The NHL season is starting to wind down, and we’re starting to see teams clinching playoff spots, or be eliminated from playoff contention. Last week, Buffalo was the only team without a chance of making the playoffs, but now Columbus and New Jersey have also been added to that list. And, this week we’ve got the first three teams to clinch playoff spots: Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota, the teams currently ranked 1, 2, and 3 in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and they are all in the West Division!
Colorado had a layoff for part of the last two weeks after three players entered the COVID protocol, but they are back in action now. Since then, they’ve played twice, both times against St. Louis, and they split those games. As a result, they dropped 5 rating points from last week, but still have a sizable lead in the ratings, and are still the only team rated above 1600 points. They are in second place in the division, 4 points behind Vegas but with 2 games in hand. We’re giving them a 48% chance of winning the division, compared to Vegas’ 46% chance (and Minnesota’s 6%). Winning the division could be key to making it out of the division in the playoffs, as the top team plays the fourth team, and right now Arizona is in that last playoff spot but are ranked 18th in the league!
Vegas went 3-0-0 this week and stayed 2nd in our rankings, gaining 6 rating points. They currently have a 9 game winning streak! One of their wins this week was a shootout victory over 27th-ranked San Jose, and they had two regulation wins, one against San Jose and one against 31st-ranked Anaheim. A key game coming up this week is against Colorado on Wednesday night; that one should be quite interesting and may be key to whether Colorado can catch Vegas for first place in the division.
Minnesota had a big week, going 4-0-0, gaining 24 rating points to move into 3rd spot. They beat Arizona twice, and 24th-ranked Los Angeles and 27th-ranked San Jose once each. They don’t play either of the top two teams this week, instead having 3 games in a row against 18th-ranked St. Louis.
Carolina moved into the top 5, placing 4th after going 2-0-2 this week. They split a pair with Tampa Bay, with a regulation win and an overtime loss, then split another pair with Florida, again with a regulation win and an overtime loss.
Pittsburgh continued their climb, moving into the 5th spot in our rankings. They went 4-0-0, but three of their wins were against 29th-ranked New Jersey. Their other win was over 7th-ranked Boston. They have a tough week coming up, with another game against Boston, followed by two against 6th-ranked Washington.
The race for the playoffs looks pretty interesting in three of the divisions. In the East Division, we think things are pretty much wrapped up, with Pittsburgh, Washington, New York Islanders, and Boston all pretty much assured of a playoff spot, although we are giving the New York Rangers an 8% chance of squeaking in. In the other three divisions, though, although 3 spots are pretty much solidified, the battle for the last spot is interesting. In the Central Division, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay are pretty much assured a spot, but Nashville (57%) and Dallas (39%) are fighting for that last spot, and even Chicago (5%) has a bit of a chance. In the West, St. Louis (52%), Arizona (40%), and Los Angeles (7%) have a shot. And in the Northern Division, we think that Edmonton, Toronto, and Winnipeg all have spots wrapped up, with Montreal (65%), Vancouver (21%) and Calgary (15%) all having reasonable chances at the last spot.
I am concerned a bit about the accuracy of our ratings. With teams not playing against teams outside of their division, it is possible that Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota are just so much better than the other teams in their division that they have higher ratings than they normally would. And, we won’t really know until the semi-finals of the playoffs, as that will be the first time they play a team from outside their division. But, even then, anything can happen in the playoffs, as Tampa Bay found out a couple seasons ago, when they were by far the top-ranked team, but got swept in the first round of the playoffs by Columbus.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1609, ▼5)
Record: 31-10-4, 2nd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 100%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 41% (▼17)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▼3)
Last week: 1-1-0
- April 22: Won 4-2 @ St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
- April 24: Lost 5-3 @ St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
Next week:
- April 26: @ St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
- April 28: @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1583)
- April 30: vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
- May 1: vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
2. Vegas Golden Knights (1583, ▲6)
Record: 34-11-2, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 100%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 39% (▲12)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- April 19: Won in SO 3-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
- April 21: Won 5-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
- April 24: Won 5-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1405)
Next week:
- April 28: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1609)
- April 30: @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)
- May 1: @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)
3. Minnesota Wild ▲1 (1582, ▲24)
Record: 31-13-3, 3rd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 100%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)
Last week: 4-0-0
- April 19: Won 5-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)
- April 21: Won 4-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)
- April 23: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1449)
- April 24: Won 6-3 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
Next week:
- April 28: vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
- April 29: vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
- May 1: vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
4. Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1571, ▲17)
Record: 31-10-6, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-2
- April 19: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1542)
- April 20: Won 4-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1542)
- April 22: Won 4-2 @ Florida Panthers (12th, 1534)
- April 24: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Florida Panthers (12th, 1534)
