Category: CFL

After the third last weekend of the CFL season, unbelievably 8 teams are still in contention for playoff spots!  It should make for an exciting final two weeks!

There were two games on Friday.  The first game saw Montreal head to Ottawa to face the RedBlacks.  In a close game, Montreal beat Ottawa 34-30.  After a high-scoring first half, Ottawa led 24-17, but were held scoreless in the third quarter, while Montreal scored 17 second half points to win the game.  Ottawa had a chance to go ahead late in the game, but quarterback Nick Arbuckle fumbled the ball when he was sacked on the Montreal 39 yard line with 33 seconds left, and Montreal recovered the ball.

The nightcap featured Hamilton travelling to Calgary.  Needing a win to try to prevent a Saskatchewan crossover in the playoffs, Hamilton came through, beating Calgary 35-32.  It was Hamilton’s first win in Calgary since 2004.  In an exciting finish, Calgary took a 32-27 lead on a touchdown with 1:03 left in the game, and on their ensuing possession, Hamilton quickly moved the ball down the field and scored with 11 seconds left to earn the victory.

There were also two games on Saturday.  In the early game, 1st place in the East Toronto travelled to Edmonton to face the 5th place in the West Edmonton.  In a surprisingly close game, Toronto scored 16 4th quarter points to come back to beat Edmonton 28-23.  Toronto scored the winning touchdown with 32 seconds left in the game on a 25 yard run by running back A.J. Ouellette.  Toronto kicker Boris Bede was the star of the game for Toronto as he made all 5 of his field goal attempts, scoring 15 of the Argonauts’ 28 points.  On the Elks side, running back Kevin Brown carried the ball 19 times for 121 yards and a touchdown.

In the last game of the weekend, Winnipeg started their second-string quarterback as they faced British Columbia in Vancouver.  It was a meaningless game for Winnipeg, but very meaningful for BC as they fight with Calgary for 2nd place in the West division and a home playoff game.  In the end, British Columbia defeated Winnipeg 40-32.  In a game with lots of offense, BC scored two pick-6 interceptions to help them to the victory.  On the offensive side of the ball, James Butler rushed 14 times for 104 yards for the Lions, while for Winnipeg, quarterback Dru Brown passed for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns (5 if you count his two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns).  Special teams were exciting as well, with the Bombers’ Janarion Grant returning a punt 94 yards for a touchdown, and 245 total return yards (172 on 5 punt returns and 73 on 4 kickoff returns).  But, he was outdone by the Lions’ Terry Williams who totalled 341 return yards, with 155 on 3 missed field goal returns, one of which was for 90 yards, 152 on 5 kickoff returns, and 34 on 3 punt returns.

Looking at the playoff picture, in the West, Winnipeg has clinched first place, but British Columbia and Calgary are battling it out for second place and a home game in the West Semi-Final.  BC is currently in 2nd spot with an 11-5 record, but the Stampeders are close behind at 10-6.  BC faces bottom-ranked Edmonton next week and top-ranked Winnipeg in the last week, while Calgary has a home-and-home series with struggling Saskatchewan.  We’re giving BC a 90% chance of finishing second.

In the East, 5 teams are still in the hunt for playoff spots in the 4 team division!  Toronto leads with a 10-6 record, and we’re giving them an 80% chance of winning the division.  Montreal is next at 8-8, and they’re the only other team with a chance of winning the East, with a 20% chance.  Hamilton is currently in 3rd with a 6-10 record, but the West’s Saskatchewan still is holding out hope for a cross-over playoff position.  They are also 6-10, but they need to finish with a better record than the 3rd-place East team to cross over.  Finally, Ottawa, at 4-12, still has a chance for a playoff spot.  Hamilton and Ottawa have a home-and-home series to end the season, and Saskatchewan has the same with Calgary.  We’ve calculated that Hamilton has a 77% chance of getting that last spot, followed by Saskatchewan with an 18% chance, and Ottawa at 6% chance.

Week 19 Results

Montreal 34  at Ottawa 30
Hamilton 35  at Calgary 32
Toronto 28  at Edmonton 23
Winnipeg 32  at British Columbia 40

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There wasn’t much change in our rankings, only Hamilton and Saskatchewan changing spots for 6th and 7th.  Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team, with Calgary the second best, despite trailing 4th-ranked British Columbia in the standings.  Toronto continues to be the top Eastern team, with a very respectable 1546 rating.  Ottawa and Edmonton are battling it out for the worst ranking, with Edmonton currently the worst team with 1401 rating points, but Ottawa is only one rating point ahead at 1402!

 

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1624 (▼15)	14-3, 1st West
2	Calgary	1553 (▼17)	10-6, 3rd West
3	Toronto	1546 (▲10)	10-6, 1st East
4	British Columbia	1542 (▲15)	11-5, 2nd West
5	Montreal	1502 (▲12)	8-8, 2nd East
6 (▲1)	Hamilton	1488 (▲18)	6-10, 3rd East
7 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1473	6-10, 4th West
8	Ottawa	1402 (▼11)	4-12, 4th East
9	Edmonton	1401 (▼10)	4-13, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, with a 40% chance.  Their chances dropped 3% from last week based on their loss to BC this weekend, although they did start their second-string quarterback.  But, if 1st-stringer Zach Collaros goes down, they’ll need to rely on their backup.  Toronto is the favourite from the East, now with a 24% chance, up 1% from last week.  Grey Cup host Saskatchewan continues to see their hopes fade, with only a 3% chance of making the game, and a 1% chance of winning it.

