Month: September 2021

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 8

CFL logoIt was a quieter week in the CFL this week with only 3 games played.  Plus, the first game of the week was played on Wednesday, and two games were played on Friday.  No weekend games!  Very odd.  Plus, one game that looked close in the final score wasn’t, and another that didn’t look close was!

The Wednesday night game saw number 3-ranked Hamilton visit the lowest ranked team in the CFL, Ottawa.  Hamilton beat the RedBlacks easily, 24-7.  In a rainy night in Ottawa, the RedBlacks were only able to score one special teams touchdown, as DeVonte Dedmon returned a punt 63 yards for Ottawa’s only score.

In the first game of a Friday night doubleheader, Montreal visited Toronto.  Toronto led 21-10 at the half, and 30-20 with just over a minute left.  Montreal scored a touchdown to make the game closer, but weren’t able to come back, as Toronto defeated Montreal 30-27.  Vernon Adams passed for 382 yards for the Alouettes, and William Stanback rushed for another 133, but neither performance was enough to secure the victory.

And the most exciting game of the week, Saskatchewan squeaked by British Columbia 31-24.  BC led 24-18 with 20 seconds to go in the game, but the Riders were third and goal at the BC 1 yard line.  Cody Fajardo did the old quarterback sneak to tie up the game with 2 seconds left, and Brett Lauther converted to give the Riders a one point lead.  On the resulting kickoff, the Lions fumbled the ball, the Riders picked it up and rumbled into the endzone to put an exclamation mark on the victory!  Final score, Saskatchewan 31, BC 24.

Week 8 Results

Hamilton 24  at Ottawa 7
Montreal 27  at Toronto 30
Saskatchewan 31  at British Columbia 24

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There wasn’t a lot of movement in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings this week.  Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, and Hamilton remain numbers 1, 2, and 3.  Toronto jumped from 6th into a tie for 4th with British Columbia, pushing Calgary down to 6th.  There’s only 23 rating points separating the 4th through 8th teams, so all those teams are pretty close.  Ottawa continues to hold the lowest ranking.  And once again, only the top 3 teams have ratings above the 1500 point average.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1586 6-1, 1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1555 (▲13) 5-2, 2nd West
3 Hamilton 1543 (▲11) 4-3, T-1st East
T-4 (▲2) Toronto 1493 (▲11) 4-3, T-1st East
T-4 British Columbia 1493 (▼13) 4-3, 3rd West
6 (▼1) Calgary 1486 2-5, T-4th West
7 (▲1) Edmonton 1473 2-4, T-4th West
8 (▼1) Montreal 1470 (▼11) 2-4, 3rd East
9 Ottawa 1421 (▼11) 1-5, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, as they win it all in 29% of our simulations.  However, that is a drop of 1% from last week.  Hamilton is the second favourite at 26%.  Saskatchewan at 15% and Toronto at 12% are the only other teams with more than a 10% chance of winning.  And lowly Ottawa now has just a 1% chance of taking home the Cup.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1586 29% (▼1)
2 Hamilton 1543 26% (▲3)
3 Saskatchewan 1555 15% (▲3)
4 Toronto 1493 12% (▲2)
5 British Columbia 1493 6% (▼3)
6 Montreal 1470 5% (▼3)
7 (▲1) Edmonton 1473 2% (▼1)
8 (▲1) Calgary 1486 2%
9 (▼2) Ottawa 1421 1% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg

6-1
1st in West

 1586 >99% 93% 78% 90% 54% 29%
Hamilton

4-3
T-1st in East

 1543 97% 90% 60% 82% 49% 26%
Saskatchewan

5-2
2nd in West

 1555 96% 77% 15% 63% 28% 15%
Toronto

4-3
T-1st in East

 1493 90% 74% 33% 63% 29% 12%
British Columbia

4-3
3rd in West

 1493 80% 19% 5% 34% 13% 6%
Montreal

2-4
3rd in East

 1470 58% 27% 6% 30% 12% 5%
Edmonton

2-4
T-4th in West

 1473 31% 6% 1% 14% 5% 2%
Calgary

2-5
T-4th in West

 1486 27% 6% <1% 12% 5% 2%
Ottawa

1-5
4th in East

 1421 21% 9% 1% 10% 4% 1%

Week 9 Game Predictions

Edmonton (50%) at Ottawa (50%)
Winnipeg (55%) at British Columbia (44%)
Montreal (33%) at Hamilton (66%)
Saskatchewan (52%) at Calgary (47%)

2021/22 NHL schedule and results in Excel .xlsx and csv formats

Hockey playerThe post you’re currently reading is about the 2021/22 NHL schedule.  If you’re looking for the 2023/24 NHL schedule, you can find it in this post. Or, if you’re looking for the 2022/23 NHL schedule, you can find it in this post.

