Category: predictions

This week’s McDonald NHL Power Ratings are out a little later than usual, but here they are!

Boston had a strong week (3-0-0 against the Capitals and Flyers) to move into first in the rankings.  Tampa Bay also went 3-0-0, but because they played against weaker teams, their rating didn’t increase as much as Boston’s, so they’ve dropped into 2nd place.  The Leafs cracked the top 5 for the first time this year, possibly for the first time since I’ve done the ratings.  Other big movers included Winnipeg (12th, 2-0-1, up 12 points), Arizona (16th, 2-1-0, up 14 points), and the Rangers (19th, 2-0-0, up 15 points).

Boston and Tampa Bay are still the favourites to win the Stanley Cup.  We give both teams a 9% chance of winning.  Ottawa and Detroit are the longshots, at only a 7% and 4% chance of even making the playoffs.

On the downside, big droppers were Washington (9th, 0-3-0, down 24 points), Vancouver (26th, 0-4-0, down 23 points), and Los Angeles (27th, 0-3-0, down 19 points).

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1567, ▲17)

Record: 8-1-2, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲13)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 1: Won 5-3 @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
• February 3: Won in OT 4-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1545)
• February 5: Won 2-1 @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1545)

Next week:

• February 10: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
• February 12: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
• February 13: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1503)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1563, ▲13)

Record: 7-1-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 1: Won 5-2 vs. Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 3: Won 5-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1405)
• February 5: Won 3-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1405)

Next week:

• February 8: @ Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 9: @ Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 11: @ Florida Panthers (13th, 1508)
• February 13: @ Florida Panthers (13th, 1508)

3. Colorado Avalanche (1552, ▲6)

Record: 7-3-1, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 82% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-0-0

• February 2: Won 2-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (21th, 1489)
• February 4: Postponed vs. Minnesota Wild (21th, 1489)
• February 6: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (7th, 1530)
• February 7: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (7th, 1530)

Next week:

• February 9: vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1500)
• February 11: vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1500)
• February 14: @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1543)

4 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers ▼1 (1545, ▼1)

Record: 8-3-2, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-1-1

• February 3: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1567)
• February 5: Lost 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1567)
• February 7: Won 7-4 @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)

Next week:

• February 9: @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
• February 11: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1497)
• February 13: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1497)
• February 14: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)

4 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲3 (1545, ▲11)

Record: 9-2-1, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 93% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 4: Won 7-3 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
• February 6: Won 5-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)

Next week:

• February 8: vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
• February 10: @ Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1515)
• February 13: vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1515)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1567 (▲17)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1563 (▲13)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            1552 (▲6)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1545 (▼1)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1545 (▲11)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1543 (▲10)
 7       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1530 (▼14)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1518 (▲1)
 9       Washington Capitals (▼3)      1516 (▼24)
10 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1515
10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       1515 (▲9)
12       Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            1513 (▲12)
13       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1508 (▼6)
14       New York Islanders (▲2)       1503 (▲6)
15       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3)    1501 (▼9)
16       Arizona Coyotes (▲7)          1500 (▲14)
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3)           1497 (▼5)
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1497
19       New York Rangers (▲6)         1494 (▲15)
20       Edmonton Oilers               1492 (▼2)
21       Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1489 (▼6)
22       Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1488 (▲9)
23       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼5)      1482 (▼13)
24       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1477 (▼10)
25       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1474 (▲7)
26       Vancouver Canucks (▼5)        1470 (▼23)
27       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1464 (▼19)
28       San Jose Sharks               1463 (▲2)
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1461
30       Ottawa Senators               1423 (▼2)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1405 (▲3)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           43% (▲14)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19%
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         15% (▼6)
 4       Dallas Stars                  13% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       4% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         4% (▼4)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      2% (▼3)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)            48% (▲22)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           22% (▼4)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼2)      10% (▼17)
 4       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        6%
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       5% (▲1)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         4% (▲2)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      3% (▼4)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           2%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     36% (▲10)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       29% (▲4)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          17% (▼11)
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          6% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild                6% (▼2)
 6       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            3% (▲1)
 7       San Jose Sharks               2%
 8       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1% (▼4)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           45% (▲9)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            25% (▲2)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 18% (▲4)
 4       Calgary Flames                7% (▼4)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          4% (▼2)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1% (▼8)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           88% (▲10)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      72% (▲3)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         65% (▼5)
 4       Dallas Stars                  62% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       39% (▲10)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         39% (▼11)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      29% (▼8)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             4%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins (▲2)            90% (▲13)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      79%
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      57% (▼21)
 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       43% (▲8)
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        43% (▲2)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         34% (▲12)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      32% (▼13)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           22%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     84% (▲9)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            82% (▲5)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          70% (▼9)
 4       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          45% (▲11)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           43% (▼7)
 6       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            30% (▲7)
 7       San Jose Sharks               27% (▲4)
 8       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        19% (▼19)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           93% (▲7)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            85% (▲8)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 78% (▲13)
 4       Calgary Flames                59%
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          49% (▲1)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        29% (▼26)
 7       Ottawa Senators               7% (▼2)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            16% (▲8)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           16% (▲6)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      13% (▲4)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     10% (▲3)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)      6%
 6 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲5)       6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6% (▼2)
 9       Florida Panthers (▼2)         4% (▼3)
10 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             3% (▼2)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6)          3% (▼5)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            3% (▲1)
13       Washington Capitals (▼11)     2% (▼7)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲10)         1% (▲1)
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲10)      1% (▲1)
14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1%
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 9% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           9% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       7%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5)     7% (▲2)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6%
 7       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      4%
 8 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             4%
 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       4%
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         3% (▼1)
12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼8)      3% (▼3)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          2%
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲11)      2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          2%
14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           2%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       2%
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▲11)        2% (▲1)
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        2%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼6)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼6)      1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1% (▼1)
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼10)       1% (▼2)
30 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
30 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

