Month: April 2022

What’s with Colorado???  The big story in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week is Colorado’s abysmal week, as they lost all 4 of their games!  As a result, we took away 39 rating points (the most of any team this season!).  They are still the top-ranked team in our ratings, and the only team over the magic 1600 point mark, but they saw their chance of winning the President’s Trophy drop from 69% to 1%, and their chances of winning the Stanley Cup dropping from 24% to 14%.  A week ago, they seemed invincible; this week, not so much.

Other than that, there haven’t been a lot of changes.  Winnipeg was eliminated from playoff contention, and Edmonton clinched a playoff spot.  All the spots in the Eastern Conference had already been decided, but with a week to go in the season, there’s still five teams vying for the last 3 spots in the Western Conference.  Here’s how that race looks:

   Team                  GP  W   L   OTL  Pts  % Chance
 1 Los Angeles Kings     80  43  27  10    96  99 (▲29)
 2 Nashville Predators   79  44  29   6    94  98 (▲8)
 3 Dallas Stars          79  44  30   5    93  93 (▼2)
 4 Vegas Golden Knights  79  42  31   6    90  9  (▼26)
 5 Vancouver Canucks     79  38  30  11    87  <1 (▼11)

The top 5 teams stayed the same, although there was a bit of shifting in their placements in our rankings.  Moving up to second spot was St. Louis, who went 3-0-1 this week.  They see their chances of winning the Stanley Cup increasing from 8% to 10%.  They lost their first game of the week to 11th-ranked Boston in overtime, but then finished with three straight road wins, over 24th-ranked San Jose, 31st-ranked Arizona (this one in overtime), and 27th-ranked Anaheim.  Those teams they beat were weak teams, so we only awarded them 4 rating points, but that was good enough to move into 2nd place in the rankings.

Calgary is in 3rd place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, after going 3-0-1.  They beat 30th-ranked Chicago, 17th-ranked Dallas, and 15th-ranked Vancouver, but lost in overtime to 16th-ranked Nashville.  They picked up 15 rating points this week, and moved up from 5th spot in last week’s rankings to 3rd this week.

Dropping from 2nd to 4th was Florida.  They went 3-1-0, beating the 19th-ranked New York Islanders in overtime, 25th-ranked Detroit in regulation, and 5th-ranked Toronto in overtime, but lost to 10th-ranked Tampa Bay, giving up 8 goals in the loss.  They are expected to win the President’s Trophy, as we’re giving them a 99% chance of doing so, after Colorado’s bad week.  You might be wondering, how can the team with the best record in the NHL be ranked 4th?  Well, it’s close between #2, #3, and #4, with St. Louis at 1598 points, Calgary at 1596, and Florida at 1594.  Plus, despite going 3-1-0 this week, two of those wins required overtime.  I’m not sure why Colorado and Florida aren’t looking so good lately; maybe they’re resting up for the playoffs.

Finally, rounding out the top 5 is Toronto.  They went 2-1-1, and dropped from 4th to 5th.  They beat 28th-ranked Philadelphia in regulation time and 11th-ranked Washington in a shootout, but lost to 10th-ranked Tampa Bay in an 8-1 blowout, and 3-2 to 4th-ranked Florida in overtime.  Perhaps unbelievably, we’re giving them a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup!  Will they erase the curse of Harold Ballard?  Probably not, but millions of Leaf fans hope otherwise.

Once again, I have to end this week’s report on a sad note.  Guy Lafleur died this week at the age of 70 from cancer.  He was one of my favourite players, and I used to have a picture of him up on my bedroom wall when I was younger, right beside my picture of Ken Dryden.  It was a big thrill for me when I got to see him play in an Old-Timers game in Saskatoon; he still had the speed and the flowing hair when he made a break!  I was very sad to hear of his passing.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1605, ▼39)

Record: 55-18-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼68)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▼10)

Last week: 0-4-0

• April 18: Lost 3-2 vs. Washington Capitals (11th, 1552)
• April 20: Lost 3-2 @ Seattle Kraken (26th, 1418)
• April 22: Lost 6-3 @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1558)
• April 24: Lost 4-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1486)

Next week:

• April 26: vs. St. Louis Blues (2nd, 1598)
• April 28: vs. Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
• April 29: @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1579)

2. St. Louis Blues ▲1 (1598, ▲4)

Record: 49-20-11, 3rd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• April 19: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1552)
• April 21: Won 3-1 @ San Jose Sharks (24th, 1444)
• April 23: Won in OT 5-4 @ Arizona Coyotes (31st, 1377)
• April 24: Won 6-3 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1416)

Next week:

• April 26: @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1605)
• April 29: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (18th, 1506)

3. Calgary Flames ▲2 (1596, ▲15)

Record: 49-20-10, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲4)

Last week: 3-0-1

• April 18: Won 5-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1385)
• April 19: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
• April 21: Won 4-2 vs. Dallas Stars (17th, 1508)
• April 23: Won 6-3 vs. Vancouver Canucks (15th, 1519)

