	18%	35%	19%	9%
Edmonton	1498	62%	34%	16%	44%	19%	9%
Toronto	1464	56%	39%	17%	34%	18%	9%
British Columbia	1477	55%	28%	12%	40%	19%	8%

Week 1 Game Predictions

Hamilton (43%) at Winnipeg (56%)
British Columbia (36%) at Saskatchewan (63%)
Toronto (34%) at Calgary (65%)
Ottawa (38%) at Edmonton (61%)

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, July 8, 2021

In a tight, tight game last night, Tampa Bay prevailed over Montreal 1-0 to win the Stanley Cup! Tampa Bay won the series 4 games to 1, and successfully defended their Stanley Cup championship from last year. The only goal of the game was scored by Ross Colton, 13:27 into the second period. Both Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy looked solid in net, but Montreal couldn’t get the puck past Vasilevskiy, who recorded his fifth shutout of the playoffs, earning himself the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoff MVP.

That’s it for the McDonald NHL Power Ratings for this year — we’ll see you in August when we release our first McDonald CFL Power Ratings, as the CFL is set to kick off their shortened season on August 5th!

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Tampa Bay: 1581
Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal 0 at Tampa Bay 1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, July 6, 2021

Facing elimination at home, the Montreal Canadiens lived to play another game after defeating Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime last night. Montreal took the lead 1-0 in the first period, and held that lead until late in the second when Tampa Bay scored. It was a tight game, but Alex Romanov scored for Montreal at 8:48 of the third period to take the lead. Romanov scored 7 seconds into his first shift of the Stanley Cup Finals! Tampa Bay turned on the pressure at that point, and finally managed to beat Carey Price with 6:12 left in the third period. Tampa Bay continued heavy pressure, dominating play, and then the Canadien’s Shea Weber took a 4 minute minor penalty for a high stick that drew blood with 1:01 left on the clock. Montreal’s penalty killers, and Carey Price, did their job to hold off Tampa Bay for the rest of the period and the first three minutes of overtime to kill off the penalty. Finally, Josh Anderson made a masterful defensive play to break out, and made a diving shot off a Cole Caufield rebound to lead the Canadiens to an overtime victory!

Tampa Bay leads the series 3 games to 1. Despite the loss, we’re still giving Tampa Bay a 92.6% chance of winning the series, and a 64.0% chance of finishing it off in Game 5 in Tampa Bay on Wednesday.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
Tampa Bay now has an 92.6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 96.7%

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay
Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Tampa Bay has a 92.6% chance of winning (▼4.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼55.0)
- In 5 games: 64.0% (▲35.2)
- In 6 games: 18.0% (▲9.9)
- In 7 games: 10.6% (▲5.8)
Montreal has a 7.4% chance of winning (▲4.1)
- In 7 games: 7.4% (▲9.7)
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Wednesday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
Tampa Bay has an 92.6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 93%, Montreal 7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Tampa Bay: 1581
Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay
Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Tampa Bay has a 92.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 64.0%
- In 6 games: 18.0%
- In 7 games: 10.6%
Montreal has a 7.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.4%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, July 3, 2021

It seems strange writing up an NHL Playoff Report in July, but I might only get to do it once more, after Tampa Bay soundly defeated Montreal 6-3 in last night’s Stanley Cup Final game. The victory gives Tampa Bay a 3-0 lead in the series, and we’ve calculated that they’ve now got a 96.7% chance of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup (that sounds kind of bad!).

Tampa Bay put the pressure on early, jumping out to a 2-0 lead after three minutes and 27 seconds. Montreal closed within one halfway through the period, and there was no more scoring in the first frame. Once again in the second, Tampa Bay came out strong, scoring twice more in the first three and a half minutes to grab a 4-1 lead. Montreal scored with two minutes left in the second to make it 4-2, and that’s how the period ended. In the third, it was a tighter game, with Tampa Bay scoring with 4:41 left to make it 5-2, and Montreal scored 39 seconds later to make the game a little more interesting. But, with the Montreal goalie pulled, Tampa Bay finished off the scoring with 3:12 left.

In an interesting side note, thanks to COVID, Victor Hedman of Tampa Bay becomes the first NHL player to have scored a goal in all twelve months of the calendar!

The teams have the weekend off, with the series resuming on Monday in Montreal. With a victory, Tampa Bay can become the second back-to-back winner of the Stanley Cup this century (Pittsburgh is the other, having won it in both 2016 and 2017). Despite the game being in Montreal, we’re giving Tampa Bay a 55% chance of the sweep.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3

Tampa Bay leads series 3-0
Tampa Bay now has an 96.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 87.0%

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Tampa Bay has a 96.7% chance of winning (▲9.7)
- In 4 games: 55.0% (▲25.8)
- In 5 games: 28.8% (▼1.7)
- In 6 games: 8.1% (▼7.4)
- In 7 games: 4.8% (▼6.9)
Montreal has a 3.3% chance of winning (▼9.7)
- In 7 games: 3.3% (▼4.8)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼5.0)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Monday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay at Montreal

Tampa Bay leads series 3-0
Tampa Bay has an 96.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 97%, Montreal 3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Tampa Bay: 1581
Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Tampa Bay has a 96.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 55.0%
- In 5 games: 28.8%
- In 6 games: 8.1%
- In 7 games: 4.8%
Montreal has a 3.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 3.3%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, July 1, 2021

