Home sweet home!  In last night’s Eastern Conference Finals playoff game, the New York Rangers won their eighth straight home playoff game, 3-2, and took a 2-0 lead in their series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.  Igor Shesterkin, the Ranger goalie, was the star of the game, stopping 29 Lightning shots, including a number of tough saves in the final minute to preserve the win.  With the 2-0 lead, we’ve calculated that the Rangers now have a 78.4% chance of winning the series, up from 62.1%.  Game 3 goes on Sunday in Tampa Bay.

In tonight’s game, Colorado travels to Edmonton to face the Oilers.  The Avalanche have a 2-0 series lead, and the boys in the back room have calculated that Colorado now has an 87.9% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3

• NY Rangers leads series 2-0
• NY Rangers now has a 78.4% chance of winning the series, up from 62.1%

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning (▲16.3)
  • In 4 games: 21.1% (▲9.4)
  • In 5 games: 27.1% (▲7.7)
  • In 6 games: 15.9% (▲0.8)
  • In 7 games: 14.2% (▼1.7)
• Tampa Bay has a 21.6% chance of winning (▼16.3)
  • In 7 games: 12.6% (▼1.5)
  • In 6 games: 9.0% (▼6.6)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼8.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado at Edmonton

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 78.4%, Tampa Bay 21.6%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 21.1%
  • In 5 games: 27.1%
  • In 6 games: 15.9%
  • In 7 games: 14.2%
• Tampa Bay has a 21.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.6%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 87.9%, Edmonton 12.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 30.3%
  • In 5 games: 31.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.4%
  • In 7 games: 11.3%
• Edmonton has a 12.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 4.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

Last night in the Western Conference Final, favourite Colorado hosted Edmonton, leading the series 1-0.  In what was actually a pretty close game, Colorado won 4-0 to take a pretty commanding series lead heading to Edmonton.  4-0 was a close game?  Well, it was close until Colorado exploded for 3 goals in 2:04 early in the second period!  Until then, it was a very close game (you can’t get much closer than 0-0, I suppose), and it stayed close checking until late in the third period when Colorado scored their fourth of the night.  Pavel Francouz, the Avalanche backup goalie, got the shutout victory, as he started in place of an injured Darcy Kuemper.

Game 3 goes on Friday night in Edmonton.  Our calculations show that Colorado now has an 87.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.9% before Game 2.  They also have a 30.3% chance of sweeping the series!

In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay visits the New York Rangers, with the Rangers holding a 1-0 lead in that series.  New York has a 62.1% chance of winning that series.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado now has a 87.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.9%

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning (▲11.0)
  • In 4 games: 30.3% (▲11.0)
  • In 5 games: 31.0% (▲5.1)
  • In 6 games: 15.4% (▼1.6)
  • In 7 games: 11.3% (▼3.4)
• Edmonton has a 12.1% chance of winning (▼11.0)
  • In 7 games: 7.5% (▼2.2)
  • In 6 games: 4.6% (▼4.7)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼4.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

• NY Rangers leads series 1-0
• NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 62.1%, Tampa Bay 37.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 11.7%
  • In 5 games: 19.4%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 37.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
  • In 6 games: 15.6%
  • In 5 games: 8.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 87.9%, Edmonton 12.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 30.3%
  • In 5 games: 31.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.4%
  • In 7 games: 11.3%
• Edmonton has a 12.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 4.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

The Eastern Conference Finals of the Stanley Cup playoffs started last night, with Tampa Bay heading to New York to face the Rangers.  Although the Lightning had a slight advantage according to the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team (54.4% chance of winning the series), home ice advantage proved too powerful, as the Rangers won decisively 6-2.  Filip Chytil scored twice and Igor Shesterkin made 37 saves in net to lead New York to their seventh straight home playoff victory.  With the win, we’ve now calculated that the Rangers are more likely to win the series, with a 62.1% chance of doing so.