Next week:

• April 26: @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
• April 28: @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1579)
• April 29: @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1486)

4. Florida Panthers ▼2 (1594, ▼8)

Record: 57-16-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 99% (▲68)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• April 19: Won in OT 3-2 @ New York Islanders (19th, 1500)
• April 21: Won 5-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1428)
• April 23: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (5th, 1588)
• April 24: Lost 8-4 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1556)

Next week:

• April 26: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1552)
• April 28: @ Ottawa Senators (22nd, 1452)
• April 29: @ Montreal Canadiens (32nd, 1359)

5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1588, ▼4)

Record: 52-21-7, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 2-1-1

• April 19: Won 5-2 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (28th, 1404)
• April 21: Lost 8-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1556)
• April 23: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Florida Panthers (4th, 1594)
• April 24: Won in SO 4-3 @ Washington Capitals (11th, 1552)

Next week:

• April 26: vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1428)
• April 29: vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1552)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1605 (▼39)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1598 (▲4)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲2)           1596 (▲15)
 4       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1594 (▼8)
 5       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1588 (▼4)
 6       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1582 (▲14)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1579 (▲15)
 8       New York Rangers (▼2)         1578 (▲4)
 9       Edmonton Oilers               1558 (▲5)
10       Tampa Bay Lightning           1556 (▲12)
11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            1552 (▲8)
11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      1552 (▲16)
13       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1543 (▲3)
14       Los Angeles Kings (▲5)        1527 (▲16)
15       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1519 (▼7)
16       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1517 (▼6)
17       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1508 (▼13)
18       Vegas Golden Knights          1506 (▼13)
19       New York Islanders (▼3)       1500 (▼21)
20       Winnipeg Jets                 1486
21       Buffalo Sabres                1475 (▲15)
22       Ottawa Senators               1452 (▲2)
23       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1451 (▲1)
24       San Jose Sharks               1444 (▲10)
25       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1428 (▲10)
26       Seattle Kraken (▲1)           1418 (▲10)
27       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1416 (▼17)
28       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1404 (▲15)
29       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1401 (▼1)
30       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1385 (▼14)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1377 (▼6)
32       Montreal Canadiens            1359 (▼21)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           93% (▲36)
 2       New York Rangers              7% (▼36)
 3 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    —
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       —
 3 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        —
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      —
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           — (▼1)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals           — (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              ✔ (▲1)
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2)            —
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        —
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           — (▼1)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           — (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild                —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                ✔ (▲1)
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               — (▼1)
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        —
 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        —
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     —

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) New York Rangers              ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               ✔
 4       Nashville Predators (▲1)      98% (▲8)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             93% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          —
 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       —
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 — (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1 (tie) Calgary Flames                ✔
 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          ✔ (▲1)
 3       Los Angeles Kings             99% (▲29)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          9% (▼26)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼11)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken                —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Florida Panthers (▲1)         99% (▲68)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1% (▼68)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14% (▼10)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲2)           12% (▲4)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         11% (▼1)
 4       St. Louis Blues               10% (▲2)
 5       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      9%
 6       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      8% (▲2)
 7       New York Rangers (▼1)         7%
 8       Minnesota Wild                6% (▲2)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Boston Bruins                 4% (▲1)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (▲1)
10 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      4% (▲2)
13       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      3%
14       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2)      1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
17 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     <1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            —
19 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          —
19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           —
19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       —
19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    —
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        —
19 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       —
19 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       —
19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        —
19 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          —
19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      —
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          —
19 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           —
19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            — (▼1)

 

The NHL regular season is quickly drawing to a close, although the season has been extended by a day.  The Seattle / Winnipeg game originally scheduled for last Wednesday was postponed due to the massive snow storm that Winnipeg got, and has been moved to May 1 instead.  Other than that, there’s about two weeks left in the season.

Teams that clinched playoff spots this week were Boston, Calgary, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Washington; they join Carolina, Colorado, Florida, New York Rangers, and Toronto who had previously earned spots in the playoffs.  Teams that were eliminated from playoff contention this week were Anaheim, Columbus, New York Islanders, and San Jose.  As a result, all of the playoff spots in the Eastern Conference have been decided, but there’s still seven teams battling it out for the last four spots in the Western Conference.  Here’s how that currently looks:

   Team                  GP  W   L   OTL  Pts  % Chance
 1 Edmonton Oilers       76  44  26   6    94  >99 (▲2)
 2 Dallas Stars          75  43  27   5    91  95 (▲7)
 3 Nashville Predators   76  43  28   5    91  90 (▼4)
 4 Los Angeles Kings     77  40  27  10    90  70 (▲7)
 ---
 5 Vegas Golden Knights  76  41  30   5    87  35 (▼12)
 6 Vancouver Canucks     75  37  28  10    84  11 (▲1)
 7 Winnipeg Jets         76  35  30  11    81  <1 (▼1)

