McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 17

CFL logoI haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Winnipeg defeat Saskatchewan, again, 31-13
Friday: Ottawa continues dismal season, losing 34-19 to British Columbia
Saturday: Edmonton continues dismal season, losing 25-18 to Montreal
Saturday: Toronto scores two rouges, but loses to Calgary 29-2

Week 17 Results

Saskatchewan 13  at Winnipeg 31
Ottawa 19  at British Columbia 34
Montreal 25  at Edmonton 18
Toronto 2 at Calgary 29

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1635 (6) 13-2, 1st West
2 Calgary 1570 (10) 10-5, T-2nd West
3 (1) British Columbia 1538 (7) 10-4, T-2nd West
4 (1) Toronto 1525 (10) 8-6, 1st East
5 Montreal 1508 (12) 7-7, 2nd East
6 Saskatchewan 1485 (6) 6-9, 4th West
7 Hamilton 1458 4-10, 3rd East
8 Edmonton 1415 (12) 4-11, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1395 (6) 3-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 65% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 6% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1635 41% (1)
2 Toronto 1525 19% (4)
3 Montreal 1508 13% (3)
4 (1) Calgary 1570 11% (1)
5 British Columbia 1538 9%
6 Saskatchewan 1485 5%
7 Hamilton 1458 2% (1)
T-8 Ottawa 1395 <1%
T-8 Edmonton 1415 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
13-2,
1st in West
1635 >99% 94% 98% 64% 41%
Toronto
8-6,
1st in East
1525 >99% 72% 89% 50% 19%
Montreal
7-7,
2nd in East
1508 >99% 99% 28% 70% 34% 13%
Calgary
10-5,
T-2nd in West
1570 42% <1% 53% 19% 11%
British Columbia
10-4,
T-2nd in West
1538 58% 6% 49% 17% 9%
Saskatchewan
6-9,
4th in West
1485 64% 27% 11% 5%
Hamilton
4-10,
3rd in East
1458 32% <1% <1% 13% 5% 2%
Ottawa
3-11,
4th in East
1395 4% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Edmonton
4-11,
5th in West
1415 <1% <1% <1% <1%

Week 18 Game Predictions

Friday: Saskatchewan (47%) at Hamilton (52%)
Saturday: British Columbia (45%) at Toronto (54%)
Saturday: Edmonton (17%) at Winnipeg (82%)
Monday: Ottawa (28%) at Montreal (71%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 16

CFL logoI haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Montreal defeats Hamilton 23-16
Saturday: Toronto clinch playoff spot by thumping Ottawa 45-15
Saturday: Calgary gets revenge on BC for last week’s OT loss, winning 25-11

Week 16 Results

Hamilton 16  at Montreal 23
Toronto 45  at Ottawa 15
Calgary 25  at British Columbia 11

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1629 12-2, 1st West
2 Calgary 1560 (14) 9-5, T-2nd West
3 (1) Toronto 1535 (10) 8-5, 1st East
4 (1) British Columbia 1531 (14) 9-4, T-2nd West
5 (1) Montreal 1496 (10) 6-7, 2nd East
6 (1) Saskatchewan 1491 6-8, 4th West
7 Hamilton 1458 (10) 4-10, 3rd East
8 Edmonton 1427 4-10, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1401 (10) 3-10, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 71% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (up 7% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (down 1% from last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1629 40%
2 Toronto 1535 23% (2)
T-3 (1) Calgary 1560 10% (1)
T-3 (1) Montreal 1496 10% (1)
5 (2) British Columbia 1531 9% (3)
6 Saskatchewan 1491 5%
7 Hamilton 1458 1% (2)
T-8 Ottawa 1401 <1% (1)
T-8 (1) Edmonton 1427 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
12-2,
1st in West
1629 >99% 94% 97% 64% 40%
Toronto
8-5,
1st in East
1535 >99% 82% 92% 55% 23%
Calgary
9-5,
T-2nd in West
1560 39% <1% 53% 19% 10%
Montreal
6-7,
2nd in East
1496 96% 94% 18% 62% 27% 10%
British Columbia
9-4,
T-2nd in West
1531 61% 6% 50% 17% 9%
Saskatchewan
6-8,
4th in West
1491 69% <1% 31% 12% 5%
Hamilton
4-10,
3rd in East
1458 25% 2% <1% 11% 4% 1%
Ottawa
3-10,
4th in East
1401 7% 4% <1% 3% 1% <1%
Edmonton
4-10,
5th in West
1427 2% 1% <1% <1%

Week 17 Game Predictions

Friday: Saskatchewan (25%) at Winnipeg (74%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at British Columbia (73%)
Saturday: Montreal (52%) at Edmonton (47%)
Saturday: Toronto (39%) at Calgary (60%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 15

