Category: CFL

It was a very boring weekend of games in the CFL this week.  Most teams’ playoff positions were determined, so they rested quite a few starters, giving backups a chance to play.  It made for very unpredictable and yet not well-played games.

It was also a rare week of 5 games, with Edmonton playing twice, due to their earlier game with Toronto rescheduled because of COVID protocols.  Edmonton ended up playing three games in eight days, quite a difficult schedule.  But, neither of their games this week meant anything, so it probably wasn’t a big deal.

Now, having said all that, I didn’t bother watching any of the games, so here’s the headlines and links to the game summaries from cfl.ca:

• Elks down Argos for third win of season
• RedBlacks storm back to stun Als in season finale
• Lions down Elks in dominant season finale
• Ticats wrap up reg-season with big win over Riders
• Stamps stun Bombers with late TD, FG

Week 16 Results

Edmonton 13  at Toronto 7
Ottawa 19  at Montreal 18
Edmonton 10  at British Columbia 43
Saskatchewan 3  at Hamilton 24
Winnipeg 12  at Calgary 13

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings this week.  The top 3 teams remain Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, and Calgary; hopefully, that will make for interesting playoffs in the West, although Winnipeg is very dominant, and will play the West Final at home.  Saskatchewan is rated slightly better than Calgary, but this week showed what could happen to them if they lose their starting quarterback.  Toronto dropped down in the rankings, so despite finishing first in the East, we’ve got them ranked as the second-best team in the East, with Hamilton number one.  Ottawa finished the season ranked last, but with their win this week, their rating did improve, but the all still below the 1400-rating-point stink line.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1598 (▼13)	11-3, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1558 (▼12)	9-5, 2nd West
3	Calgary	1550 (▲14)	8-6, 3rd West
4 (▲1)	Hamilton	1539 (▲12)	8-6, 2nd East
5 (▼2)	Toronto	1518 (▼18)	9-5, 1st East
6	Montreal	1496 (▼18)	7-7, 3rd East
7	British Columbia	1446 (▲11)	5-9, 4th West
8	Edmonton	1425 (▲7)	3-11, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1398 (▲19)	3-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is still the favourite to win the Grey Cup, with a 36% chance.  But, remember, that’s just over a one-third chance of winning, so despite being the dominant team, anything can happen.  Finishing first in your division is a big advantage; you only need to win one game to make the Grey Cup, and you play that game at home, so Toronto is our number 2 favourite to win, at 22%.  Perhaps Hamilton at #3 is a bit of a surprise, but if they do make it to the Grey Cup, they’ll be playing it at home, so that will boost their chances.

We’re giving a Western team a 57% chance of winning the Grey Cup.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1598	36% (▼1)
2	Toronto	1518	22% (▼2)
3 (▲1)	Hamilton	1539	15% (▲4)
4 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1558	12% (▼1)
5 (▲1)	Calgary	1550	9% (▲2)
6 (▼1)	Montreal	1496	6% (▼2)
7 (tie)	British Columbia	1435	—
7 (tie)	Edmonton	1424	—
7 (tie)	Ottawa	1379	—

Our Full Predictions

This weekend, we’re predicting wins for the home teams: Hamilton over Montreal in the East, and Saskatchewan over Calgary in the West.  Hamilton are clear favourites to win the East Semi-Final (63% chance of winning), but Saskatchewan will have a tougher time facing Calgary (58%).  Hopefully the friendly confines of Mosaic Stadium will be good to the Riders.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 11-3 1st in West	1598	✔	✔	✔	✔	61%	36%
Toronto 9-5 1st in East	1518	✔	✔	✔	✔	55%	22%
Hamilton 8-6 2nd in East	1539	✔	✔	—	63%	30%	15%
Saskatchewan 9-5 2nd in West	1558	✔	✔	—	58%	23%	12%
Calgary 8-6 3rd in West	1550	✔	—	—	42%	16%	9%
Montreal 7-7 3rd in East	1496	✔	—	—	37%	16%	6%
British Columbia 5-9 4th in West	1446	—	—	—	—	—	—
Edmonton 3-11 5th in West	1425	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ottawa 3-11 4th in East	1398	—	—	—	—	—	—

Division Semi-Final Predictions

Sunday: Montreal (37%) at Hamilton (63%)
Sunday: Calgary (42%) at Saskatchewan (58%)

 

There’s only one week left in the CFL regular season, and playoff spots are mostly sorted out.  We know all of the playoff teams and where most of the games will be played; the only remaining question is who will finish 2nd and 3rd in the East, as Hamilton and Montreal are currently tied for 2nd spot with 7-6 records.  Also, there will be no cross-over this year!

In the West, Winnipeg will finish in first place, Saskatchewan in second, and Calgary third.  In the East, Toronto has clinched first, but we’re waiting for the results of this week to see who gets second.  Montreal is playing bottom-ranked Ottawa in Montreal on Friday, and Hamilton is hosting 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan on Saturday.  If both Montreal and Hamilton win, or they both lose, they end up with tied records (either 8-6 or 7-7), but Hamilton would be awarded second place based on the net aggregate points in the two games they played against each other.  Hamilton had beat Montreal 27-10 in Week 4, and Montreal won 23-20 in Week 9, so the aggregate points would be 47-30 in favour of Hamilton.

But let’s look at what happened this week!  There were four games, two on Friday and two on Saturday.  In the first game on Friday, Hamilton travelled to Toronto to face the first-place Argonauts.  Toronto easily defeated Hamilton, 31-12, and now have a 6-0 record at home.  That’s a good sign for the Argos, as they will host the East Final.  The victory clinched first place for Toronto.  Toronto quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson passed for 250 yards and a touchdown; his Hamilton counterpart, Jeremiah Masoli, passed for 326 yards but was intercepted twice.

In Friday’s late game, British Columbia hosted Calgary.  Needing a win to stay in the hunt for 2nd place in the West, which would let them host the West Semi-Final, Calgary didn’t disappoint their fans, as they defeated British Columbia 33-23.  The BC loss eliminated the Lions from playoff contention, and guaranteed Calgary a spot in the West Final.  Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell looks to be rounding into form after his injury earlier in the season, as he passed for 264 yards and three touchdowns.  In the losing cause, Lion’s QB Michel Reilly passed for 340 yards and one touchdown.

In Saturday’s early game, Winnipeg travelled to Montreal.  The Blue Bombers, the top-ranked team in the CFL, are guaranteed of winning the West Division, and so they rested a number of their starters, including quarterback Zach Collaros.  As a result, Montreal defeated Winnipeg 28-14, snapping the Bombers win streak at 9 games and putting the Alouettes in a 2nd-place tie with Hamilton in the East.  Montreal quarterback Trevor Harris passed for three touchdowns; Winnipeg 2nd-stringer Sean McGuire threw four interceptions in his first career CFL start.  With little to worry about with the passing game, Montreal was able to hold league-leading rusher William Stanback to only 65 yards.

