McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 17

CFL logoI haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Winnipeg defeat Saskatchewan, again, 31-13
Friday: Ottawa continues dismal season, losing 34-19 to British Columbia
Saturday: Edmonton continues dismal season, losing 25-18 to Montreal
Saturday: Toronto scores two rouges, but loses to Calgary 29-2

Week 17 Results

Saskatchewan 13  at Winnipeg 31
Ottawa 19  at British Columbia 34
Montreal 25  at Edmonton 18
Toronto 2 at Calgary 29

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1635 (6) 13-2, 1st West
2 Calgary 1570 (10) 10-5, T-2nd West
3 (1) British Columbia 1538 (7) 10-4, T-2nd West
4 (1) Toronto 1525 (10) 8-6, 1st East
5 Montreal 1508 (12) 7-7, 2nd East
6 Saskatchewan 1485 (6) 6-9, 4th West
7 Hamilton 1458 4-10, 3rd East
8 Edmonton 1415 (12) 4-11, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1395 (6) 3-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 65% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 6% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1635 41% (1)
2 Toronto 1525 19% (4)
3 Montreal 1508 13% (3)
4 (1) Calgary 1570 11% (1)
5 British Columbia 1538 9%
6 Saskatchewan 1485 5%
7 Hamilton 1458 2% (1)
T-8 Ottawa 1395 <1%
T-8 Edmonton 1415 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
13-2,
1st in West
1635 >99% 94% 98% 64% 41%
Toronto
8-6,
1st in East
1525 >99% 72% 89% 50% 19%
Montreal
7-7,
2nd in East
1508 >99% 99% 28% 70% 34% 13%
Calgary
10-5,
T-2nd in West
1570 42% <1% 53% 19% 11%
British Columbia
10-4,
T-2nd in West
1538 58% 6% 49% 17% 9%
Saskatchewan
6-9,
4th in West
1485 64% 27% 11% 5%
Hamilton
4-10,
3rd in East
1458 32% <1% <1% 13% 5% 2%
Ottawa
3-11,
4th in East
1395 4% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Edmonton
4-11,
5th in West
1415 <1% <1% <1% <1%

Week 18 Game Predictions

Friday: Saskatchewan (47%) at Hamilton (52%)
Saturday: British Columbia (45%) at Toronto (54%)
Saturday: Edmonton (17%) at Winnipeg (82%)
Monday: Ottawa (28%) at Montreal (71%)

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