The battle for the President’s Trophy continues, with only two teams having reasonable chances of finishing with the best record in the NHL.  Here’s the complete list of teams that still have a chance of winning it:

   Team                  GP  W   L   OTL  Pts  % Chance
 1 Colorado Avalanche    75  55  14   6   116  69 (▲2)
 2 Florida Panthers      75  54  15   6   114  31 (▼2)
 3 Toronto Maple Leafs   76  50  20   6   106  <1
 4 Carolina Hurricanes   76  48  20   8   104  <1
 5 New York Rangers      76  49  21   6   104  <1

Colorado remains in the top spot in our McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They won all three of their games this week, against 19th-ranked Los Angeles, 28th-ranked New Jersey, and 7th-ranked Carolina.  They are looking dominant, and are far ahead of any other team in our rating points, 42 more than the next-closest team.  They are our favourites to win the Stanley Cup, sitting at a season-high 24% probability, and the President’s Trophy, at 69%.

Florida continues to be our second-ranked team.  They also went 3-0-0 this week, although they had a pretty easy schedule this week, with wins over 25th-ranked Anaheim in overtime, 20th-ranked Winnipeg, and 26th-ranked Detroit.  They have crossed that magical 1600 rating point milestone, sitting at 1602 rating points.  They are the only other team besides Colorado that has a reasonable chance of winning the President’s Trophy; we’re giving them a 31% probability of doing that.  They are also the second-most likely team to win the Stanley Cup, at 12%.

There’s a new entry in the top 5 this week, with St. Louis entering the top 5 for what I think is the first team this season.  They’ve been hovering in the top 10 for quite a while, and after going 4-0-0 this week, they finally made the leap!  This week, they had 3 road victories, beating 10th-ranked Boston, 21st-ranked Buffalo, and 15th-ranked Nashville.  Their lone home game was an overtime victory against 8th-ranked Minnesota.  They clinched a playoff spot this week, but were eliminated from contention for the President’s Trophy.  We’re giving them an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 6% last week.

Toronto dropped down one spot in the rankings to fourth.  They had a 3-1-0 record this week, losing to 21st-ranked Buffalo to start the week, but then winning their next three games, against 13th-ranked Washington, 22nd-ranked Ottawa (this one in overtime), and the 16th-ranked New York Islanders.  We still have them as the 3rd-most likely team to win the Stanley Cup, at 9%.  It helps not being in the same conference as Colorado!

Rounding out the top 5 is Calgary, who also dropped down one spot from last week.  They went 2-1-0 in three home games, with victories over 27th-ranked Seattle and 31st-ranked Arizona, but lost to 18th-ranked Vegas.  They did clinch a playoff spot this week, though.

Dropping out of the top 5 to make way for St. Louis was Carolina.  They dropped two spots to 7th after going 1-2-0, beating the 6th-ranked New York Rangers but losing to 26th-ranked Detroit and top-ranked Colorado.  They still sit in top spot in the Metropolitan Division, but their chances of winning that division have dropped 68% to 57%; the Rangers are the only other team with a reasonable chance of winning that division, at 43%.

I hate ending on a sad note, but I will — Hall of Famer Mike Bossy passed away this week.  He won four Stanley Cup with the New York Islanders from 1980 to 1983.  He’s the second member of that Islander dynasty to pass away this year, after Clark Gillies died in January.  I was a big fan of that team.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1644, ▲12)

Record: 55-14-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 69% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 24% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 13: Won 9-3 vs. Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1511)
• April 14: Won 3-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (28th, 1402)
• April 16: Won 7-4 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (7th, 1568)

Next week:

• April 18: vs. Washington Capitals (13th, 1536)
• April 20: @ Seattle Kraken (27th, 1408)
• April 22: @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1553)
• April 24: @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1486)

2. Florida Panthers (1602, ▲6)

Record: 54-15-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 31% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 12: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (25th, 1433)
• April 15: Won 6-1 vs. Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1486)
• April 17: Won 6-1 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1418)

Next week:

• April 19: @ New York Islanders (16th, 1521)
• April 21: vs. Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1418)
• April 23: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (4th, 1592)
• April 24: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1544)

3. St. Louis Blues ▲3 (1594, ▲20)

Record: 46-20-10, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• April 12: Won 4-2 @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1544)
• April 14: Won 6-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (21st, 1460)
• April 16: Won in OT 6-5 vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1564)
• April 17: Won 8-3 @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1523)

Next week:

• April 19: vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1544)
• April 21: @ San Jose Sharks (24th, 1434)
• April 23: @ Arizona Coyotes (31st, 1383)
• April 24: @ Anaheim Ducks (25th, 1433)

4. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1592, ▼2)

Record: 50-20-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• April 12: Lost 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (21st, 1460)
• April 14: Won 7-3 vs. Washington Capitals (13th, 1536)
• April 16: Won in OT 5-4 @ Ottawa Senators (22nd, 1450)
• April 17: Won 4-2 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1521)