In the final game of the week, last-place in the West Edmonton visited Mosaic Stadium to play 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan.  In a game sure to place concern in the heart of Rider fans, Saskatchewan eked out a 29-24 win over Edmonton.  The win clinched second place for the Riders, who will host the West Semi-Final in two weeks’ time.  Saskatchewan receiver Duke Williams had a big game, catching 8 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown; the other receivers combined for 99 yards.

There will be 5 games played in the final week of the season, as Edmonton will visit Hamilton on Tuesday to make up for their earlier postponed game due to COVID.  The key games will be Ottawa at Montreal on Friday and Saskatchewan at Hamilton on Saturday; these are the only games that will affect the playoff positions.

Week 15 Results

Hamilton 12  at Toronto 31
Calgary 33  at British Columbia 23
Winnipeg 14  at Montreal 28
Edmonton 24  at Saskatchewan 29

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Despite their loss to Montreal, Winnipeg retains top spot in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with Saskatchewan remaining ranked second.  With their loss to Toronto, Hamilton drops from 3rd to 5th, and Calgary and Toronto have moved up into a tie for 3rd in the rankings.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1611 (▼15)	11-2, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1570 (▲6)	9-4, 2nd West
T-3 (▲2)	Calgary	1536  (▲12)	7-6, 3rd West
T-3 (▲1)	Toronto	1536 (▲11)	9-4, 1st East
5 (▼2)	Hamilton	1527 (▼11)	7-6, T-2nd East
6	Montreal	1514 (▲15)	7-6, T-2nd East
7	British Columbia	1435 (▼11)	4-9, 4th West
8	Edmonton	1418 (▼6)	2-10, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1379	2-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Once again, Winnipeg is our favourite to win the Grey Cup, although we’ve dropped their chances from 40% to 37%.  Toronto made a big jump, going from 18% chance to 24%, and are now the favourites in the East to win it all.  British Columbia was eliminated from the playoffs, so of course no longer have a chance of winning it.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1611	37% (▼3)
2 (▲1)	Toronto	1536	24% (▲6)
3 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1570	13% (▲1)
4 (▼2)	Hamilton	1527	11% (▼7)
5	Montreal	1514	8% (▲2)
6	Calgary	1536	7% (▲2)
7 (tie)	British Columbia	1435	— (▼1)
7 (tie)	Edmonton	1424	—
7 (tie)	Ottawa	1379	—

Our Full Predictions

All the playoff teams have been determined, but it’s still not decided who will finish second in the East and consequently host the East Semi-Final.  We’re giving Hamilton a 63% chance of finishing second.  Right now, our most likely scenario is Winnipeg playing Toronto in the Grey Cup, as each team only needs to win their respective Division Final to reach the big game.  But, victories in the Final are far from assured!  It will be interesting as we move into the playoffs in two weeks.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 11-2, 1st in West	1611	✔	✔	✔	✔	63%	37%
Toronto 9-4, 1st in East	1536	✔	✔	✔	✔	57%	24%
Saskatchewan 9-4, 2nd in West	1570	✔	✔	—	62%	24%	13%
Hamilton 7-6, T-2nd in East	1527	✔	63%	—	54%	23%	11%
Montreal 7-6, T-2nd in East	1514	✔	37%	—	46%	19%	8%
Calgary 7-6, 3rd in West	1536	✔	—	—	38%	13%	7%
British Columbia 4-9, 4th in West	1435	—	—	—	—	—	—
Edmonton 2-10, 5th in West	1418	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ottawa 2-11, 4th in East	1379	—	—	—	—	—	—

Week 16 Game Predictions

Tuesday: Edmonton (28%) at Toronto (71%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at Montreal (73%)
Friday: Edmonton (40%) at British Columbia (59%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (49%) at Hamilton (50%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (53%) at Calgary (46%)

 

There’s only two weeks left in the CFL regular season, but there’s still a lot up in the air heading towards the playoffs.  In the West, Winnipeg has first place locked up, Saskatchewan has clinched a playoff spot, and Edmonton has been eliminated from the playoffs, but it’s still not clear whether Calgary or British Columbia will get the last playoff spot.  In fact, Calgary still has a chance of finishing second and getting themselves a home playoff game.  In the East, Ottawa has been eliminated, and Montreal can’t win the division, but the other playoff positions are still up for grabs.

There were two games on Friday and two on Saturday this week.  In the first Friday game, British Columbia travelled to Hamilton.  The Ticats defeated the Lions, 26-18.  British Columbia scored a field goal on the first possession of the game, after a drive that used up half of the first quarter.  But Hamilton came back and also kicked a field goal on their first possession, and never trailed after that.  Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli passed for 258 yards, passing the 15,000 yard career mark and becoming only the fourth Hamilton player to do so.  In a losing cause, BC quarterback Michael Reilly went 33-for-43 for 330 yards, but it wasn’t enough.  It was BC’s sixth straight loss.

On Friday’s second game, Saskatchewan travelled to Edmonton for a late evening November ballgame on the Prairies.  But, surprisingly, it was a beautiful night for football, with the temperature above zero at the start of the game and a very light wind.  Saskatchewan beat Edmonton 19-17, their third straight road win.  With the loss, the Elks finished their home season with an unblemished 0-7 record, the first time in their history that they haven’t won a game at home.  Saskatchewan led 16-3 after the 3rd quarter, and Edmonton made it close, but Elk QB Taylor Cornelius, who ended the game with 322 passing yards, couldn’t finish the comeback.  Saskatchewan, despite being ranked 2nd in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, only scored one touchdown against the 8th-ranked Elks.  Perhaps the most exciting play of the game for the Riders was when they scored a rouge late in the 2nd quarter after a 53 yard punt into the end zone couldn’t be run out by Edmonton.  Saskatchewan was flagged for a 5 yard no yards call, but rather than not giving up the point and taking possession of the ball deep in their own end, Edmonton chose to decline the penalty and give up the single point.  And that WAS Saskatchewan’s most exciting play of the game, in the eyes of this observer.

In Saturday’s first game, Toronto defeated the hapless Ottawa RedBlacks 23-20.  Despite the close score, rookie Ottawa quarterback Devlin Hodges went 8 for 22 for a total of 90 yards, but in his part, Argo quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw 3 interceptions.  Ottawa must be looking forward to the end of the season, and hope to be more hapful next year.  Making the score close was Ottawa’s exciting kick returner DeVonte Dedmon, who returned 3 kickoffs for 126 yards, including a 100 yard touchdown return, and two punts for 30 yards, one of which went for 24 yards. He’s an exciting player to watch!