 

I’ve been calculating the “McDonald Power Ratings” in both the CFL and NHL for the last three years, mostly just for myself and my son, but last year, I started posting the NHL ones to my blog.  Unfortunately, the season shut down early, so I stopped doing them, and after the long COVID lay-off, I didn’t think they would be very accurate for last year’s playoffs.  But, I’ve started them again this year, and here’s the first posting for the year!  I’ll be posting the new ratings every Monday.

As more games are being played, the calibration of our internal models is beginning to settle down, so we’re starting to see less big jumps in ratings.  Boston, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia continue to be the top three teams, although Colorado (3-0-1 this week) and St. Louis (3-0-0) both made big moves to round out the top five.

Other big movers this week included Washington (3-0-0, +11 rating points) and Toronto (2-0-1, +16 rating points), although the biggest mover was Vancouver (4-0-0, +27 rating points).

We’re currently predicting that Boston, Colorado, and Tampa Bay have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup (7% chance for each), and Tampa Bay has the best chance of winning the President’s Trophy (10%).

At the bottom end of the scale, Ottawa (ranked 2nd last) and Detroit (ranked last) have less than a 1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Ottawa had the biggest downward move, going 0-4-0 in the last week and dropping a whopping 23 rating points.

In the following rankings, the change indicated is the amount of change from the previous week.

The Top 5

1 (tie). Boston Bruins (1550, ▲5)

Record: 5-1-2, 3rd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 77% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• January 26: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1495)
• January 28: Won 4-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1495)
• January 30: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)

Next week:

• February 1: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)
• February 3: @ Philadelphia Flyers (3rd, 1546)
• February 5: @ Philadelphia Flyers (3rd, 1546)
• February 6: vs. Buffalo Sabres (28th, 1461)

1 (tie). Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1550, ▲6)

Record: 4-1-1, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 78% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-0-1

• January 28: Lost in OT 1-0 @ Carolina Hurricanes (9th, 1517)
• January 30: Won 4-3 vs. Nashville Predators (22th, 1487)

Next week:

• February 1: vs. Nashville Predators (22th, 1487)
• February 3: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1402)
• February 5: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1402)

3 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲4 (1546, ▲18)

Record: 6-3-1, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 77% (▲17)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• January 26: Won 7-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1461)
• January 28: Won 3-0 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1461)
• January 30: Won 5-1 @ Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
• January 31: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)

Next week:

• February 2: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
• February 4: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
• February 6: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1544)
• February 7: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1544)

3 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers (1546, ▲11)

Record: 7-2-1, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79% (▲17)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 26: Won 5-3 @ New Jersey Devils (16th, 1497)
• January 28: Won 3-1 @ New Jersey Devils (16th, 1497)
• January 30: Won in OT 3-2 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1497)
• January 31: Won in OT 4-3 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1497)

Next week:

• February 3: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1550)
• February 5: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1550)
• February 7: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)

5. St. Louis Blues (1544, ▲15)

Record: 6-2-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79% (▲16)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• January 26: Won in SO 5-4 @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1533)
• January 28: Game @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1533) postponed
• January 30: Won 6-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1467)
• January 31: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1467)