CFL logoI haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Edmonton squeak by Saskatchewan 26-24, first win at Mosaic Stadium since 2015
Saturday: Hamilton surprises Winnipeg 48-31
Saturday: British Columbia defeats Calgary 31-29 in overtime

Week 15 Results

Edmonton 26  at Saskatchewan 24
Winnipeg 31  at Hamilton 48
British Columbia 31  at Calgary 29 (OT)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1629 (17) 12-2, 1st West
2 Calgary 1546 (15) 8-5, 3rd West
3 British Columbia 1545 (16) 9-3, 2nd West
4 Toronto 1525 7-5, 1st East
5 Saskatchewan 1491 (17) 6-8, 4th West
6 Montreal 1486 5-7, 2nd East
7 Hamilton 1468 (18) 4-9, 3rd East
8 Edmonton 1427 (18) 4-10, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1411 3-9, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 4% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 64% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 23% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1629 40% (4)
2 Toronto 1525 21% (1)
3 (1) British Columbia 1545 12% (4)
T-4 Montreal 1486 9% (1)
T-4 (1) Calgary 1546 9% (2)
6 Saskatchewan 1491 5% (2)
7 Hamilton 1468 3% (2)
8 (1) Ottawa 1411 1%
9 Edmonton 1427 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
12-2,
1st in West
1629 >99% 89% 96% 62% 40%
Toronto
7-5,
1st in East
1525 >99% 99% 81% 91% 54% 21%
British Columbia
9-3,
2nd in West
1545 >99% 81% 11% 58% 22% 12%
Montreal
5-7,
2nd in East
1486 83% 72% 18% 53% 24% 9%
Calgary
8-5,
3rd in West
1546 >99% 19% <1% 46% 16% 9%
Saskatchewan
6-8,
4th in West
1491 63% 55% 28% 11% 5%
Hamilton
4-9,
3rd in East
1468 39% 20% <1% 20% 8% 3%
Ottawa
3-9,
4th in East
1411 14% 9% 1% 7% 3% 1%
Edmonton
4-10,
5th in West
1427 2% 1% <1% <1%

Week 16 Game Predictions

Friday: Hamilton (40%) at Montreal (59%)
Saturday: Toronto (58%) at Ottawa (41%)
Saturday: Calgary (43%) at British Columbia (56%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 14

CFL logoI haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Montreal defeat British Columbia 31-10
Saturday: Toronto defeat Ottawa 24-19
Saturday: Winnipeg thump Saskatchewan 54-20 in Banjo Bowl
Saturday: Calgary doubles Edmonton 56-28 in Battle of Alberta rematch

Week 14 Results

British Columbia 10  at Montreal 31
Toronto 24  at Ottawa 19
Saskatchewan 20  at Winnipeg 54
Calgary 56  at Edmonton 28

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1646 (7) 12-1, 1st West
2 Calgary 1561 (10) 8-4, T-2nd West
3 British Columbia 1529 (13) 8-3, T-2nd West
4 (1) Toronto 1525 (11) 7-5, 1st East
5 (1) Saskatchewan 1508 (7) 6-7, 4th West
6 Montreal 1486 (13) 5-7, 2nd East
7 Hamilton 1450 3-9, T-3rd East
8 Ottawa 1411 (11) 3-9, T-3rd East
9 Edmonton 1409 (9) 3-10, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s an 87% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 3% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1646 44% (2)
2 Toronto 1525 20% (2)
3 (1) Calgary 1561 11% (1)
T-4 (2) Montreal 1486 8% (1)
T-4 (1) British Columbia 1529 8% (3)
6 (1) Saskatchewan 1508 7% (1)
T-7 (1) Hamilton 1450 1%
T-7 Ottawa 1411 1% (1)
9 Edmonton 1409 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
12-1,
1st in West
1646 >99% 96% 99% 67% 44%
Toronto
7-5,
1st in East
1525 99% 99% 81% 91% 53% 20%
Calgary
8-4,
T-2nd in West
1561 >99% 49% <1% 54% 19% 11%
Montreal
5-7,
2nd in East
1486 84% 79% 19% 54% 24% 8%
British Columbia
8-3,
T-2nd in West
1529 >99% 51% 3% 47% 15% 8%
Saskatchewan
6-7,
4th in West
1508 86% 1% 40% 16% 7%
Hamilton
3-9,
T-3rd in East
1450 17% 11% <1% 9% 3% 1%
Ottawa
3-9,
T-3rd in East
1411 13% 11% <1% 7% 2% 1%
Edmonton
3-10,
5th in West
1409 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

Week 15 Game Predictions

Edmonton (30%) at Saskatchewan (69%)
Winnipeg (69%) at Hamilton (30%)
British Columbia (38%) at Calgary (61%)