Note: The regular season has concluded, so the spreadsheet now covers the entire regular season.  It will not be updated further.

Another note: I’ve added another spreadsheet that also contains the playoff schedule.  You can read about it, and download the spreadsheet, from this post.

Here’s a copy of the 2021/22 NHL schedule and the results of each of the games played so far in Excel .xlsx format, and here’s another copy in CSV format.  Of course, the season hasn’t started yet, so the results are empty right now, but I’ll try to update them each morning through the regular season.

The Excel file consists of 2 worksheets: one contains the original NHL schedule as described in this post; the other, named As-Played Schedule, contains the same contents, with the addition of the scores for each team and whether the game hasn’t been played yet, was won in regulation time, overtime, or in a shootout.  Here’s a quick summary of the columns:

  • Date: the date of the game
  • Start Time (Sask): the game’s start time in Saskatchewan (where I live!)
  • Start Time (ET): the game’s start time in Eastern time (which is the time the NHL website shows)
  • Visitor: the name of the visiting team
  • Score: the visiting team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
  • Home: the name of the home team
  • Score: the home team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
  • Status: one of the following:
    • Scheduled: if the game hasn’t been played yet
    • Postponed: if the game has been postponed, but not yet rescheduled
    • Regulation: if the game ended in regulation time
    • OT: if the game ended in overtime
    • SO: if the game ended in a shootout

For example, here’s the first couple lines of the worksheet from last year’s file:

In this example, the game was played on January 13, 2021 at 4:30 PM in Saskatchewan and 5:30 PM Eastern time, the home team Philadelphia beat the visiting team Pittsburgh 6-3 in regulation time

Just a brief explanation why I’ve got two time fields in here.  Saskatchewan doesn’t observe Daylight Savings time, so for part of the schedule, we have a one-hour time difference from Eastern time, and for the rest of the schedule, we have a two-hour time difference.  Of course, I’m more interested in the time in Saskatchewan, but to make it easier for other people to use, I’ve also included Eastern time.

The CSV file contains only the As-Played worksheet.  It has the same fields as described for the Excel file.  You can easily import this file into Excel or whatever spreadsheet of your choice!

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 7

CFL logoAfter 7 weeks into the season, we’re finally confident that the uncertainty in our predictions due to the cancelled 2020 season has worked itself out, and we’ve got a good feeling about our ratings and predictions now.  This week’s games went pretty much as expected, and there wasn’t a lot of movement with our rankings or probabilities.

Once again, there were four games this week, but this time with two games on Friday and two on Saturday.  In Friday’s early game, Hamilton quarterback David Watford got the win in his first career start, with a 23-17 victory at home over Calgary.  The top scorer in the game, though, was Hamilton kicker Taylor Bertolet, who booted 5 field goals.

In the second game on Friday, Saskatchewan snapped their two game losing streak with a decisive 30-16 victory over the visiting Toronto Argonauts.  The Riders’ William Powell rushed for 122 yards, while quarterback Cody Fajardo passed for two touchdowns and ran in another for the victory.  Despite losing their previous two games, Saskatchewan is now 4-0 against teams that aren’t Winnipeg.

In the first game on Saturday, visiting British Columbia surprised Montreal 27-18.  Michael Reilly passed for 308 yards and two touchdowns for the Lions, while the BC defense set an all-time single-game record with 13 knockdowns.  I didn’t even know that was a statistic that was tracked.

And rounding out the week, top-ranked Winnipeg hammered the Elks in Edmonton 37-22.  Although they were down 16-15 in the third quarter, Winnipeg scored two defensive touchdowns, one on a pick-six on the Edmonton 20 yard line, and another on a fumble recovery on the Edmonton 3.  Winnipeg never looked back after that.