Overall, there’s a 61% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 4% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 18% chance of 4th-place Saskatchewan crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 15% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1624	40% (▼3)
2	Toronto	1546	24% (▲1)
3 (▲1)	Montreal	1502	11% (▲2)
4 (▲1)	British Columbia	1542	10% (▲3)
5 (▼2)	Calgary	1553	9% (▼3)
6	Hamilton	1488	5% (▲2)
7	Saskatchewan	1473	1% (▼1)
8	Ottawa	1402	<1%
9	Edmonton	1401	—

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 14-3, 1st in West	1624	✔	✔	✔	✔	65%	40%
Toronto 10-6, 1st in East	1546	✔	✔	80%	92%	56%	24%
Montreal 8-8, 2nd in East	1502	✔	✔	20%	66%	28%	11%
British Columbia 11-5, 2nd in West	1542	✔	90%	—	54%	18%	10%
Calgary 10-6, 3rd in West	1553	✔	10%	—	46%	16%	9%
Hamilton 6-10, 3rd in East	1488	77%	—	—	32%	12%	5%
Saskatchewan 6-10, 4th in West	1473	18%	—	—	7%	3%	1%
Ottawa 4-12, 4th in East	1402	6%	—	—	2%	1%	<1%
Edmonton 4-13, 5th in West	1401	—	—	—	—	—	—

Week 20 Game Predictions

Friday’s games

• Ottawa (31%) at Hamilton (68%)
• British Columbia (62%) at Edmonton (37%)

Saturday’s games

• Toronto (49%) at Montreal (50%)
• Calgary (53%) at Saskatchewan (46%)

Thanksgiving weekend!  While the rest of us were eating turkey, 8 of the CFL teams were playing football.  I guess Calgary was probably eating turkey, too, or maybe getting ready for the stretch run.  With unseasonably warm temperatures, it doesn’t quite feel like the regular season is nearing an end, but there’s just three weeks left!

The weekend started with Friday Night Football, with Saskatchewan travelling to Hamilton.  This game was a must-win for both teams, as they are both battling for the last playoff spot in the East, with Saskatchewan hoping for the cross-over from the West division.  In an unimpressive outing for both teams, Hamilton beat Saskatchewan 18-14.  The outstanding offensive player of the game was Hamilton’s running back Wes Hills, who amassed 132 yards on 25 carries.  Roughriders QB Cody Fajardo completed 24 of 31 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns, despite being sacked seven times!  He also led the Riders with 22 (yes, that’s right, only 22) yards rushing.  The win sees Hamilton’s chances of making the playoffs increase from 32% to 56%, while Saskatchewan’s decreased from 64% to 33%.

Saturday saw two games, with the first featuring British Columbia playing in Toronto.  In an exciting finish, Toronto defeated BC 23-20.  With just under 3 minutes to play, Toronto scored a touchdown to take the lead 23-20.  In response, BC marched down the field and, with about a minute and a half left, gave kicker Sean Whyte the opportunity to tie the game with a 41 yard field goal, but he hit the upright!  Toronto then ran out the clock to seal the victory.  Toronto quarterback McLead Bethel-Thompson passed for 352 yards and a touchdown, completing 27 of his 40 passing attempts.

In the nightcap, Edmonton faced a tough battle as they headed to Winnipeg to face the top team in the league.  In a completely expected result, Winnipeg trounced Edmonton 48-11.  With the win, Winnipeg clinched first place in the West, and Edmonton has now been eliminated from playoff contention.  Winnipeg scored touchdowns on their first four possessions of the game.  Three Winnipeg quarterbacks passed for touchdowns, with Zach Collaros throwing 3, Dur Brown throwing one for 65 yards, and Dakota Prukop getting the other for 24 yards.

The final game of the weekend took place on Thanksgiving Monday, with Ottawa playing in Montreal.  In a surprise, Ottawa beat Montreal 24-18.  For Ottawa, quarterback Nick Arbuckle completed 28 of his 32 passes for 229 yards; his Montreal counterpart Trevor Harris completed 30 of 38 of his own for 338 yards and a touchdown.  Ottawa running back Caleb Evans carried the ball 7 times, amassing a total of 11 yards, with his longest run being 3 yards, but he did score both of Ottawa’s touchdowns!

Week 18 Results

Saskatchewan 14  at Hamilton 18
British Columbia 20  at Toronto 23
Edmonton 11  at Winnipeg 48
Ottawa 24  at Montreal 18

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg remains at the top of the McDonald CFL Power Ratings, and they look exceptionally powerful heading into the last 3 weekends of the season, with a huge 69 rating point lead over 2nd-best Calgary.  Toronto is the top team in the East, passing British Columbia to take over 3rd spot in the rankings.  With Ottawa’s win and Edmonton’s loss, Edmonton is now seen as the weakest team in the league.  I should stop bashing the East, as 2 of the bottom 4 teams come from the West.