Next week:

• April 19: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (30th, 1389)
• April 21: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1544)
• April 23: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1602)
• April 24: @ Washington Capitals (13th, 1536)

5. Calgary Flames ▼1 (1581, ▼4)

Record: 46-20-9, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• April 12: Won 5-3 vs. Seattle Kraken (27th, 1408)
• April 14: Lost 6-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (18th, 1519)
• April 16: Won 9-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31st, 1383)

Next week:

• April 18: @ Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1399)
• April 19: @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1523)
• April 21: vs. Dallas Stars (16th, 1521)
• April 23: vs. Vancouver Canucks (14th, 1526)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1644 (▲12)
 2       Florida Panthers              1602 (▲6)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▲3)          1594 (▲20)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1592 (▼2)
 5       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1581 (▼4)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         1574 (▲1)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes (▼2)      1568 (▼9)
 8       Minnesota Wild                1564 (▲4)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1553 (▲8)
10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            1544 (▼11)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           1544 (▼4)
12       Pittsburgh Penguins           1540
13       Washington Capitals (▲1)      1536 (▲3)
14       Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        1526 (▲3)
15       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1523 (▼14)
16 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2)             1521 (▲13)
16 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       1521 (▼6)
18       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     1519 (▲5)
19       Los Angeles Kings             1511 (▲8)
20       Winnipeg Jets                 1486 (▼5)
21       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1460 (▲18)
22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1450 (▼8)
22 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          1450 (▲21)
24       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1434 (▲1)
25       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1433 (▲14)
26       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1418 (▼5)
27       Seattle Kraken                1408 (▼4)
28       New Jersey Devils (▲4)        1402 (▲6)
29       Chicago Blackhawks            1399 (▼10)
30       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1389 (▼22)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1383 (▼15)
32       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1380 (▼22)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           57% (▼11)
 2       New York Rangers              43% (▲11)
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           <1%
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals           <1%
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              >99% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      <1%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1% (▼4)
 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            —
 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           —
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        —
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       —
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          —

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          —
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2)             —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild                — (▼1)
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues               — (▼1)
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            —

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                >99% (▲1)
 2       Edmonton Oilers               <1% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3)            —
 3 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             — (▼1)
 3 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲3)          —
 3 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲3)           —
 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             — (▼1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          — (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) New York Rangers              ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      ✔ (▲1)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      ✔ (▲1)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         — (▼1)
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            — (▼1)
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      —

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2)            ✔ (▲1)
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      ✔ (▲1)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           ✔ (▲1)
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          ✔ (▲1)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             95% (▲7)
 5       Nashville Predators (▼1)      90% (▼4)
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                ✔ (▲1)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          >99% (▲2)
 3       Los Angeles Kings             70% (▲7)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          35% (▼12)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             11% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 — (▼1)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               — (▼1)
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            69% (▲2)
 2       Florida Panthers              31% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            24% (▲3)
 2       Florida Panthers              12% (▲1)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames                8% (▼1)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          8% (▲2)
 6       New York Rangers              7%
 7       Carolina Hurricanes (▼2)      6% (▼2)
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               4%
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4%
10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            3% (▼1)
10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      3%
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2)             2% (▲1)
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      2%
16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1%
16 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%
18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%
20 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            — (▼1)
20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4)          —
20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲4)           —
20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲4)       —
20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    — (▼1)
20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲4)        —
20 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲4)       —
20 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)       — (▼1)
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲4)        —
20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲4)          —
20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      —
20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼2)          — (▼1)
20 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲4)           —

 

We’re getting closer and closer to the end of the regular season, and the playoff picture is becoming clearer.  As usual, there hasn’t been much change in our top 5, which we feel is a good indication of the accuracy of our models.  But despite that, our top choice for winning the Stanley Cup only gets about a 1-in-5 chance of winning it all.  Hockey can be difficult to predict!

Colorado remains the top team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.  They’ve been the top team for months, but only this week did they clinch a playoff spot!  We’re giving them a 67% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 21% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  This week, they went 3-0-0, although only one of those victories came in regulation time.  All three of their games were on the road.  They are the only team with a rating over that magic 1600 point, and are a whopping 36 rating points ahead of the 2nd-ranked team.

That 2nd-ranked team is the Florida Panthers this week, who passed last week’s #2 team, the Carolina Hurricanes.  Florida went 3-0-0 this week, with an overtime win against 3rd-ranked Toronto, and regulation wins over 22nd-ranked Buffalo and 13th-ranked Nashville.  They are the only other team that we’re giving a reasonable chance of winning the President’s Trophy, with a 33% chance.

Here’s the race for the President’s Trophy:

   Team                 GP  W   L   OTL  Pts  % Chance
 1 Colorado Avalanche   72  52  14   6   110   67 (▲4)
 2 Florida Panthers     72  51  15   6   108   33 (▲3)

Last week, Carolina was also in the race, just barely at 6%, but now we give them less than a 1% chance of winning it.

