What’s with Colorado??? The big story in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week is Colorado’s abysmal week, as they lost all 4 of their games! As a result, we took away 39 rating points (the most of any team this season!). They are still the top-ranked team in our ratings, and the only team over the magic 1600 point mark, but they saw their chance of winning the President’s Trophy drop from 69% to 1%, and their chances of winning the Stanley Cup dropping from 24% to 14%. A week ago, they seemed invincible; this week, not so much.
Other than that, there haven’t been a lot of changes. Winnipeg was eliminated from playoff contention, and Edmonton clinched a playoff spot. All the spots in the Eastern Conference had already been decided, but with a week to go in the season, there’s still five teams vying for the last 3 spots in the Western Conference. Here’s how that race looks:
Team GP W L OTL Pts % Chance 1 Los Angeles Kings 80 43 27 10 96 99 (▲29) 2 Nashville Predators 79 44 29 6 94 98 (▲8) 3 Dallas Stars 79 44 30 5 93 93 (▼2) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 79 42 31 6 90 9 (▼26) 5 Vancouver Canucks 79 38 30 11 87 <1 (▼11)
The top 5 teams stayed the same, although there was a bit of shifting in their placements in our rankings. Moving up to second spot was St. Louis, who went 3-0-1 this week. They see their chances of winning the Stanley Cup increasing from 8% to 10%. They lost their first game of the week to 11th-ranked Boston in overtime, but then finished with three straight road wins, over 24th-ranked San Jose, 31st-ranked Arizona (this one in overtime), and 27th-ranked Anaheim. Those teams they beat were weak teams, so we only awarded them 4 rating points, but that was good enough to move into 2nd place in the rankings.
Calgary is in 3rd place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, after going 3-0-1. They beat 30th-ranked Chicago, 17th-ranked Dallas, and 15th-ranked Vancouver, but lost in overtime to 16th-ranked Nashville. They picked up 15 rating points this week, and moved up from 5th spot in last week’s rankings to 3rd this week.
Dropping from 2nd to 4th was Florida. They went 3-1-0, beating the 19th-ranked New York Islanders in overtime, 25th-ranked Detroit in regulation, and 5th-ranked Toronto in overtime, but lost to 10th-ranked Tampa Bay, giving up 8 goals in the loss. They are expected to win the President’s Trophy, as we’re giving them a 99% chance of doing so, after Colorado’s bad week. You might be wondering, how can the team with the best record in the NHL be ranked 4th? Well, it’s close between #2, #3, and #4, with St. Louis at 1598 points, Calgary at 1596, and Florida at 1594. Plus, despite going 3-1-0 this week, two of those wins required overtime. I’m not sure why Colorado and Florida aren’t looking so good lately; maybe they’re resting up for the playoffs.
Finally, rounding out the top 5 is Toronto. They went 2-1-1, and dropped from 4th to 5th. They beat 28th-ranked Philadelphia in regulation time and 11th-ranked Washington in a shootout, but lost to 10th-ranked Tampa Bay in an 8-1 blowout, and 3-2 to 4th-ranked Florida in overtime. Perhaps unbelievably, we’re giving them a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup! Will they erase the curse of Harold Ballard? Probably not, but millions of Leaf fans hope otherwise.
Once again, I have to end this week’s report on a sad note. Guy Lafleur died this week at the age of 70 from cancer. He was one of my favourite players, and I used to have a picture of him up on my bedroom wall when I was younger, right beside my picture of Ken Dryden. It was a big thrill for me when I got to see him play in an Old-Timers game in Saskatoon; he still had the speed and the flowing hair when he made a break! I was very sad to hear of his passing.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1605, ▼39)
Record: 55-18-6, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼68)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▼10)
Last week: 0-4-0
- April 18: Lost 3-2 vs. Washington Capitals (11th, 1552)
- April 20: Lost 3-2 @ Seattle Kraken (26th, 1418)
- April 22: Lost 6-3 @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1558)
- April 24: Lost 4-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1486)
Next week:
- April 26: vs. St. Louis Blues (2nd, 1598)
- April 28: vs. Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
- April 29: @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1579)
2. St. Louis Blues ▲1 (1598, ▲4)
Record: 49-20-11, 3rd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: —
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-1
- April 19: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1552)
- April 21: Won 3-1 @ San Jose Sharks (24th, 1444)
- April 23: Won in OT 5-4 @ Arizona Coyotes (31st, 1377)
- April 24: Won 6-3 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1416)
Next week:
- April 26: @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1605)
- April 29: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (18th, 1506)
3. Calgary Flames ▲2 (1596, ▲15)
Record: 49-20-10, 1st in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: —
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲4)
Last week: 3-0-1
- April 18: Won 5-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1385)
- April 19: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
- April 21: Won 4-2 vs. Dallas Stars (17th, 1508)
- April 23: Won 6-3 vs. Vancouver Canucks (15th, 1519)
Next week:
- April 26: @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
- April 28: @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1579)
- April 29: @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1486)
4. Florida Panthers ▼2 (1594, ▼8)
Record: 57-16-6, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 99% (▲68)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼1)
Last week: 3-1-0
- April 19: Won in OT 3-2 @ New York Islanders (19th, 1500)
- April 21: Won 5-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1428)
- April 23: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (5th, 1588)
- April 24: Lost 8-4 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1556)
Next week:
- April 26: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1552)
- April 28: @ Ottawa Senators (22nd, 1452)
- April 29: @ Montreal Canadiens (32nd, 1359)
5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1588, ▼4)
Record: 52-21-7, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: —
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%
Last week: 2-1-1
- April 19: Won 5-2 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (28th, 1404)
- April 21: Lost 8-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1556)
- April 23: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Florida Panthers (4th, 1594)
- April 24: Won in SO 4-3 @ Washington Capitals (11th, 1552)
Next week:
- April 26: vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1428)
