Category: NHL

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – January 31, 2021

I’ve been calculating the “McDonald Power Ratings” in both the CFL and NHL for the last three years, mostly just for myself and my son, but last year, I started posting the NHL ones to my blog.  Unfortunately, the season shut down early, so I stopped doing them, and after the long COVID lay-off, I didn’t think they would be very accurate for last year’s playoffs.  But, I’ve started them again this year, and here’s the first posting for the year!  I’ll be posting the new ratings every Monday.

As more games are being played, the calibration of our internal models is beginning to settle down, so we’re starting to see less big jumps in ratings.  Boston, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia continue to be the top three teams, although Colorado (3-0-1 this week) and St. Louis (3-0-0) both made big moves to round out the top five.

Other big movers this week included Washington (3-0-0, +11 rating points) and Toronto (2-0-1, +16 rating points), although the biggest mover was Vancouver (4-0-0, +27 rating points).

We’re currently predicting that Boston, Colorado, and Tampa Bay have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup (7% chance for each), and Tampa Bay has the best chance of winning the President’s Trophy (10%).

At the bottom end of the scale, Ottawa (ranked 2nd last) and Detroit (ranked last) have less than a 1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Ottawa had the biggest downward move, going 0-4-0 in the last week and dropping a whopping 23 rating points.

In the following rankings, the change indicated is the amount of change from the previous week.

The Top 5

1 (tie). Boston Bruins (1550, ▲5)

Record: 5-1-2, 3rd in East Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 77% (▲6)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

  • January 26: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1495)
  • January 28: Won 4-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1495)
  • January 30: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)

Next week:

  • February 1: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)
  • February 3: @ Philadelphia Flyers (3rd, 1546)
  • February 5: @ Philadelphia Flyers (3rd, 1546)
  • February 6: vs. Buffalo Sabres (28th, 1461)

1 (tie). Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1550, ▲6)

Record: 4-1-1, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 78% (▲2)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 10%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-0-1

  • January 28: Lost in OT 1-0 @ Carolina Hurricanes (9th, 1517)
  • January 30: Won 4-3 vs. Nashville Predators (22th, 1487)

Next week:

  • February 1: vs. Nashville Predators (22th, 1487)
  • February 3: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1402)
  • February 5: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1402)

3 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲4 (1546, ▲18)

Record: 6-3-1, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 77% (▲17)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▲3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

  • January 26: Won 7-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1461)
  • January 28: Won 3-0 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1461)
  • January 30: Won 5-1 @ Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
  • January 31: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)

Next week:

  • February 2: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
  • February 4: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
  • February 6: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1544)
  • February 7: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1544)

3 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers (1546, ▲11)

Record: 7-2-1, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 79% (▲17)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

  • January 26: Won 5-3 @ New Jersey Devils (16th, 1497)
  • January 28: Won 3-1 @ New Jersey Devils (16th, 1497)
  • January 30: Won in OT 3-2 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1497)
  • January 31: Won in OT 4-3 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1497)

Next week:

  • February 3: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1550)
  • February 5: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1550)
  • February 7: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)

5. St. Louis Blues (1544, ▲15)

Record: 6-2-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 79% (▲16)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • January 26: Won in SO 5-4 @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1533)
  • January 28: Game @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1533) postponed
  • January 30: Won 6-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1467)
  • January 31: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1467)

Next week:

  • February 2: vs. Arizona Coyotes (23th, 1486)
  • February 4: vs. Arizona Coyotes (23th, 1486)
  • February 6: vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1546)
  • February 7: vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1546)

