The NHL regular season is quickly drawing to a close, although the season has been extended by a day. The Seattle / Winnipeg game originally scheduled for last Wednesday was postponed due to the massive snow storm that Winnipeg got, and has been moved to May 1 instead. Other than that, there’s about two weeks left in the season.
Teams that clinched playoff spots this week were Boston, Calgary, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Washington; they join Carolina, Colorado, Florida, New York Rangers, and Toronto who had previously earned spots in the playoffs. Teams that were eliminated from playoff contention this week were Anaheim, Columbus, New York Islanders, and San Jose. As a result, all of the playoff spots in the Eastern Conference have been decided, but there’s still seven teams battling it out for the last four spots in the Western Conference. Here’s how that currently looks:
Team GP W L OTL Pts % Chance 1 Edmonton Oilers 76 44 26 6 94 >99 (▲2) 2 Dallas Stars 75 43 27 5 91 95 (▲7) 3 Nashville Predators 76 43 28 5 91 90 (▼4) 4 Los Angeles Kings 77 40 27 10 90 70 (▲7) --- 5 Vegas Golden Knights 76 41 30 5 87 35 (▼12) 6 Vancouver Canucks 75 37 28 10 84 11 (▲1) 7 Winnipeg Jets 76 35 30 11 81 <1 (▼1)
The battle for the President’s Trophy continues, with only two teams having reasonable chances of finishing with the best record in the NHL. Here’s the complete list of teams that still have a chance of winning it:
Team GP W L OTL Pts % Chance 1 Colorado Avalanche 75 55 14 6 116 69 (▲2) 2 Florida Panthers 75 54 15 6 114 31 (▼2) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 76 50 20 6 106 <1 4 Carolina Hurricanes 76 48 20 8 104 <1 5 New York Rangers 76 49 21 6 104 <1
Colorado remains in the top spot in our McDonald NHL Power Rankings. They won all three of their games this week, against 19th-ranked Los Angeles, 28th-ranked New Jersey, and 7th-ranked Carolina. They are looking dominant, and are far ahead of any other team in our rating points, 42 more than the next-closest team. They are our favourites to win the Stanley Cup, sitting at a season-high 24% probability, and the President’s Trophy, at 69%.
Florida continues to be our second-ranked team. They also went 3-0-0 this week, although they had a pretty easy schedule this week, with wins over 25th-ranked Anaheim in overtime, 20th-ranked Winnipeg, and 26th-ranked Detroit. They have crossed that magical 1600 rating point milestone, sitting at 1602 rating points. They are the only other team besides Colorado that has a reasonable chance of winning the President’s Trophy; we’re giving them a 31% probability of doing that. They are also the second-most likely team to win the Stanley Cup, at 12%.
There’s a new entry in the top 5 this week, with St. Louis entering the top 5 for what I think is the first team this season. They’ve been hovering in the top 10 for quite a while, and after going 4-0-0 this week, they finally made the leap! This week, they had 3 road victories, beating 10th-ranked Boston, 21st-ranked Buffalo, and 15th-ranked Nashville. Their lone home game was an overtime victory against 8th-ranked Minnesota. They clinched a playoff spot this week, but were eliminated from contention for the President’s Trophy. We’re giving them an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 6% last week.
Toronto dropped down one spot in the rankings to fourth. They had a 3-1-0 record this week, losing to 21st-ranked Buffalo to start the week, but then winning their next three games, against 13th-ranked Washington, 22nd-ranked Ottawa (this one in overtime), and the 16th-ranked New York Islanders. We still have them as the 3rd-most likely team to win the Stanley Cup, at 9%. It helps not being in the same conference as Colorado!
Rounding out the top 5 is Calgary, who also dropped down one spot from last week. They went 2-1-0 in three home games, with victories over 27th-ranked Seattle and 31st-ranked Arizona, but lost to 18th-ranked Vegas. They did clinch a playoff spot this week, though.
Dropping out of the top 5 to make way for St. Louis was Carolina. They dropped two spots to 7th after going 1-2-0, beating the 6th-ranked New York Rangers but losing to 26th-ranked Detroit and top-ranked Colorado. They still sit in top spot in the Metropolitan Division, but their chances of winning that division have dropped 68% to 57%; the Rangers are the only other team with a reasonable chance of winning that division, at 43%.