 

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1639 (▲4)	14-2, 1st West
2	Calgary	1570	10-5, T-2nd West
3 (▲1)	Toronto	1536 (▲11)	9-6, 1st East
4 (▼1)	British Columbia	1527 (▼11)	10-5, T-2nd West
5	Montreal	1490 (▼18)	7-8, 2nd East
6	Saskatchewan	1473 (▼12)	6-10, 4th West
7	Hamilton	1470 (▲12)	5-10, 3rd East
8 (▲1)	Ottawa	1413 (▲18)	4-11, 4th East
9 (▼1)	Edmonton	1411 (▼4)	4-12, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the McDonald CFL Power Ratings favourite to win the Grey Cup, as we’re now giving them a 43% chance of winning it all.  They’ve clinched first place in the West, giving them a playoff bye and home field advantage in the West final.  Top choice from the East is Toronto, who we’re giving a 23% chance of winning the Grey Cup.  We’re giving them an 85% chance of winning the East.

Saskatchewan’s chances continue to plummet, as we’re now only giving them a 2% chance of winning it.  Too bad, as the game is being held in Regina this year.  With their loss to Hamilton this week, their only chance of making the playoffs now is with the crossover, meaning they’ll need to finish with a better record than the third place team in the East.  The chances of that happening dropped from 65% to 33%; they are also the only team that could get the crossover.

Overall, there’s a 65% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 33% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 32% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

 

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1639	43% (▲2)
2	Toronto	1536	23% (▲4)
3 (▲1)	Calgary	1570	12% (▲1)
4 (▼1)	Montreal	1490	9% (▼4)
5	British Columbia	1527	7% (▼2)
6 (▲1)	Hamilton	1470	3% (▲1)
7 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1473	2% (▼3)
8	Ottawa	1413	<1%
9 (▼1)	Edmonton	1411	—

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 14-2, 1st in West	1639	✔	✔	✔	✔	67%	43%
Toronto 9-6, 1st in East	1536	✔	✔	85%	94%	58%	23%
Calgary 10-5, T-2nd in West	1570	✔	58%	—	57%	20%	12%
Montreal 7-8, 2nd in East	1490	99%	95%	15%	63%	26%	9%
British Columbia 10-5, T-2nd in West	1527	✔	42%	—	43%	13%	7%
Hamilton 5-10, 3rd in East	1470	56%	2%	—	24%	9%	3%
Saskatchewan 6-10, 4th in West	1473	33%	—	—	14%	5%	2%
Ottawa 4-11, 4th in East	1413	12%	3%	—	5%	2%	<1%
Edmonton 4-12, 5th in West	1411	—	—	—	—	—	—

Week 19 Game Predictions

Friday: Montreal (53%) at Ottawa (46%)
Friday: Hamilton (43%) at Calgary (56%)
Saturday: Toronto (60%) at Edmonton (39%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (58%) at British Columbia (41%)

I haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Winnipeg defeat Saskatchewan, again, 31-13
Friday: Ottawa continues dismal season, losing 34-19 to British Columbia
Saturday: Edmonton continues dismal season, losing 25-18 to Montreal
Saturday: Toronto scores two rouges, but loses to Calgary 29-2

Week 17 Results

Saskatchewan 13  at Winnipeg 31
Ottawa 19  at British Columbia 34
Montreal 25  at Edmonton 18
Toronto 2 at Calgary 29

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1635 (▲6)	13-2, 1st West
2	Calgary	1570 (▲10)	10-5, T-2nd West
3 (▲1)	British Columbia	1538 (▲7)	10-4, T-2nd West
4 (▼1)	Toronto	1525 (▼10)	8-6, 1st East
5	Montreal	1508 (▲12)	7-7, 2nd East
6	Saskatchewan	1485 (▼6)	6-9, 4th West
7	Hamilton	1458	4-10, 3rd East
8	Edmonton	1415 (▼12)	4-11, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1395 (▼6)	3-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 65% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 6% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1635	41% (▲1)
2	Toronto	1525	19% (▼4)
3	Montreal	1508	13% (▲3)
4 (▼1)	Calgary	1570	11% (▲1)
5	British Columbia	1538	9%
6	Saskatchewan	1485	5%
7	Hamilton	1458	2% (▲1)
T-8	Ottawa	1395	<1%
T-8	Edmonton	1415	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 13-2, 1st in West	1635	✔	>99%	94%	98%	64%	41%
Toronto 8-6, 1st in East	1525	✔	>99%	72%	89%	50%	19%
Montreal 7-7, 2nd in East	1508	>99%	99%	28%	70%	34%	13%
Calgary 10-5, T-2nd in West	1570	✔	42%	<1%	53%	19%	11%
British Columbia 10-4, T-2nd in West	1538	✔	58%	6%	49%	17%	9%
Saskatchewan 6-9, 4th in West	1485	64%	—	—	27%	11%	5%
Hamilton 4-10, 3rd in East	1458	32%	<1%	<1%	13%	5%	2%
Ottawa 3-11, 4th in East	1395	4%	1%	—	1%	<1%	<1%
Edmonton 4-11, 5th in West	1415	<1%	—	—	<1%	<1%	<1%