Next week:

• February 2: vs. Arizona Coyotes (23th, 1486)
• February 4: vs. Arizona Coyotes (23th, 1486)
• February 6: vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1546)
• February 7: vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1546)

Overall Ratings

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1550 (▲5)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1550 (▲6)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       1546 (▲18)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           1546 (▲11)
 5       St. Louis Blues               1544 (▲15)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1540 (▲11)
 7       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      1534 (▲16)
 8       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     1533 (▼1)
 9       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1517 (▲6)
10       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1515 (▼4)
11       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1514 (▲7)
12       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1510 (▼2)
13       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1506 (▼3)
14       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1502 (▼5)
15       Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1501 (▼2)
16 (tie) New York Islanders            1497 (▼8)
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1497 (▼7)
18 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1495 (▼11)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1495 (▼3)
20       Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          1494 (▼10)
21       Vancouver Canucks (▲7)        1493 (▲27)
22       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1487 (▼8)
23       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1486 (▼2)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1483 (▲3)
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1479 (▲2)
25 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2)         1479 (▼7)
27       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1467 (▼12)
28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1461 (▼2)
28 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1461 (▼10)
30       Ottawa Senators               1425 (▼23)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1402 (▼7)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           29% (▲1)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         21% (▲5)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19% (▲5)
 4       Dallas Stars (▼2)             15% (▼5)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         8% (▼2)
 6       Nashville Predators           5% (▼2)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            3% (▼1)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals (▲1)      27% (▲7)
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            26% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      26% (▲9)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      7% (▼3)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        6% (▼6)
 6       New York Islanders (▼1)       4% (▼7)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           2% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              2% (▼2)

West Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          28% (▲10)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     26% (▼4)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            25% (▲10)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           8% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             5% (▼1)
 6       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          4% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            2% (▼4)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2% (▼3)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      36% (▲12)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       23% (▼4)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 14% (▼3)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           11% (▼6)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        9% (▲6)
 6       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          6% (▼4)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          <1% (▼3)

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           78% (▲2)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         70% (▲10)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      69% (▲10)
 4       Dallas Stars (▼2)             63% (▼3)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         50% (▼4)
 6       Nashville Predators           37% (▼6)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            29% (▼5)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             4% (▼5)

East Division

 1       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      79% (▲17)
 2       Washington Capitals           78% (▲13)
 3       Boston Bruins (▼2)            77% (▲6)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      45% (▼3)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        41% (▼12)
 6       New York Islanders (▼1)       35% (▼14)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           22% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              22% (▼6)

West Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          79% (▲16)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       77% (▲17)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     75% (▼1)
 4       Minnesota Wild                50% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             38% (▲1)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               34% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            23% (▼13)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          23% (▼11)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      86% (▲10)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       77% (▼1)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 65% (▼2)
 4       Calgary Flames                59% (▼7)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        55% (▲25)
 6       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          48% (▼7)
 7       Ottawa Senators               9% (▼18)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           10%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      9% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5)      9% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            8% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5)      8% (▲4)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          8% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              7% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     7% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲5)       6% (▲3)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼6)             5% (▼1)
11 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼8)       5% (▼2)
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           2% (▼2)
13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            2% (▼2)
16 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          1%
16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        1%
16 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1% (▼2)
16 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲4)      1%
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1% (▼2)
16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲12)       1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            7% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       7% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           7%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           6% (▲1)
 8       Vegas Golden Knights (▼6)     5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           4%
 9 (tie) Dallas Stars                  4%
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers              4%
 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            4%
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    3%
13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲14)       3% (▲2)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            3% (▼1)
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4)          2%
17 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        2%
17 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           2% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)       2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲4)      2%
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      2% (▼1)
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼4)            1% (▼1)
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼4)       1% (▼1)
25 (tie) New York Rangers (▼4)         1% (▼1)
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1%
30 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
30 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼3)          <1% (▼1)

Philadelphia has continued their winning ways, increasing their rating by 18 points.  I’ve now got them at a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They’ve got two tough games coming up though: #1 Boston on Tuesday, and #2 Tampa Bay on Thursday.