Overall Ratings

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1550 (▲5)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1550 (▲6)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       1546 (▲18)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           1546 (▲11)
 5       St. Louis Blues               1544 (▲15)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1540 (▲11)
 7       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      1534 (▲16)
 8       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     1533 (▼1)
 9       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1517 (▲6)
10       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1515 (▼4)
11       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1514 (▲7)
12       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1510 (▼2)
13       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1506 (▼3)
14       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1502 (▼5)
15       Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1501 (▼2)
16 (tie) New York Islanders            1497 (▼8)
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1497 (▼7)
18 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1495 (▼11)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1495 (▼3)
20       Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          1494 (▼10)
21       Vancouver Canucks (▲7)        1493 (▲27)
22       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1487 (▼8)
23       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1486 (▼2)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1483 (▲3)
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1479 (▲2)
25 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2)         1479 (▼7)
27       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1467 (▼12)
28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1461 (▼2)
28 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1461 (▼10)
30       Ottawa Senators               1425 (▼23)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1402 (▼7)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           29% (▲1)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         21% (▲5)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19% (▲5)
 4       Dallas Stars (▼2)             15% (▼5)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         8% (▼2)
 6       Nashville Predators           5% (▼2)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            3% (▼1)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals (▲1)      27% (▲7)
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            26% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      26% (▲9)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      7% (▼3)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        6% (▼6)
 6       New York Islanders (▼1)       4% (▼7)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           2% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              2% (▼2)

West Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          28% (▲10)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     26% (▼4)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            25% (▲10)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           8% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             5% (▼1)
 6       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          4% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            2% (▼4)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2% (▼3)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      36% (▲12)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       23% (▼4)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 14% (▼3)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           11% (▼6)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        9% (▲6)
 6       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          6% (▼4)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          <1% (▼3)

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           78% (▲2)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         70% (▲10)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      69% (▲10)
 4       Dallas Stars (▼2)             63% (▼3)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         50% (▼4)
 6       Nashville Predators           37% (▼6)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            29% (▼5)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             4% (▼5)

East Division

 1       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      79% (▲17)
 2       Washington Capitals           78% (▲13)
 3       Boston Bruins (▼2)            77% (▲6)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      45% (▼3)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        41% (▼12)
 6       New York Islanders (▼1)       35% (▼14)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           22% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              22% (▼6)

West Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          79% (▲16)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       77% (▲17)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     75% (▼1)
 4       Minnesota Wild                50% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             38% (▲1)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               34% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            23% (▼13)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          23% (▼11)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      86% (▲10)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       77% (▼1)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 65% (▼2)
 4       Calgary Flames                59% (▼7)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        55% (▲25)
 6       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          48% (▼7)
 7       Ottawa Senators               9% (▼18)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           10%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      9% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5)      9% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            8% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5)      8% (▲4)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          8% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              7% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     7% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲5)       6% (▲3)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼6)             5% (▼1)
11 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼8)       5% (▼2)
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           2% (▼2)
13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            2% (▼2)
16 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          1%
16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        1%
16 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1% (▼2)
16 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲4)      1%
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1% (▼2)
16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲12)       1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            7% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       7% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           7%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           6% (▲1)
 8       Vegas Golden Knights (▼6)     5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           4%
 9 (tie) Dallas Stars                  4%
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers              4%
 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            4%
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    3%
13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲14)       3% (▲2)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            3% (▼1)
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4)          2%
17 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        2%
17 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           2% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)       2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲4)      2%
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      2% (▼1)
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼4)            1% (▼1)
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼4)       1% (▼1)
25 (tie) New York Rangers (▼4)         1% (▼1)
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1%
30 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
30 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼3)          <1% (▼1)

2021 NHL schedule and results in Excel .xlsx and csv formats

Hockey playerThe post you’re currently reading is about the 2021 NHL schedule.  If you’re looking for the 2023/24 NHL schedule, you can find it in this post. If you want the 2022/23 schedule, it’s in this post.  And the 2021/22 schedule is here.

Here’s a copy of the 2021 NHL schedule and the results of each of the games played so far in Excel .xlsx format, and here’s another copy in CSV format.  They are up-to-date up to last night, and I’ll try to update them each morning through the regular season.