Tonight, Edmonton travels to Colorado to play the Avalanche.  Colorado won the first game of the series, and we’re now giving Colorado  76.9% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6

• NY Rangers leads series 1-0
• NY Rangers now has a 62.1% chance of winning the series, up from 45.6%

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning (▲16.5)
  • In 4 games: 11.7% (▲5.5)
  • In 5 games: 19.4% (▲6.7)
  • In 6 games: 15.1% (▲3.1)
  • In 7 games: 15.9% (▲1.3)
• Tampa Bay has a 37.9% chance of winning (▼16.5)
  • In 7 games: 14.1% (▲1.2)
  • In 6 games: 15.6% (▼2.3)
  • In 5 games: 8.3% (▼5.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.6)

Today’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton at Colorado

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 62.1%, Tampa Bay 37.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 11.7%
  • In 5 games: 19.4%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 37.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
  • In 6 games: 15.6%
  • In 5 games: 8.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 76.9%, Edmonton 23.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 19.3%
  • In 5 games: 25.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.3%
  • In 5 games: 4.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

The Western Conference Finals have started, and what a lot of scoring!  Edmonton visited Colorado, and in a real barn-burner, Colorado held off the Oilers and won 8-6!  In what has been billed as a showdown between the two best offensive players in the league, Nathan MacKinnon for Colorado and Connor McDavid for Edmonton, both players scored one goal, while McDavid assisted on two others to MacKinnon’s one assist.  13 different players scored in this game, with only the Avalanche’s J.T. Compher scoring more than once (he potted two).

Colorado is the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, and they are our favourite to win this series.  After winning this first game, we’ve now calculated that they have a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up 12.8% points from before this game.

In tonight’s game, the Eastern Conference Finals begin, with two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning travelling to New York to face the Rangers.  Although Tampa Bay hasn’t beat the Rangers in their three meetings this year, we’re giving the Lightning the edge in the series, 54.4% to 45.6%.  We’ll see how those numbers hold up after tonight’s game!

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado now has a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up from 64.1%

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning (▲12.8)
  • In 4 games: 19.3% (▲7.3)
  • In 5 games: 25.9% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▲0.9)
  • In 7 games: 14.7% (▼1.4)
• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning (▼12.8)
  • In 7 games: 9.7% (▼0.8)
  • In 6 games: 9.3% (▼3.3)
  • In 5 games: 4.0% (▼4.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.6)

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

• Series tied 0-0
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 45.6%, Tampa Bay 54.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 45.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 6.2%
  • In 5 games: 12.7%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.9%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 9.6%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 76.9%, Edmonton 23.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
• defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 19.3%
  • In 5 games: 25.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.3%
  • In 5 games: 4.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs have ended, and we’re on to the Conference Finals!  4 teams left, battling for that hallowed Cup.

In the Eastern Conference, no top-seeded team advanced to the Conference Final.  In the Atlantic Division, Tampa Bay surprised top-seeded Florida with a four game sweep.  Maybe it wasn’t so much of a surprise, as Tampa Bay is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion.  In the Metropolitan Division, the New York Rangers needed seven games to beat the that division’s top seed, Carolina.

Over in the Western Conference, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, Colorado, beat St. Louis in six games, becoming the only top seed to advance to the Conference Finals.  And in the Pacific Division, Edmonton surprised top-seeded Calgary in just 5 games to win their division.

Here’s a quick summary of the second round:

Eastern Conference:

• Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay (3rd) defeated Florida (1st) in 4 games
• Metropolitan Division: NY Rangers (2nd) defeated Carolina (1st) in 7 games

Western Conference:

• Central Division: Colorado (1st) defeated St. Louis (3rd) in 6 games
• Pacific Division: Edmonton (2nd) defeated Calgary (1st) in 5 games

Although the 2nd round of the playoffs have already started, I wasn’t able to get my playoff preview done because I had such crappy internet access on the cruise ship.  But, better late than never — here’s the McDonald NHL Power Ratings 2nd Round Playoff Preview!  You can also think of the 2nd Round as the Division Finals.

So, there’s four teams left in the playoff hunt.  We’ve run our extensive analyses and tweaked our algorithms, and have determined the following ratings and rankings of these last four teams:

Rank    Team                          Rating
 1       Colorado Avalanche            1635
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           1603
 3       Edmonton Oilers               1589
 4       New York Rangers              1581

Once again, we’re giving Colorado the best chance of winning their series, as we’ve calculated they have a 64.1% chance of winning their series over Edmonton.  In the East, our favourites are Tampa Bay, who have a 54.4% chance of beating the Rangers.  54.4 to 45.6 — that[‘s not much of a difference!  Here’s the chances we’ve calculated of each team winning the Stanley Cup:

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

The final two stats of interesting: we’ve calculated that there’s a 57.1% chance of a Western Conference team winning the Stanley Cup (up from 53.3% after the first round), and a 17.4% chance of a Canadian team winning it all (down from 18.9% after the first round).

Here’s our summary!

