Another week closer to the Stanley Cup playoffs! There was little change in the top 5 in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week, with all five teams in the top 5 still in the top 5. The only change was that the New York Rangers and the Tampa Bay Lightning swapping spots, with New York now ranked 3rd and Tampa Bay ranked 4th.
The top ranked team continues to be Boston, who went 3-0-0 and saw their McDonald NHL Power Ratings rating increase by 9 points, up to 1637. They beat 7th-ranked Dallas in overtime, then had regulation wins against 19th-ranked Nashville and the also-19th-ranked New York Islanders. We’ve got them pegged as shoe-ins for the playoffs, with a greater than 99% chance of making it, as well as an 88% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, up 5% from last week. They continue to be our favourites to win the Stanley Cup, with a 21% chance, up 3% from last week.
The number 2 team in our rankings is Carolina again this week. They also went 3-0-0, with home-and-home regulation wins against 21st-ranked Washington and a home win against 29th-ranked Montreal. With their strong week, they gained 15 rating points, which moved them into the rarefied air of a rating over 1600, currently sitting at 1603. We’ve calculated that they have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 11% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 13% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
The New York Rangers moved into 3rd in our rankings after going 2-0-1 this week on a Western Canada road trip. They started the week with a regulation victory over 26th-ranked Vancouver, then needed a shootout to beat 6th-ranked Edmonton, and finished the week with an overtime loss to 13th-ranked Calgary. They’ve got a 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, but less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Tampa Bay dropped down to 4th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings rankings, going 1-1-1 this week, with their only victory coming in a shootout against 11th-ranked Colorado. Their other two games saw them lose in a shootout to 27th-ranked Arizona and in regulation time to 12th-ranked Vegas. Still, we’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs and a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, although the latter is down 2% from last week, Also down 2% is their chances of winning the President’s Trophy, as we’re now giving them less than a 1% chance of finishing with the best regular season record.
Rounding out the top 5 is Toronto. They went 2-1-0 in a weak opponent week, splitting a pair of games against 31st-ranked Chicago, and having a resounding victory over 29th-ranked Montreal in a classic Hockey Night In Canada showdown. They also have a 99% chance of making the playoffs and a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, as well as less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
The biggest upward mover this week was Columbus, who went 2-1-1 to pick up 17 rating points and move them above the 1400 rating point stink line. They had regulation victories over 15th-ranked Winnipeg and 7th-ranked Dallas, a regulation loss to 7th-ranked New Jersey, and an overtime loss to 27th-ranked Arizona. Despite moving above the stink line, they’ve still got less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
The week’s worst performance, ratings-wise, was by Washington, who went 0-3-0 in a tough week. They lost both ends of a home-and-home series with 2nd-ranked Carolina, as well as suffered a loss to 14th-ranked Florida at home. This performance saw their chances of making the playoffs halved, going from 47% last week to 23% this week. We’re also giving them less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
And speaking of playoffs, let’s take a look at teams’ chances of making them. In the Eastern Conference, we’ve got 6 teams that we’re very confident will make the playoffs:
Boston Bruins >99% Carolina Hurricanes >99% New Jersey Devils >99% New York Rangers 99% Tampa Bay Lightning 99% Toronto Maple Leafs 99%
Chasing the last two playoff spots in the East are the following teams, with us not bothering to list the teams that we don’t think have any chance of making the playoffs:
Pittsburgh Penguins 59% Buffalo Sabres 35% Florida Panthers 28% New York Islanders 24% Washington Capitals 24% Detroit Red Wings 21% Ottawa Senators 11%
And in the Western Conference, there’s also 6 teams that we’re very confident of (at least 90% chance of making the playoffs):
Dallas Stars 96% Seattle Kraken 95% Vegas Golden Knights 95% Los Angeles Kings 93% Colorado Avalanche 90% Edmonton Oilers 90%
And battling for the last two spots are:
Winnipeg Jets 87% Minnesota Wild 63% Calgary Flames 61% Nashville Predators 26%
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Boston Bruins (1637, ▲9)
Record: 42-8-5, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 88% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 21% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 14: Won in OT 3-2 @ Dallas Stars (7th, 1543)
- February 16: Won 5-0 @ Nashville Predators (19th, 1495)
- February 18: Won 6-2 vs. New York Islanders (19th, 1495)
Next week:
- February 20: vs. Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1478)
- February 23: @ Seattle Kraken (10th, 1533)
- February 25: @ Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1437)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1603, ▲15)
Record: 37-10-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 11%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 14: Won 3-2 @ Washington Capitals (21st, 1485)
- February 16: Won 6-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1416)
- February 18: Won 4-1 vs. Washington Capitals (21st, 1485)
Next week:
- February 21: vs. St. Louis Blues (24th, 1466)
- February 24: vs. Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1478)
- February 25: vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1378)
3. New York Rangers ▲1 (1578, ▲5)
Record: 33-14-9, 3rd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%
Last week: 2-0-1
- February 15: Won 6-4 @ Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1437)
- February 17: Won in SO 5-4 @ Edmonton Oilers (6th, 1556)
- February 18: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Calgary Flames (13th, 1522)