The Excel file consists of 2 worksheets: one contains the original NHL schedule as described in this post; the other, named As-Played Schedule, contains the same contents, with the addition of the scores for each team and whether the game hasn’t been played yet, was won in regulation time, overtime, or in a shootout.  Here’s a quick summary of the columns:

  • Date: the date of the game
  • Start Time (Sask): the game’s start time in Saskatchewan (where I live!)
  • Start Time (ET): the game’s start time in Eastern time (which is the time the NHL website shows)
  • Visitor: the name of the visiting team
  • Score: the visiting team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
  • Home: the name of the home team
  • Score: the home team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
  • Status: one of the following:
    • Scheduled: if the game hasn’t been played yet
    • Regulation: if the game ended in regulation time
    • OT: if the game ended in overtime
    • SO: if the game ended in a shootout

For example, here’s the first couple lines of the worksheet:

In this example, the game was played on January 13, 2021 at 4:30 PM in Saskatchewan and 5:30 PM Eastern time, the home team Philadelphia beat the visiting team Pittsburgh 6-3 in regulation time

Just a brief explanation why I’ve got two time fields in here.  Saskatchewan doesn’t observe Daylight Savings time, so for the first part of the schedule, we have a one-hour time difference from Eastern time, but once the rest of the country leaps forward, we have a two-hour time difference.  Of course, I’m more interested in the time in Saskatchewan, but to make it easier for other people to use, I’ve also included Eastern time.

The CSV file contains only the As-Played worksheet.  It has the same fields as described for the Excel file.  You can easily import this file into Excel or whatever spreadsheet of your choice!

The 2021 NHL Schedule in Excel .xlsx format

Hockey playerNote: If you’re looking for the 2021/22 NHL schedule in Excel or CSV format, you can find it in this post.

Here’s a copy of the 2020/21 NHL schedule in Excel .xlsx format.

In a previous post, I posted a copy of the original 2020/21 NHL schedule in CSV format.  I’ve seen quite a few people looking for a schedule in Excel .xlsx format.  Although you can quite easily import a CSV file into Excel, I thought I might import it myself, apply a little bit of formatting to the file, and make it available, too.  You can get it here.

Update: you might also be interested in a spreadsheet that also contains the results.  You can read about it in this post.

Be aware that this is the schedule as of January 12, 2021.  In my original post, I said that I wouldn’t be surprised if the schedule changes, either due to weather-related game cancellations, or, more likely, changes due to COVID.  Well, that has definitely happened, even last night when the St. Louis Blues and Vegas Golden Knights game was postponed due to COVID.  That is NOT reflected in this schedule; this is the original schedule before any changes were made.

This spreadsheet contains 5 fields.  The first field is the date of the game, the second field is the game’s start time in Saskatchewan (where I live!), the third field is the game’s start time in Eastern Time (which is the time the NHL website shows), the fourth field is the visiting team, and the fifth field is the home team.

Here’s a screenshot of the first few lines of the file:

First two lines of schedule spreadsheet

The first line, obviously, is the header line, giving a brief description of each of the fields.  The second line, and all subsequent lines, list the games in the schedule, one for each game.  For the first game shown here, we can see:

  • the date of the first game is January 13, 2021
  • the game starts at 4:30 p.m. Saskatchewan time
  • the game starts at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time
  • the visiting team is the Pittsburgh Penguins
  • the home team is the Philadelphia Flyers

Just a brief explanation why I’ve got two time fields in here.  Saskatchewan doesn’t observe Daylight Savings time, so for the first part of the schedule, we have a one-hour time difference from Eastern time, but once the rest of the country leaps forward, we have a two-hour time difference.  Of course, I’m more interested in the time in Saskatchewan, but to make it easier for other people to use, I’ve also included Eastern time.

If you can make use of this file, have fun!

 

Here’s a machine-readable copy of the 2021 NHL schedule

Hockey playerNote: If you’re looking for the 2021/22 NHL schedule in Excel or CSV format, you can find it in this post.

Here’s a CSV file of the NHL schedule, ready to be imported into Excel or your favourite spreadsheet.

Update: I’ve also made an Excel xlsx file available.  See the post here.

Another update: you might also be interested in a spreadsheet that contains the game results.  You can read about it in this post.

I’m quite excited, because the new NHL season is about to start! I was looking for a copy of this season’s schedule in a machine-readable format, but I wasn’t able to find one.  So, I created one.  You can get it here.

Be aware that this is the schedule as of January 12, 2021.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the schedule changes, either due to weather-related game cancellations, or, more likely, changes due to COVID.

This is a CSV (comma-separated value) file, with 5 fields.  The first field is the date of the game, the second field is the game’s start time in Saskatchewan (where I live!), the third field is the game’s start time in Eastern Time (which is the time the NHL website shows), the fourth field is the visiting team, and the fifth field is the home team.  You can easily import this file into Excel, Google Sheets, or whatever spreadsheet you like to use.