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 45.6%, Tampa Bay 54.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 45.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 6.2%
  • In 5 games: 12.7%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.9%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 9.6%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 64.1%, Edmonton 35.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
• defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 64.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.0%
  • In 5 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 16.1%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Edmonton has a 35.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.5%
  • In 6 games: 12.6%
  • In 5 games: 8.1%
  • In 4 games: 4.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

The last game of the second round went last night.  Expecting an exciting Game 7, I was disappointed, as the New York Rangers easily defeated Carolina 6-2.  Goalie Igor Shesterkin was the star of the game for the Rangers, as he made 37 saves and shut down the Hurricanes early.  Chris Kreider scored two goals to lead the Rangers offense.  With the win, New York wins the series 4 games to 3, and will move on to face the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

The next round of the playoffs begins tonight, with Edmonton travelling to Colorado to start the Western Conference final.  The Eastern Conference final starts on Wednesday.  See the McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Preview for details of the next round!

Yesterday’s Game

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 6 at Carolina 2

• NY Rangers wins series 4-3

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 30: NY Rangers 6 at Carolina 2

Today’s Game

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts)

Edmonton at Colorado

• Series tied 0-0
• Colorado has a 64.1% chance of winning the series

Second Round Playoff Summary

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 30: NY Rangers 6 at Carolina 2

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

 

There was a single game in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs last night, with Carolina in New York to face the Rangers.  The Rangers needed a win, down 3 games to 2 in the best of 7 series, and they came through, winning 5-2 in front of their home crowd to force a Game 7 in Carolina on Monday.

The story of this series is Home Sweet Home — every game has been won by the home team.  In fact, the Rangers have won 6 straight home games, a Ranger team record for consecutive home playoff wins in one season, and Carolina became the first team in NHL history to lose their first six road games in a postseason.  Despite going 0-6 on the road, the Hurricanes are 7-0 at home in these playoffs!  They’ll be glad to head home.

The series wraps up on Monday night.  As the Hurricanes are playing at home, the boys in the back room have calculated that Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning the game and the series.  The winner of the series will face Tampa Bay in the Eastern Conference finals starting on Wednesday night, with Tampa Bay being on the road.  The Western Conference finals start on Tuesday, with Edmonton visiting Colorado.

Yesterday’s Game

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5

• Series tied 3-3
• Carolina now has a 58.0% chance of winning the series, down from 78.6%

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning (▼20.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼48.9)
  • In 7 games: 58.0% (▲28.4)
• NY Rangers has a 42.0% chance of winning (▲20.6)
  • In 7 games: 42.0% (▲20.6)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Tomorrow’s Game

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Carolina

• Series tied 3-3
• Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Carolina 58.0%, NY Rangers 42.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 58.0%
• NY Rangers has a 42.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 42.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.

There was a single game last night in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs, with Colorado travelling to St. Louis.  Colorado held a 3 games to 2 lead in the best of 7 series.  After a hard-fought battle, the game was tied 2-2 with just seconds remaining, when Darren Helm scored with 5.6 seconds left to win the game, and the series, for Colorado.  J.T. Compher scored the other two goals for the Avalanche, who are the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team.  They move on to the Western Conference final, where they will face the Edmonton Oilers.  Game 1 goes on Tuesday, May 31st, in Colorado.

There is only a single game tonight, with Game 6 in the only remaining series in the second round of the playoffs.  Carolina visit Madison Square Gardens to face the New York Rangers, with a 3-2 series lead.  We’re giving the Rangers the slightest of edges in tonight’s game (51.1% chance of winning), but we’ve calculated that the Hurricanes have a 78.6% chance of winning the series.  If Carolina wins tonight, there won’t be another NHL Playoff game until Tuesday when the Western Conference final starts, but if the Rangers win, Game 7 of this series will be played on Monday, May 30th.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

• Colorado wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

Today’s Game

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina at NY Rangers

• Carolina leads series 3-2
• Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 78.6%, NY Rangers 21.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.9%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• NY Rangers has a 21.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 21.4%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.

There were two games in the NHL Playoffs last night.  In the first game, the New York Rangers travelled to Carolina, with the series tied 2 games apiece.  Carolina used the home ice to their advantage in a 3-1 win, completely shutting down the Rangers, holding them to only 17 shots.  The Hurricanes have now won all of their home games during the playoffs.  With a 3-2 series lead, we’ve now calculated that Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning the series, up from 57.1%.  The next game goes Saturday night in New York, and we’re giving the Rangers the slightest of edges in that game, with a 51.1% chance of winning.

