For the first time this season, Tampa Bay or Boston are not at the top of our rankings. That honour goes to Washington, who went 3-0-0 last week and have won 9 of their last 10 games. Tampa Bay dropped to 2nd, after a four week run at the top, going 1-2-0 this week and a middling 6-4-0 in their last 10. Rounding out the top 5 are Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota, all West Division teams! On the bottom end, Buffalo extended their winless streak to 17 games, and of course are at the bottom of our rankings, now 34 rating points behind second-worst Anaheim.
Washington has had quite the run lately. Back on February 14, they were ranked 13th and were in 4th place in the East Division. Since then, they have gone 17-3-1 and now have a 59% chance of winning their division, the best chance of any team in the league. They are also tied with Tampa Bay for favourites to win the Stanley Cup, both at 12%. This week, they beat 23rd-ranked New Jersey twice and the 15th ranked Rangers once. They’ve got four games coming up next week, starting the week facing the Rangers again, followed by the 6th-ranked Islanders, and then two more against New Jersey.
Tampa Bay went 1-2-0 last week, beating 20th-ranked Dallas, but then losing to them 2 days later, and finishing off the week with a loss to 6th-ranked Carolina. They have an easy week coming up, playing two games against 26th-ranked Columbus, and then two games in two nights against 29th-ranked Detroit. They’ll need to make the most of those games to regain the ratings lead, and to remain in top spot in the Central Division, as Carolina only trails them by 1 point (with one game in hand!) and Florida two points behind. We do give them a >99% chance of making the playoffs, though.
Colorado went 2-0-2 this week. Even though they gained 11 rating points, they still dropped down from 2nd to 3rd in our rankings. They beat Arizona 5-1, then the next night lost to them 5-4 in a shootout. Then they split a pair with Vegas, winning 5-1 but losing two days later in overtime 3-2. Vegas went 2-1-0, winning their only non-Colorado game against St. Louis, 5-1. Minnesota took a big jump in the ratings, gaining 14 rating points and jumping 4 spots in the rankings, going 3-0-0 this week, with two wins over Anaheim and one win against St. Louis.
The biggest mover this week was Nashville, going 4-0-0 with two wins against Detroit and two wins against Chicago. Not the best teams in the league (29th and 24th, respectively), but they are teams that Nashville needs to beat to make the playoffs. They gained 27 ratings points, and saw their chances of making the playoffs improve from 15% to 45%. They are now sitting in 4th in the Central Division, with the same number of points and games played as Chicago, but they currently hold the last playoff spot by virtue of having more regulation wins.
On the downside, St. Louis dropped 24 rating points and Columbus lost 22. St. Louis went 0-3-1, with their only point coming in a 3-2 overtime loss to 30th-ranked Anaheim. Columbus also went 0-3-1, but they did pick up a point in a 4-3 overtime loss to 6th-ranked Carolina.
In other news, Montreal did not play at all this week, having their games postponed because of two players entering COVID protocols. We’ll see how they do after their layoff this week, playing at home against Edmonton, then having a home-and-home series with Ottawa. It’ll be interesting to see if their acquisition of Eric Staal helps, although we won’t know for a week as he’s in a 7-day COVID quarantine after entering Canada on Saturday.
One last bit of news: because of schedule changes due to the Montreal game postponements, the last day of the season is now May 11th. The original schedule called for the season to finish on May 8th.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Washington Capitals ▲2 (1578, ▲15)
Record: 23-7-4, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲4)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲8)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- March 25: Won 4-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)
- March 26: Won 4-0 vs. New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)
- March 28: Won 5-4 vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1505)
Next week:
- March 30: @ New York Rangers (15th, 1505)
- April 1: @ New York Islanders (6th, 1547)
- April 2: @ New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)
- April 4: @ New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)
2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1577, ▼11)
Record: 24-8-2, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 28% (▼20)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▼2)
Last week: 1-2-0
- March 23: Won 2-1 @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1481)
- March 25: Lost 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1481)
- March 27: Lost 4-3 @ Carolina Hurricanes (6th, 1547)
Next week:
- March 30: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1460)
- April 1: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1460)
- April 3: vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1424)
- April 4: vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1424)
3. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1576, ▲11)
Record: 21-8-4, 2nd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-2
- March 22: Won 5-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1496)
- March 23: Lost in SO 5-4 @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1496)
- March 25: Won 5-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)
- March 27: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)
Next week:
- March 29: vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1416)
- March 31: vs. Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1496)
- April 2: vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)
- April 3: vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)
4. Vegas Golden Knights (1559, ▲1)
Record: 23-8-1, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 22: Won 5-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)
- March 25: Lost 5-1 @ Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1576)
- March 27: Won in OT 3-2 @ Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1576)
Next week:
- March 29: vs. Los Angeles Kings (22nd, 1480)
- March 31: vs. Los Angeles Kings (22nd, 1480)
- April 1: vs. Minnesota Wild (5th, 1550)
- April 3: vs. Minnesota Wild (5th, 1550)
5. Minnesota Wild ▲4 (1550, ▲14)
Record: 21-10-1, 3rd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 97% (▲10)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- March 22: Won 2-1 vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1416)