The final game of the weekend saw Montreal travel to Winnipeg to take on the top-ranked Blue Bombers.  The home team didn’t disappoint their fans, as Winnipeg won 31-21 over Montreal.  It was Winnipeg’s 9th straight win, and they finished their home season at 7-0.  Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns, and Bomber running back William Stanback rushed for 106 yards, a 6.6 yards per carry average.  The game was tied 21-21 after three quarters, showing that Winnipeg can be beaten, but they shut down the Als in the fourth quarter to take the win.

On a sad note, CFL Hall of Famer Angelo Mosca died this week after a lengthy battle with Alzheimer’s disease.  He was a feared defensive lineman who won 5 Grey Cups and eventually became a professional wrestler.  His best known fight, though, may have been at a 2011 CFL Alumni gathering, when he and Joe Kapp, former BC Lions quarterback, battled over a perceived dirty hit in the 1963 Grey Cup game.  You can watch the fight on YouTube.

Week 14 Results

British Columbia 18  at Hamilton 26
Saskatchewan 19  at Edmonton 17
Toronto 23  at Ottawa 20
Montreal 21  at Winnipeg 31

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week.  With Calgary idle and Toronto beating Ottawa, Toronto has moved past Calgary into 4th place in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings.  Winnipeg remains on top, far ahead of second place Saskatchewan.  Despite Toronto leading the East, we still have Hamilton as the Eastern team.  Montreal has now dropped below the magical 1500 mark.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1626 (▲7)	11-1, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1564 (▲10)	8-4, 2nd West
3	Hamilton	1538 (▲8)	7-5, 2nd East
4 (▲1)	Toronto	1525 (▲10)	8-4, 1st East
5 (▼1)	Calgary	1524	6-6, 3rd West
6	Montreal	1499 (▼7)	6-6, 3rd East
7	British Columbia	1446 (▼8)	4-8, 4th West
8	Edmonton	1424 (▼10)	2-9, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1379 (▼10)	2-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, with them winning in 40% of our simulations.  Why only 40%, when they are clearly the strongest team in the CFL?  Well, they do have to win the games on the field, not just on paper.  As could be seen with their game this week against Montreal, they are vulnerable.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1626	40% (▲1)
2	Hamilton	1538	18% (▲1)
3	Toronto	1525	18% (▲1)
4	Saskatchewan	1564	12% (▲1)
5	Montreal	1499	6% (▼3)
6	Calgary	1524	5% (▼1)
7	British Columbia	1446	1%
8 (tie)	Edmonton	1424	— (▼1)
8 (tie)	Ottawa	1379	—

Our Full Predictions

Edmonton has now been eliminated from the playoffs, and Montreal can’t win the East.  British Columbia still has a chance to make the playoffs, but can’t finish higher than 3rd in the West.  Calgary could still finish second in the West, but they need to win their last two games and Saskatchewan needs to lose their last two.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 11-1 1st in West	1626	✔	✔	✔	✔	66%	40%
Hamilton 7-5 2nd in East	1538	✔	92%	31%	72%	37%	18%
Toronto 8-4 1st in East	1525	✔	96%	69%	87%	46%	18%
Saskatchewan 8-4 2nd in West	1564	✔	97%	—	63%	22%	12%
Montreal 6-6 3rd in East	1499	✔	12%	—	41%	16%	6%
Calgary 6-6 3rd in West	1524	84%	3%	—	32%	11%	5%
British Columbia 4-8 4th in West	1446	16%	—	—	5%	1%	1%
Edmonton 2-9 5th in West	1424	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ottawa 2-11 4th in East	1379	—	—	—	—	—	—

Week 15 Game Predictions

Friday: Hamilton (45%) at Toronto (54%)
Friday: Calgary (53%) at British Columbia (46%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (60%) at Montreal (39%)
Saturday: Edmonton (25%) at Saskatchewan (74%)

 

While preparing last week’s McDonald CFL Power Ratings report, I thought, “you know, other than Winnipeg, the teams this year just aren’t that good, and the games really haven’t been that exciting.”  During the week, I ran across a couple articles that were able to make that point much better than me.  Regina Leader-Post’s Rob Vanstone, a guy around my age, a fellow Mets fan, and someone who has played Strat-O-Matic Football, summed it up beautifully in the article “All is not swell in the once-exciting CFL.”  I’ve gotta meet this guy some time.  Meanwhile, over at 3DownNation, Joel Gasson rightly wrote that “The CFL has an entertainment problem and there’s no easy solution.”  But anyways, on to this week’s games.

There were four games again this weekend, two on Friday and two on Saturday.  In the first game Friday, up-and-coming Calgary travelled to Ottawa to face the bottom-ranked RedBlacks.  Calgary was coming off a loss to Saskatchewan last week, and looked to resume their run for the playoffs.  Despite being behind 10-3 after the first quarter, Calgary prevailed over Ottawa 26-13.  For the winning side, running back Ka’Deem Carey rushed for 103 yards and one touchdown, and quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 242 yards, enough to give him 30,000 career passing yards in the CFL.  The Calgary defense also sacked the Ottawa quarterback five times.  Calgary has now won four of their last five games.

In the late game, Hamilton thumped Edmonton 39-23.  Hamilton led 27-4 at the half, in which quarterback Jeremiah Masoli passed for 287 yards and three touchdowns.  In just the first half!!!  Masoli ended up with a total of 357 passing yards for the game.  Hamilton running back Don Jackson ran for 120 yards.  For the Elks, Taylor Cornelius passed for 251 yards and Dakota Prukop, who carried the ball eight times for a total of 9 yards, scored two rushing touchdowns in a losing effort.

Saturday’s first game saw British Columbia visit Toronto.  On a stormy day, Toronto outlasted BC 31-29 in overtime.  With 5:30 left in the game, Toronto led 23-21, with BC 3rd and 4 from the Toronto 37.  Attempting a 50 yard field goal, BC’s Jimmy Camacho missed, but the ball went through the end zone for a rouge (perhaps football’s most exciting play), cutting the Toronto lead to 1.  There followed a 3-and-out for Toronto, then a 3-and-out for BC, and another 3-and-out for Toronto.  On the next possession, BC moved the ball down to Toronto 42, where Camacho again tried another 50 yard field goal.  This time, it was blocked, and Toronto took over the ball on their own 13 with 45 seconds left and a one point lead.  Attempting to run out the clock, they were only able to run it down to 18 seconds before having to punt.  BC returned the punt to the Toronto 37 with 7 seconds left.  They were able to complete a pass to the 30 with 3 seconds left, at which point Camacho attempted a 37 yard field goal.  He missed again, the ball sailed through the end zone for a rouge, and the game went to overtime.  In overtime, Toronto scored a touchdown on their possession and followed it up with a two-point convert.  On BC’s possession, they also scored a touchdown, but failed the two-point convert attempt, and Toronto ended up with the win.

