In a tight game, the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Edmonton Oilers in Edmonton by a score of 4-2.  The Oilers took the lead when Connor McDavid scored on the very first shot of the game, 38 seconds in.  The Avalanche tied it up before the end of the first period, and held a 2-1 lead after two periods.  The Oilers tied it up on a Ryan McLeod goal at 7:34 of the third, before J.T. Compher put the Avs back in front 5 minutes later.  The Oilers couldn’t come back, and the Avs finished the game with an empty netter.

The win gives the Avalanche a 3-0 series lead.  We’ve calculated that they now have a 97.0% chance of winning the series, and a 56.0% chance of sweeping it with a victory on Monday.  The Oilers have been playing well, but they’ll need to win the next 4 against the top-rated team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and although possible (3% chance), it’s not very likely to happen.

There’s an afternoon game today as Tampa Bay hosts the New York Rangers.  The Rangers hold a 2-0 lead in the series, and Tampa Bay needs help from the home advantage to get back into the series.  We’re giving the Rangers a 78.4% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2

• Colorado leads series 3-0
• Colorado now has a 97.0% chance of winning the series, up from 87.9%

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 97.0% chance of winning (▲9.1)
  • In 4 games: 56.0% (▲25.7)
  • In 5 games: 28.6% (▼2.4)
  • In 6 games: 7.9% (▼7.5)
  • In 7 games: 4.6% (▼6.7)
• Edmonton has a 3.0% chance of winning (▼9.1)
  • In 7 games: 3.0% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼4.6)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Tampa Bay

• NY Rangers leads series 2-0
• NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 78.4%, Tampa Bay 21.6%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 21.1%
  • In 5 games: 27.1%
  • In 6 games: 15.9%
  • In 7 games: 14.2%
• Tampa Bay has a 21.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.6%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 97.0%, Edmonton 3.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 97.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 56.0%
  • In 5 games: 28.6%
  • In 6 games: 7.9%
  • In 7 games: 4.6%
• Edmonton has a 3.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 3.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.