Back to the top 5 — Toronto has moved into 3rd spot in our rankings.  Toronto!  The Maple Leafs!  What’s up with that???  On Hockey Night In Canada on Saturday, they won a classic matchup with Montreal, and that win clinched a playoff spot for them!  That game closed off a 3-0-1 week, with regulation victories over 10th-ranked Tampa Bay and 30th-ranked Montreal, an overtime victory over 18th-ranked Dallas, and an overtime loss to 2nd-ranked Florida.  We’re giving them a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Next in the top 5 is Calgary, clocking in at #4, up three spots from last week.  They went 4-0-0 in 4 road games this week, with all four wins coming in regulation time, although all those games were against bottom-half teams.  They beat 19th-ranked Los Angeles, 26th-ranked Anaheim, 23rd-ranked San Jose, and 27th-ranked Seattle.  We’ve calculated that they’ve got a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Rounding out the top 5 are the Carolina Hurricanes, who dropped 3 spots from #2 in last week’s rankings.  They had a very middling week, going 2-2-0, splitting a home-and-home pair with 22nd-ranked Buffalo, losing to the 15th-ranked New York Islanders, and finishing the week with a win over the 26th-ranked Anaheim.  Despite their so-so week, they did clinch a playoff spot.

Dropping out of the top 5 was Boston, who had a pretty crappy week, going 2-2-0, with both of their wins coming in overtime.  They started the week beating 21st-ranked Columbus, followed it up with loss to 25th-ranked Detroit, then turned it around with a victory over 10th-ranked Tampa Bay, and finished it off by losing to 14th-ranked Washington.  After this week’s performance, we took away 19 rating points and almost halved their chances of winning the Stanley Cup, dropping that from 7% to 4%.

This week’s big movers were Washington and Vancouver, with both teams going 3-0-0.  We increased Washington’s rating by 25 points, moving them up from 17th to 14th in our rankings.  We awarded Vancouver an additional 20 rating points, moving them from 19th to 16th, but they’ve still got a ways to go to make the playoffs — we’re only giving them a 10% chance of making the playoffs, but that’s up from 2% last week!

The biggest downward move in our ratings was by Pittsburgh, who went 1-3-0, with losses to 1st-ranked Colorado, 7th-ranked New York Rangers, and 14th-ranked Washington, although they finished up the week with an overtime win over 13th-ranked Nashville.  This poor performance dropped them 24 rating points, and moved them in our rankings from 6th all the way down to 12th.  We’re still expecting them to make the playoffs, though, with a greater than 99% chance.

Also having a bad week was Los Angeles.  Last week, we gave them a 90% chance of making the playoffs, but after losing all three of this week’s games, we’ve dropped that to 63%.  They’ve also dropped from 15th in our rankings to 19th this week.

Teams clinching playoff spots this week were Carolina, Colorado, New York Rangers, and Toronto, joining Florida who clinched last week.  Newly eliminated from playoff contention were Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, and Ottawa.

And let’s finish off this week’s report looking at the race for the playoff spots in the West (we figure the East teams have already been decided).  Although Colorado is the only Western team to have clinched a playoff spot, we’re giving Calgary, Minnesota, and St. Louis a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs.  Again this week, we think there’s 5 teams fighting it out for the remaining 4 spots:

   Team                  GP  W   L   OTL  Pts  % Chance
 1 Edmonton Oilers       73  42  25   6    90  98 (▲10)
 2 Nashville Predators   72  41  26   5    87  94 (▲8)
 3 Dallas Stars          72  41  27   4    86  88 (▲8)
 4 Los Angeles Kings     74  38  26  10    86  63 (▼27)
 5 Vegas Golden Knights  73  40  29   4    84  47 (▼6)

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1632, ▲4)

Record: 52-14-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 67% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 21%

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 5: Won 6-4 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1540)
• April 8: Won in OT 5-4 @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1491)
• April 9: Won in SO 2-1 @ Edmonton Oilers (11th, 1545)

Next week:

• April 13: vs. Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1503)
• April 14: vs. New Jersey Devils (32nd, 1396)
• April 16: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1577)

2. Florida Panthers ▲1 (1596, ▲10)

Record: 51-15-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 33% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 5: Won in OT 7-6 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1594)
• April 8: Won 4-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1442)
• April 9: Won 4-1 @ Nashville Predators (13th, 1537)

Next week:

• April 12: vs. Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1419)
• April 15: vs. Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1491)
• April 17: @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1423)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲1 (1594, ▲11)

Record: 47-19-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• April 4: Won 6-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1548)
• April 5: Lost in OT 7-6 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1596)
• April 7: Won in OT 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (18th, 1508)
• April 9: Won 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1402)

Next week:

• April 12: vs. Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1442)
• April 14: vs. Washington Capitals (14th, 1533)
• April 16: @ Ottawa Senators (24th, 1429)
• April 17: vs. New York Islanders (15th, 1527)