Week 18 Game Predictions

Friday: Saskatchewan (47%) at Hamilton (52%)
Saturday: British Columbia (45%) at Toronto (54%)
Saturday: Edmonton (17%) at Winnipeg (82%)
Monday: Ottawa (28%) at Montreal (71%)

I haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Montreal defeats Hamilton 23-16
Saturday: Toronto clinch playoff spot by thumping Ottawa 45-15
Saturday: Calgary gets revenge on BC for last week’s OT loss, winning 25-11

Week 16 Results

Hamilton 16  at Montreal 23
Toronto 45  at Ottawa 15
Calgary 25  at British Columbia 11

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1629	12-2, 1st West
2	Calgary	1560 (▲14)	9-5, T-2nd West
3 (▲1)	Toronto	1535 (▲10)	8-5, 1st East
4 (▼1)	British Columbia	1531 (▼14)	9-4, T-2nd West
5 (▲1)	Montreal	1496 (▲10)	6-7, 2nd East
6 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1491	6-8, 4th West
7	Hamilton	1458 (▼10)	4-10, 3rd East
8	Edmonton	1427	4-10, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1401 (▼10)	3-10, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 71% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (up 7% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (down 1% from last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1629	40%
2	Toronto	1535	23% (▲2)
T-3 (▲1)	Calgary	1560	10% (▲1)
T-3 (▲1)	Montreal	1496	10% (▲1)
5 (▼2)	British Columbia	1531	9% (▼3)
6	Saskatchewan	1491	5%
7	Hamilton	1458	1% (▼2)
T-8	Ottawa	1401	<1% (▼1)
T-8 (▲1)	Edmonton	1427	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 12-2, 1st in West	1629	✔	>99%	94%	97%	64%	40%
Toronto 8-5, 1st in East	1535	✔	>99%	82%	92%	55%	23%
Calgary 9-5, T-2nd in West	1560	✔	39%	<1%	53%	19%	10%
Montreal 6-7, 2nd in East	1496	96%	94%	18%	62%	27%	10%
British Columbia 9-4, T-2nd in West	1531	✔	61%	6%	50%	17%	9%
Saskatchewan 6-8, 4th in West	1491	69%	<1%	—	31%	12%	5%
Hamilton 4-10, 3rd in East	1458	25%	2%	<1%	11%	4%	1%
Ottawa 3-10, 4th in East	1401	7%	4%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%
Edmonton 4-10, 5th in West	1427	2%	—	—	1%	<1%	<1%

Week 17 Game Predictions

Friday: Saskatchewan (25%) at Winnipeg (74%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at British Columbia (73%)
Saturday: Montreal (52%) at Edmonton (47%)
Saturday: Toronto (39%) at Calgary (60%)

I haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Edmonton squeak by Saskatchewan 26-24, first win at Mosaic Stadium since 2015
Saturday: Hamilton surprises Winnipeg 48-31
Saturday: British Columbia defeats Calgary 31-29 in overtime

Week 15 Results

Edmonton 26  at Saskatchewan 24
Winnipeg 31  at Hamilton 48
British Columbia 31  at Calgary 29 (OT)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1629 (▼17)	12-2, 1st West
2	Calgary	1546 (▼15)	8-5, 3rd West
3	British Columbia	1545 (▲16)	9-3, 2nd West
4	Toronto	1525	7-5, 1st East
5	Saskatchewan	1491 (▼17)	6-8, 4th West
6	Montreal	1486	5-7, 2nd East
7	Hamilton	1468 (▲18)	4-9, 3rd East
8	Edmonton	1427 (▲18)	4-10, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1411	3-9, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 4% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 64% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 23% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1629	40% (▼4)
2	Toronto	1525	21% (▲1)
3 (▲1)	British Columbia	1545	12% (▲4)
T-4	Montreal	1486	9% (▲1)
T-4 (▼1)	Calgary	1546	9% (▼2)
6	Saskatchewan	1491	5% (▼2)
7	Hamilton	1468	3% (▲2)
8 (▼1)	Ottawa	1411	1%
9	Edmonton	1427	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 12-2, 1st in West	1629	✔	>99%	89%	96%	62%	40%
Toronto 7-5, 1st in East	1525	>99%	99%	81%	91%	54%	21%
British Columbia 9-3, 2nd in West	1545	>99%	81%	11%	58%	22%	12%
Montreal 5-7, 2nd in East	1486	83%	72%	18%	53%	24%	9%
Calgary 8-5, 3rd in West	1546	>99%	19%	<1%	46%	16%	9%
Saskatchewan 6-8, 4th in West	1491	63%	55%	—	28%	11%	5%
Hamilton 4-9, 3rd in East	1468	39%	20%	<1%	20%	8%	3%
Ottawa 3-9, 4th in East	1411	14%	9%	1%	7%	3%	1%
Edmonton 4-10, 5th in West	1427	2%	—	—	1%	<1%	<1%

Week 16 Game Predictions

Friday: Hamilton (40%) at Montreal (59%)
Saturday: Toronto (58%) at Ottawa (41%)
Saturday: Calgary (43%) at British Columbia (56%)

I haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Montreal defeat British Columbia 31-10
Saturday: Toronto defeat Ottawa 24-19
Saturday: Winnipeg thump Saskatchewan 54-20 in Banjo Bowl
Saturday: Calgary doubles Edmonton 56-28 in Battle of Alberta rematch

Week 14 Results

British Columbia 10  at Montreal 31
Toronto 24  at Ottawa 19
Saskatchewan 20  at Winnipeg 54
Calgary 56  at Edmonton 28

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1646 (▲7)	12-1, 1st West
2	Calgary	1561 (▲10)	8-4, T-2nd West
3	British Columbia	1529 (▼13)	8-3, T-2nd West
4 (▲1)	Toronto	1525 (▲11)	7-5, 1st East
5 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1508 (▼7)	6-7, 4th West
6	Montreal	1486 (▲13)	5-7, 2nd East
7	Hamilton	1450	3-9, T-3rd East
8	Ottawa	1411 (▼11)	3-9, T-3rd East
9	Edmonton	1409 (▼9)	3-10, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s an 87% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 3% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1646	44% (▲2)
2	Toronto	1525	20% (▲2)
3 (▲1)	Calgary	1561	11% (▲1)
T-4 (▲2)	Montreal	1486	8% (▲1)
T-4 (▼1)	British Columbia	1529	8% (▼3)
6 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1508	7% (▼1)
T-7 (▲1)	Hamilton	1450	1%
T-7	Ottawa	1411	1% (▼1)
9	Edmonton	1409	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 12-1, 1st in West	1646	✔	>99%	96%	99%	67%	44%
Toronto 7-5, 1st in East	1525	99%	99%	81%	91%	53%	20%
Calgary 8-4, T-2nd in West	1561	>99%	49%	<1%	54%	19%	11%
Montreal 5-7, 2nd in East	1486	84%	79%	19%	54%	24%	8%
British Columbia 8-3, T-2nd in West	1529	>99%	51%	3%	47%	15%	8%
Saskatchewan 6-7, 4th in West	1508	86%	1%	—	40%	16%	7%
Hamilton 3-9, T-3rd in East	1450	17%	11%	<1%	9%	3%	1%
Ottawa 3-9, T-3rd in East	1411	13%	11%	<1%	7%	2%	1%
Edmonton 3-10, 5th in West	1409	1%	<1%	—	<1%	<1%	<1%

Week 15 Game Predictions

Edmonton (30%) at Saskatchewan (69%)
Winnipeg (69%) at Hamilton (30%)
British Columbia (38%) at Calgary (61%)

I’ve been away for a few weeks, on a transatlantic cruise from Southampton, England to New York.  The cruise was great, but the internet access on the boat was horrendous, and as a result, I have fallen behind on my CFL Power Ratings reports.  Apparently, the boys in the back room have been goofing off while I was away! 🙂  Anyways, I’m back now, and am slowly working to catch up on the reports.  Here’s the report for Week 13, better late than never!

It was Labour Day weekend in Canada, and that means classic confrontations!

On Friday, Ottawa, who has pretty much stunk all year, visited Montreal to play the Alouettes.  In a surprise, Ottawa defeated Montreal 38-24 on the road.  Ottawa quarterback Nick Arbuckle, despite completing only 20 of his 31 passes, threw for a total of 313 yards and a touchdown.  His favourite receiver in this game was Jaelon Acklin, who caught 7 passes for 159 yards.  The Ottawa defense came up big, forcing four turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

There were no games on Saturday, but Sunday featured the Labour Day Classic in Regina, as Saskatchewan hosted their prairie rivals, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  In a low-scoring, close game, Winnipeg beat Saskatchewan 20-18.  The Riders usually play well in their biggest game of the regular season, but it wasn’t enough to defeat the league’s-best Bombers.  Winnipeg kicker Marc Liegghio booted a 55-yard field goal with 3 minutes left to take the lead, and a Winnipeg interception at their own 14 yard line sealed the win for the Bombers.

Labour Day Monday saw a doubleheader being played.  In the first game, Toronto headed to Hamilton to take on the Ticats.  Toronto hasn’t won the Labour Day clash in ten years, but they changed that, as Toronto rolled over Hamilton 28-8.  It might have been expected, as Hamilton’s first- and second-string quarterbacks were both unavailable due to injury.  The game was knotted at 8 after the first half, but Toronto held Hamilton scoreless in the second half, and scored two 4th-quarter touchdowns to put the game away.

The final game of the weekend saw hapless Edmonton head south to Calgary to face the Stampeders.  In the Battle of Alberta, Calgary beat Edmonton 26-18.  The game was much closer than expected, with Edmonton leading 8-7 at the half, but 15 Stampeder points in the 3rd quarter put Calgary in front to stay.

