We’re getting closer and closer to the end of the regular season, and the playoff picture is becoming clearer. As usual, there hasn’t been much change in our top 5, which we feel is a good indication of the accuracy of our models. But despite that, our top choice for winning the Stanley Cup only gets about a 1-in-5 chance of winning it all. Hockey can be difficult to predict!
Colorado remains the top team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings. They’ve been the top team for months, but only this week did they clinch a playoff spot! We’re giving them a 67% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 21% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. This week, they went 3-0-0, although only one of those victories came in regulation time. All three of their games were on the road. They are the only team with a rating over that magic 1600 point, and are a whopping 36 rating points ahead of the 2nd-ranked team.
That 2nd-ranked team is the Florida Panthers this week, who passed last week’s #2 team, the Carolina Hurricanes. Florida went 3-0-0 this week, with an overtime win against 3rd-ranked Toronto, and regulation wins over 22nd-ranked Buffalo and 13th-ranked Nashville. They are the only other team that we’re giving a reasonable chance of winning the President’s Trophy, with a 33% chance.
Here’s the race for the President’s Trophy:
Team GP W L OTL Pts % Chance 1 Colorado Avalanche 72 52 14 6 110 67 (▲4) 2 Florida Panthers 72 51 15 6 108 33 (▲3)
Last week, Carolina was also in the race, just barely at 6%, but now we give them less than a 1% chance of winning it.
Back to the top 5 — Toronto has moved into 3rd spot in our rankings. Toronto! The Maple Leafs! What’s up with that??? On Hockey Night In Canada on Saturday, they won a classic matchup with Montreal, and that win clinched a playoff spot for them! That game closed off a 3-0-1 week, with regulation victories over 10th-ranked Tampa Bay and 30th-ranked Montreal, an overtime victory over 18th-ranked Dallas, and an overtime loss to 2nd-ranked Florida. We’re giving them a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Next in the top 5 is Calgary, clocking in at #4, up three spots from last week. They went 4-0-0 in 4 road games this week, with all four wins coming in regulation time, although all those games were against bottom-half teams. They beat 19th-ranked Los Angeles, 26th-ranked Anaheim, 23rd-ranked San Jose, and 27th-ranked Seattle. We’ve calculated that they’ve got a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Rounding out the top 5 are the Carolina Hurricanes, who dropped 3 spots from #2 in last week’s rankings. They had a very middling week, going 2-2-0, splitting a home-and-home pair with 22nd-ranked Buffalo, losing to the 15th-ranked New York Islanders, and finishing the week with a win over the 26th-ranked Anaheim. Despite their so-so week, they did clinch a playoff spot.
Dropping out of the top 5 was Boston, who had a pretty crappy week, going 2-2-0, with both of their wins coming in overtime. They started the week beating 21st-ranked Columbus, followed it up with loss to 25th-ranked Detroit, then turned it around with a victory over 10th-ranked Tampa Bay, and finished it off by losing to 14th-ranked Washington. After this week’s performance, we took away 19 rating points and almost halved their chances of winning the Stanley Cup, dropping that from 7% to 4%.
This week’s big movers were Washington and Vancouver, with both teams going 3-0-0. We increased Washington’s rating by 25 points, moving them up from 17th to 14th in our rankings. We awarded Vancouver an additional 20 rating points, moving them from 19th to 16th, but they’ve still got a ways to go to make the playoffs — we’re only giving them a 10% chance of making the playoffs, but that’s up from 2% last week!
The biggest downward move in our ratings was by Pittsburgh, who went 1-3-0, with losses to 1st-ranked Colorado, 7th-ranked New York Rangers, and 14th-ranked Washington, although they finished up the week with an overtime win over 13th-ranked Nashville. This poor performance dropped them 24 rating points, and moved them in our rankings from 6th all the way down to 12th. We’re still expecting them to make the playoffs, though, with a greater than 99% chance.
Also having a bad week was Los Angeles. Last week, we gave them a 90% chance of making the playoffs, but after losing all three of this week’s games, we’ve dropped that to 63%. They’ve also dropped from 15th in our rankings to 19th this week.
Teams clinching playoff spots this week were Carolina, Colorado, New York Rangers, and Toronto, joining Florida who clinched last week. Newly eliminated from playoff contention were Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, and Ottawa.