In the last game of the weekend, I’m not sure if it was an impressive defensive showing by both teams, or a game of sputtering offenses, but Saskatchewan beat Montreal 19-14.  At the half, Saskatchewan led 7-3, having scored on their last possession of the half.  After 4 more field goals and a rouge, the game progressed to a 16-7 Saskatchewan lead.  Montreal finally found the endzone with 1:27 left in the game to cut the lead to 2, but after yet another Rider field goal, Montreal wasn’t able to score again.  In the win, Saskatchewan’s defense recorded five sacks, while Montreal got six of their own.

Week 13 Results

Calgary 26  at Ottawa 13
Hamilton 39  at Edmonton 23
British Columbia 29  at Toronto 31
Saskatchewan 19  at Montreal 14

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There weren’t a lot of changes in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings this week.  Winnipeg and Saskatchewan remain the top two teams, and British Columbia, Edmonton, and Ottawa are the bottom three.  With Montreal’s loss to Saskatchewan, they have dropped from 3rd all the way down to 6th, and as a result, Hamilton, Calgary, and Toronto, all winners this week, have moved up one spot each.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1619	10-1, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1554 (▲14)	7-4, 2nd West
3 (▲1)	Hamilton	1530 (▲12)	6-5, T-2nd East
4 (▲1)	Calgary	1524 (▲10)	6-6, 3rd West
5 (▲1)	Toronto	1515 (▲9)	7-4, 1st East
6 (▼3)	Montreal	1506 (▼13)	6-5, T-2nd East
7	British Columbia	1454 (▼9)	4-7, 4th West
8	Edmonton	1434 (▼12)	2-8, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1389 (▼10)	2-10, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg, by far the best team in the league this year, continue to be the favourites to win the Grey Cup.  Having clinched first place in the West, they advance straight to the West Final.  A win there puts them in the Grey Cup.  Hamilton, who will host the Grey Cup this year, are now second favourite to win it all, at 17%, which is the same as Toronto, but when you get down to percentage points, we put Hamilton ahead (17.2% vs. 16.9%).  Saskatchewan improved their chances slightly with their win over Montreal, but will need to win in the Western Semi-Final, then beat Winnipeg in the Western Final to reach the big game.  Although Edmonton hasn’t been eliminated from the playoffs yet, their chances of making it are very slim, and we’ve calculated that they have a 0.006% chance of winning the Grey Cup!

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1619	39% (▼2)
2 (▲2)	Hamilton	1530	17% (▲3)
3	Toronto	1515	17% (▲3)
4 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1554	11% (▲1)
5 (▼3)	Montreal	1506	9% (▼6)
6	Calgary	1524	6% (▲1)
7	British Columbia	1454	1% (▼1)
8	Edmonton	1434	<1%
9	Ottawa	1389	—

Our Full Predictions

This week, both Toronto and Saskatchewan clinched playoff spots.  Hamilton and Montreal are very likely to also make the playoffs in the East (99% chance for each).  It will be likely that Calgary will also make the playoffs, at 78%, with British Columbia at only a 24% likelihood.  Edmonton’s chances are extremely slim, but they haven’t been eliminated yet.  That could come if they lose to Saskatchewan this week.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 10-1, 1st in West	1619	✔	✔	✔	✔	66%	39%
Hamilton 6-5, T-2nd in East	1530	99%	73%	29%	67%	35%	17%
Toronto 7-4, 1st in East	1515	✔	86%	63%	81%	43%	17%
Saskatchewan 7-4, 2nd in West	1554	✔	89%	—	60%	21%	11%
Montreal 6-5, T-2nd in East	1506	99%	40%	9%	51%	22%	9%
Calgary 6-6, 3rd in West	1524	78%	11%	—	33%	11%	6%
British Columbia 4-7, 4th in West	1454	24%	—	—	8%	2%	1%
Edmonton 2-8, 5th in West	1434	<1%	—	—	<1%	<1%	<1%
Ottawa 2-10, 4th in East	1389	—	—	—	—	—	—

Week 14 Game Predictions

Friday: British Columbia (33%) at Hamilton (66%)
Friday: Saskatchewan (59%) at Edmonton (40%)
Saturday: Toronto (60%) at Ottawa (39%)
Saturday: Montreal (28%) at Winnipeg (71%)

 

This week saw a return to a typical 4 game weekend.  The first game was Friday night, featuring the top two teams in the East, Toronto (1st place with a 6-3 record) visiting Montreal (2nd place with a 5-4 record).  Both teams were riding 3 game winning streaks coming into this game, but it was Montreal prevailing with a convincing 37-16 over Toronto.  The star of the game was Alouettes’ running back William Stanback, who rushed for 203 yards and one touchdown.  Although Toronto quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson was 24-for-38 for 268 yards, he didn’t throw any touchdowns and was picked off four times.  The teams are now tied atop the East with identical 6-4 records.

On a triple-header Saturday, there were two blowouts and one close game.  In the first game of the day, Hamilton hosted bottom-dwelling Ottawa, and they weren’t good hosts, as Hamilton thumped Ottawa 32-3.  Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, while backup quarterback Dane Evans, used in short-yardage situations, added a couple more rushing touchdowns.  The game was 0-0 after one quarter, but Hamilton got rolling from there.

The second game of the day resulted in the second blowout of the day, as Winnipeg also were lousy hosts, destroying British Columbia 45-0.  With the win, Winnipeg clinches first place in the West Division.  The Blue Bombers took the lead 15-0 after the first quarter with two touchdowns and a rouge (arguably the most exciting play in Canadian football), and added another rouge in the second quarter.  And on the last play of the game, not satisfied with a 44-0 lead, they added yet another rouge to finish off the scoring!  Quarterback Zach Collaros threw for three touchdowns in the victory.

The third game of the day featured two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions.  Home team Calgary were on a 3 game winning streak, while Saskatchewan had lost their last 2 games, both to Calgary.  But, both of those Saskatchewan / Calgary games were close, with the Stampeders winning on the last play of the game in the previous one, and the Riders getting picked off on the last play of the game while trying to take the lead the week before that.  This was another close on, as Saskatchewan defeated Calgary 20-17.  Rider quarterback Cody Fajardo completed 21 of 26 passes, including two second-half touchdowns, to lead them to victory.  In a losing cause, Stampeders quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell passed Henry Burris as the all-time Calgary completions leader, completing 21 passes for 311 yards.  With these two teams the most likely to face each other in the Western Semi-Final, it should make for an exciting game!

