I’ve been away for a few weeks, on a transatlantic cruise from Southampton, England to New York. The cruise was great, but the internet access on the boat was horrendous, and as a result, I have fallen behind on my CFL Power Ratings reports. Apparently, the boys in the back room have been goofing off while I was away! 🙂 Anyways, I’m back now, and am slowly working to catch up on the reports. Here’s the report for Week 13, better late than never!
It was Labour Day weekend in Canada, and that means classic confrontations!
On Friday, Ottawa, who has pretty much stunk all year, visited Montreal to play the Alouettes. In a surprise, Ottawa defeated Montreal 38-24 on the road. Ottawa quarterback Nick Arbuckle, despite completing only 20 of his 31 passes, threw for a total of 313 yards and a touchdown. His favourite receiver in this game was Jaelon Acklin, who caught 7 passes for 159 yards. The Ottawa defense came up big, forcing four turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.
There were no games on Saturday, but Sunday featured the Labour Day Classic in Regina, as Saskatchewan hosted their prairie rivals, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. In a low-scoring, close game, Winnipeg beat Saskatchewan 20-18. The Riders usually play well in their biggest game of the regular season, but it wasn’t enough to defeat the league’s-best Bombers. Winnipeg kicker Marc Liegghio booted a 55-yard field goal with 3 minutes left to take the lead, and a Winnipeg interception at their own 14 yard line sealed the win for the Bombers.
Labour Day Monday saw a doubleheader being played. In the first game, Toronto headed to Hamilton to take on the Ticats. Toronto hasn’t won the Labour Day clash in ten years, but they changed that, as Toronto rolled over Hamilton 28-8. It might have been expected, as Hamilton’s first- and second-string quarterbacks were both unavailable due to injury. The game was knotted at 8 after the first half, but Toronto held Hamilton scoreless in the second half, and scored two 4th-quarter touchdowns to put the game away.
The final game of the weekend saw hapless Edmonton head south to Calgary to face the Stampeders. In the Battle of Alberta, Calgary beat Edmonton 26-18. The game was much closer than expected, with Edmonton leading 8-7 at the half, but 15 Stampeder points in the 3rd quarter put Calgary in front to stay.
Week 13 Results
Ottawa 38 at Montreal 24
Winnipeg 20 at Saskatchewan 18
Toronto 28 at Hamilton 8
Edmonton 18 at Calgary 26
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
There was very little change in the rankings this week, although with Ottawa’s surprising win over Montreal, they’ve moved out of the lowest spot in our rankings; that dishonour is now held by Edmonton. The top 4 teams continue to be from the West, with Winnipeg by far the strongest team with their 11-1 record. Toronto is the top-ranked team in the East, and the only Eastern team with a rating above the average of 1500.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1639 (▲11) | 11-1, 1st West |
| 2 | Calgary | 1551 (▲7) | 7-4, 3rd West |
| 3 | British Columbia | 1542 | 8-2, 2nd West |
| 4 | Saskatchewan | 1515 (▼11) | 6-6, 4th West |
| 5 | Toronto | 1514 (▲11) | 6-5, 1st East |
| 6 | Montreal | 1473 (▼17) | 4-7, 2nd East |
| 7 | Hamilton | 1450 (▼13) | 3-9, T-3rd East |
| 8 (▲1) | Ottawa | 1422 (▲17) | 3-8, T-3rd East |
| 9 (▼1) | Edmonton | 1418 (▼7) | 3-9, 5th West |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg remains our favourite to win the Grey Cup; the boys in the back room have now calculated that they have a 42% chance of winning it! They clinched a playoff spot this week, the first and only team to do so.
Toronto is our second favourite to win the Cup; being the top team in the East really increases the chances of making it to the final, and anything can happen in the Grey Cup game! With their loss to lowly Ottawa, Montreal took a big drop, down from 11% chance to 7%. And lowly Ottawa, with their big win, have actually moved up to the 7th-favourite, moving ahead of Hamilton who they are currently tied with, although the RedBlacks do have a game in hand.
Overall, there’s a 71% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report. We’ve also determined that there’s a 90% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (same as last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1639 | 42% (▲3) |
| 2 | Toronto | 1514 | 18% (▲3) |
| 3 | British Columbia | 1542 | 11% (▼1) |
| 4 (▲1) | Calgary | 1551 | 10% |
| 5 (▲1) | Saskatchewan | 1515 | 8% |
| 6 (▼2) | Montreal | 1473 | 7% (▼4) |
| 7 (▲1) | Ottawa | 1422 | 2% (▲1) |
| 8 (▼1) | Hamilton | 1450 | 1% (▼2) |
| 9 | Edmonton | 1418 | <1% |
Our Full Predictions
Here’s our full predictions.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 11-1, 1st in West |
1639 | ✔ | >99% | 91% | 97% | 64% | 42% |
| Toronto 6-5, 1st in East |
1514 | 96% | 95% | 77% | 87% | 50% | 18% |
| British Columbia 8-2, 2nd in West |
1542 | >99% | 67% | 9% | 54% | 19% | 11% |
| Calgary 7-4, 3rd in West |
1551 | >99% | 32% | <1% | 50% | 18% | 10% |
| Saskatchewan 6-6, 4th in West |
1515 | 88% | 1% | <1% | 42% | 18% | 8% |
| Montreal 4-7, 2nd in East |
1473 | 68% | 64% | 17% | 43% | 20% | 7% |
| Ottawa 3-8, T-3rd in East |
1422 | 27% | 25% | 5% | 16% | 7% | 2% |
| Hamilton 3-9, T-3rd in East |
1450 | 19% | 15% | <1% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| Edmonton 3-9, 5th in West |
1418 | 2% | <1% | — | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Week 14 Game Predictions
British Columbia (52%) at Montreal (47%)
Toronto (55%) at Ottawa (44%)
Saskatchewan (27%) at Winnipeg (72%)
Calgary (61%) at Edmonton (38%)