Ah, after three weeks without the witty commentary that you pay the big bucks to enjoy, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings commentary is back. As a bonus, the commentary will also be insightful this week, and in some cases, may even be surprising. But I doubt it.
Colorado continues to be the top-ranked team in our ratings, as they have been for most of the season. They demonstrated their strength again this week, going 3-0-0, defeating 7th-ranked Calgary on the road, and 23rd-ranked San Jose and 6th-ranked Pittsburgh at home. They’ve gained an additional 18 rating points, and remain by far the strongest team in our rankings. Although they haven’t clinched a playoff spot yet, they are our favourites to win both the President’s Trophy (63% chance) and the Stanley Cup (a whopping 21% chance).
Once again, Carolina is our 2nd-ranked team, a whopping 39 rating points behind Colorado. They had a middling week, going 2-1-1, with wins over 17th-ranked Washington and 30th-ranked Montreal, an overtime loss to 10th-ranked Tampa Bay, and a regulation loss to 9th-ranked Minnesota. Based on this performance, we didn’t change their ratings; we still think 1589 is a fair rating for the Hurricanes.
Moving into 3rd in our rankings is Florida, up from 5th, who are the first team in the league to clinch a playoff spot. They went 4-0-0 this week, but all of their games were against bottom-half teams, so their rating only went up 10 points this week, just 3 points behind Carolina. They beat 30th-ranked Montreal, 25th-ranked Chicago, and 22nd-ranked Buffalo in regulation time, but it took them overtime to beat worst-ranked New Jersey. They are the second favourites for winning the President’s Trophy, at 30%, and the Stanley Cup, at 10% (tied with Carolina).
We see only three teams having reasonable chances of winning the President’s Trophy. Here’s the current standings:
Team GP W L OTL Pts % Chance 1 Colorado Avalanche 69 49 14 6 104 63 2 Florida Panthers 69 48 15 6 102 30 3 Carolina Hurricanes 69 45 16 8 98 6
Toronto has moved back into our top 5, jumping 4 ranking spots to 4th. They went 3-0-0 this week, with regulation victories over 5th-ranked Boston, 20th-ranked Winnipeg, and 27th-ranked Philadelphia. Leaf centre Auston Matthews was the first player to reach 50 goals in the league this year, and he now leads the league with 51. With their spotless record this week, we awarded them 19 rating points, and they now have 1583, just 3 behind 3rd-ranked Carolina.
Also moving back into the top 5 was Boston, who moved up from 6th last week. They went 2-1-0 this week, defeating 32nd-ranked New Jersey and 21st-ranked Columbus, but losing to 4th-ranked Toronto.
Dropping out of the top 5 were Calgary and Pittsburgh. Calgary was ranked 3rd last week, but fell to 7th this week. They lost all three of their games this week, to top-ranked Colorado and 7th-ranked St. Louis in regulation time, and 15th-ranked Los Angeles in a shootout. Pittsburgh dropped from 5th to 6th, after going 1-2-0, beating 9th-ranked Minnesota in overtime, but losing to 11th-ranked New York Rangers and #1 Colorado.
The biggest upward movers this week were the New York Islanders, St. Louis, and Minnesota. The Islanders went 4-0-0, with all their victories coming in regulation time. They beat 21st-ranked Columbus twice, as well as the 11th-ranked Rangers and league-worst New Jersey, and gained 30 rating points, moving from 19th spot in our rankings all the way up to 13th.
St. Louis went 3-0-1 and were awarded 23 rating points, enough to move from 10th to 7th. They beat 19th-ranked Vancouver twice and 7th-ranked Calgary once, but lost to 12th-ranked Edmonton in overtime. Minnesota also went 3-0-1, and moved up from 10th to 9th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings. They beat 27th-ranked Philadelphia, 2nd-ranked Carolina, and 17th-ranked Washington, but fell in overtime to 6th-ranked Pittsburgh.
The big downward movers were the afore-mentioned Calgary Flames, Columbus, and San Jose. Columbus and San Jose both lost all three of their games this week in regulation time, and lost 19 rating points. Columbus did retain their ranking in 21st, and San Jose dropped one spot to 23rd.