- April 29: vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1552)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1605 (▼39) 2 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1598 (▲4) 3 Calgary Flames (▲2) 1596 (▲15) 4 Florida Panthers (▼2) 1594 (▼8) 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 1588 (▼4) 6 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 1582 (▲14) 7 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 1579 (▲15) 8 New York Rangers (▼2) 1578 (▲4) 9 Edmonton Oilers 1558 (▲5) 10 Tampa Bay Lightning 1556 (▲12) 11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 1552 (▲8) 11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) 1552 (▲16) 13 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1543 (▲3) 14 Los Angeles Kings (▲5) 1527 (▲16) 15 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1519 (▼7) 16 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1517 (▼6) 17 Dallas Stars (▼1) 1508 (▼13) 18 Vegas Golden Knights 1506 (▼13) 19 New York Islanders (▼3) 1500 (▼21) 20 Winnipeg Jets 1486 21 Buffalo Sabres 1475 (▲15) 22 Ottawa Senators 1452 (▲2) 23 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 1451 (▲1) 24 San Jose Sharks 1444 (▲10) 25 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1428 (▲10) 26 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 1418 (▲10) 27 Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 1416 (▼17) 28 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 1404 (▲15) 29 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1401 (▼1) 30 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1385 (▼14) 31 Arizona Coyotes 1377 (▼6) 32 Montreal Canadiens 1359 (▼21)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 93% (▲36) 2 New York Rangers 7% (▼36) 3 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) — 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) — 3 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) — 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) — 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins — (▼1) 3 (tie) Washington Capitals — (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers ✔ (▲1) 2 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2) — 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) — 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) — 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) — 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2) — 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning — (▼1) 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs — (▼1)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche ✔ 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes — 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks — 2 (tie) Dallas Stars — 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild — 2 (tie) Nashville Predators — 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues — 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets —
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames ✔ (▲1) 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) — 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers — (▼1) 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) — 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) — 2 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) — 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) — 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) —
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes ✔ 1 (tie) New York Rangers ✔ 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins ✔ 1 (tie) Washington Capitals ✔ 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets — 5 (tie) New York Islanders — 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils — 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers —
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Boston Bruins ✔ 1 (tie) Florida Panthers ✔ 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning ✔ 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs ✔ 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres — 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings — 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens — 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators —
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche ✔ 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild ✔ 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues ✔ 4 Nashville Predators (▲1) 98% (▲8) 5 Dallas Stars (▼1) 93% (▼2) 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) — 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) — 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets — (▼1)
Pacific Division
1 (tie) Calgary Flames ✔ 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) ✔ (▲1) 3 Los Angeles Kings 99% (▲29) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 9% (▼26) 5 Vancouver Canucks <1% (▼11) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks — 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks — 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken —
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Florida Panthers (▲1) 99% (▲68) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 1% (▼68)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 14% (▼10) 2 Calgary Flames (▲2) 12% (▲4) 3 Florida Panthers (▼1) 11% (▼1) 4 St. Louis Blues 10% (▲2) 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 9% 6 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 8% (▲2) 7 New York Rangers (▼1) 7% 8 Minnesota Wild 6% (▲2) 9 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 5% (▲1) 10 (tie) Boston Bruins 4% (▲1) 10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 4% (▲1) 10 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3) 4% (▲2) 13 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 3% 14 Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 1% (▼1) 15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2) 1% (▼1) 17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1% 17 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) <1% (▼1) 19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) — 19 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) — 19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) — 19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) — 19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) — 19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) — 19 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) — 19 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) — 19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) — 19 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) — 19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) — 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) — 19 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) — 19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) — (▼1)