Week 13 Results

Ottawa 38  at Montreal 24
Winnipeg 20  at Saskatchewan 18
Toronto 28  at Hamilton 8
Edmonton 18  at Calgary 26

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week, although with Ottawa’s surprising win over Montreal, they’ve moved out of the lowest spot in our rankings; that dishonour is now held by Edmonton.  The top 4 teams continue to be from the West, with Winnipeg by far the strongest team with their 11-1 record.  Toronto is the top-ranked team in the East, and the only Eastern team with a rating above the average of 1500.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1639 (▲11)	11-1, 1st West
2	Calgary	1551 (▲7)	7-4, 3rd West
3	British Columbia	1542	8-2, 2nd West
4	Saskatchewan	1515 (▼11)	6-6, 4th West
5	Toronto	1514 (▲11)	6-5, 1st East
6	Montreal	1473 (▼17)	4-7, 2nd East
7	Hamilton	1450 (▼13)	3-9, T-3rd East
8 (▲1)	Ottawa	1422 (▲17)	3-8, T-3rd East
9 (▼1)	Edmonton	1418 (▼7)	3-9, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains our favourite to win the Grey Cup; the boys in the back room have now calculated that they have a 42% chance of winning it!  They clinched a playoff spot this week, the first and only team to do so.

Toronto is our second favourite to win the Cup; being the top team in the East really increases the chances of making it to the final, and anything can happen in the Grey Cup game!  With their loss to lowly Ottawa, Montreal took a big drop, down from 11% chance to 7%.  And lowly Ottawa, with their big win, have actually moved up to the 7th-favourite, moving ahead of Hamilton who they are currently tied with, although the RedBlacks do have a game in hand.

Overall, there’s a 71% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 90% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (same as last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1639	42% (▲3)
2	Toronto	1514	18% (▲3)
3	British Columbia	1542	11% (▼1)
4 (▲1)	Calgary	1551	10%
5 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1515	8%
6 (▼2)	Montreal	1473	7% (▼4)
7 (▲1)	Ottawa	1422	2% (▲1)
8 (▼1)	Hamilton	1450	1% (▼2)
9	Edmonton	1418	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 11-1, 1st in West	1639	✔	>99%	91%	97%	64%	42%
Toronto 6-5, 1st in East	1514	96%	95%	77%	87%	50%	18%
British Columbia 8-2, 2nd in West	1542	>99%	67%	9%	54%	19%	11%
Calgary 7-4, 3rd in West	1551	>99%	32%	<1%	50%	18%	10%
Saskatchewan 6-6, 4th in West	1515	88%	1%	<1%	42%	18%	8%
Montreal 4-7, 2nd in East	1473	68%	64%	17%	43%	20%	7%
Ottawa 3-8, T-3rd in East	1422	27%	25%	5%	16%	7%	2%
Hamilton 3-9, T-3rd in East	1450	19%	15%	<1%	10%	4%	1%
Edmonton 3-9, 5th in West	1418	2%	<1%	—	1%	<1%	<1%

Week 14 Game Predictions

British Columbia (52%) at Montreal (47%)
Toronto (55%) at Ottawa (44%)
Saskatchewan (27%) at Winnipeg (72%)
Calgary (61%) at Edmonton (38%)

It was the penultimate weekend of the summer, and the CFL had four games on the schedule.  In Thursday Night Football, Calgary looked to close the gap against Winnipeg, but it was not to be, as Winnipeg defeated Calgary in a close game, 31-29.  Quarterback Zach Collaros led the Bombers with a 19-for-26, 294 yard, two touchdown (but two interceptions) effort, helped out by receivers Nic Demski’s eight catches for 117 yards and a touchdown, and Greg McCrae’s five catches for 95 yards and another touchdown.  Calgary’s QB Jake Maier, making his first start of the season, was equally, if not more, impressive, going 23 for 28 for 294 yards and three touchdowns, and receiver Henry Malik caught 7 of those passes for 122 yards and three touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough.

There was a doubleheader on Friday.  The early game featured 3-7 Hamilton travelling to Toronto to face the 4-5 first place Argos.  Featured?  Come on, McDonald CFL Power Ratings author, get serious.  Well, whatever — Toronto beat Hamilton 37-20.  Despite being down 16-10 at the half, the Toronto defense, led by DB Jamal Peters three interceptions, one of which was returned for a 67 yard touchdown, held Hamilton to 4 second half points and Toronto racked up 27 of their own for the victory.  Argonaut quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson went 19-for-32 for 258 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, while Hamilton’s QB tandem of Dane Evans and Matt Shiltz combined for 32-for-45, 388 yards, one touchdown, but three interceptions.

Friday’s late game saw Saskatchewan travel to British Columbia.  The wheels on the Rider bus have come off lately, but they were looking to turn things around against Nathan Rourke-less BC, who lost their quarterback to injury last week.  In a welcome turnaround for Rider fans, Saskatchewan defeated British Columbia 23-16.  Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo looked good (finally), going 19-for-24 for 321 yards and two touchdowns.  He was helped by receiver Kian Schaffer-Baker, who caught 5 passes for 170 yards, and backup running back Frankie Hickson (playing for an injured Jamal Morrow) who picked up 129 yards on 15 carries and caught 3 passes for another 30 yards.  BC’s backup quarterback Michael O’Connor didn’t have an impressive performance, going 6 for 15 for 94 yards before being injured in the second quarter, and his replacement, Antonio Pipkin, also didn’t look good, going 9 for 17 for 112 yards and a touchdown.