I hate ending on a sad note, but I will — Hall of Famer Mike Bossy passed away this week. He won four Stanley Cup with the New York Islanders from 1980 to 1983. He’s the second member of that Islander dynasty to pass away this year, after Clark Gillies died in January. I was a big fan of that team.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1644, ▲12)
Record: 55-14-6, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 69% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 24% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- April 13: Won 9-3 vs. Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1511)
- April 14: Won 3-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (28th, 1402)
- April 16: Won 7-4 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (7th, 1568)
Next week:
- April 18: vs. Washington Capitals (13th, 1536)
- April 20: @ Seattle Kraken (27th, 1408)
- April 22: @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1553)
- April 24: @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1486)
2. Florida Panthers (1602, ▲6)
Record: 54-15-6, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 31% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- April 12: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (25th, 1433)
- April 15: Won 6-1 vs. Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1486)
- April 17: Won 6-1 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1418)
Next week:
- April 19: @ New York Islanders (16th, 1521)
- April 21: vs. Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1418)
- April 23: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (4th, 1592)
- April 24: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1544)
3. St. Louis Blues ▲3 (1594, ▲20)
Record: 46-20-10, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- April 12: Won 4-2 @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1544)
- April 14: Won 6-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (21st, 1460)
- April 16: Won in OT 6-5 vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1564)
- April 17: Won 8-3 @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1523)
Next week:
- April 19: vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1544)
- April 21: @ San Jose Sharks (24th, 1434)
- April 23: @ Arizona Coyotes (31st, 1383)
- April 24: @ Anaheim Ducks (25th, 1433)
4. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1592, ▼2)
Record: 50-20-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)
Last week: 3-1-0
- April 12: Lost 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (21st, 1460)
- April 14: Won 7-3 vs. Washington Capitals (13th, 1536)
- April 16: Won in OT 5-4 @ Ottawa Senators (22nd, 1450)
- April 17: Won 4-2 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1521)
Next week:
- April 19: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (30th, 1389)
- April 21: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1544)
- April 23: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1602)
- April 24: @ Washington Capitals (13th, 1536)
5. Calgary Flames ▼1 (1581, ▼4)
Record: 46-20-9, 1st in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- April 12: Won 5-3 vs. Seattle Kraken (27th, 1408)
- April 14: Lost 6-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (18th, 1519)
- April 16: Won 9-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31st, 1383)
Next week:
- April 18: @ Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1399)
- April 19: @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1523)
- April 21: vs. Dallas Stars (16th, 1521)
- April 23: vs. Vancouver Canucks (14th, 1526)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1644 (▲12) 2 Florida Panthers 1602 (▲6) 3 St. Louis Blues (▲3) 1594 (▲20) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 1592 (▼2) 5 Calgary Flames (▼1) 1581 (▼4) 6 New York Rangers (▲1) 1574 (▲1) 7 Carolina Hurricanes (▼2) 1568 (▼9) 8 Minnesota Wild 1564 (▲4) 9 Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 1553 (▲8) 10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 1544 (▼11) 10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 1544 (▼4) 12 Pittsburgh Penguins 1540 13 Washington Capitals (▲1) 1536 (▲3) 14 Vancouver Canucks (▲2) 1526 (▲3) 15 Nashville Predators (▼2) 1523 (▼14) 16 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2) 1521 (▲13) 16 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) 1521 (▼6) 18 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 1519 (▲5) 19 Los Angeles Kings 1511 (▲8) 20 Winnipeg Jets 1486 (▼5) 21 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1460 (▲18) 22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 1450 (▼8) 22 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2) 1450 (▲21) 24 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1434 (▲1) 25 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1433 (▲14) 26 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 1418 (▼5) 27 Seattle Kraken 1408 (▼4) 28 New Jersey Devils (▲4) 1402 (▲6) 29 Chicago Blackhawks 1399 (▼10) 30 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 1389 (▼22) 31 Arizona Coyotes 1383 (▼15) 32 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 1380 (▼22)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 57% (▼11) 2 New York Rangers 43% (▲11) 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins <1% 3 (tie) Washington Capitals <1% 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets — 5 (tie) New York Islanders — 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils — 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers —
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers >99% (▲4) 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs <1% (▼4) 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) — 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) — 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) — 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) — 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) —
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche ✔ 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) — 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) — 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2) — 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild — (▼1) 2 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) — 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues — (▼1) 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) —
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames >99% (▲1) 2 Edmonton Oilers <1% (▼1) 3 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3) — 3 (tie) Los Angeles Kings — (▼1) 3 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲3) — 3 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲3) — 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks — (▼1) 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights — (▼1)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes ✔ 1 (tie) New York Rangers ✔ 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) ✔ (▲1) 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) ✔ (▲1) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets — (▼1) 5 (tie) New York Islanders — (▼1) 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) — 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) —
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2) ✔ (▲1) 1 (tie) Florida Panthers ✔ 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) ✔ (▲1) 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs ✔ 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres — 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings — 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens — 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators —
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche ✔ 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) ✔ (▲1) 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) ✔ (▲1) 4 Dallas Stars (▲1) 95% (▲7) 5 Nashville Predators (▼1) 90% (▼4) 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes — 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks —
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames ✔ (▲1) 2 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) >99% (▲2) 3 Los Angeles Kings 70% (▲7) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 35% (▼12) 5 Vancouver Canucks 11% (▲1) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks — (▼1) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks — (▼1) 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2) —
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 69% (▲2) 2 Florida Panthers 31% (▼2)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 24% (▲3) 2 Florida Panthers 12% (▲1) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9% (▼1) 4 (tie) Calgary Flames 8% (▼1) 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3) 8% (▲2) 6 New York Rangers 7% 7 Carolina Hurricanes (▼2) 6% (▼2) 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 4% 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild 4% 10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 3% (▼1) 10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 3% 10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 3% (▼1) 13 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2) 2% (▲1) 13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 2% (▼1) 13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) 2% 16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1% 16 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 1% 18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1% 20 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2) — (▼1) 20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4) — 20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲4) — 20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲4) — 20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) — (▼1) 20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲4) — 20 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲4) — 20 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2) — (▼1) 20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲4) — 20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲4) — 20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4) — 20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼2) — (▼1) 20 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲4) —