And let’s finish off this week’s report looking at the race for the playoff spots in the West (we figure the East teams have already been decided). Although Colorado is the only Western team to have clinched a playoff spot, we’re giving Calgary, Minnesota, and St. Louis a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs. Again this week, we think there’s 5 teams fighting it out for the remaining 4 spots:
Team GP W L OTL Pts % Chance 1 Edmonton Oilers 73 42 25 6 90 98 (▲10) 2 Nashville Predators 72 41 26 5 87 94 (▲8) 3 Dallas Stars 72 41 27 4 86 88 (▲8) 4 Los Angeles Kings 74 38 26 10 86 63 (▼27) 5 Vegas Golden Knights 73 40 29 4 84 47 (▼6)
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1632, ▲4)
Record: 52-14-6, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 67% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 21%
Last week: 3-0-0
- April 5: Won 6-4 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1540)
- April 8: Won in OT 5-4 @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1491)
- April 9: Won in SO 2-1 @ Edmonton Oilers (11th, 1545)
Next week:
- April 13: vs. Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1503)
- April 14: vs. New Jersey Devils (32nd, 1396)
- April 16: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1577)
2. Florida Panthers ▲1 (1596, ▲10)
Record: 51-15-6, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 33% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- April 5: Won in OT 7-6 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1594)
- April 8: Won 4-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1442)
- April 9: Won 4-1 @ Nashville Predators (13th, 1537)
Next week:
- April 12: vs. Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1419)
- April 15: vs. Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1491)
- April 17: @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1423)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲1 (1594, ▲11)
Record: 47-19-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-1
- April 4: Won 6-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1548)
- April 5: Lost in OT 7-6 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1596)
- April 7: Won in OT 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (18th, 1508)
- April 9: Won 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1402)
Next week:
- April 12: vs. Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1442)
- April 14: vs. Washington Capitals (14th, 1533)
- April 16: @ Ottawa Senators (24th, 1429)
- April 17: vs. New York Islanders (15th, 1527)
4. Calgary Flames ▲3 (1585, ▲24)
Record: 44-19-9, 1st in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)
Last week: 4-0-0
- April 4: Won 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1503)
- April 6: Won 4-2 @ Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1419)
- April 7: Won 4-2 @ San Jose Sharks (23rd, 1433)
- April 9: Won 4-1 @ Seattle Kraken (27th, 1412)
Next week:
- April 12: vs. Seattle Kraken (27th, 1412)
- April 14: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (17th, 1514)
- April 16: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31st, 1398)
5. Carolina Hurricanes ▼3 (1577, ▼12)
Record: 47-18-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼6)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼2)
Last week: 2-2-0
- April 5: Lost 4-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1442)
- April 7: Won 5-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1442)
- April 8: Lost 2-1 vs. New York Islanders (15th, 1527)
- April 10: Won 5-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1419)
Next week:
- April 12: @ New York Rangers (7th, 1573)
- April 14: vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1423)
- April 16: @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1632)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1632 (▲4) 2 Florida Panthers (▲1) 1596 (▲10) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 1594 (▲11) 4 Calgary Flames (▲3) 1585 (▲24) 5 Carolina Hurricanes (▼3) 1577 (▼12) 6 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1574 (▲13) 7 New York Rangers (▲4) 1573 (▲16) 8 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 1560 9 Boston Bruins (▼4) 1555 (▼19) 10 Tampa Bay Lightning 1548 (▼10) 11 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 1545 (▲8) 12 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6) 1540 (▼24) 13 Nashville Predators 1537 (▲7) 14 Washington Capitals (▲3) 1533 (▲25) 15 New York Islanders (▼2) 1527 (▼3) 16 Vancouver Canucks (▲3) 1523 (▲20) 17 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 1514 (▼4) 18 Dallas Stars 1508 (▲4) 19 Los Angeles Kings (▼4) 1503 (▼21) 20 Winnipeg Jets 1491 (▼1) 21 Columbus Blue Jackets 1458 (▼1) 22 Buffalo Sabres 1442 (▼3) 23 San Jose Sharks 1433 (▼10) 24 Ottawa Senators 1429 (▼9) 25 Detroit Red Wings (▲6) 1423 (▲20) 26 Anaheim Ducks 1419 27 Seattle Kraken (▲2) 1412 28 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 1411 (▼6) 29 Chicago Blackhawks (▼4) 1409 (▼16) 30 Montreal Canadiens 1402 (▼3) 31 Arizona Coyotes (▼3) 1398 (▼15) 32 New Jersey Devils 1396 (▼2)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 68% (▼20) 2 New York Rangers 32% (▲22) 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins <1% (▼2) 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) — 5 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) — (▼2) 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) — 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) —
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 96% (▲8) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 4% (▼3) 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) <1% (▼1) 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning <1% (▼4) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres — 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings — 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens — 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators —
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild <1% 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) — 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) — 4 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) — (▼1) 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) — (▼1) 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) —
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 99% (▲9) 2 Edmonton Oilers 1% (▼4) 3 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) <1% (▼5) 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2) <1% 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) <1% (▼1) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1) — (▼1) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1) — (▼1) 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2) —
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes ✔ (▲1) 1 (tie) New York Rangers ✔ (▲1) 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) >99% 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) >99% (▲5) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) New York Islanders <1% (▼5) 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils — 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers —
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Florida Panthers ✔ 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) ✔ (▲1) 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) >99% 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) >99% 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres — (▼1) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings — (▼1) 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3) — 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators — (▼1)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche ✔ (▲1) 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) >99% 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) >99% (▲1) 4 Nashville Predators 94% (▲8) 5 Dallas Stars 88% (▲8) 6 Winnipeg Jets 1% (▼2) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) — 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks — (▼1)
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames >99% 2 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 98% (▲10) 3 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 63% (▼27) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 47% (▼6) 5 Vancouver Canucks 10% (▲8) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 8 Seattle Kraken —
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 67% (▲4) 2 Florida Panthers 33% (▲3)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 21% 2 Florida Panthers 11% (▲1) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 10% (▲2) 4 Calgary Flames (▲2) 9% (▲3) 5 Carolina Hurricanes (▼3) 8% (▼2) 6 New York Rangers (▲2) 7% (▲2) 7 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 6% (▲1) 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3) 4% (▼3) 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4) 4% 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild 4% (▼1) 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 4% (▼1) 12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6) 3% (▼3) 14 Washington Capitals (▲1) 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼2) 1% (▼2) 15 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 1% 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 18 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 18 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1% 24 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4) — 24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼6) — (▼1) 24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼6) — (▼1) 24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼6) — (▼1) 24 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲4) — 24 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲4) — 24 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼6) — (▼1) 24 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4) — 24 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲4) —