- March 24: Won 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1416)
- March 25: Won 2-0 vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)
Next week:
- March 29: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1454)
- March 31: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1454)
- April 1: @ Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)
- April 3: @ Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)
Overall Ratings
1 Washington Capitals (▲2) 1578 (▲15) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1577 (▼11) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 1576 (▲11) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 1559 (▲1) 5 Minnesota Wild (▲4) 1550 (▲14) 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲4) 1547 (▲14) 6 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) 1547 (▼6) 8 Boston Bruins (▼2) 1543 (▼7) 9 Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 1541 10 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1534 (▲15) 11 Florida Panthers (▼3) 1529 (▼8) 12 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 1522 (▼1) 13 Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 1519 (▲16) 14 Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 1507 15 New York Rangers (▲1) 1505 (▲1) 16 Philadelphia Flyers (▼3) 1504 (▼10) 17 Arizona Coyotes (▲3) 1496 (▲6) 18 Nashville Predators (▲6) 1495 (▲27) 19 St. Louis Blues (▼5) 1488 (▼24) 20 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2) 1481 (▼16) 20 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 1481 (▼5) 22 Los Angeles Kings (▼3) 1480 (▼14) 23 New Jersey Devils (▲2) 1474 (▲9) 24 Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) 1464 25 Vancouver Canucks (▼2) 1462 (▼15) 26 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 1460 (▼22) 27 San Jose Sharks 1454 (▲3) 28 Ottawa Senators (▲2) 1428 (▲18) 29 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 1424 (▲5) 30 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 1416 (▲4) 31 Buffalo Sabres 1382 (▼17)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 54% (▼17) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 35% (▲20) 3 Florida Panthers 11% (▼3) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1%
East Division
1 Washington Capitals 59% (▲17) 2 New York Islanders 22% (▼6) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 10% (▲3) 4 Boston Bruins (▼1) 9% (▼10) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% (▼2)
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 50% (▼4) 2 Colorado Avalanche 33% (▲3) 3 Minnesota Wild 17% (▲5) 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) <1% 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) <1% 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) <1% (▼1) 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2) <1% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% (▼3)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 45% (▲5) 2 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 25% (▲7) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 19% (▼7) 4 Montreal Canadiens 11% (▼3) 5 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% (▼2) 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1%
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) >99% (▲2) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 3 Florida Panthers (▼1) 99% (▲1) 4 Nashville Predators (▲3) 45% (▲30) 5 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 29% (▼4) 6 Dallas Stars (▼1) 20% (▼8) 7 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 7% (▼20) 8 Detroit Red Wings <1% (▼1)
East Division
1 Washington Capitals 99% (▲4) 2 New York Islanders 95% (▲4) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 90% (▲17) 4 Boston Bruins (▼1) 83% (▼1) 5 Philadelphia Flyers 21% (▼19) 6 New York Rangers 10% (▼4) 7 New Jersey Devils 2% (▼1) 8 Buffalo Sabres <1%
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights >99% (▲2) 2 Colorado Avalanche 99% (▲3) 3 Minnesota Wild 97% (▲10) 4 Arizona Coyotes (▲2) 36% (▲19) 5 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 32% (▼28) 6 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 30% (▼7) 7 San Jose Sharks 6% (▲1) 8 Anaheim Ducks <1%
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 98% (▲5) 2 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 97% (▲14) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 94% (▲4) 4 Montreal Canadiens 83% (▲7) 5 Calgary Flames 20% (▼19) 6 Vancouver Canucks 7% (▼11) 7 Ottawa Senators 1% (▲1)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 28% (▼20) 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 17% (▲10) 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 17% (▲2) 4 Washington Capitals (▼1) 15% (▲8) 5 Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 9% (▲2) 6 Minnesota Wild (▲2) 4% (▲2) 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1) 3% (▼3) 7 (tie) New York Islanders 3% 9 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 2% (▲1) 10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 1% (▼1) 10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 12% (▼2) 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) 12% (▲3) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 11% (▲2) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 8% 5 Carolina Hurricanes (▲4) 7% (▲2) 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 6% 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 6% (▲1) 6 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) 6% (▼1) 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3) 5% (▼1) 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3) 5% (▼1) 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 5% 12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 4% (▲1) 12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 4% (▲1) 14 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 3% 15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) 1% 15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) 1% 15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2) 1% 15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 1% 15 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) 1% 15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲10) 1% (▲1) 15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 1% (▼1) 15 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3) 1% (▼2) 23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼6) <1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼6) <1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼6) <1% (▼1)