Next week:
- April 26: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1508)
- April 27: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1508)
- April 29: vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1441)
- May 1: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (28th, 1427)
5. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲2 (1569, ▲19)
Record: 32-14-3, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- April 20: Won 7-6 vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1421)
- April 22: Won 5-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1421)
- April 24: Won 4-2 vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1421)
- April 25: Won 1-0 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1550)
Next week:
- April 27: vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1550)
- April 29: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1568)
- May 1: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1568)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1609 (▼5) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 1583 (▲6) 3 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 1582 (▲24) 4 Carolina Hurricanes (▲2) 1571 (▲17) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1569 (▲19) 6 Washington Capitals (▼3) 1568 (▲8) 7 Boston Bruins (▼2) 1550 (▼6) 8 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 1545 (▼5) 9 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 1543 (▲9) 10 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1542 (▼7) 11 New York Rangers (▼1) 1536 (▼5) 12 Florida Panthers (▲1) 1534 (▲2) 13 New York Islanders (▲1) 1526 (▼1) 14 Winnipeg Jets (▼3) 1520 (▼17) 15 Dallas Stars 1508 (▼6) 16 Nashville Predators 1500 (▲14) 17 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 1481 (▲1) 18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1479 (▼5) 18 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2) 1479 (▲5) 20 Calgary Flames (▲1) 1475 (▲5) 21 Montreal Canadiens (▼3) 1474 (▼9) 22 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1468 (▲5) 23 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1454 (▼14) 24 Los Angeles Kings 1449 (▼8) 25 Detroit Red Wings (▲2) 1441 (▲6) 26 Ottawa Senators (▲3) 1436 (▲12) 27 San Jose Sharks (▼2) 1434 (▼6) 28 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) 1427 (▼12) 29 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1421 (▼10) 30 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1418 (▼6) 31 Anaheim Ducks 1405 (▼11)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 75% (▲20) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 14% (▼12) 3 Florida Panthers 10% (▼8) 4 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 8 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼4) — 8 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) — 8 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4) —
East Division
1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 46% (▲22) 1 (tie) Washington Capitals 46% (▲6) 3 New York Islanders 5% (▼15) 4 Boston Bruins 3% (▼13) 5 (tie) New York Rangers <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres — 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils —
West Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 48% (▼17) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 46% (▲13) 3 Minnesota Wild 6% (▲4) 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲4) — 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes — 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings — 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks — 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues —
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 85% (▲26) 2 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 11% (▼7) 3 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 4% (▼19) 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2) — 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) —
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 4 Nashville Predators (▲1) 57% (▲19) 5 Dallas Stars (▼1) 39% (▼1) 6 Chicago Blackhawks 5% (▼17) 7 Detroit Red Wings <1% 8 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) —
East Division
1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) >99% (▲3) 1 (tie) Washington Capitals >99% (▲2) 3 New York Islanders 98% (▲4) 4 Boston Bruins 94% (▲3) 5 New York Rangers 8% (▼12) 6 Philadelphia Flyers <1% 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) — 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1) —
West Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche ✔ 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild ✔ 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights ✔ 4 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 52% (▲14) 5 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 40% (▼7) 6 Los Angeles Kings 7% (▼5) 7 San Jose Sharks 1% (▼2) 8 Anaheim Ducks <1%
North Division
1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2) >99% (▲1) 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets >99% 4 Montreal Canadiens 65% (▼12) 5 Vancouver Canucks 21% (▲8) 6 Calgary Flames 15% (▲5) 7 Ottawa Senators <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 41% (▼17) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 39% (▲12) 3 Carolina Hurricanes 15% (▲5) 4 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 4% (▲3) 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1% (▼1) 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3) 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 17% (▼3) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 11% (▲1) 3 Carolina Hurricanes 10% (▲2) 4 Minnesota Wild (▲2) 9% (▲3) 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 8% (▲2) 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 8% (▲1) 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 6% 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 6% (▲1) 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3) 5% (▼1) 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼5) 5% (▼2) 11 Florida Panthers (▼1) 4% (▼1) 12 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) 3% 12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2) 3% (▼2) 14 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 1% 14 (tie) Nashville Predators 1% 14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5) 1% (▲1) 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4) <1% (▼1) 18 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼4) <1% (▼1) 18 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1% 29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) — 29 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼10) — 29 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼10) —