Week 12 Results

Toronto 16  at Montreal 37
Ottawa 3  at Hamilton 32
British Columbia 0  at Winnipeg 45
Saskatchewan 20  at Calgary 17

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg, who clinched first place in the West Division this week, remains at the top of our rankings.  With their road win over Calgary, Saskatchewan has moved back into 2nd spot.  With Montreal’s win over Toronto, Montreal moved into 3rd, while Toronto dropped back down to 6th.  Note, though, that Montreal, Hamilton, and Calgary are separated by only 5 rating points, so really, it’s a little too close to say who is actually the better team among those three.  Ottawa has dropped below the 1400 mark, which marks a really bad team.  Let’s hope they can turn things around.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1619 (▲6)	10-1, 1st West
2 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1540 (▲14)	6-4, 2nd West
3 (▲3)	Montreal	1519 (▲11)	6-4, T-1st East
4 (▲1)	Hamilton	1518 (▲7)	5-5, 3rd East
5 (▼3)	Calgary	1514 (▼14)	5-6, 3rd West
6 (▼2)	Toronto	1506 (▼11)	6-4, T-1st East
7	British Columbia	1463 (▼6)	4-6, 4th West
8	Edmonton	1446	2-7, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1399 (▼7)	2-9, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, at 41% probability!  With their win over Toronto, Montreal now moves up into 2nd with a 15% chance, dropping Toronto to 3rd (14%).  Ottawa has been eliminated from the playoffs.  Despite being ranked 2nd in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings, Saskatchewan only has a 10% chance of winning; that’s the problem of being in the same division as the powerful Blue Bombers.  But, anything can happen in the playoffs!

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1619	41% (▲1)
2 (▲1)	Montreal	1519	15% (▲3)
3 (▼1)	Toronto	1506	14% (▼4)
4	Hamilton	1518	14% (▲2)
5	Saskatchewan	1540	10% (▲2)
6	Calgary	1514	5% (▼3)
7	British Columbia	1463	2%
8	Edmonton	1446	<1%
9	Ottawa	1399	—

Our Full Predictions

Winnipeg has clinched the West Division, while Ottawa has been eliminated from the playoffs.  Why haven’t the other three Eastern teams clinched playoff spots?  It’s because Western teams still have a chance to make the cross-over, although it’s a slim chance.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 10-1, 1st in West	1619	✔	✔	✔	✔	67%	41%
Montreal 6-4, T-1st in East	1519	>99%	75%	35%	69%	35%	15%
Toronto 6-4, T-1st in East	1506	99%	77%	45%	71%	36%	14%
Hamilton 5-5, 3rd in East	1518	93%	48%	20%	56%	28%	14%
Saskatchewan 6-4, 2nd in West	1540	97%	80%	—	57%	19%	10%
Calgary 5-6, 3rd in West	1514	65%	16%	—	29%	10%	5%
British Columbia 4-6, 4th in West	1463	40%	2%	—	14%	4%	2%
Edmonton 2-7, 5th in West	1446	5%	1%	—	2%	1%	<1%
Ottawa 2-9, 4th in East	1399	—	—	—	—	—	—

Week 13 Game Predictions

Friday: Calgary (58%) at Ottawa (41%)
Friday: Hamilton (52%) at Edmonton (47%)
Saturday: British Columbia (37%) at Toronto (62%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (46%) at Montreal (53%)

It was a little slower week in the CFL, with only three games, as opposed to last week’s 5 games.  In Friday night’s game, the West’s top team, Winnipeg, visited last-in-the-West Edmonton.  In a closer game than expected, Winnipeg beat Edmonton 26-16.  The game was tied at 16 after three quarters, but Winnipeg put another touchdown and a field goal on the board, while their defense shut out Edmonton — Winnipeg hasn’t given up a touchdown in the fourth quarter yet this season!  Winnipeg is now 9-1, their best start since 1960.

There were two games on Saturday.  In the first, Montreal defeated lowly Ottawa 27-16.  Matthew Shiltz, Montreal’s quarterback, threw for 281 yards in his first start of the season.  Montreal’s defense recorded 10 (yes, 10!!!) sacks in the game.  With the score at 25-13 in Montreal’s favour at the half, there were only 5 more points scored in the second half, three on a field goal for Ottawa in the 3rd quarter, and 2 for Montreal on a safety in the fourth.

In the last game of the week, Calgary powered past British Columbia, 39-10.  This was Calgary’s third straight win, and moved them into 2nd place in the West, tied with Saskatchewan, although the Riders do have a game in hand.  British Columbia has lost three straight, all at home, and have now dropped out of a playoff spot.  Things don’t look much better for them coming up, as they head to Winnipeg next week, while Calgary will host Saskatchewan; that will be Saskatchewan’s third game in a row against Calgary, as they had a bye this week.

Week 11 Results

Winnipeg 26  at Edmonton 16
Montreal 27  at Ottawa 16
Calgary 39  at British Columbia 10

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg remains on top of the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with a season-high rating of 1613, far ahead of any other team.  But, this is the CFL, and anything can happen!  With their win, Calgary moved up to 2nd spot, pushing Saskatchewan down into 3rd, although they are only 2 rating points ahead of the Riders.  With Montreal’s win, there are now 6 teams with higher than a 1500 rating.  Ottawa continues to dwell in the cellar.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1613 (▲9)	9-1, 1st West
2 (▲2)	Calgary	1528 (▲13)	5-5, T-2nd West
3 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1526	5-4, T-2nd West
4 (▼1)	Toronto	1517	6-3, 1st East
5	Hamilton	1511	4-5, 3rd East
6	Montreal	1508 (▲12)	5-4, 2nd East
7	British Columbia	1469 (▼13)	4-5, 4th West
8	Edmonton	1446 (▼9)	2-7, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1406 (▼11)	2-8, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is just so much better than any other team in the league this year.  Based on that, we’re now giving them a 40% chance of winning the Grey Cup.  Toronto continues to be the top team in the East, but with only an 18% chance of winning.  Edmonton and Ottawa now have less than a 1% chance of winning, but they’re not completely eliminated yet!

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1613	40% (▲1)
2	Toronto	1517	18% (▲1)
3 (▲1)	Montreal	1508	12% (▲2)
4 (▼1)	Hamilton	1511	12%
5	Saskatchewan	1526	8% (▼1)
6	Calgary	1528	8% (▲2)
7	British Columbia	1469	2% (▼2)
8	Edmonton	1446	<1% (▼1)
9	Ottawa	1406	<1%

Our Full Predictions

According to our calculations, Winnipeg is guaranteed at least 2nd place in the West, so they will definitely be hosting a playoff game.  In fact, we’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of winning the Western Division!  British Columbia, Edmonton, and Ottawa are unable to win their divisions, but they all still have a chance of making the playoffs, although we’re only giving Ottawa a 1% chance of that happening.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 9-1, 1st in West	1613	✔	✔	>99%	>99%	66%	40%
Toronto 6-3, 1st in East	1517	99%	89%	67%	83%	45%	18%
Montreal 5-4, 2nd in East	1508	95%	63%	21%	58%	28%	12%
Hamilton 4-5 3rd in East	1511	84%	48%	12%	50%	23%	12%
Saskatchewan 5-4, T-2nd in West	1526	89%	47%	<1%	46%	16%	8%
Calgary 5-5, T-2nd in West	1528	82%	45%	<1%	43%	15%	8%
British Columbia 4-5, 4th in West	1469	43%	8%	—	17%	6%	2%
Edmonton 2-7, 5th in West	1446	7%	1%	—	3%	1%	<1%
Ottawa 2-8, 4th in East	1406	1%	<1%	—	<1%	<1%	<1%

Week 12 Game Predictions

Friday: Toronto (44%) at Montreal (55%)
Saturday: Ottawa (29%) at Hamilton (70%)
Saturday: British Columbia (25%) at Winnipeg (74%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (43%) at Calgary (56%)

 

I’ve been away from my computer for a few weeks, so I’m a little behind on my CFL Power Ratings.  But, in the interests of maintaining consistency, I’m catching up with all the reports.  Anyways, here goes…

It was a busy Thanksgiving weekend for football in the CFL, with 5 games played — in a 9 team league!  In fact, British Columbia even had a bye week!  Both Ottawa and Toronto played twice, but spaced out with playing each other on Wednesday, then playing other teams on Monday.