Here’s the first couple lines of the file:

Date,Start Time (Sask),Start Time (ET),Visitor,Home
2021-01-13,4:30 PM,5:30 PM,Pittsburgh Penguins,Philadelphia Flyers

The first line, obviously, is the header line, giving a brief description of each of the fields.  The second line, and all subsequent lines, list the games in the schedule, one for each game.  For the example line shown here, we can see:

  • the date of the first game is January 13, 2021
  • the game starts at 4:30 p.m. Saskatchewan time
  • the game starts at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time
  • the visiting team is the Pittsburgh Penguins
  • the home team is the Philadelphia Flyers

Just a brief explanation why I’ve got two time fields in here.  Saskatchewan doesn’t observe Daylight Savings time, so for the first part of the schedule, we have a one-hour time difference from Eastern time, but once the rest of the country leaps forward, we have a two-hour time difference.  Of course, I’m more interested in the time in Saskatchewan, but to make it easier for other people to use, I’ve also included Eastern time.

If you can make use of this file, have fun!

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – March 8, 2020

Philadelphia has continued their winning ways, increasing their rating by 18 points.  I’ve now got them at a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They’ve got two tough games coming up though: #1 Boston on Tuesday, and #2 Tampa Bay on Thursday.

Boston is still the favourite, with a 15% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, down 1% from last week.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1595, ▼2)

Record: 43-14-12, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 79% (▲11)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 15% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • March 3: Won 2-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)
  • March 5: Won in OT 2-1 @ Florida Panthers (17th, 1506)
  • March 7: Lost 5-3 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)

Next week:

  • March 10: @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1569)
  • March 13: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1435)
  • March 14: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1511)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning (1584, ▲1)

Record: 43-20-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼5)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-1

  • March 3: Lost 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
  • March 5: Won 4-0 vs. Montreal Canadiens (28th, 1446)
  • March 7: Won 5-3 @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
  • March 8: Lost in SO 5-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)

Next week:

  • March 10: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1511)
  • March 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1569)
  • March 14: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)
  • March 15: vs. New Jersey Devils (20th, 1492)

3. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1580, ▼3)

Record: 41-19-8, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼4)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 13%

Last week: 2-1-1

  • March 2: Won 2-1 @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)
  • March 4: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1447)
  • March 6: Lost 6-3 @ Vancouver Canucks (23rd, 1485)
  • March 8: Won 4-3 @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1453)

Next week:

  • March 9: @ Los Angeles Kings (26th, 1447)
  • March 11: vs. New York Rangers (19th, 1504)
  • March 13: vs. Vancouver Canucks (23rd, 1485)
  • March 15: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (7th, 1537)

4. Philadelphia Flyers ▲1 (1569, ▲18)

Record: 41-20-7, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99% (▲3)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • March 4: Won 5-2 @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1539)
  • March 5: Won 4-1 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (14th, 1509)
  • March 7: Won 3-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1435)

Next week:

  • March 10: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
  • March 12: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)
  • March 14: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1516)
  • March 15: vs. Edmonton Oilers (8th, 1527)

5. St. Louis Blues ▼1 (1558, ▲6)

Record: 41-18-10, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • March 3: Won 3-1 @ New York Rangers (19th, 1504)
  • March 6: Lost 4-2 @ New Jersey Devils (20th, 1492)
  • March 8: Won 2-0 @ Chicago Black Hawks (24th, 1459)

Next week:

  • March 9: vs. Florida Panthers (17th, 1506)
  • March 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1447)
  • March 13: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1453)
  • March 15: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1424)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1595 (▼2)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           1584 (▲1)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1580 (▼3)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1569 (▲18)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1558 (▲6)
 6       Washington Capitals           1539
 7       Vegas Golden Knights          1537 (▲7)
 8       Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          1527 (▲8)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1522 (▲2)
10       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1516 (▲3)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4)             1513 (▼17)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲8)            1513 (▲13)
13       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1511 (▼17)
14 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      1509 (▲4)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      1509 (▲2)
16       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1508 (▼5)
17       Florida Panthers (▲3)         1506 (▲7)
18       Calgary Flames (▼3)           1505 (▼3)
19       New York Rangers (▼9)         1504 (▼17)
20       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1492 (▲12)
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1489 (▲3)
21 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6)       1489 (▼19)
23       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        1485 (▼8)
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1459 (▼3)
25       San Jose Sharks               1453 (▼7)
26 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1447 (▲7)
26 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1447 (▲10)
28       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1446
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼3)           1435 (▼17)
30       Ottawa Senators               1424 (▲5)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1348 (▲10)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Washington Capitals           50% (▼12)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           45% (▲23)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▼7)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders            <1% (▼3)
 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         <1%
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 89% (▲8)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           11% (▼8)
 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            53% (▼6)
 2       St. Louis Blues               46% (▲9)
 3 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
 3 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1% (▼4)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           <1%
 3 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          48%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               43% (▲11)
 3 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           4% (▼4)
 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             4% (▼8)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%

Making the Playoffs

Eastern Conference

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 >99%
 1 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      >99% (▲3)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           >99%
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           91% (▲2)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs           71% (▼17)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      69% (▲20)
 8       New York Islanders (▼1)       59% (▼20)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets         47% (▲6)
10       Florida Panthers (▲1)         41% (▲19)
11       New York Rangers (▼1)         21% (▼14)
12 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)
12 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
12 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)
12 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
12 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%

Western Conference

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               >99%
 3 (tie) Dallas Stars                  97% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          97% (▲7)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     97% (▲2)
 6       Calgary Flames (▲1)           70% (▲3)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           59% (▲10)
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        56% (▼17)
 9       Nashville Predators (▼1)      53% (▼7)
10       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            42% (▲13)
11       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          25% (▼5)
12       Chicago Blackhawks            2% (▼5)
13 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
13 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 79% (▲11)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           8% (▼5)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            6% (▼4)
 4       St. Louis Blues               4% (▼1)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      2% (▲2)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 15% (▼1)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            13%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           12% (▲1)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      10% (▲3)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          9% (▲1)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     6% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             3% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      3%
11 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      2%
11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    2%
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           2%
11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2%
11 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲9)            2% (▲1)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1%
18 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders (▼5)       1% (▼1)
18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼5)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – March 1, 2020

I’ve been working on a little project for the last couple of years to predict who’s going to win the Stanley Cup.  It’s based on Elo ratings, with my own little tweaks to optimize the predictions, and with those ratings, I simulate the entire season 100,000 times to see what the chances are of each team winning the Stanley Cup.  Anyways, I thought that I would post my current “McDonald NHL Power Ratings” on my blog.  There’s still some changes I want to make to these reports, but here’s what I’ve got right now!

Note that the changes in ratings and rankings are the changes relative to last week (February 23).  Also, note that the average team rating is 1500; teams with a higher rating are above average, and those below are below average.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins ▲1 (1597, ▲3)

Record: 41-13-12, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 68% (▲11)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲2)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • February 25: Lost 5-2 vs. Calgary Flames (15th, 1508)
  • February 27: Won 4-3 vs. Dallas Stars (7th, 1530)
  • February 29: Won 4-0 @ New York Islanders (15th, 1508)

Next week:

  • March 3: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1583)
  • March 5: @ Florida Panthers (20th, 1499)
  • March 7: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1583)

2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1583, ▲19)

Record: 39-18-7, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲7)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • February 26: Won 3-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (26th, 1452)
  • February 28: Won 3-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (18th, 1505)
  • February 29: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (17th, 1507)

Next week:

  • March 2: @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1388)
  • March 4: vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1440)
  • March 6: @ Vancouver Canucks (21st, 1493)
  • March 8: @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1460)

2 (tie). Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1583, ▼16)

Record: 41-19-5, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼19)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼4)

Last week: 1-2-0

  • February 25: Lost 4-3 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (9th, 1528)
  • February 27: Lost 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1462)
  • February 29: Won 4-3 vs. Calgary Flames (15th, 1508)

Next week:

  • March 3: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1597)
  • March 5: vs. Montreal Canadiens (27th, 1446)
  • March 7: @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1597)
  • March 8: @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1338)