4. Calgary Flames ▲3 (1585, ▲24)

Record: 44-19-9, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• April 4: Won 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1503)
• April 6: Won 4-2 @ Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1419)
• April 7: Won 4-2 @ San Jose Sharks (23rd, 1433)
• April 9: Won 4-1 @ Seattle Kraken (27th, 1412)

Next week:

• April 12: vs. Seattle Kraken (27th, 1412)
• April 14: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (17th, 1514)
• April 16: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31st, 1398)

5. Carolina Hurricanes ▼3 (1577, ▼12)

Record: 47-18-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼2)

Last week: 2-2-0

• April 5: Lost 4-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1442)
• April 7: Won 5-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1442)
• April 8: Lost 2-1 vs. New York Islanders (15th, 1527)
• April 10: Won 5-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1419)

Next week:

• April 12: @ New York Rangers (7th, 1573)
• April 14: vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1423)
• April 16: @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1632)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1632 (▲4)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1596 (▲10)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      1594 (▲11)
 4       Calgary Flames (▲3)           1585 (▲24)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▼3)      1577 (▼12)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1574 (▲13)
 7       New York Rangers (▲4)         1573 (▲16)
 8       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1560
 9       Boston Bruins (▼4)            1555 (▼19)
10       Tampa Bay Lightning           1548 (▼10)
11       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1545 (▲8)
12       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1540 (▼24)
13       Nashville Predators           1537 (▲7)
14       Washington Capitals (▲3)      1533 (▲25)
15       New York Islanders (▼2)       1527 (▼3)
16       Vancouver Canucks (▲3)        1523 (▲20)
17       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     1514 (▼4)
18       Dallas Stars                  1508 (▲4)
19       Los Angeles Kings (▼4)        1503 (▼21)
20       Winnipeg Jets                 1491 (▼1)
21       Columbus Blue Jackets         1458 (▼1)
22       Buffalo Sabres                1442 (▼3)
23       San Jose Sharks               1433 (▼10)
24       Ottawa Senators               1429 (▼9)
25       Detroit Red Wings (▲6)        1423 (▲20)
26       Anaheim Ducks                 1419
27       Seattle Kraken (▲2)           1412
28       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1411 (▼6)
29       Chicago Blackhawks (▼4)       1409 (▼16)
30       Montreal Canadiens            1402 (▼3)
31       Arizona Coyotes (▼3)          1398 (▼15)
32       New Jersey Devils             1396 (▼2)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           68% (▼20)
 2       New York Rangers              32% (▲22)
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           <1% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      <1%
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    —
 5 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       — (▼2)
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      —

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              96% (▲8)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           4% (▼3)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            <1% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           <1% (▼4)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild                <1%
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          —
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       —
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             — (▼1)
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      — (▼1)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            —

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                99% (▲9)
 2       Edmonton Oilers               1% (▼4)
 3 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        <1% (▼5)
 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        <1%
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            — (▼1)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          — (▼1)
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           —

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔ (▲1)
 1 (tie) New York Rangers              ✔ (▲1)
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      >99%
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      >99% (▲5)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1% (▼5)
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      ✔ (▲1)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            >99%
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      >99%
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                — (▼1)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             — (▼1)
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               — (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔ (▲1)
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           >99%
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          >99% (▲1)
 4       Nashville Predators           94% (▲8)
 5       Dallas Stars                  88% (▲8)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 1% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          —
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            — (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                >99%
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          98% (▲10)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        63% (▼27)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          47% (▼6)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             10% (▲8)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 8       Seattle Kraken                —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            67% (▲4)
 2       Florida Panthers              33% (▲3)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21%
 2       Florida Panthers              11% (▲1)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      10% (▲2)
 4       Calgary Flames (▲2)           9% (▲3)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▼3)      8% (▼2)
 6       New York Rangers (▲2)         7% (▲2)
 7       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          6% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            4% (▼3)
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          4%
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (▼1)
12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      3% (▼3)
14       Washington Capitals (▲1)      2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼2)        1% (▼2)
15 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1%
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
18 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%
18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%
24 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4)          —
24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼6)           — (▼1)
24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼6)       — (▼1)
24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼6)        — (▼1)
24 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲4)       —
24 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲4)        —
24 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼6)          — (▼1)
24 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      —
24 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲4)           —

 

Ah, after three weeks without the witty commentary that you pay the big bucks to enjoy, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings commentary is back.  As a bonus, the commentary will also be insightful this week, and in some cases, may even be surprising.  But I doubt it.

Colorado continues to be the top-ranked team in our ratings, as they have been for most of the season.  They demonstrated their strength again this week, going 3-0-0, defeating 7th-ranked Calgary on the road, and 23rd-ranked San Jose and 6th-ranked Pittsburgh at home.  They’ve gained an additional 18 rating points, and remain by far the strongest team in our rankings.  Although they haven’t clinched a playoff spot yet, they are our favourites to win both the President’s Trophy (63% chance) and the Stanley Cup (a whopping 21% chance).

