After lots of travelling, I’m finally back to producing my McDonald NHL Power Ratings! And look, at the top, nothing has changed!
The top ranked team in our ratings continues to be Boston, although their rating has dropped a bit in the last week, as they lost their only game of the week, a 2-1 loss to 19th-ranked Washington. But still, they’re sitting at 1628 rating points, 40 points ahead of the next-highest-ranked team, Carolina. Their 39-8-5 record remains the best in the NHL, and we’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 83% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 18% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
The #2 team in our rankings continues to be Carolina, who lost their only game of the week to the surging New York Rangers. They are sitting with 1588 rating points, and with a 34-10-8 record, best in the Metropolitan Division, they’ve got a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 11% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Tampa Bay is ranked third, the same as last week. Despite being ranked third overall, they are currently in 3rd place in that tough Atlantic Division with a 34-16-2 record, two points behind Toronto but with two games in hand. They had a mixed week, playing four games, losing to 12th-ranked Florida, losing in overtime to 26th-ranked San Jose, but turning it around and beating 15th-ranked Colorado and 7th-ranked Dallas. We’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 2% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
The New York Rangers jumped up 3 spots in our rankings to 4th, after going 4-0-0 this past week. They started the week with an overtime win against 10th-ranked Calgary, then followed it with 3 regulation wins, over 27th-ranked Vancouver, 13th-ranked Seattle, and 2nd-ranked Carolina. Our calculations and simulations are giving them a 98% chance of making the playoffs, a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Rounding out the top 5 is Toronto, who dropped one spot in the rankings. They split their games this week, a home-and-home series against 30th-ranked Columbus, with a victory on the road and a loss at home. They have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
The biggest upward mover this week was Vegas, who went 3-0-0 and gained 22 rating points, moving up from 20th to 15th in our rankings. Despite such a low ranking, they are in 1st place in the Pacific Division! Their three victories this week came against 18th-ranked Nashville, 17th-ranked Minnesota, and last-ranked Anaheim.
The worst performance of the week, according to our calculations, was by Minnesota, who went 1-3-0, dropping 24 rating points and 9 ranking positions, from 8th to 17th. They lost to 28th-ranked Arizona, 7th-ranked Dallas, 15th-ranked Vegas, but ended the week with a shootout victory over 9th-ranked New Jersey.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Boston Bruins (1628, ▼11)
Record: 39-8-5, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 83% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 18% (▼3)
Last week: 0-1-0
- February 11: Lost 2-1 vs. Washington Capitals (19th, 1505)
Next week:
- February 14: @ Dallas Stars (7th, 1553)
- February 16: @ Nashville Predators (18th, 1511)
- February 18: vs. New York Islanders (20th, 1493)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1588, ▼9)
Record: 34-10-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼1)
Last week: 0-1-0
- February 11: Lost 6-2 vs. New York Rangers (4th, 1573)
Next week:
- February 14: @ Washington Capitals (19th, 1505)
- February 16: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1417)
- February 18: vs. Washington Capitals (19th, 1505)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning (1579, ▲3)
Record: 34-16-2, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-1
- February 6: Lost 7-1 @ Florida Panthers (12th, 1526)
- February 7: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (26th, 1446)
- February 9: Won 5-0 vs. Colorado Avalanche (15th, 1516)
- February 11: Won 3-1 @ Dallas Stars (7th, 1553)
Next week:
- February 14: @ Colorado Avalanche (15th, 1516)
- February 15: @ Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1418)
- February 18: @ Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1516)
4. New York Rangers ▲3 (1573, ▲18)
Record: 31-14-8, 3rd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲9)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲3)
Last week: 4-0-0
- February 6: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Calgary Flames (10th, 1531)
- February 8: Won 4-3 vs. Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1442)
- February 10: Won 6-3 vs. Seattle Kraken (13th, 1520)
- February 11: Won 6-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1588)
Next week:
- February 15: @ Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1442)
- February 17: @ Edmonton Oilers (6th, 1559)
- February 18: @ Calgary Flames (10th, 1531)
5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1565, ▼7)
Record: 32-14-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 1-1-0
- February 10: Won 3-0 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1394)
- February 11: Lost 4-3 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1394)
Next week:
- February 15: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1391)
- February 18: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1417)
- February 19: @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1391)
Overall Ratings