In the Wednesday night game, Toronto scored 27 points in the third quarter to easily defeat Ottawa 35-16.  Although that improved their record to only 5-3, Toronto is 4-0 at home this year.  Ottawa led 9-8 at the half, but Toronto’s strong third quarter, which included a couple of pick-sixes by their defense, put the game away for the home team.  Ottawa rookie quarterback went 23-for-41 for 334 yards, but was intercepted three times.

Friday’s game saw first-place in the West Winnipeg host last-place in the West Edmonton.  The result was as expected, as Winnipeg dominated Edmonton 30-3.  Winnipeg is now 8-1, having won their last 6 games in a row, and are 5-0 at home.  Winnipeg scored 3 safeties in the game, and were led on offense by Andrew Harris, who rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns.

Saturday’s game had Saskatchewan looking for revenge, as they hosted Calgary after losing a close game in Calgary last week.  They were disappointed, as Calgary defeated Saskatchewan 22-19 on a 44-yard field goal as time expired.  Calgary scored their only touchdown of the game on their very first play from scrimmage, a 71 yard pass.  All the rest of their scoring came on Rene Paredes’ 5  field goals.  Saskatchewan also scored only one touchdown.  Bo Levi Mitchell passed for 296 yards and Ka’Deem Carey rushed for another 109 in the winning effort.

There were two games on Thanksgiving Monday.  In the first, Montreal scored a touchdown with 42 seconds left in the contest to defeat Ottawa 20-16.  Montreal’s quarterback, Vernon Adams Jr., was injured with just over two minutes left, but backup Matthew Shiltz came in and completed Adams’ drive to give Montreal the victory.  Ottawa sacked Adams six times in the game, but Cameron Artis-Payne’s ground game, 122 yards on 21 carries in his first CFL start, carried the Alouettes to victory.

The last game of the weekend, played while most of the country was eating turkey or napping, saw Toronto defeat Hamilton 24-23.  Both quarterbacks had big games, with Toronto’s Mclead Bethel-Thompson passing for 388 yards and two touchdowns and Hamilton’s Jeremiah Masoli passing for 361 yards and his own pair of touchdowns.  Toronto scored 19 points in the fourth quarter, to Hamilton’s 10, including the game-winning 51 yard field goal from Boris Bede.

Week 10 Results

Ottawa 16  at Toronto 35
Edmonton 3  at Winnipeg 30
Calgary 22  at Saskatchewan 19
Ottawa 16  at Montreal 20
Toronto 24  at Hamilton 23

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

With their two wins in the week, Toronto made a big move up in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, now ranking 3rd.  Winnipeg continues to lead the rankings, with Saskatchewan far behind in second.  Despite staying in second place, Saskatchewan has lost 29 points in the last two weeks, following back-to-back losses to Calgary.  The race for second place in the West has become a lot closer, with Calgary only a game back of Saskatchewan.  Interesting to note, 5 teams are above a 1500 rating, the first time that has happened this season.  Ottawa continues to trail in the rankings.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1604 (▲7)	8-1, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1526 (▼16)	5-4, 2nd West
3	Toronto (▲2)	1517 (▲24)	6-3, 1st East
4	Calgary	1515 (▲16)	4-5, T-3rd West
5	Hamilton (▼2)	1511 (▼15)	4-5, T-2nd East
6	Montreal	1496 (▲9)	4-4, T-2nd East
7	British Columbia	1482	4-4, T-3rd West
8	Edmonton	1455 (▼6)	2-6, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1417 (▼17)	2-7, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup.  They win in 39% of our simulations.  Toronto is now the most likely team from the East to win, with a 19% chance.  In fact, the second, third, and fourth most likely teams to win all come from the East.  Calgary has been moving up in the rankings, but we still only give them a 6% chance of winning it all.  It’s tough playing in the same division as Winnipeg!  Overall, we’re giving Western teams a 58% chance of winning the Grey Cup.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1604	39% (▲3)
2 (▲1)	Toronto	1517	19% (▲6)
3 (▼1)	Hamilton	1511	12% (▼8)
4 (▲1)	Montreal	1496	10% (▲2)
5 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1526	9% (▼3)
6 (▲1)	Calgary	1515	6% (▲2)
7 (▼1)	British Columbia	1482	4%
8 (▲1)	Edmonton	1455	1%
9 (▼1)	Ottawa	1417	<1% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Winnipeg has clinched a playoff spot, while it is now impossible for Edmonton to win the West Division.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 8-1, 1st in West	1604	✔	>99%	99%	99%	65%	39%
Toronto 6-3, 1st in East	1517	99%	91%	71%	86%	47%	19%
Hamilton 4-5, T-2nd in East	1511	85%	57%	14%	52%	25%	12%
Montreal 4-4, T-2nd in East	1496	85%	50%	15%	49%	23%	10%
Saskatchewan 5-4, 2nd in West	1526	86%	51%	<1%	46%	17%	9%
Calgary 4-5, T-3rd in West	1515	62%	28%	1%	32%	12%	6%
British Columbia 4-4, T-3rd in West	1482	64%	20%	<1%	28%	9%	4%
Edmonton 2-6, 5th in West	1455	12%	2%	—	5%	2%	1%
Ottawa 2-7, 4th in East	1417	6%	2%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%

Week 11 Game Predictions

Friday: Winnipeg (63%) at Edmonton (36%)
Saturday: Montreal (53%) at Ottawa (46%)
Saturday: Calgary (48%) at British Columbia (51%)

 

I’ve been away from my computer for a few weeks, so I’m a little behind on my CFL Power Ratings.  But, in the interests of maintaining consistency, I’m catching up with all the reports.  Anyways, here goes…

A Tuesday night game in the CFL?  Strange, but in a high-scoring contest, the last place in the East Ottawa RedBlacks defeated the last place in the West Edmonton Elks, 34-24.  Ottawa’s rookie quarterback Caleb Evans made his CFL start, and threw three touchdown passes.  Punt returner DeVonte Dedmon scored another touchdown on a punt return.  Despite passing for 334 yards and two touchdowns, QB Taylor Cornelius couldn’t lead the Elks to victory.