Once again, Carolina is our 2nd-ranked team, a whopping 39 rating points behind Colorado.  They had a middling week, going 2-1-1, with wins over 17th-ranked Washington and 30th-ranked Montreal, an overtime loss to 10th-ranked Tampa Bay, and a regulation loss to 9th-ranked Minnesota.  Based on this performance, we didn’t change their ratings; we still think 1589 is a fair rating for the Hurricanes.

Moving into 3rd in our rankings is Florida, up from 5th, who are the first team in the league to clinch a playoff spot.  They went 4-0-0 this week, but all of their games were against bottom-half teams, so their rating only went up 10 points this week, just 3 points behind Carolina.  They beat 30th-ranked Montreal, 25th-ranked Chicago, and 22nd-ranked Buffalo in regulation time, but it took them overtime to beat worst-ranked New Jersey.  They are the second favourites for winning the President’s Trophy, at 30%, and the Stanley Cup, at 10% (tied with Carolina).

We see only three teams having reasonable chances of winning the President’s Trophy.  Here’s the current standings:

   Team                 GP  W   L   OTL  Pts  % Chance
 1 Colorado Avalanche   69  49  14   6   104     63
 2 Florida Panthers     69  48  15   6   102     30
 3 Carolina Hurricanes  69  45  16   8    98      6

Toronto has moved back into our top 5, jumping 4 ranking spots to 4th.  They went 3-0-0 this week, with regulation victories over 5th-ranked Boston, 20th-ranked Winnipeg, and 27th-ranked Philadelphia.  Leaf centre Auston Matthews was the first player to reach 50 goals in the league this year, and he now leads the league with 51.  With their spotless record this week, we awarded them 19 rating points, and they now have 1583, just 3 behind 3rd-ranked Carolina.

Also moving back into the top 5 was Boston, who moved up from 6th last week.  They went 2-1-0 this week, defeating 32nd-ranked New Jersey and 21st-ranked Columbus, but losing to 4th-ranked Toronto.

Dropping out of the top 5 were Calgary and Pittsburgh.  Calgary was ranked 3rd last week, but fell to 7th this week.  They lost all three of their games this week, to top-ranked Colorado and 7th-ranked St. Louis in regulation time, and 15th-ranked Los Angeles in a shootout.  Pittsburgh dropped from 5th to 6th, after going 1-2-0, beating 9th-ranked Minnesota in overtime, but losing to 11th-ranked New York Rangers and #1 Colorado.

The biggest upward movers this week were the New York Islanders, St. Louis, and Minnesota.  The Islanders went 4-0-0, with all their victories coming in regulation time.  They beat 21st-ranked Columbus twice, as well as the 11th-ranked Rangers and league-worst New Jersey, and gained 30 rating points, moving from 19th spot in our rankings all the way up to 13th.

St. Louis went 3-0-1 and were awarded 23 rating points, enough to move from 10th to 7th.  They beat 19th-ranked Vancouver twice and 7th-ranked Calgary once, but lost to 12th-ranked Edmonton in overtime.  Minnesota also went 3-0-1, and moved up from 10th to 9th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.  They beat 27th-ranked Philadelphia, 2nd-ranked Carolina, and 17th-ranked Washington, but fell in overtime to 6th-ranked Pittsburgh.

The big downward movers were the afore-mentioned Calgary Flames, Columbus, and San Jose.  Columbus and San Jose both lost all three of their games this week in regulation time, and lost 19 rating points.  Columbus did retain their ranking in 21st, and San Jose dropped one spot to 23rd.

With less than a month remaining in the season, we’re starting to see the playoff picture solidify a bit.  Florida is the only team to have clinched a playoff spot, but a number of teams have been mathematically eliminated from making the playoffs: New Jersey and Philadelphia in the Metropolitan Division, Montreal in the Atlantic Division, Arizona in the Central Division, and Seattle in the Pacific Division.  According to the boys in the back room, though, most of the playoff spots look pretty clear, at least in the Eastern Conference.  In the East, we’re predicting Carolina, the Rangers, Pittsburgh, and Washington from the Metropolitan Division, and Boston, Florida, Tampa Bay, and Toronto from the Atlantic Division.  The picture is a little less clear in the West, although we are confident that Colorado, Minnesota, and St. Louis will make it from the Central Division, as well as Calgary from the Pacific Division.  Here’s the chances we’re giving the remaining teams for the last 4 spots:

   Team                  GP  W   L   OTL  Pts  % Chance
 1 Los Angeles Kings     71  38  23  10    86     90
 2 Edmonton Oilers       70  40  25   5    85     88
 3 Nashville Predators   68  39  25   4    82     86
 4 Dallas Stars          68  39  26   3    81     80
 5 Vegas Golden Knights  71  39  28   4    82     53

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1628, ▲18)