The weekend ended with two last place teams facing each other, with Eastern laggard Ottawa heading to Edmonton to face the Western laggard Elks.  In a game of interest to maybe only the players’ parents, Ottawa beat Edmonton 25-18.  Ottawa scored three touchdowns in the first half to hold a 20-3 lead, and their defense was able to hold Edmonton to 15 points in the second half for the win.  Ottawa’s Nate Behar had four catches for 101 yards, while Kenny Lawler of the Elks caught three for 146 yards.

Week 12 Results

Calgary 29  at Winnipeg 31
Hamilton 20  at Toronto  37
Saskatchewan 23  at British Columbia 16
Ottawa 25  at Edmonton 18

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week, as the only change was Calgary and British Columbia swapping spots in 2nd and 3rd.  Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the league, by far.  The top 4 teams are all from the West, with the top-ranked Eastern team, Toronto, just barely above the 1500 rating point “average” line.  With Ottawa’s win over Edmonton, they’ve gone back above the 1400 point “stink” line.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1628 (▲9)	10-1, 1st West
2 (▲1)	Calgary	1544 (▼8)	6-4, T-3rd West
3 (▼1)	British Columbia	1542 (▼16)	8-2, 2nd West
4	Saskatchewan	1526 (▲16)	6-5, T-3rd West
5	Toronto	1501 (▲10)	5-5, 1st East
6	Montreal	1490	4-6, 2nd East
7	Hamilton	1463 (▼10)	3-8, 3rd East
8	Edmonton	1425 (▼16)	3-8, 5th East
9	Ottawa	1405 (▲16)	2-8, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, and with their win over Calgary and British Columbia’s loss to Saskatchewan, their odds are now at 39%, up 4% from last week.  That loss to Saskatchewan pushed British Columbia down to a 12% chance of winning it, still 2nd-best from the West but now 3rd-best in the league, behind Toronto at 15%.  Saskatchewan, with a 6th-best chance of 9%, have their chances bolstered by being the team most likely to crossover in the playoffs, with a 58% chance of that happening.  Of course, that would mean that they finish 4th in the West, but then they would get to face the weaker Eastern teams in the playoffs, albeit on the road.

Overall, there’s a 71% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 90% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (up from 82% last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1628	39% (▲4)
2 (▲1)	Toronto	1501	15% (▲2)
3 (▼1)	British Columbia	1542	12% (▼4)
4	Montreal	1490	11% (▼1)
5	Calgary	1544	10% (▼1)
6	Saskatchewan	1526	9% (▲2)
7	Hamilton	1463	3% (▼2)
8	Ottawa	1405	1%
9 (▼1)	Edmonton	1425	<1% (▼1)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 10-1, 1st in West	1628	>99%	98%	85%	94%	60%	39%
Toronto 5-5, 1st in East	1501	91%	90%	59%	75%	41%	15%
British Columbia 8-2, 2nd in West	1542	>99%	71%	13%	56%	22%	12%
Montreal 4-6, 2nd in East	1490	81%	79%	35%	60%	30%	11%
Calgary 6-4, T-3rd in West	1544	97%	26%	1%	49%	18%	10%
Saskatchewan 6-5, T-3rd in West	1526	90%	5%	1%	43%	18%	9%
Hamilton 3-8, 3rd in East	1463	25%	20%	3%	15%	7%	3%
Ottawa 2-8, 4th in East	1405	12%	11%	3%	7%	3%	1%
Edmonton 3-8, 5th in West	1425	3%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	<1%

Week 13 Game Predictions

Friday: Ottawa (31%) at Montreal (68%)
Sunday: Winnipeg (56%) at Saskatchewan (43%)
Monday: Toronto (48%) at Hamilton (51%)
Monday: Edmonton (27%) at Calgary (72%)

We’re just over half way in the CFL season, and Winnipeg, although still the odds-on favourite to win the Grey Cup, no longer looks like a sure thing with British Columbia chomping on their heels.  The East, despite being by far the weaker division, is very close, and any team that makes it to the Grey Cup has a chance of winning it.

But on to this week’s games.  There were two doubleheaders this weekend, one on Friday and another on Saturday.  In Friday’s first game, the worst team in the West faced the worst team in the East.  As might be expected, Edmonton defeated Ottawa 30-12.  Although Ottawa led 12-9 at the half, Edmonton exploded for 21 unanswered points in the second half for the victory.  There were no real standout players in this game, other than Ottawa kicker Lewis Ward who kicked two rouges in the game.  That’s pretty sad to be the highlight.

The second game on Friday saw British Columbia head to Saskatchewan for a rematch of last week’s game.  Different location, same result, as BC defeated Saskatchewan 28-10.  Nathan Rourke, BC’s quarterback, had another standout game, going 22 for 31 for 375 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 63 more yards.  Unfortunately for BC, he got hurt in the fourth quarter and looks like he’ll be needing surgery.  It will be interesting to see if BC can continue their strong season without their star quarterback.  For BC’s receiving corps, Lucky Whitehead had nine catches for 136 yards and a touchdown, and Dominique Rhymes had six catches of his own for 127 yards.  Rider starting QB Cody Fajardo was looking unimpressive, and was pulled in the second quarter in favour of Mason Fine.  We’ll see who gets the start next week for Saskatchewan.