The second game of the week featured the top-ranked Winnipeg Blue Bombers visiting the BC Lions on Friday night.  Unsurprisingly, Winnipeg dominated, beating BC 30-9.  Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros completed 28 of 33 passes, throwing for 417 yards and two touchdowns.  Yes, 417 yards!!!  Kenny Lawler caught 12 of those passes for 205 yards.  The Winnipeg defense sacked Lions’ quarterback Michael Reilly five times.

Saturday saw two games being played.  In the upset of the week, Montreal edged Hamilton 23-20 in overtime.  Montreal overcame a 17-3 deficit in the 4th quarter, and scored on their final drive of regulation time, including converting two 3rd down situations, including a 3rd-and-20 on which they took the lead 20-17.  But, Hamilton kicker Taylor Bertolet put through a 55-yard field goal as time ran out to send the game to overtime.  In overtime, Hamilton fumbled the ball with Montreal recovering to end the first drive, and on the second, Montreal kicked a 36 yard field goal to take the victory.

In the final game of the week, Calgary held off Saskatchewan to win 23-17.  Trailing 23-14, the Riders kicked a field goal with 1:46 left to cut the lead to 6.  On the ensuing kickoff, Saskatchewan was able to recover the kick, but the play was called back because of an illegal interference call.  On the re-do, they recovered again!  Needing a touchdown, they marched down to the Calgary 41, but on a 3rd-and-10 pass, Calgary intercepted on their own 5 yard line and were able to run out the clock for the victory.

Week 9 Results

Edmonton 24  at Ottawa 34
Winnipeg 30  at British Columbia 9
Montreal 23  at Hamilton 20
Saskatchewan 17  at Calgary 23

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was no change in the top 3 teams this week, but Winnipeg expands their claim to best in the league, as they’ve now got a 55 point lead of McDonald CFL Power Rating points.  Calgary has moved up to 4th place, just one point below the magic 1500 good/bad point.  Despite their win this week, Ottawa remains the lowest team in our rankings.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1597 (▲11)	7-1, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1542 (▼13)	5-3, 2nd West
3	Hamilton	1526 (▼17)	4-4, T-1st East
4 (▲2)	Calgary	1499 (▲13)	3-5, 4th West
5 (▼1)	Toronto	1493	4-3, T-1st East
6 (▲2)	Montreal	1487 (▲17)	3-4, 3rd East
7 (▼3)	British Columbia	1482 (▼11)	4-4, 3rd West
8 (▼1)	Edmonton	1461 (▼12)	2-5, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1434 (▲13)	2-5, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the team with the greatest chance of winning the Grey Cup, with a 36% chance.  Hamilton is the most-likely team in the East, with a 20% chance, although that’s down 6 percentage points from last week.  Beyond those two, there was lots of shuffling of teams, with Montreal (8% chance) and Calgary (4%) chance both up 3% from last week.  We’ve also calculated a 56% chance of a Western team winning the Cup.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1597	36% (▲7)
2	Hamilton	1526	20% (▼6)
3 (▲1)	Toronto	1493	13% (▲1)
4 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1542	12% (▼3)
5 (▲1)	Montreal	1487	8% (▲3)
6 (▼1)	British Columbia	1482	4% (▼2)
7 (▲1)	Calgary	1499	4% (▲3)
8 (▲1)	Ottawa	1434	2% (▲1)
9 (▼2)	Edmonton	1461	1% (▼1)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 7-1, 1st in West	1597	>99%	99%	95%	98%	62%	36%
Hamilton 4-4, T-1st in East	1526	93%	78%	44%	72%	40%	20%
Toronto 4-3, T-1st in East	1493	89%	69%	40%	64%	32%	13%
Saskatchewan 5-3, 2nd in West	1542	93%	72%	4%	57%	22%	12%
Montreal 3-4, 3rd in East	1487	74%	42%	13%	43%	19%	8%
British Columbia 4-4, 3rd in West	1482	69%	12%	1%	27%	9%	4%
Calgary 3-5, 4th in West	1499	40%	12%	<1%	19%	7%	4%
Ottawa 2-5, 4th in East	1434	25%	11%	3%	13%	5%	2%
Edmonton 2-5, 5th in West	1461	17%	4%	<1%	7%	3%	1%

Week 10 Game Predictions

Wednesday: Ottawa (35%) at Toronto (64%)
Friday: Edmonton (26%) at Winnipeg (73%)
Saturday: Calgary (37%) at Saskatchewan (62%)
Monday: Ottawa (36%) at Montreal (63%)
Monday: Toronto (38%) at Hamilton (61%)

It was a quieter week in the CFL this week with only 3 games played.  Plus, the first game of the week was played on Wednesday, and two games were played on Friday.  No weekend games!  Very odd.  Plus, one game that looked close in the final score wasn’t, and another that didn’t look close was!

The Wednesday night game saw number 3-ranked Hamilton visit the lowest ranked team in the CFL, Ottawa.  Hamilton beat the RedBlacks easily, 24-7.  In a rainy night in Ottawa, the RedBlacks were only able to score one special teams touchdown, as DeVonte Dedmon returned a punt 63 yards for Ottawa’s only score.

In the first game of a Friday night doubleheader, Montreal visited Toronto.  Toronto led 21-10 at the half, and 30-20 with just over a minute left.  Montreal scored a touchdown to make the game closer, but weren’t able to come back, as Toronto defeated Montreal 30-27.  Vernon Adams passed for 382 yards for the Alouettes, and William Stanback rushed for another 133, but neither performance was enough to secure the victory.

And the most exciting game of the week, Saskatchewan squeaked by British Columbia 31-24.  BC led 24-18 with 20 seconds to go in the game, but the Riders were third and goal at the BC 1 yard line.  Cody Fajardo did the old quarterback sneak to tie up the game with 2 seconds left, and Brett Lauther converted to give the Riders a one point lead.  On the resulting kickoff, the Lions fumbled the ball, the Riders picked it up and rumbled into the endzone to put an exclamation mark on the victory!  Final score, Saskatchewan 31, BC 24.