Next week:
- February 20: vs. Winnipeg Jets (15th, 1516)
- February 23: @ Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1481)
- February 25: @ Washington Capitals (21st, 1485)
- February 26: vs. Los Angeles Kings (9th, 1538)
4. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1569, ▼10)
Record: 35-17-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼2)
Last week: 1-1-1
- February 14: Won in SO 4-3 @ Colorado Avalanche (11th, 1531)
- February 15: Lost in SO 1-0 @ Arizona Coyotes (27th, 1432)
- February 18: Lost 5-4 @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1529)
Next week:
- February 21: vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1378)
- February 23: vs. Buffalo Sabres (18th, 1498)
- February 25: @ Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1481)
- February 26: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (17th, 1510)
5. Toronto Maple Leafs (1562, ▼3)
Record: 34-15-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 2-1-0
- February 15: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1396)
- February 18: Won 5-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1416)
- February 19: Lost 5-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1396)
Next week:
- February 21: @ Buffalo Sabres (18th, 1498)
- February 24: vs. Minnesota Wild (16th, 1511)
- February 26: @ Seattle Kraken (10th, 1533)
Overall Ratings
1 Boston Bruins 1637 (▲9) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1603 (▲15) 3 New York Rangers (▲1) 1578 (▲5) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1569 (▼10) 5 Toronto Maple Leafs 1562 (▼3) 6 Edmonton Oilers 1556 (▼3) 7 (tie) Dallas Stars 1543 (▼10) 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) 1543 (▲11) 9 Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 1538 (▲8) 10 Seattle Kraken (▲3) 1533 (▲13) 11 Colorado Avalanche (▲4) 1531 (▲15) 12 Vegas Golden Knights (▲3) 1529 (▲13) 13 Calgary Flames (▼3) 1522 (▼9) 14 Florida Panthers (▼2) 1520 (▼6) 15 Winnipeg Jets (▼7) 1516 (▼17) 16 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 1511 (▼2) 17 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 1510 (▼8) 18 Buffalo Sabres (▲3) 1498 (▲7) 19 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) 1495 (▲2) 19 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 1495 (▼16) 21 Washington Capitals (▼2) 1485 (▼20) 22 Detroit Red Wings (▲2) 1481 (▲14) 23 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 1478 (▲5) 24 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1466 (▲2) 25 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 1459 (▼13) 26 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1437 (▼5) 27 Arizona Coyotes (▲1) 1432 (▲14) 28 San Jose Sharks (▼2) 1427 (▼19) 29 Montreal Canadiens 1416 (▼1) 30 Columbus Blue Jackets 1411 (▲17) 31 Chicago Blackhawks 1396 (▲5) 32 Anaheim Ducks 1378 (▼11)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 76% (▲7) 2 New Jersey Devils 16% (▼4) 3 New York Rangers 8% (▼3) 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins 99% (▲3) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 1% (▼2) 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs <1% (▼1)
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 48% (▼10) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 27% (▲18) 3 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 19% (▼7) 4 Minnesota Wild 5% 5 Nashville Predators 1% (▼2) 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1%
Pacific Division
1 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) 30% (▲5) 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 30% (▲6) 3 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 23% (▲5) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▼3) 14% (▼12) 5 Calgary Flames 3% (▼4) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) >99% (▲1) 3 New York Rangers 99% (▲1) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 59% (▼7) 5 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) 24% (▲3) 5 (tie) Washington Capitals 24% (▼23) 7 Philadelphia Flyers 1% (▼2) 8 Columbus Blue Jackets <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins >99% 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 99% 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 99% 4 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 35% (▲10) 5 Florida Panthers (▼1) 28% (▼1) 6 Detroit Red Wings 21% (▲11) 7 Ottawa Senators 11% (▲6) 8 Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 96% (▼2) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 90% (▲18) 3 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 87% (▼5) 4 Minnesota Wild 63% (▲1) 5 Nashville Predators 26% (▼23) 6 St. Louis Blues 4% (▼1) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) 95% (▲6) 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 95% (▲7) 3 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 93% (▲8) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▼3) 90% (▼1) 5 Calgary Flames 61% (▼7) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Boston Bruins 88% (▲5) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 11% 3 New Jersey Devils 1% (▼1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Boston Bruins 21% (▲3) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 13% (▲3) 3 New York Rangers 8% 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 6% (▼1) 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 6% (▼2) 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 6% 7 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 5% (▼2) 7 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 5% (▲1) 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲2) 4% (▲1) 9 (tie) New Jersey Devils 4% 9 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2) 4% (▲1) 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 4% (▲1) 13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2) 3% 13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼5) 3% (▼2) 15 Minnesota Wild 2% 16 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1% 16 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 1% 16 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) 1% 16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 1% (▼1) 16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1% (▼1) 21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼3) <1% (▼1)