1 Boston Bruins 1628 (▼11) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1588 (▼9) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 1579 (▲3) 4 New York Rangers (▲3) 1573 (▲18) 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 1565 (▼7) 6 Edmonton Oilers 1559 (▲2) 7 Dallas Stars (▼2) 1553 (▼6) 8 Winnipeg Jets (▲3) 1533 (▲4) 9 New Jersey Devils (▲3) 1532 (▲4) 10 Calgary Flames 1531 (▲1) 11 Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 1530 (▲7) 12 Florida Panthers (▲2) 1526 (▲4) 13 Seattle Kraken (▼4) 1520 (▼12) 14 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 1518 (▼2) 15 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲2) 1516 (▲4) 15 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5) 1516 (▲22) 17 Minnesota Wild (▼9) 1513 (▼24) 18 Nashville Predators (▼3) 1511 (▼9) 19 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1505 (▲1) 20 New York Islanders (▲1) 1493 (▲4) 21 Buffalo Sabres (▼2) 1491 (▼8) 22 Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1473 (▼7) 23 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 1472 (▼15) 24 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1467 (▲8) 25 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1464 (▼2) 26 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 1446 (▲8) 27 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1442 (▲3) 28 Arizona Coyotes 1418 (▲11) 29 Montreal Canadiens 1417 (▲11) 30 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 1394 (▲8) 31 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1391 (▼5) 32 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 1389 (▼5)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 69% (▼14) 2 New Jersey Devils 20% (▲7) 3 New York Rangers 11% (▲7) 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins 96% (▼1) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 3% (▲1) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 1% 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 4 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 58% (▲4) 2 Winnipeg Jets 26% (▲6) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 9% (▲1) 4 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 5% (▼10) 5 Nashville Predators 3% 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1%
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 26% (▲1) 2 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 25% (▼20) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 24% (▲15) 4 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 18% (▲5) 5 Calgary Flames 7% (▼1) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes >99% 2 New Jersey Devils 99% (▲1) 3 New York Rangers 98% (▲9) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 66% (▲4) 5 Washington Capitals 47% 6 New York Islanders 21% (▲1) 7 Philadelphia Flyers 3% (▼5) 8 Columbus Blue Jackets <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins >99% 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 99% 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 99% 4 Florida Panthers (▲1) 29% (▲2) 5 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 25% (▼10) 6 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 10% (▲3) 7 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 5% (▼4) 8 Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 98% 2 Winnipeg Jets 92% (▲2) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 72% (▲1) 4 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 62% (▼20) 5 Nashville Predators 49% (▼6) 6 St. Louis Blues 5% 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 91% (▲3) 2 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 89% (▼5) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 88% (▲20) 4 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 85% (▲6) 5 Calgary Flames (▼1) 68% 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% (▼1)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Boston Bruins 83% (▼2) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 11% (▼1) 3 (tie) New Jersey Devils 2% (▲1) 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 2% (▲1) 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 1% (▲1) 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Boston Bruins 18% (▼3) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 10% (▼1) 3 (tie) New York Rangers (▲4) 8% (▲3) 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 8% (▲1) 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 7% 5 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 7% (▲1) 7 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 6% 8 Winnipeg Jets 5% (▲1) 9 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 4% (▲1) 9 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) 4% (▲1) 11 (tie) Calgary Flames 3% 11 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 3% 11 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼3) 3% (▼1) 11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5) 3% (▲1) 15 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼7) 2% (▼2) 15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4) 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 2% 18 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 1% 18 (tie) Florida Panthers 1% 18 (tie) New York Islanders 1% 18 (tie) Washington Capitals 1% 22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 22 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 22 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 22 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 22 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 22 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 22 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 22 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%