Week 8 Results

Hamilton 24  at Ottawa 7
Montreal 27  at Toronto 30
Saskatchewan 31  at British Columbia 24

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There wasn’t a lot of movement in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings this week.  Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, and Hamilton remain numbers 1, 2, and 3.  Toronto jumped from 6th into a tie for 4th with British Columbia, pushing Calgary down to 6th.  There’s only 23 rating points separating the 4th through 8th teams, so all those teams are pretty close.  Ottawa continues to hold the lowest ranking.  And once again, only the top 3 teams have ratings above the 1500 point average.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1586	6-1, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1555 (▲13)	5-2, 2nd West
3	Hamilton	1543 (▲11)	4-3, T-1st East
T-4 (▲2)	Toronto	1493 (▲11)	4-3, T-1st East
T-4	British Columbia	1493 (▼13)	4-3, 3rd West
6 (▼1)	Calgary	1486	2-5, T-4th West
7 (▲1)	Edmonton	1473	2-4, T-4th West
8 (▼1)	Montreal	1470 (▼11)	2-4, 3rd East
9	Ottawa	1421 (▼11)	1-5, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, as they win it all in 29% of our simulations.  However, that is a drop of 1% from last week.  Hamilton is the second favourite at 26%.  Saskatchewan at 15% and Toronto at 12% are the only other teams with more than a 10% chance of winning.  And lowly Ottawa now has just a 1% chance of taking home the Cup.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1586	29% (▼1)
2	Hamilton	1543	26% (▲3)
3	Saskatchewan	1555	15% (▲3)
4	Toronto	1493	12% (▲2)
5	British Columbia	1493	6% (▼3)
6	Montreal	1470	5% (▼3)
7 (▲1)	Edmonton	1473	2% (▼1)
8 (▲1)	Calgary	1486	2%
9 (▼2)	Ottawa	1421	1% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 6-1 1st in West	1586	>99%	93%	78%	90%	54%	29%
Hamilton 4-3 T-1st in East	1543	97%	90%	60%	82%	49%	26%
Saskatchewan 5-2 2nd in West	1555	96%	77%	15%	63%	28%	15%
Toronto 4-3 T-1st in East	1493	90%	74%	33%	63%	29%	12%
British Columbia 4-3 3rd in West	1493	80%	19%	5%	34%	13%	6%
Montreal 2-4 3rd in East	1470	58%	27%	6%	30%	12%	5%
Edmonton 2-4 T-4th in West	1473	31%	6%	1%	14%	5%	2%
Calgary 2-5 T-4th in West	1486	27%	6%	<1%	12%	5%	2%
Ottawa 1-5 4th in East	1421	21%	9%	1%	10%	4%	1%

Week 9 Game Predictions

Edmonton (50%) at Ottawa (50%)
Winnipeg (55%) at British Columbia (44%)
Montreal (33%) at Hamilton (66%)
Saskatchewan (52%) at Calgary (47%)

After 7 weeks into the season, we’re finally confident that the uncertainty in our predictions due to the cancelled 2020 season has worked itself out, and we’ve got a good feeling about our ratings and predictions now.  This week’s games went pretty much as expected, and there wasn’t a lot of movement with our rankings or probabilities.

Once again, there were four games this week, but this time with two games on Friday and two on Saturday.  In Friday’s early game, Hamilton quarterback David Watford got the win in his first career start, with a 23-17 victory at home over Calgary.  The top scorer in the game, though, was Hamilton kicker Taylor Bertolet, who booted 5 field goals.

In the second game on Friday, Saskatchewan snapped their two game losing streak with a decisive 30-16 victory over the visiting Toronto Argonauts.  The Riders’ William Powell rushed for 122 yards, while quarterback Cody Fajardo passed for two touchdowns and ran in another for the victory.  Despite losing their previous two games, Saskatchewan is now 4-0 against teams that aren’t Winnipeg.

In the first game on Saturday, visiting British Columbia surprised Montreal 27-18.  Michael Reilly passed for 308 yards and two touchdowns for the Lions, while the BC defense set an all-time single-game record with 13 knockdowns.  I didn’t even know that was a statistic that was tracked.

And rounding out the week, top-ranked Winnipeg hammered the Elks in Edmonton 37-22.  Although they were down 16-15 in the third quarter, Winnipeg scored two defensive touchdowns, one on a pick-six on the Edmonton 20 yard line, and another on a fumble recovery on the Edmonton 3.  Winnipeg never looked back after that.

Week 7 Results

Calgary 17  at Hamilton 23
Toronto 16  at Saskatchewan 30
British Columbia 27  at Montreal 18
Winnipeg 37  at Edmonton 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings.  With their 6-1 record, they have increased their lead in the Power Ratings over second-ranked Saskatchewan.  Hamilton, in a tie for 1st in the East, is the top-ranked Eastern team.  With their road upset over Montreal, British Columbia’s rating has risen above the average 1500 rating, and moved them into 4th in the rankings.  Although Ottawa is the bottom ranked team, they closed the gap on teams 5 through 8 by not playing!  Sadly, that might be the best way for Ottawa to move up in the rankings.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1586 (▲11)	6-1, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1542 (▲9)	4-2, T-2nd West
3	Hamilton	1532 (▲10)	3-3, T-1st East
4 (▲2)	British Columbia	1506 (▲14)	4-2, T-2nd West
5 (▼1)	Calgary	1486 (▼10)	2-5, T-4th West
6 (▲1)	Toronto	1482 (▼9)	3-3, T-1st East
7 (▼2)	Montreal	1481 (▼14)	2-3, 3rd East
8	Edmonton	1473 (▼11)	2-4, T-4th West
9	Ottawa	1432	1-4, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, and we’re giving them a season-high 30% chance of winning it all.  In fact, we’ve calculated that they have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs!  Hamilton remains the Eastern team with the best chance of winning, with a 23% chance.  Ottawa, Edmonton, and Calgary all have extremely thin chances of winning, as we’re giving them a 3%, 3%, and 2% chance of winning.

Our numbers show that there is a 56% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, versus 44% for an Eastern team.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1586	30% (▲2)
2	Hamilton	1532	23% (▲5)
3 (▲2)	Saskatchewan	1542	12% (▲1)
4 (▼1)	Toronto	1482	10% (▼2)
5 (▲1)	British Columbia	1506	9% (▲1)
6 (▼2)	Montreal	1481	8% (▼4)
7 (▲2)	Ottawa	1432	3% (▲1)
8 (▼1)	Edmonton	1473	3% (▼2)
9 (▼1)	Calgary	1486	2% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 6-1 1st in West	1586	>99%	93%	75%	89%	54%	30%
Hamilton 3-3 T-1st in East	1532	90%	79%	51%	73%	43%	23%
Saskatchewan 4-2 T-2nd in West	1542	89%	52%	9%	52%	23%	12%
Toronto 3-3 T-1st in East	1482	80%	60%	28%	54%	25%	10%
British Columbia 4-2 T-2nd in West	1506	88%	43%	14%	46%	19%	9%
Montreal 2-3 3rd in East	1481	67%	43%	15%	41%	19%	8%
Ottawa 1-4 4th in East	1432	31%	18%	6%	18%	7%	3%
Edmonton 2-4 T-4th in West	1473	30%	6%	1%	14%	5%	3%
Calgary 2-5 T-4th in West	1486	26%	5%	<1%	12%	5%	2%

Week 8 Game Predictions

Hamilton (56%) at Ottawa (43%)
Montreal (43%) at Toronto (56%)
Saskatchewan (48%) at British Columbia (51%)