On Saturday, the day started with a tilt between Hamilton and Montreal in Montreal.  Although the Tiger-Cats led 25-18 after three quarters, Montreal came back to defeat Hamilton 29-28.  Montreal kicker David Cote split the uprights with a 48-yard field goal as time ran out to give the Als the victory.  At QB, Trevor Harris led Montreal, going 24 for 31 for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception.  On the other side of the ball, Matt Shiltz also had an impressive game, going 27 for 39 for 303 yards and two touchdowns.

In the final game of the weekend, Calgary headed out to Toronto to face the Argonauts.  In a close contest, Calgary came out the victors, defeating Toronto 22-19.  Behind 19-10 after late in the third quarter, Calgary’s defense came up big, holding Toronto scoreless the rest of the way, as well as scoring a 62 yard pick-six touchdown.  Jake Maier, who replaced Bo Levi Mitchell as quarterback at the halfway point for Calgary, went 14 for 18 for 149 yards but one interception, and Shawn Bane led the receivers with four catches for 129 yards.  For the Argos, McLeod Bethel-Thompson went 27 for 43 for 276 yards and an interception, and A.J. Ouellette caught 7 of those passes for 92 yards.

Week 11 Results

Edmonton 30  at Ottawa 12
British Columbia 28  at Saskatchewan 10
Hamilton 28  at Montreal 29
Calgary 22  at Toronto 19

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Top team Winnipeg was idle this week, but are so far ahead in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings that they continue to be ranked #1.  British Columbia continues their climb up the ratings, remaining number 2 in the rankings, but with the loss of quarterback Nathan Rourke, we’ll see if they can continue their strong run.  Calgary and Saskatchewan round out the top 4, as all top 4 teams are from the West.  Toronto, the top team in the East, dropped below the 1500 average rating mark, but continue to hold 5th spot.  The only change in the rankings saw Montreal and Hamilton swap places, and Montreal is now just 1 rating point behind Toronto.  Montreal and Toronto are tied for first in the East, although Toronto has one game in hand.  Edmonton remains in 8th, and lowly Ottawa remains the lowest-ranked team, once again dropping below the 1400 point “stink line.”

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1619	9-1, 1st West
2	British Columbia	1558 (▲14)	8-1, 2nd West
3	Calgary	1552  (▲13)	6-3, 3rd West
4	Saskatchewan	1510 (▼13)	5-5, 4th West
5	Toronto	1491 (▼13)	4-5, T-1st East
6 (▲1)	Montreal	1490 (▲11)	4-6, T-1st East
7 (▼1)	Hamilton	1473 (▼11)	3-7, 3rd East
8	Edmonton	1441 (▲14)	3-7, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1389 (▼13)	1-8, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, although British Columbia is slowly closing the gap.  We’re giving Winnipeg a 35% chance of winning it all, and BC a 16% chance, which has moved the Lions up to our second-favoured team.  Toronto has the best chance from the East, with a 13% chance, although Montreal is just behind at 12%.  Saskatchewan, who will be hosting the Grey Cup this year, have seen their chances drop to 7%, with Calgary third-favourite from the West at 11%.  Hamilton can’t be counted out of the East, although we figure they’ve only got a 5% chance of winning it.  Rounding out the list are Edmonton and Ottawa, both with just a 1% chance.

Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 2% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s an 82% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (same as last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (also same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1619	35% (▼1)
2 (▲1)	British Columbia	1558	16% (▲2)
3 (▼1)	Toronto	1491	13% (▼3)
4 (▲2)	Montreal	1490	12% (▲4)
5 (▼1)	Calgary	1552	11% (▲2)
6 (▼2)	Saskatchewan	1510	7% (▼2)
7	Hamilton	1473	5% (▼2)
T-8 (▲1)	Edmonton	1441	1% (▲1)
T-8	Ottawa	1389	1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 9-1, 1st in West	1619	>99%	95%	71%	88%	54%	35%
British Columbia 8-1, 2nd in West	1558	>99%	77%	25%	63%	27%	16%
Toronto 4-5, T-1st in East	1491	81%	77%	47%	65%	35%	13%
Montreal 4-6, T-1st in East	1490	83%	78%	40%	62%	32%	12%
Calgary 6-3, 3rd in West	1552	97%	26%	4%	48%	19%	11%
Saskatchewan 5-5, 4th in West	1510	73%	2%	<1%	34%	14%	7%
Hamilton 3-7, 3rd in East	1473	45%	38%	12%	30%	14%	5%
Edmonton 3-7, 5th in West	1441	12%	<1%	<1%	5%	2%	1%
Ottawa 1-8, 4th in East	1389	8%	7%	2%	5%	2%	1%

Week 12 Game Predictions

Thursday: Calgary (34%) at Winnipeg (65%)
Friday: Hamilton (40%) at Toronto (59%)
Friday: Saskatchewan (36%) at British Columbia (63%)
Saturday: Ottawa (36%) at Edmonton (63%)