4. St. Louis Blues (1552, ▲2)

Record: 39-17-10, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 3-0-0

  • February 25: Won 6-5 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1462)
  • February 27: Won in OT 3-2 vs. New York Islanders (15th, 1508)
  • February 29: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Dallas Stars (7th, 1530)

Next week:

  • March 3: @ New York Rangers (10th, 1521)
  • March 6: @ New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1480)
  • March 8: @ Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1462)

5. Philadelphia Flyers ▲3 (1551, ▲20)

Record: 38-20-7, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: 97% (▲17)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • February 25: Won 4-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1460)
  • February 28: Won 5-2 vs. New York Rangers (10th, 1521)
  • March 1: Won 5-3 @ New York Rangers (10th, 1521)

Next week:

  • March 4: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1539)
  • March 5: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (18th, 1505)
  • March 7: vs. Buffalo Sabres (26th, 1452)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)            1597 (▲3)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       1583 (▲19)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1583 (▼16)
 4       St. Louis Blues               1552 (▲2)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      1551 (▲20)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1539 (▼1)
 7 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲4)             1530 (▲3)
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1530
 9       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9)      1528 (▲24)
10       New York Rangers              1521 (▼7)
11       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1520 (▼13)
12       Edmonton Oilers               1519 (▼1)
13 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6)           1513 (▲13)
13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7)      1513 (▼26)
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲6)           1508 (▲15)
15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       1508 (▼6)
17       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1507 (▼3)
18       Carolina Hurricanes (▼6)      1505 (▼15)
19       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            1500 (▲4)
20       Florida Panthers (▼4)         1499 (▼11)
21       Vancouver Canucks (▼7)        1493 (▼21)
22       Arizona Coyotes               1486 (▼2)
23       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1480 (▲14)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       1462 (▲8)
25       San Jose Sharks               1460 (▲3)
26       Buffalo Sabres (▼3)           1452 (▼16)
27       Montreal Canadiens            1446 (▼7)
28       Anaheim Ducks                 1440 (▲2)
29       Los Angeles Kings             1437 (▲20)
30       Ottawa Senators               1419 (▲4)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1338 (▼8)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Washington Capitals           62% (▲15)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      22% (▲16)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      11% (▼25)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       3% (▼3)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes           1% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers              <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 81% (▲18)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           19% (▼18)
 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            59% (▲13)
 2       St. Louis Blues               37% (▼4)
 3       Dallas Stars                  4% (▼8)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild                <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          48% (▲10)
 2       Edmonton Oilers               32% (▲2)
 3       Vancouver Canucks             12% (▼16)
 4       Calgary Flames                8% (▲5)
 5       Arizona Coyotes               1%
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Eastern Conference

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      >99% (▲2)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      97% (▲17)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      89% (▼7)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      88% (▲37)
 7       New York Islanders (▼1)       79%
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      49% (▼15)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    41% (▼2)
10       New York Rangers (▲1)         35% (▲3)
11       Florida Panthers (▼2)         22% (▼27)
12 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1% (▼5)
12 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
14 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Western Conference

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               >99%
 3       Dallas Stars                  99%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          95% (▲1)
 5       Edmonton Oilers               90% (▼1)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             73% (▼16)
 7       Calgary Flames (▲1)           67% (▲16)
 8       Nashville Predators (▼1)      60% (▼3)
 9       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           49% (▲13)
10       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          30% (▼7)
11       Winnipeg Jets                 29% (▼5)
12       Chicago Blackhawks            7% (▲2)
13 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
13 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 68% (▲11)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           13% (▼19)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            10% (▲7)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          5% (▲3)
 5       Washington Capitals (▼2)      3%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)            16% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       13% (▲3)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      11% (▼4)
 4       St. Louis Blues               8%
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      7% (▲3)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      6% (▲1)
 7       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     5%
 8 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼3)             4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          4%
10 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲6)           3% (▲1)
10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼5)      3% (▼2)
10 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9)      3% (▲2)
13 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6)           2% (▲1)
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       2% (▼1)
13 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         2%
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        2% (▼2)
20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1%
20 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼4)         1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%