We’re just over half way in the CFL season, and Winnipeg, although still the odds-on favourite to win the Grey Cup, no longer looks like a sure thing with British Columbia chomping on their heels. The East, despite being by far the weaker division, is very close, and any team that makes it to the Grey Cup has a chance of winning it.
But on to this week’s games. There were two doubleheaders this weekend, one on Friday and another on Saturday. In Friday’s first game, the worst team in the West faced the worst team in the East. As might be expected, Edmonton defeated Ottawa 30-12. Although Ottawa led 12-9 at the half, Edmonton exploded for 21 unanswered points in the second half for the victory. There were no real standout players in this game, other than Ottawa kicker Lewis Ward who kicked two rouges in the game. That’s pretty sad to be the highlight.
The second game on Friday saw British Columbia head to Saskatchewan for a rematch of last week’s game. Different location, same result, as BC defeated Saskatchewan 28-10. Nathan Rourke, BC’s quarterback, had another standout game, going 22 for 31 for 375 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 63 more yards. Unfortunately for BC, he got hurt in the fourth quarter and looks like he’ll be needing surgery. It will be interesting to see if BC can continue their strong season without their star quarterback. For BC’s receiving corps, Lucky Whitehead had nine catches for 136 yards and a touchdown, and Dominique Rhymes had six catches of his own for 127 yards. Rider starting QB Cody Fajardo was looking unimpressive, and was pulled in the second quarter in favour of Mason Fine. We’ll see who gets the start next week for Saskatchewan.
On Saturday, the day started with a tilt between Hamilton and Montreal in Montreal. Although the Tiger-Cats led 25-18 after three quarters, Montreal came back to defeat Hamilton 29-28. Montreal kicker David Cote split the uprights with a 48-yard field goal as time ran out to give the Als the victory. At QB, Trevor Harris led Montreal, going 24 for 31 for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception. On the other side of the ball, Matt Shiltz also had an impressive game, going 27 for 39 for 303 yards and two touchdowns.
In the final game of the weekend, Calgary headed out to Toronto to face the Argonauts. In a close contest, Calgary came out the victors, defeating Toronto 22-19. Behind 19-10 after late in the third quarter, Calgary’s defense came up big, holding Toronto scoreless the rest of the way, as well as scoring a 62 yard pick-six touchdown. Jake Maier, who replaced Bo Levi Mitchell as quarterback at the halfway point for Calgary, went 14 for 18 for 149 yards but one interception, and Shawn Bane led the receivers with four catches for 129 yards. For the Argos, McLeod Bethel-Thompson went 27 for 43 for 276 yards and an interception, and A.J. Ouellette caught 7 of those passes for 92 yards.
Week 11 Results
Edmonton 30 at Ottawa 12
British Columbia 28 at Saskatchewan 10
Hamilton 28 at Montreal 29
Calgary 22 at Toronto 19
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
Top team Winnipeg was idle this week, but are so far ahead in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings that they continue to be ranked #1. British Columbia continues their climb up the ratings, remaining number 2 in the rankings, but with the loss of quarterback Nathan Rourke, we’ll see if they can continue their strong run. Calgary and Saskatchewan round out the top 4, as all top 4 teams are from the West. Toronto, the top team in the East, dropped below the 1500 average rating mark, but continue to hold 5th spot. The only change in the rankings saw Montreal and Hamilton swap places, and Montreal is now just 1 rating point behind Toronto. Montreal and Toronto are tied for first in the East, although Toronto has one game in hand. Edmonton remains in 8th, and lowly Ottawa remains the lowest-ranked team, once again dropping below the 1400 point “stink line.”
| Ranking |
Team |
Rating |
Record |
| 1 |
Winnipeg |
1619 |
9-1, 1st West |
| 2 |
British Columbia |
1558 (▲14) |
8-1, 2nd West |
| 3 |
Calgary |
1552 (▲13) |
6-3, 3rd West |
| 4 |
Saskatchewan |
1510 (▼13) |
5-5, 4th West |
| 5 |
Toronto |
1491 (▼13) |
4-5, T-1st East |
| 6 (▲1) |
Montreal |
1490 (▲11) |
4-6, T-1st East |
| 7 (▼1) |
Hamilton |
1473 (▼11) |
3-7, 3rd East |
| 8 |
Edmonton |
1441 (▲14) |
3-7, 5th West |
| 9 |
Ottawa |
1389 (▼13) |
1-8, 4th East |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, although British Columbia is slowly closing the gap. We’re giving Winnipeg a 35% chance of winning it all, and BC a 16% chance, which has moved the Lions up to our second-favoured team. Toronto has the best chance from the East, with a 13% chance, although Montreal is just behind at 12%. Saskatchewan, who will be hosting the Grey Cup this year, have seen their chances drop to 7%, with Calgary third-favourite from the West at 11%. Hamilton can’t be counted out of the East, although we figure they’ve only got a 5% chance of winning it. Rounding out the list are Edmonton and Ottawa, both with just a 1% chance.
Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 2% from last week’s report. We’ve also determined that there’s an 82% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (same as last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (also same as last week).
| Grey Cup Ranking |
Team |
Rating |
Win Grey Cup |
| 1 |
Winnipeg |
1619 |
35% (▼1) |
| 2 (▲1) |
British Columbia |
1558 |
16% (▲2) |
| 3 (▼1) |
Toronto |
1491 |
13% (▼3) |
| 4 (▲2) |
Montreal |
1490 |
12% (▲4) |
| 5 (▼1) |
Calgary |
1552 |
11% (▲2) |
| 6 (▼2) |
Saskatchewan |
1510 |
7% (▼2) |
| 7 |
Hamilton |
1473 |
5% (▼2) |
| T-8 (▲1) |
Edmonton |
1441 |
1% (▲1) |
| T-8 |
Ottawa |
1389 |
1% |
Our Full Predictions
Here’s our full predictions.
| Team |
Rating |
Make Playoffs |
Host Playoff Game |
Win Division |
Make Division Final |
Make Grey Cup |
Win Grey Cup |
Winnipeg
9-1,
1st in West |
1619 |
>99% |
95% |
71% |
88% |
54% |
35% |
British Columbia
8-1,
2nd in West |
1558 |
>99% |
77% |
25% |
63% |
27% |
16% |
Toronto
4-5,
T-1st in East |
1491 |
81% |
77% |
47% |
65% |
35% |
13% |
Montreal
4-6,
T-1st in East |
1490 |
83% |
78% |
40% |
62% |
32% |
12% |
Calgary
6-3,
3rd in West |
1552 |
97% |
26% |
4% |
48% |
19% |
11% |
Saskatchewan
5-5,
4th in West |
1510 |
73% |
2% |
<1% |
34% |
14% |
7% |
Hamilton
3-7,
3rd in East |
1473 |
45% |
38% |
12% |
30% |
14% |
5% |
Edmonton
3-7,
5th in West |
1441 |
12% |
<1% |
<1% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
Ottawa
1-8,
4th in East |
1389 |
8% |
7% |
2% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
Week 12 Game Predictions
Thursday: Calgary (34%) at Winnipeg (65%)
Friday: Hamilton (40%) at Toronto (59%)
Friday: Saskatchewan (36%) at British Columbia (63%)
Saturday: Ottawa (36%) at Edmonton (63%)
I haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!