Boston is still the favourite, with a 15% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, down 1% from last week.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1595, ▼2)

Record: 43-14-12, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 79% (▲11)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 15% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 3: Won 2-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)
• March 5: Won in OT 2-1 @ Florida Panthers (17th, 1506)
• March 7: Lost 5-3 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)

Next week:

• March 10: @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1569)
• March 13: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1435)
• March 14: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1511)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning (1584, ▲1)

Record: 43-20-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 3: Lost 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
• March 5: Won 4-0 vs. Montreal Canadiens (28th, 1446)
• March 7: Won 5-3 @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
• March 8: Lost in SO 5-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)

Next week:

• March 10: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1511)
• March 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1569)
• March 14: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)
• March 15: vs. New Jersey Devils (20th, 1492)

3. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1580, ▼3)

Record: 41-19-8, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13%

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 2: Won 2-1 @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)
• March 4: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1447)
• March 6: Lost 6-3 @ Vancouver Canucks (23rd, 1485)
• March 8: Won 4-3 @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1453)

Next week:

• March 9: @ Los Angeles Kings (26th, 1447)
• March 11: vs. New York Rangers (19th, 1504)
• March 13: vs. Vancouver Canucks (23rd, 1485)
• March 15: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (7th, 1537)

4. Philadelphia Flyers ▲1 (1569, ▲18)

Record: 41-20-7, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 4: Won 5-2 @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1539)
• March 5: Won 4-1 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (14th, 1509)
• March 7: Won 3-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1435)

Next week:

• March 10: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
• March 12: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)
• March 14: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1516)
• March 15: vs. Edmonton Oilers (8th, 1527)

5. St. Louis Blues ▼1 (1558, ▲6)

Record: 41-18-10, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 3: Won 3-1 @ New York Rangers (19th, 1504)
• March 6: Lost 4-2 @ New Jersey Devils (20th, 1492)
• March 8: Won 2-0 @ Chicago Black Hawks (24th, 1459)

Next week:

• March 9: vs. Florida Panthers (17th, 1506)
• March 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1447)
• March 13: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1453)
• March 15: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1424)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1595 (▼2)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           1584 (▲1)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1580 (▼3)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1569 (▲18)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1558 (▲6)
 6       Washington Capitals           1539
 7       Vegas Golden Knights          1537 (▲7)
 8       Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          1527 (▲8)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1522 (▲2)
10       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1516 (▲3)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4)             1513 (▼17)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲8)            1513 (▲13)
13       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1511 (▼17)
14 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      1509 (▲4)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      1509 (▲2)
16       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1508 (▼5)
17       Florida Panthers (▲3)         1506 (▲7)
18       Calgary Flames (▼3)           1505 (▼3)
19       New York Rangers (▼9)         1504 (▼17)
20       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1492 (▲12)
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1489 (▲3)
21 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6)       1489 (▼19)
23       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        1485 (▼8)
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1459 (▼3)
25       San Jose Sharks               1453 (▼7)
26 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1447 (▲7)
26 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1447 (▲10)
28       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1446
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼3)           1435 (▼17)
30       Ottawa Senators               1424 (▲5)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1348 (▲10)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Washington Capitals           50% (▼12)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           45% (▲23)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▼7)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders            <1% (▼3)
 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         <1%
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 89% (▲8)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           11% (▼8)
 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            53% (▼6)
 2       St. Louis Blues               46% (▲9)
 3 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
 3 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1% (▼4)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           <1%
 3 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          48%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               43% (▲11)
 3 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           4% (▼4)
 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             4% (▼8)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%

Making the Playoffs

Eastern Conference

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 >99%
 1 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      >99% (▲3)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           >99%
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           91% (▲2)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs           71% (▼17)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      69% (▲20)
 8       New York Islanders (▼1)       59% (▼20)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets         47% (▲6)
10       Florida Panthers (▲1)         41% (▲19)
11       New York Rangers (▼1)         21% (▼14)
12 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)
12 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
12 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)
12 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
12 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%

Western Conference

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               >99%
 3 (tie) Dallas Stars                  97% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          97% (▲7)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     97% (▲2)
 6       Calgary Flames (▲1)           70% (▲3)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           59% (▲10)
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        56% (▼17)
 9       Nashville Predators (▼1)      53% (▼7)
10       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            42% (▲13)
11       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          25% (▼5)
12       Chicago Blackhawks            2% (▼5)
13 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
13 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 79% (▲11)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           8% (▼5)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            6% (▼4)
 4       St. Louis Blues               4% (▼1)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      2% (▲2)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 15% (▼1)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            13%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           12% (▲1)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      10% (▲3)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          9% (▲1)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     6% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             3% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      3%
11 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      2%
11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    2%
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           2%
11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2%
11 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲9)            2% (▲1)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1%
18 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders (▼5)       1% (▼1)
18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼5)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%