Week 7 Results

Calgary 17  at Hamilton 23
Toronto 16  at Saskatchewan 30
British Columbia 27  at Montreal 18
Winnipeg 37  at Edmonton 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings.  With their 6-1 record, they have increased their lead in the Power Ratings over second-ranked Saskatchewan.  Hamilton, in a tie for 1st in the East, is the top-ranked Eastern team.  With their road upset over Montreal, British Columbia’s rating has risen above the average 1500 rating, and moved them into 4th in the rankings.  Although Ottawa is the bottom ranked team, they closed the gap on teams 5 through 8 by not playing!  Sadly, that might be the best way for Ottawa to move up in the rankings.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1586 (▲11) 6-1, 1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1542 (▲9) 4-2, T-2nd West
3 Hamilton 1532 (▲10) 3-3, T-1st East
4 (▲2) British Columbia 1506 (▲14) 4-2, T-2nd West
5 (▼1) Calgary 1486 (▼10) 2-5, T-4th West
6 (▲1) Toronto 1482 (▼9) 3-3, T-1st East
7 (▼2) Montreal 1481 (▼14) 2-3, 3rd East
8 Edmonton 1473 (▼11) 2-4, T-4th West
9 Ottawa 1432 1-4, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, and we’re giving them a season-high 30% chance of winning it all.  In fact, we’ve calculated that they have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs!  Hamilton remains the Eastern team with the best chance of winning, with a 23% chance.  Ottawa, Edmonton, and Calgary all have extremely thin chances of winning, as we’re giving them a 3%, 3%, and 2% chance of winning.

Our numbers show that there is a 56% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, versus 44% for an Eastern team.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1586 30% (▲2)
2 Hamilton 1532 23% (▲5)
3 (▲2) Saskatchewan 1542 12% (▲1)
4 (▼1) Toronto 1482 10% (▼2)
5 (▲1) British Columbia 1506 9% (▲1)
6 (▼2) Montreal 1481 8% (▼4)
7 (▲2) Ottawa 1432 3% (▲1)
8 (▼1) Edmonton 1473 3% (▼2)
9 (▼1) Calgary 1486 2% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg

6-1
1st in West

 1586 >99% 93% 75% 89% 54% 30%
Hamilton

3-3
T-1st in East

 1532 90% 79% 51% 73% 43% 23%
Saskatchewan

4-2
T-2nd in West

 1542 89% 52% 9% 52% 23% 12%
Toronto

3-3
T-1st in East

 1482 80% 60% 28% 54% 25% 10%
British Columbia

4-2
T-2nd in West

 1506 88% 43% 14% 46% 19% 9%
Montreal

2-3
3rd in East

 1481 67% 43% 15% 41% 19% 8%
Ottawa

1-4
4th in East

 1432 31% 18% 6% 18% 7% 3%
Edmonton

2-4
T-4th in West

 1473 30% 6% 1% 14% 5% 3%
Calgary

2-5
T-4th in West

 1486 26% 5% <1% 12% 5% 2%

Week 8 Game Predictions

Hamilton (56%) at Ottawa (43%)
Montreal (43%) at Toronto (56%)
Saskatchewan (48%) at British Columbia (51%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 6

CFL logoA pretty lame write-up this week, but here you go!

Argos hold off Ticats to claim 1st place in East
Bombers defeat Riders for a second-straight Banjo Bowl title
Stamps put the clamps on Elks’ offence for 2nd win
Lions roar in dominant win over Redblacks

Week 6 Results

Hamilton 16  at Toronto 17
Saskatchewan 9  at Winnipeg 33
Calgary 32  at Edmonton 16
Ottawa 13  at British Columbia 45

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1575 (▲10) 5-1, 1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1533 (▼10) 3-2, T-2nd West
3 Hamilton 1522 (▼13) 2-3, T-2nd East
4 (▲3) Calgary 1496 (▲15) 2-4, T-4th West
5 Montreal 1495 2-2, T-2nd East
6 British Columbia 1492 (▲9) 3-2, T-2nd West
7 (▲1) Toronto 1491 (▲13) 3-2, 1st East
8 (▼4) Edmonton 1484 (▼15) 2-3, T-4th West
9 Ottawa 1432 (▼9) 1-4, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1575 28% (▲5)
2 Hamilton 1522 18% (▼4)
3 (▲2) Toronto 1491 12% (▲3)
4 Montreal 1495 12% (▲1)
5 (▼2) Saskatchewan 1533 11% (▼4)
6 (▲1) British Columbia 1492 8% (▲2)
7 Edmonton 1484 5% (▼3)
8 (▲1) Calgary 1496 4% (▲2)
9 Ottawa 1432 2% (▼1)