With less than a month remaining in the season, we’re starting to see the playoff picture solidify a bit. Florida is the only team to have clinched a playoff spot, but a number of teams have been mathematically eliminated from making the playoffs: New Jersey and Philadelphia in the Metropolitan Division, Montreal in the Atlantic Division, Arizona in the Central Division, and Seattle in the Pacific Division. According to the boys in the back room, though, most of the playoff spots look pretty clear, at least in the Eastern Conference. In the East, we’re predicting Carolina, the Rangers, Pittsburgh, and Washington from the Metropolitan Division, and Boston, Florida, Tampa Bay, and Toronto from the Atlantic Division. The picture is a little less clear in the West, although we are confident that Colorado, Minnesota, and St. Louis will make it from the Central Division, as well as Calgary from the Pacific Division. Here’s the chances we’re giving the remaining teams for the last 4 spots:
Team GP W L OTL Pts % Chance 1 Los Angeles Kings 71 38 23 10 86 90 2 Edmonton Oilers 70 40 25 5 85 88 3 Nashville Predators 68 39 25 4 82 86 4 Dallas Stars 68 39 26 3 81 80 5 Vegas Golden Knights 71 39 28 4 82 53
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1628, ▲18)
Record: 49-14-6, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 63% (▲12)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 21% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- March 29: Won 2-1 @ Calgary Flames (7th, 1561)
- March 31: Won 4-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (23rd, 1443)
- April 2: Won 3-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1564)
Next week:
- April 5: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1564)
- April 8: @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1492)
- April 9: @ Edmonton Oilers (12th, 1537)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1589)
Record: 45-16-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼14)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%
Last week: 2-1-1
- March 28: Won 6-1 @ Washington Capitals (17th, 1508)
- March 29: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1558)
- March 31: Won 4-0 vs. Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1405)
- April 2: Lost 3-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1560)
Next week:
- April 5: @ Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1445)
- April 7: vs. Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1445)
- April 8: vs. New York Islanders (13th, 1530)
- April 10: vs. Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1419)
3. Florida Panthers ▲2 (1586, ▲10)
Record: 48-15-6, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 30% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- March 29: Won 7-4 vs. Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1405)
- March 31: Won 4-0 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1425)
- April 2: Won in OT 7-6 @ New Jersey Devils (32nd, 1398)
- April 3: Won 5-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1445)
Next week:
- April 5: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (4th, 1583)
- April 8: vs. Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1445)
- April 9: @ Nashville Predators (13th, 1530)
4. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲4 (1583, ▲19)
Record: 44-19-5, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- March 29: Won 6-4 @ Boston Bruins (5th, 1574)
- March 31: Won 7-3 vs. Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1492)
- April 2: Won 6-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1417)
Next week:
- April 4: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1558)
- April 5: @ Florida Panthers (3rd, 1586)
- April 7: @ Dallas Stars (18th, 1504)
- April 9: vs. Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1405)
5. Boston Bruins ▲1 (1574)
Record: 43-20-5, 4th in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 29: Lost 6-4 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (4th, 1583)
- March 31: Won 8-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (32nd, 1398)
- April 2: Won 5-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1459)
Next week:
- April 4: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1459)
- April 5: @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1403)
- April 8: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1558)
- April 10: @ Washington Capitals (17th, 1508)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1628 (▲18) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1589 3 Florida Panthers (▲2) 1586 (▲10) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲4) 1583 (▲19) 5 Boston Bruins (▲1) 1574 6 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 1564 (▼15) 7 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4) 1561 (▼19) 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3) 1561 (▲23) 9 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 1560 (▲22) 10 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1558 11 New York Rangers (▼4) 1557 (▼8) 12 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 1537 (▲10) 13 (tie) New York Islanders (▲6) 1530 (▲30) 13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 1530 (▼4) 15 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1524 16 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 1518 (▲13) 17 Washington Capitals (▼2) 1508 (▼15) 18 Dallas Stars (▲1) 1504 (▲4) 19 Vancouver Canucks (▼3) 1503 (▼15) 20 Winnipeg Jets (▼3) 1492 (▼13) 21 Columbus Blue Jackets 1459 (▼19) 22 Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1445 (▲12) 23 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1443 (▼19) 24 Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1438 (▲9) 25 Chicago Blackhawks (▼2) 1425 (▼18) 26 Anaheim Ducks 1419 (▼4) 27 Philadelphia Flyers 1417 (▼5) 28 Arizona Coyotes 1413 (▼4) 29 Seattle Kraken (▲3) 1412 (▲8) 30 Montreal Canadiens 1405 (▼2) 31 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 1403 (▼11) 32 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1398 (▼7)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 88% (▲8) 2 New York Rangers 10% (▼3) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 2% (▼4) 4 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals <1% 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets — (▼1) 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils — (▼1) 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers — (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 88% (▲10) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 7% 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 4% (▼5) 4 Boston Bruins 1% (▼5) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres — (▼1) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings — (▼1) 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens — (▼1) 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators — (▼1)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% (▲1) 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild <1% (▼1) 2 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) — (▼1) 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) — (▼1) 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) — (▼1)
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 90% (▼7) 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 5% (▲4) 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 5% (▲2) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 1% (▲1) 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1) <1% 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1) <1% 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1) <1% 8 Seattle Kraken (▼1) — (▼1)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) New York Rangers >99% 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins >99% 4 Washington Capitals 95% (▼4) 5 New York Islanders (▲1) 5% (▲5) 6 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) <1% (▼1) 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils — (▼1) 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers — (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers ✔ (▲1) 2 (tie) Boston Bruins >99% 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 8 Montreal Canadiens — (▼1)
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche >99% 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) >99% (▲1) 3 St. Louis Blues 99% (▲6) 4 Nashville Predators 86% (▼6) 5 Dallas Stars 80% (▲7) 6 Winnipeg Jets 3% (▼12) 7 Chicago Blackhawks <1% 8 Arizona Coyotes — (▼1)
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames >99% 2 Los Angeles Kings 90% 3 Edmonton Oilers 88% (▲14) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 53% (▲16) 5 Vancouver Canucks 2% (▼23) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% (▼1) 8 Seattle Kraken (▲1) — (▼1)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 63% (▲12) 2 Florida Panthers 30% (▲5) 3 Carolina Hurricanes 6% (▼14)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 21% (▲3) 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 10% 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 10% (▲2) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 8% (▲2) 5 Boston Bruins (▲1) 7% 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4) 6% (▼4) 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 6% (▼2) 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 5% (▲1) 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1) 5% (▼1) 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2) 5% (▲1) 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 5% 12 Edmonton Oilers 4% (▲1) 13 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 3% 14 Nashville Predators (▼2) 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 1% 15 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 1% 15 (tie) Washington Capitals 1% (▼1) 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼2) <1% (▼1) 18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) <1% 28 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼9) — (▼1) 28 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼9) — (▼1) 28 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼9) — (▼1) 28 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼9) — (▼1) 28 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼9) — (▼1)