In the other game, THE BATTLE OF ALBERTA!  Calgary hosted Edmonton, with the Oilers leading the series 3 games to 1.  Connor McDavid was the big hero for Edmonton, again, as he scored 5:03 into overtime to give Edmonton a 5-4 win and a series victory.  Leon Draisaitl assisted on 4 of the Edmonton goals, and he and McDavid lead the playoffs in points, both having scored 7 goals and assisting on 19 others.  Draisaitl now has scored 3 or more points in five straight playoff games, an NHL record.  Calgary lead 1-0 after the first period, and scored 5 minutes into the second to go up 2-0, but Edmonton battled back to tie the game by the midpoint of the second period.  And then, things went crazy!  Edmonton scored at 14:57, 15 seconds later, Calgary tied it up again, then took the lead 16 seconds after that, and finally, Edmonton took 40 more seconds to tie it up again!  4 goals in 1 minute 11 seconds is an NHL playoff record.  That was all the scoring for the rest of regulation, and then Edmonton won it in OT.  Edmonton moves on to face the winner of the Colorado / St. Louis series in the Conference Finals.

Speaking of that series, the next game goes tonight, with Colorado visiting St. Louis.  Colorado has a 49.0% chance of finishing off the series tonight, and a 79.1% chance of winning the series overall.

Yesterday’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3

• Carolina leads series 3-2
• Carolina now has a 78.6% chance of winning the series, up from 57.1%

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning (▲21.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.9% (▲20.0)
  • In 7 games: 29.6% (▲1.4)
• NY Rangers has a 21.4% chance of winning (▼21.5)
  • In 7 games: 21.4% (▲0.9)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼22.5)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

• Edmonton wins series 4-1

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

Today’s Games

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado at St. Louis

• Colorado leads series 3-2
• Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 78.6%, NY Rangers 21.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.9%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• NY Rangers has a 21.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 21.4%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 79.1%, St. Louis 20.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 49.0%
  • In 7 games: 30.1%
• St. Louis has a 20.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.

There was a single game in the NHL Playoffs last night.  Colorado hosted St. Louis, and held a 3-1 games lead in the series.  Colorado came out strong, leading 2-0 after the first period, both goals courtesy of Nathan MacKinnon, then extending that lead to 3-0 early in the second.  Then, St. Louis came storming back, scoring the next three goals to even things up with 5 minutes left in the game.  Nathan MacKinnon wasn’t done yet as he scored his hat trick at 17:14 of the third on a one-man end-to-end rush, and Colorado thought the game was in the bag.  Wait a minute, said St. Louis, as Robert Thomas scored his second goal of the game to tie things up again with 56 seconds left in the game.  Nobody was able to score in the remainder of regulation time, but at 3:38 of the first overtime period, Tyler Bozak blinked the light to win the game for St. Louis and extend the series to at least a sixth game.

Colorado is still a strong McDonald NHL Power Ratings strong favourite to win this series, as we’re giving them a 79.1% chance of winning the series, although that’s down from 92.3% after Game 4.  We are giving them less than a 50% chance of winning Game 6, as St. Louis is our 51/49 favourite in that contest.

Two games tonight: the New York Rangers travel to Carolina with that series tied 2 games apiece, and Calgary hosts Edmonton, with the Oilers holding a 3-1 lead in that series.  With a victory tonight at home, Edmonton would move on to the Conference Finals — we’re giving them a 47.0% chance of doing that tonight, but an 86.5% chance of winning it overall.

Yesterday’s Games

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)

• Colorado leads series 3-2
• Colorado now has a 79.1% chance of winning the series, down from 92.3%

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning (▼13.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼63.0)
  • In 6 games: 49.0% (▲30.9)
  • In 7 games: 30.1% (▲18.9)
• St. Louis has a 20.9% chance of winning (▲13.2)
  • In 7 games: 20.9% (▲13.2)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Carolina

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina has a 57.1% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton at Calgary

• Edmonton leads series 3-1
• Edmonton has a 86.5% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 57.1%, NY Rangers 42.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 57.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 28.9%
  • In 7 games: 28.2%
• NY Rangers has a 42.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.5%
  • In 6 games: 22.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 79.1%, St. Louis 20.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 49.0%
  • In 7 games: 30.1%
• St. Louis has a 20.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 13.5%, Edmonton 86.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton at Calgary
• May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 13.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.5%
• Edmonton has a 86.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 47.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.