Our Full Predictions

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg

5-1
1st in West

 1575 98% 88% 70% 85% 51% 28%
Hamilton

2-3
T-2nd in East

 1522 80% 65% 34% 60% 33% 18%
Toronto

3-2
1st in East

 1491 83% 64% 35% 59% 29% 12%
Montreal

2-2
T-2nd in East

 1495 77% 56% 26% 52% 26% 12%
Saskatchewan

3-2
T-2nd in West

 1533 80% 48% 11% 48% 21% 11%
British Columbia

3-2
T-2nd in West

 1492 73% 35% 12% 39% 16% 8%
Edmonton

2-3
T-4th in West

 1484 44% 16% 5% 23% 6% 5%
Calgary

2-4
T-4th in West

 1496 38% 13% 2% 20% 8% 4%
Ottawa

1-4
4th in East

 1432 27% 15% 5% 14% 6% 2%

Week 7 Game Predictions

Calgary (39%) at Hamilton (60%)
Toronto (37%) at Saskatchewan (62%)
British Columbia (42%) at Montreal (57%)
Winnipeg (55%) at Edmonton (44%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 5

CFL logoThere were lots of surprises in last week’s games, as the visiting teams won 3 of the 4 Mark’s Labour Day Weekend games, whereas the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team were expecting a clean sweep by the hosts.  As a result, there was lots of movement in the Power Rankings and Ratings this week.

The first game of the weekend was Friday night in Ottawa, where Montreal thumped Ottawa 51-29 in the highest-scoring game of the season so far.  Vernon Adams Jr. threw for four touchdowns in the victory, and there were 33 points scored in the 4th quarter!

The next game of the weekend was on Sunday, as Winnipeg visited Saskatchewan for the most highly-anticipated game of the year, as Saskatchewan was ranked #1 and Winnipeg #2.  In the battle for top spot in the West, both teams managed to disappoint in a lacklustre showing, with the Blue Bombers coming out on top 23-8.  For a Labour Day Classic, the game was anything but classic, as the top scorer for the Riders was kicker Brett Lauther, with 2 field goals and a rouge.

There were two games on Labour Day, with Hamilton hosting their own version of a Labour Day Classic.  They didn’t treat the visiting Toronto Argonauts well, as they took a 25-4 lead into the fourth quarter and cruised to a 32-19 victory.

In the final game of the weekend, the first half of the Battle of Alberta took place in Calgary, with the visiting Edmonton Elks finishing with a strong fourth quarter to defeat the Stampeders 32-20.  The game was tied 17-17 after three quarters, but Edmonton scored the last 15 points of the game.  Trevor Harris was truly the star of the game, passing for 398 yards and four touchdowns in the victory.

Three of next week’s games feature rematches, as Saskatchewan and Winnipeg, Hamilton and Toronto, and Calgary and Edmonton swap stadiums to face each other again.  British Columbia returns from their bye week to face Ottawa in the other game.

Week 5 Results

Montreal 51  at Ottawa 29
Winnipeg 23  at Saskatchewan 8
Toronto 19  at Hamilton 32
Edmonton 32  at Calgary 20

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

With Winnipeg’s win over Saskatchewan, those two teams swap positions in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with Winnipeg now on top.  Saskatchewan does stay in 2nd place, although Hamilton edged closer, being ranked third despite their 2-2 record.  In fact, 5 teams are at 2-2 now!  With their loss to Edmonton, Calgary has dropped down in the rankings, and now are ranked 7th, a big surprise for a team that has been strong for a number of years now.  Their 1-4 record is worst in the CFL, although we’re still giving the lowest ranking in the league to Ottawa.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 (▲1) Winnipeg 1565 (▲14) 4-1, 1st West
2 (▼1) Saskatchewan 1543 (▼14) 3-1, 2nd West
3 Hamilton 1535 (▲10) 2-2, 1st West
4 (▲2) Edmonton 1499 (▲15) 2-2, T-3rd West
5 (▲3) Montreal 1495 (▲13) 2-2, T-1st East
6 (▲1) British Columbia 1483 2-2, T-3rd West
7 (▼3) Calgary 1481 (▼15) 1-4, 5th West
8 (▼3) Toronto 1478 (▼9) 2-2, T-1st East
9 Ottawa 1441 (▼13) 1-3, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

