McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 8

CFL logoIt was a quieter week in the CFL this week with only 3 games played.  Plus, the first game of the week was played on Wednesday, and two games were played on Friday.  No weekend games!  Very odd.  Plus, one game that looked close in the final score wasn’t, and another that didn’t look close was!

The Wednesday night game saw number 3-ranked Hamilton visit the lowest ranked team in the CFL, Ottawa.  Hamilton beat the RedBlacks easily, 24-7.  In a rainy night in Ottawa, the RedBlacks were only able to score one special teams touchdown, as DeVonte Dedmon returned a punt 63 yards for Ottawa’s only score.

In the first game of a Friday night doubleheader, Montreal visited Toronto.  Toronto led 21-10 at the half, and 30-20 with just over a minute left.  Montreal scored a touchdown to make the game closer, but weren’t able to come back, as Toronto defeated Montreal 30-27.  Vernon Adams passed for 382 yards for the Alouettes, and William Stanback rushed for another 133, but neither performance was enough to secure the victory.

And the most exciting game of the week, Saskatchewan squeaked by British Columbia 31-24.  BC led 24-18 with 20 seconds to go in the game, but the Riders were third and goal at the BC 1 yard line.  Cody Fajardo did the old quarterback sneak to tie up the game with 2 seconds left, and Brett Lauther converted to give the Riders a one point lead.  On the resulting kickoff, the Lions fumbled the ball, the Riders picked it up and rumbled into the endzone to put an exclamation mark on the victory!  Final score, Saskatchewan 31, BC 24.

Week 8 Results

Hamilton 24  at Ottawa 7
Montreal 27  at Toronto 30
Saskatchewan 31  at British Columbia 24

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There wasn’t a lot of movement in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings this week.  Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, and Hamilton remain numbers 1, 2, and 3.  Toronto jumped from 6th into a tie for 4th with British Columbia, pushing Calgary down to 6th.  There’s only 23 rating points separating the 4th through 8th teams, so all those teams are pretty close.  Ottawa continues to hold the lowest ranking.  And once again, only the top 3 teams have ratings above the 1500 point average.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1586 6-1, 1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1555 (13) 5-2, 2nd West
3 Hamilton 1543 (11) 4-3, T-1st East
T-4 (2) Toronto 1493 (11) 4-3, T-1st East
T-4 British Columbia 1493 (13) 4-3, 3rd West
6 (1) Calgary 1486 2-5, T-4th West
7 (1) Edmonton 1473 2-4, T-4th West
8 (1) Montreal 1470 (11) 2-4, 3rd East
9 Ottawa 1421 (11) 1-5, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, as they win it all in 29% of our simulations.  However, that is a drop of 1% from last week.  Hamilton is the second favourite at 26%.  Saskatchewan at 15% and Toronto at 12% are the only other teams with more than a 10% chance of winning.  And lowly Ottawa now has just a 1% chance of taking home the Cup.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1586 29% (1)
2 Hamilton 1543 26% (3)
3 Saskatchewan 1555 15% (3)
4 Toronto 1493 12% (2)
5 British Columbia 1493 6% (3)
6 Montreal 1470 5% (3)
7 (1) Edmonton 1473 2% (1)
8 (1) Calgary 1486 2%
9 (2) Ottawa 1421 1% (2)

Our Full Predictions

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg

6-1
1st in West

1586 >99% 93% 78% 90% 54% 29%
Hamilton

4-3
T-1st in East

1543 97% 90% 60% 82% 49% 26%
Saskatchewan

5-2
2nd in West

1555 96% 77% 15% 63% 28% 15%
Toronto

4-3
T-1st in East

1493 90% 74% 33% 63% 29% 12%
British Columbia

4-3
3rd in West

1493 80% 19% 5% 34% 13% 6%
Montreal

2-4
3rd in East

1470 58% 27% 6% 30% 12% 5%
Edmonton

2-4
T-4th in West

1473 31% 6% 1% 14% 5% 2%
Calgary

2-5
T-4th in West

1486 27% 6% <1% 12% 5% 2%
Ottawa

1-5
4th in East

1421 21% 9% 1% 10% 4% 1%

Week 9 Game Predictions

Edmonton (50%) at Ottawa (50%)
Winnipeg (55%) at British Columbia (44%)
Montreal (33%) at Hamilton (66%)
Saskatchewan (52%) at Calgary (47%)

2 thoughts on “McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 8”

  1. Thanks Shane. You have saved me a mountain of work, typing all the games in. As a Canadian living in Australia, it was a pleasant surprise to see reviews of the CFL. I shall be checking in weekly. I have schedules including results and betting odds for NHL, MLB, NBA, and NFL going back to the 2016/17 season in Excel if you would like copies. Good luck to all Canadian teams this year.
    Thx again
    rick

    1. Hi Rick, I’m glad you found my file useful! I’m sorry to say, I’m a little behind on my “McDonald CFL Power Ratings” posts — I’m currently without my computer, but I should get it back later this week, at which time I’ll get them updated. I also do a weekly “McDonald NHL Power Ratings” post, which I’ll get to after my CFL updates — you might enjoy them, too. Take care — Shane.

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