Montreal came out strong in last night’s game, looking like a much better team than in Game 1, but still lost to Tampa Bay 3-1. Montreal outshot Tampa Bay 43-23, but haven’t been able to solve the puzzle of Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. The first period ended scoreless, and Tampa Bay opened the scoring 6 minutes into the second period. Montreal tied it up at the halfway mark of the period, but Tampa Bay again took the lead with 0.3 seconds left in the period! Tampa Bay scored an insurance goal after Montreal’s bad giveaway behind their own net with 4:18 left, and that was all the scoring. Tampa Bay now leads the series 2-0, with Montreal unable to score more than 1 goal in either game so far. With the win, we’re now giving Tampa Bay an 87.0% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The teams now head to Montreal for Game 3 on Friday.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
Tampa Bay now has an 87.0% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 75.5%

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Tampa Bay has a 87.0% chance of winning (▲11.5)
- In 4 games: 29.2% (▲10.9)
- In 5 games: 30.5% (▲5.2)
- In 6 games: 15.5% (▼1.3)
- In 7 games: 11.7% (▼3.4)
Montreal has a 13.0% chance of winning (▼11.5)
- In 7 games: 8.1% (▼2.1)
- In 6 games: 5.0% (▼4.9)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼4.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Friday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay at Montreal

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
Tampa Bay has an 87.0% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 87%, Montreal 13%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Tampa Bay: 1581
Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Tampa Bay has a 87.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 29.2%
- In 5 games: 30.5%
- In 6 games: 15.5%
- In 7 games: 11.7%
Montreal has a 13.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.1%
- In 6 games: 5.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 29, 2021

In a game that was much closer than the final score indicated, Tampa Bay defeated Montreal 5-1 to take a 1-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Final. Tampa Bay took advantage of a Montreal turnover 6:19 into the first period to take the lead, and extended that lead to 2-0 in the second period after another Montreal turnover. Montreal fought back, though, and narrowed the gap with a goal late in the second period. But, after the Canadien’s Ben Chiarot tipped the puck into his own net early in the third, the wheels fell off for Montreal. Tampa Bay put the game out of reach midway through the third to make it 4-1, and finished up the scoring on a late power play goal.

With the win, Tampa Bay, already the favourite, has increased their chances of winning the Stanley Cup. The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Tampa Bay a 75.5% chance of winning the Final, up from 61.9%. That means, in our 1,000,000 simulations, Tampa Bay won roughly ¾ of the time. But that also means that Montreal won ¼ of the time, so they can’t be counted out yet! Remember, they won their first round series against Toronto after being down 3 games to 1, when we calculated that Toronto had a 95% chance of winning the series.

Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final goes tomorrow night in Tampa Bay.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5

Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
Tampa Bay now has a 75.5% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 61.9%

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning (▲13.6)
- In 4 games: 18.3% (▲7.1)
- In 5 games: 25.3% (▲6.3)
- In 6 games: 16.8% (▲1.2)
- In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.0)
Montreal has a 24.5% chance of winning (▼13.6)
- In 7 games: 10.2% (▼0.6)
- In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
- In 5 games: 4.4% (▼4.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.3)

Wednesday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Tampa Bay: 1581
Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.3%
- In 5 games: 25.3%
- In 6 games: 16.8%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
Montreal has a 24.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 5 games: 4.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 26, 2021

In a hard-fought game yesterday, Tampa Bay prevailed over the New York Islanders 1-0 to win their Semi-Final 4 games to 3. Tampa Bay played very tough defense, and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped everything that got through to him. Tampa Bay outshot New York 31-18, although Tampa Bay did block 21 of the Islanders’ shot attempts. The only goal of the game came on a short-handed goal by Yanni Gourde early in the second period.

Tampa Bay now advances to the Stanley Cup Final, facing underdog Montreal, who beat top-ranked Vegas in 6 games. With the updated McDonald NHL Power Ratings, we’re now giving Tampa Bay a rating of 1581, up 4 from before the last round, and Montreal a rating of 1544, up a huge 24 points due to their upset of Vegas. Plugging the latest results into our models, we’re giving the defending Stanley Cup champions Tampa Bay the edge, with a 61.9% chance of hoisting Lord Stanley’s mug. But that means Montreal still has a 38.1% chance of winning it themselves, and they’ve proven in these playoffs that they can’t be counted out!

Our next McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Report will come out on Tuesday, after Game 1 of the Finals.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Tampa Bay wins series 4-3

Series schedule:

June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
June 25: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Monday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

Series tied 0-0
Tampa Bay has a 61.9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchups – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

Vegas:
- First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
June 24: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
New York Islanders:
- First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
June 25: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 62%, Montreal 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Tampa Bay: 1581 (▲4)
Montreal: 1544 (▲24)

Playoffs so far:

Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

Monday, June 28: Montreal at Tampa Bay
Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Tampa Bay has a 61.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 11.2%
- In 5 games: 19.0%
- In 6 games: 15.6%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
Montreal has a 38.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.8%
- In 6 games: 13.2%
- In 5 games: 8.8%
- In 4 games: 5.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the Stanley Cup Finals started.

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           61.9%
 2       Montreal Canadiens            38.1%