After defeating Saskatchewan, we now have calculated that Winnipeg has the best chance of winning the Grey Cup, at 23%.  Not far behind is Hamilton, who right now are the cream of the crop in the East.  Despite being ranked third in the CFL, Hamilton is the mostly likely team to advance out of the East, and as they are the host city this year, the hometown crowd gives them a decent chance of winning if they make it to the final.  Saskatchewan’s chances have dropped significantly in the last two weeks, from 23% to 15% currently.  We’re giving Calgary the least chance of winning, at just 2%, as they are currently sitting in last place in a strong Western division.

As far as East vs. West, we’re giving a Western team a 54% chance of winning the Grey Cup, versus last week’s 55%.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 (▲2) Winnipeg 1565 23% (▲5)
2 Hamilton 1535 22% (▲3)
3 (▼2) Saskatchewan 1543 15% (▼6)
4 (▲1) Montreal 1495 11% (▲3)
5 (▼1) Toronto 1478 9% (▼3)
6 (▲2) Edmonton 1499 8% (▲3)
7 (▼1) British Columbia 1483 6%
8 (▼1) Ottawa 1441 3% (▼3)
9 Calgary 1481 2% (▼3)

Our Full Predictions

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg

4-1
1st in West

 1565 95% 78% 54% 76% 44% 23%
Hamilton

2-2
T-1st in East

 1535 86% 75% 47% 70% 40% 22%
Saskatchewan

3-1
2nd in West

 1543 86% 59% 24% 58% 29% 15%
Montreal

2-2
T-1st in East

 1495 76% 57% 23% 51% 24% 11%
Toronto

2-2
T-1st in East

 1478 70% 48% 22% 45% 21% 9%
Edmonton

2-2
T-3rd in West

 1499 64% 29% 12% 36% 16% 8%
British Columbia

2-2
T-3rd in West

 1483 64% 27% 9% 32% 13% 6%
Ottawa

1-3
4th in East

 1441 36% 20% 7% 20% 9% 3%
Calgary

1-4
5th in West

 1481 23% 7% 1% 12% 5% 2%

Week 6 Game Predictions

Hamilton (50%) at Toronto (49%)
Saskatchewan (40%) at Winnipeg (59%)
Calgary (40%) at Edmonton (59%)
Ottawa (37%) at British Columbia (62%)

 

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 4

CFL logoThe big story in Week 4 was that the Edmonton – Toronto game was postponed due to a number of Elks players testing positive for COVID-19.  According to the CFL’s protocol, the league will attempt to reschedule the game; if it can’t be rescheduled, Toronto would be awarded a 1-0 win.  Luckily for the Elks, the league was able to reschedule the game into Week 16.  Unfortunately for the Elks, though, that means they’ve got 3 games in 7 days at the end of the season.

In Friday night’s game, Hamilton thumped Montreal 27-10.  It was Hamilton’s first win of the season, and was highlighted by kick returner Frankie Williams, who gained 184 yards on returns and also made an interception on defense.

In Saturday’s game, BC defeated Ottawa 24-12.  Quarterback Michael Reilly passed for 301 yards in a winning effort.

In Sunday’s final game of the week, Winnipeg won a squeaker over Calgary, 18-16.  Winnipeg kicker Marc Liegghio booted a 45 yard field goal with 37 seconds left to take the lead, and Calgary almost came back, but Rene Paredes’ last-second attempt from 52 yards fell short, giving Winnipeg the victory.  On the losing side, Calgary rookie quarterback Jake Maier completed his first 17 passes, including a perfect first half, and finished 30 for 39 and 307 yards.

As always, it’s a big set of Labour Day weekend games.  The biggest game, of course, comes Sunday as the top two teams in the league, Saskatchewan and Winnipeg, face off in the Labour Day Classic.  Another interesting game to watch will be Edmonton at Calgary on Monday, as both teams try to get their seasons on track.  The other two games are Montreal at Ottawa on Friday and Toronto at Hamilton on Monday.