Record: 49-14-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 63% (▲12)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 21% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 29: Won 2-1 @ Calgary Flames (7th, 1561)
• March 31: Won 4-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (23rd, 1443)
• April 2: Won 3-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1564)

Next week:

• April 5: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1564)
• April 8: @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1492)
• April 9: @ Edmonton Oilers (12th, 1537)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1589)

Record: 45-16-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼14)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 28: Won 6-1 @ Washington Capitals (17th, 1508)
• March 29: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1558)
• March 31: Won 4-0 vs. Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1405)
• April 2: Lost 3-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1560)

Next week:

• April 5: @ Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1445)
• April 7: vs. Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1445)
• April 8: vs. New York Islanders (13th, 1530)
• April 10: vs. Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1419)

3. Florida Panthers ▲2 (1586, ▲10)

Record: 48-15-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔ (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 30% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 29: Won 7-4 vs. Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1405)
• March 31: Won 4-0 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1425)
• April 2: Won in OT 7-6 @ New Jersey Devils (32nd, 1398)
• April 3: Won 5-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1445)

Next week:

• April 5: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (4th, 1583)
• April 8: vs. Buffalo Sabres (22nd, 1445)
• April 9: @ Nashville Predators (13th, 1530)

4. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲4 (1583, ▲19)

Record: 44-19-5, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 29: Won 6-4 @ Boston Bruins (5th, 1574)
• March 31: Won 7-3 vs. Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1492)
• April 2: Won 6-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1417)

Next week:

• April 4: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1558)
• April 5: @ Florida Panthers (3rd, 1586)
• April 7: @ Dallas Stars (18th, 1504)
• April 9: vs. Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1405)

5. Boston Bruins ▲1 (1574)

Record: 43-20-5, 4th in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 29: Lost 6-4 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (4th, 1583)
• March 31: Won 8-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (32nd, 1398)
• April 2: Won 5-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1459)

Next week:

• April 4: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1459)
• April 5: @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1403)
• April 8: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1558)
• April 10: @ Washington Capitals (17th, 1508)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1628 (▲18)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1589
 3       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1586 (▲10)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲4)      1583 (▲19)
 5       Boston Bruins (▲1)            1574
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1564 (▼15)
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           1561 (▼19)
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          1561 (▲23)
 9       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1560 (▲22)
10       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1558
11       New York Rangers (▼4)         1557 (▼8)
12       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1537 (▲10)
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▲6)       1530 (▲30)
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1530 (▼4)
15       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1524
16       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     1518 (▲13)
17       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1508 (▼15)
18       Dallas Stars (▲1)             1504 (▲4)
19       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        1503 (▼15)
20       Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            1492 (▼13)
21       Columbus Blue Jackets         1459 (▼19)
22       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1445 (▲12)
23       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1443 (▼19)
24       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1438 (▲9)
25       Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1425 (▼18)
26       Anaheim Ducks                 1419 (▼4)
27       Philadelphia Flyers           1417 (▼5)
28       Arizona Coyotes               1413 (▼4)
29       Seattle Kraken (▲3)           1412 (▲8)
30       Montreal Canadiens            1405 (▼2)
31       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1403 (▼11)
32       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1398 (▼7)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           88% (▲8)
 2       New York Rangers              10% (▼3)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           2% (▼4)
 4 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           <1%
 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         — (▼1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils             — (▼1)
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           — (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              88% (▲10)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      7%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      4% (▼5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 1% (▼5)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                — (▼1)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             — (▼1)
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            — (▼1)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               — (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             <1%
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild                <1% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          <1%
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          — (▼1)
 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       — (▼1)
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            — (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                90% (▼7)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          5% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             5% (▲2)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          1% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            <1%
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          <1%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        <1%
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           — (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) New York Rangers              >99%
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           >99%
 4       Washington Capitals           95% (▼4)
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       5% (▲5)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             — (▼1)
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           — (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              ✔ (▲1)
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            — (▼1)

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           >99% (▲1)
 3       St. Louis Blues               99% (▲6)
 4       Nashville Predators           86% (▼6)
 5       Dallas Stars                  80% (▲7)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 3% (▼12)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 8       Arizona Coyotes               — (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                >99%
 2       Los Angeles Kings             90%
 3       Edmonton Oilers               88% (▲14)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          53% (▲16)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             2% (▼23)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken (▲1)           — (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63% (▲12)
 2       Florida Panthers              30% (▲5)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           6% (▼14)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           10%
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         10% (▲2)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      8% (▲2)
 5       Boston Bruins (▲1)            7%
 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           6% (▼4)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      6% (▼2)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           5% (▲1)
 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          5% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      5%
12       Edmonton Oilers               4% (▲1)
13       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3%
14       Nashville Predators (▼2)      2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1%
15 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     1%
15 (tie) Washington Capitals           1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
18 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
18 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       <1%
18 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        <1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            <1%
28 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼9)          — (▼1)
28 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼9)       — (▼1)
28 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼9)        — (▼1)
28 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼9)      — (▼1)
28 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼9)           — (▼1)