Thanksgiving weekend! While the rest of us were eating turkey, 8 of the CFL teams were playing football. I guess Calgary was probably eating turkey, too, or maybe getting ready for the stretch run. With unseasonably warm temperatures, it doesn’t quite feel like the regular season is nearing an end, but there’s just three weeks left!
The weekend started with Friday Night Football, with Saskatchewan travelling to Hamilton. This game was a must-win for both teams, as they are both battling for the last playoff spot in the East, with Saskatchewan hoping for the cross-over from the West division. In an unimpressive outing for both teams, Hamilton beat Saskatchewan 18-14. The outstanding offensive player of the game was Hamilton’s running back Wes Hills, who amassed 132 yards on 25 carries. Roughriders QB Cody Fajardo completed 24 of 31 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns, despite being sacked seven times! He also led the Riders with 22 (yes, that’s right, only 22) yards rushing. The win sees Hamilton’s chances of making the playoffs increase from 32% to 56%, while Saskatchewan’s decreased from 64% to 33%.
Saturday saw two games, with the first featuring British Columbia playing in Toronto. In an exciting finish, Toronto defeated BC 23-20. With just under 3 minutes to play, Toronto scored a touchdown to take the lead 23-20. In response, BC marched down the field and, with about a minute and a half left, gave kicker Sean Whyte the opportunity to tie the game with a 41 yard field goal, but he hit the upright! Toronto then ran out the clock to seal the victory. Toronto quarterback McLead Bethel-Thompson passed for 352 yards and a touchdown, completing 27 of his 40 passing attempts.
In the nightcap, Edmonton faced a tough battle as they headed to Winnipeg to face the top team in the league. In a completely expected result, Winnipeg trounced Edmonton 48-11. With the win, Winnipeg clinched first place in the West, and Edmonton has now been eliminated from playoff contention. Winnipeg scored touchdowns on their first four possessions of the game. Three Winnipeg quarterbacks passed for touchdowns, with Zach Collaros throwing 3, Dur Brown throwing one for 65 yards, and Dakota Prukop getting the other for 24 yards.
The final game of the weekend took place on Thanksgiving Monday, with Ottawa playing in Montreal. In a surprise, Ottawa beat Montreal 24-18. For Ottawa, quarterback Nick Arbuckle completed 28 of his 32 passes for 229 yards; his Montreal counterpart Trevor Harris completed 30 of 38 of his own for 338 yards and a touchdown. Ottawa running back Caleb Evans carried the ball 7 times, amassing a total of 11 yards, with his longest run being 3 yards, but he did score both of Ottawa’s touchdowns!
Week 18 Results
Saskatchewan 14 at Hamilton 18
British Columbia 20 at Toronto 23
Edmonton 11 at Winnipeg 48
Ottawa 24 at Montreal 18
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
Winnipeg remains at the top of the McDonald CFL Power Ratings, and they look exceptionally powerful heading into the last 3 weekends of the season, with a huge 69 rating point lead over 2nd-best Calgary. Toronto is the top team in the East, passing British Columbia to take over 3rd spot in the rankings. With Ottawa’s win and Edmonton’s loss, Edmonton is now seen as the weakest team in the league. I should stop bashing the East, as 2 of the bottom 4 teams come from the West.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1639 (▲4) | 14-2, 1st West |
| 2 | Calgary | 1570 | 10-5, T-2nd West |
| 3 (▲1) | Toronto | 1536 (▲11) | 9-6, 1st East |
| 4 (▼1) | British Columbia | 1527 (▼11) | 10-5, T-2nd West |
| 5 | Montreal | 1490 (▼18) | 7-8, 2nd East |
| 6 | Saskatchewan | 1473 (▼12) | 6-10, 4th West |
| 7 | Hamilton | 1470 (▲12) | 5-10, 3rd East |
| 8 (▲1) | Ottawa | 1413 (▲18) | 4-11, 4th East |
| 9 (▼1) | Edmonton | 1411 (▼4) | 4-12, 5th West |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg continues to be the McDonald CFL Power Ratings favourite to win the Grey Cup, as we’re now giving them a 43% chance of winning it all. They’ve clinched first place in the West, giving them a playoff bye and home field advantage in the West final. Top choice from the East is Toronto, who we’re giving a 23% chance of winning the Grey Cup. We’re giving them an 85% chance of winning the East.
Saskatchewan’s chances continue to plummet, as we’re now only giving them a 2% chance of winning it. Too bad, as the game is being held in Regina this year. With their loss to Hamilton this week, their only chance of making the playoffs now is with the crossover, meaning they’ll need to finish with a better record than the third place team in the East. The chances of that happening dropped from 65% to 33%; they are also the only team that could get the crossover.
Overall, there’s a 65% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report. We’ve also determined that there’s a 33% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 32% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1639 | 43% (▲2) |
| 2 | Toronto | 1536 | 23% (▲4) |
| 3 (▲1) | Calgary | 1570 | 12% (▲1) |
| 4 (▼1) | Montreal | 1490 | 9% (▼4) |
| 5 | British Columbia | 1527 | 7% (▼2) |
| 6 (▲1) | Hamilton | 1470 | 3% (▲1) |
| 7 (▼1) | Saskatchewan | 1473 | 2% (▼3) |
| 8 | Ottawa | 1413 | <1% |
| 9 (▼1) | Edmonton | 1411 | — |
Our Full Predictions
Here’s our full predictions.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 14-2, 1st in West |
1639 | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | 67% | 43% |
| Toronto 9-6, 1st in East |
1536 | ✔ | ✔ | 85% | 94% | 58% | 23% |
| Calgary 10-5, T-2nd in West |
1570 | ✔ | 58% | — | 57% | 20% | 12% |
| Montreal 7-8, 2nd in East |
1490 | 99% | 95% | 15% | 63% | 26% | 9% |
| British Columbia 10-5, T-2nd in West |
1527 | ✔ | 42% | — | 43% | 13% | 7% |
| Hamilton 5-10, 3rd in East |
1470 | 56% | 2% | — | 24% | 9% | 3% |
| Saskatchewan 6-10, 4th in West |
1473 | 33% | — | — | 14% | 5% | 2% |
| Ottawa 4-11, 4th in East |
1413 | 12% | 3% | — | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| Edmonton 4-12, 5th in West |
1411 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Week 19 Game Predictions
Friday: Montreal (53%) at Ottawa (46%)
Friday: Hamilton (43%) at Calgary (56%)
Saturday: Toronto (60%) at Edmonton (39%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (58%) at British Columbia (41%)