Week 4 Results

Postponed: Edmonton at Toronto
Hamilton 27  at Montreal 10
British Columbia 24  at Ottawa 12
Calgary 16  at Winnipeg 18

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Not many changes in the rankings this week.  Saskatchewan retains the top spot, although with their bye week and Winnipeg’s win, Winnipeg has closed the gap.  The top spot in the rankings will be up for grabs in their Labour Day Classic game in Regina on Sunday.  The only change in the rankings was Montreal; with their big loss to Hamilton, they’ve dropped down to 8th in the rankings, pushing Toronto, Edmonton, and B.C. up one spot each.  However, there are only 5 rating points separating teams 5 through 8, so there’s really no clear better team in that group.

It’s interesting to note that only three teams have ratings above the baseline of 1500; are Saskatchewan and Winnipeg that much better than the rest of the league?  Possibly.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Saskatchewan 1557 3-0, 1st West
2 Winnipeg 1551 (▲10) 3-1, 2nd West
3 Hamilton 1525 (▲14) 1-2, T-2nd East
4 Calgary 1496 (▼9) 1-2, T-3rd West
5 (▲1) Toronto 1487 2-1, 1st East
6 (▲1) Edmonton 1484 1-2, 4th West
7 (▲1) British Columbia 1483 (▲14) 2-2, 3rd West
8 (▼3) Montreal 1482 (▼14) 1-2, T-2nd East
9 Ottawa 1454 (▼14) 1-2, T-2nd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Saskatchewan remains our favourite to win the Grey Cup, although their chances dropped slightly to 21%.  Hamilton is now the number-2 favourite, jumping 6 percentage points to a 19% chance of winning it all.  Winnipeg also closed the gap on Saskatchewan, and now have an 18% chance of winning.  Perhaps most surprising is Calgary, who are ranked 4th in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings, but with their 1-3 record in the strong West division, only have a 5% chance of winning the Grey Cup.  We’re still giving a 55% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 45% chance of an Eastern team, no change from the last two weeks.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Saskatchewan 1557 21% (▼2)
2 (▲1) Hamilton 1525 19% (▲6)
3 (▼1) Winnipeg 1551 18% (▲2)
4 (▲1) Toronto 1487 12% (▲1)
5 (▼1) Montreal 1482 8% (▼4)
6 (▲3) British Columbia 1483 6% (▲1)
7 (▼1) Ottawa 1454 6% (▼2)
8 Edmonton 1484 5% (▼1)
9 (▼2) Calgary 1496 5% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Saskatchewan

3-0
1st in West

 1557 92% 73% 46% 71% 39% 21%
Hamilton

1-2
T-2nd in East

 1525 78% 63% 36% 60% 34% 19%
Winnipeg

3-1
2nd in West

 1551 89% 65% 34% 64% 34% 18%
Toronto

2-1
1st in East

 1487 77% 60% 34% 55% 28% 12%
Montreal

1-2
T-2nd in East

 1482 60% 41% 16% 39% 18% 8%
British Columbia

2-2
3rd in West

 1483 65% 28% 9% 33% 13% 6%
Ottawa

1-2
T-2nd in East

 1454 53% 36% 14% 32% 14% 6%
Edmonton

1-2
4th in West

 1484 47% 19% 6% 25% 11% 5%
Calgary

1-3
5th in West

 1496 39% 14% 4% 21% 9% 5%

Week 4 Game Predictions

Montreal (47%) at Ottawa (52%)
Winnipeg (42%) at Saskatchewan (57%)
Toronto (38%) at Hamilton (61%)
Edmonton (41%) at Calgary (58%)

 

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 3

CFL logoTeams continue to gain their footing as Week 3 has completed in the CFL.  In the Thursday night game, Trevor Harris threw for 296 yards and James Wilder Jr. rushed for 127 yards as the Edmonton Elks spoiled the BC Lions home opener, winning 21-16.

On Friday night, Calgary defeated Montreal 28-22 at home for their first win of the season.  Jake Maier made his CFL debut as the starting quarterback for Calgary, replacing the injured Bo Levi Mitchell, and passed for 304 yards and a touchdown for his first career win.  Montreal almost came back to win it, but Calgary managed to stop them at the goal line as time ran out on the clock.

In the early game on Saturday, top-ranked Winnipeg travelled to Toronto for the first game to be held in the East this year.  Toronto surprised the Blue Bombers with a 30-23 win for the hometown team.  Nick Arbuckle, the Toronto quarterback, completed 23 of 32 passes for 310 yards to pick up the win for the Argos.

And in Saturday’s late game, Saskatchewan never trailed as they dominated Ottawa 23-10.  Cody Fajardo passed for 321 yards, but it was the Rider defense that starred.  Saskatchewan is now the only undefeated team in the CFL, and the win has moved them into the top spot in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings.

The big story next week is the Edmonton game in Toronto on Thursday night.  It’s been postponed due to a number of Elks players testing positive for COVID-19 (14 at press time).  As per the CFL’s COVID protocol, the game has been postponed, but a new date for the game has not been announced yet.  If the CFL can’t find a date to play the game, Toronto will be awarded a 1-0 win.  Our McDonald CFL Power Ratings team was giving Toronto a 57% chance of winning the game.

In Friday night’s game, Hamilton visits Montreal.  Although we’ve got Hamilton rated higher than Montreal, we’re giving Montreal a slight edge to win this game due to home field advantage, with a 54% chance of winning.  Hamilton is looking for their first win of the season, while if Montreal wins, they’ll move into a tie for first place in the East with Toronto.

Saturday’s early game has BC travelling to Ottawa.  These teams are ranked at the bottom of our Power Ratings, so they’re both looking for a critical victory to get their season on track.  We’re giving Ottawa the edge here, with a 56% chance of winning the game.

In the final game of the weekend on Saturday, Calgary travels to Winnipeg.  Winnipeg is looking to bounce back after their loss to Ottawa last week, while Calgary is looking for their second straight victory.  The McDonald CFL Power Rating boys are predicting a Winnipeg win, with a 61% chance of that happening.  With a win, Winnipeg can retake the top ranking over the idle Saskatchewan Roughriders.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

We’ve got a new top-ranked team this week.  With Saskatchewan’s win over Ottawa, and Winnipeg’s loss to Toronto, Saskatchewan has now taken over top spot in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with Winnipeg dropping to second.  Both teams are rated much stronger than the rest of the league.  Other moves up include Toronto, moving up from 8th to 6th, and Edmonton, from 9th to 7th, while drop downs include British Columbia (6th to 8th) and Ottawa (7th to 9th).  Ottawa is now our lowest ranked team.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 (▲1) Saskatchewan 1557 (▲8) 3-0, 1st West
2 (▼1) Winnipeg 1541 (▼13) 2-1, 2nd West
3 Hamilton 1511 0-2, 4th East
4 (▲1) Calgary 1505 (▲11) 1-2, T-3rd West
5 (▼1) Montreal 1496 (▼11) 1-1, T-2nd East
6 (▲2) Toronto 1487 (▲14) 2-1, 1st East
7 (▲2) Edmonton 1484 (▲15) 1-2, T-3rd West
8 (▼2) British Columbia 1469 (▼15) 1-2, T-3rd West
9 (▼2) Ottawa 1468 (▼8) 1-1, T-2nd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Saskatchewan is now our favourite to win the Grey Cup, at a whopping 23% chance.  The next closest team is Winnipeg, who we’re giving a 16% chance.  The top Eastern team is Hamilton with a 13% chance, followed closely by Montreal at 12% and Toronto at 11%.  We’re giving a 55% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 45% chance of an Eastern team, no change from last week.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Saskatchewan 1557 23% (▲4)
2 Winnipeg 1541 16% (▼4)
3 Hamilton 1511 13%
4 Montreal 1496 12% (▼2)
5 Toronto 1487 11% (▲3)
6 Ottawa 1468 8% (▼2)
7 Calgary 1505 7% (▲2)
8 Edmonton 1484 6% (▲2)
9 British Columbia 1469 5% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Saskatchewan

3-0
1st in West

 1557 92% 76% 50% 73% 41% 23%
Winnipeg

2-1
2nd in West

 1541 82% 58% 28% 57% 29% 16%
Hamilton

0-2
4th in East

 1511 63% 43% 20% 44% 23% 13%
Montreal

1-1
T-2nd in East

 1496 72% 53% 27% 50% 26% 12%
Toronto

2-1
1st in East

 1487 77% 58% 30% 53% 26% 11%
Ottawa

1-1
T-2nd in East

 1468 66% 46% 22% 43% 20% 8%
Calgary

1-2
T-3rd in West

 1505 51% 24% 9% 30% 14% 7%
Edmonton

1-2
T-3rd in West

 1484 48% 21% 7% 26% 11% 6%
British Columbia

1-2
T-3rd in West

 1469 49% 20% 6% 25% 10% 5%

Week 4 Game Predictions

Edmonton (42%) at Toronto (57%) — POSTPONED DUE TO COVID-19
Hamilton (45%) at Montreal (54%)
British Columbia (43%) at Ottawa (56%)
Calgary (38%) at Winnipeg (61%)

 

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 2

CFL logoIn Week 2, defense seemed to be the key in the CFL.  Opening the week on Thursday Night Football, British Columbia defeated host Calgary 15-9.  BC picked off Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell four times for the first time in his career.

Friday night’s game featured Toronto visiting top-ranked Winnipeg.  Both Winnipeg’s offense and defense both looked strong, as they took an early lead and never looked back, winning 20-7.

In Saturday’s early game, Montreal travelled to Edmonton to open their season.  A strong performance by them, and a weak performance by Edmonton, resulted in a 30-13 win for Montreal.

Saturday’s late game involved 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan playing host to 3rd-ranked Hamilton.  Despite being penalized 20 times for 187 yards, and being held rougeless, the Roughriders dominated and won 30-8.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg and Saskatchewan remain the top 2 teams this week, and despite being 0-2, Hamilton has retained 3rd place in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings.  British Columbia made a big move, jumping 3 spots after their win over Calgary.  Meanwhile, Edmonton dropped down to last place in the rankings after losing to Montreal.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1554 (▲9) 2-0, T-1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1549 (▲10) 2-0, T-1st West
3 Hamilton 1511 (▼10) 0-2, 4th East
4 (▲1) Montreal 1507 (▲14) 1-0, T-1st East
5 (▼1) Calgary 1494 (▼16) 0-2, T-4th West
6 (▲3) British Columbia 1484 (▲16) 1-1, 3rd West
7 (▲1) Ottawa 1476 1-0, T-1st East
8 Toronto 1473 (▼8) 1-1, 3rd East
9 (▼3) Edmonton 1469 (▼14) 0-2, T-4th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg, at 20%, and Saskatchewan, at 19%, are the most likely teams to win the Grey Cup.  The top Eastern team is Montreal with a 14% chance, followed closely by Hamilton at 13%.  We’re giving a 55% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 45% chance of an Eastern team.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1554 20% (▲2)
2 Saskatchewan 1539 19% (▲3)
3 (▲1) Montreal 1507 14% (▲3)
4 (▼1) Hamilton 1511 13% (▼3)
5 (▲1) Ottawa 1476 10%
6 (▼1) Toronto 1473 8% (▼2)
7 (▲2) British Columbia 1484 7% (▲2)
8 (▼1) Calgary 1494 5% (▼4)
9 (▼1) Edmonton 1469 4% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg

2-0
T-1st in West

 1554 90% 69% 41% 68% 37% 20%
Saskatchewan

2-0
T-1st in West

 1549 89% 68% 38% 65% 34% 19%
Montreal

1-0
T-1st in East

 1507 79% 61% 36% 58% 31% 14%
Hamilton

0-2
4th in East

 1511 64% 44% 19% 44% 23% 13%
Ottawa

1-0
T-1st in East

 1476 72% 52% 27% 48% 23% 10%
Toronto

1-1
3rd in East

 1473 64% 43% 18% 40% 19% 8%
British Columbia

1-1
3rd in West

 1484 66% 33% 12% 35% 14% 7%
Calgary

0-2
T-4th in West

 1494 41% 17% 6% 23% 10% 5%
Edmonton

0-2
T-4th in West

 1469 34% 13% 4% 18% 7% 4%

Week 3 Game Predictions

Edmonton (41%) at British Columbia (58%)
Montreal (45%) at Calgary (54%)
Winnipeg (53%) at Toronto (46%)
Ottawa (33%) at Saskatchewan (66%)