After a bad week last week, Tampa Bay turned things around and moved back to the top of our ratings. After going 0-2-0 and dropping down to fourth in the rankings last week, they won all 4 of their games this week and jumped 25 rating points. Meanwhile, Boston, last week’s number one, went 1-2-0 and dropped down to fifth in the rankings, although they are just 3 rating points out of 2nd. Colorado and Toronto both remained tied for second in the rankings, both having middling weeks. Colorado went 2-2-0, and Toronto were 2-1-0, with one of their wins being in overtime. Philadelphia had a good week, moving back into the top 5 with a 3-0-0 record, although their wins came against the Rangers (ranked 23rd) and two against the Sabres (29th).
Tampa Bay are the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, grabbing the prize in 12% of our simulations. Toronto, last week’s favourite, have now dropped to 2nd favourite, winning in 9% of the simulations. Toronto is the most likely to make the playoffs (98%), with Tampa Bay close behind at 97%. Currently, they are the only two teams to have a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs, but I’m sure that will change as the season moves along.
Big movers in the ratings this week include Tampa Bay (+25 points), Minnesota (+22), and Washington (+20). Minnesota went 4-0-0, with one of their wins in OT. The big win for them was a 6-2 road victory over 2nd ranked Colorado. They saw their chances of making the playoffs take a big jump, up to 77% (last week it was 51%). Washington went 3-0-1, but their games were against 19th-ranked Pittsburgh and 25th ranked New Jersey. They’ll have a big test this week, facing the Bruins twice and the Flyers once.
On the downside, Columbus and New Jersey both dropped 24 points, and Carolina lost 19 points. Columbus went 0-3-1, and saw their playoff chances drop from 40% to 16%. New Jersey went 1-3-0, with their only win coming in overtime against 29th ranked Buffalo, although two of their losses were to 7th ranked Washington. Carolina, ranked number 5 last week, went 1-3-0, although their three losses were to top-ranked Tampa Bay. Our simulations show that they have a 4% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, down from 13% last week!
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲3 (1582, ▲25)
Record: 14-4-1, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 97% (▲10)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 28% (▲17)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲4)
Last week: 4-0-0
- February 22: Won 4-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
- February 24: Won 3-0 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
- February 25: Won 3-1 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
- February 27: Won 5-0 vs. Dallas Stars (16th, 1497)
Next week:
- March 2: @ Dallas Stars (16th, 1497)
- March 4: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)
- March 5: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)
- March 7: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)
2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche (1556, ▼4)
Record: 11-6-1, 4th in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 86% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)
Last week: 2-2-0
- February 22: Lost 3-0 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1545)
- February 24: Lost 6-2 vs. Minnesota Wild (11th, 1520)
- February 26: Won 3-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (21th, 1481)
- February 27: Won 6-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (21th, 1481)
Next week:
- March 1: @ San Jose Sharks (26th, 1454)
- March 3: @ San Jose Sharks (26th, 1454)
- March 5: vs. Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1453)
- March 6: vs. Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1453)
2 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs (1556, ▼4)
Record: 16-4-2, 1st in North Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- February 22: Lost 3-0 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
- February 24: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
- February 27: Won 4-0 @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)
Next week:
- March 1: @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)
- March 3: @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)
- March 4: @ Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1453)
- March 6: @ Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1453)
4. Philadelphia Flyers ▲2 (1555, ▲18)
Record: 11-4-3, 4th in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 85% (▲14)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 24: Won 4-3 vs. New York Rangers (23th, 1478)
- February 27: Won 3-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1444)
- February 28: Won 3-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1444)
Next week:
- March 2: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
- March 4: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
- March 6: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
- March 7: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)
5. Boston Bruins ▼4 (1553, ▼8)
Record: 12-5-2, 2nd in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 87% (▼4)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▼7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)
Last week: 1-2-0
- February 25: Lost 7-2 @ New York Islanders (8th, 1534)
- February 26: Lost 6-2 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1478)
- February 28: Won 4-1 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1478)
Next week:
- March 3: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)
- March 5: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)
- March 7: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1475)
Overall Ratings
1 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3) 1582 (▲25) 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 1556 (▼4) 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 1556 (▼4) 4 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 1555 (▲18) 5 Boston Bruins (▼4) 1553 (▼8) 6 Vegas Golden Knights 1545 (▲8) 7 Washington Capitals (▲3) 1539 (▲20) 8 New York Islanders (▲3) 1534 (▲17) 9 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 1532 (▲6) 10 Florida Panthers (▼1) 1523 (▲2) 11 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼6) 1520 (▼19) 11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7) 1520 (▲22) 13 Winnipeg Jets 1516 (▲5) 14 St. Louis Blues (▼3) 1507 (▼10) 15 Los Angeles Kings (▲6) 1500 (▲13) 16 Dallas Stars (▼2) 1497 (▼8) 17 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 1495 (▼6) 18 Calgary Flames (▲5) 1492 (▲11) 19 Pittsburgh Penguins 1488 (▼9) 20 Chicago Blackhawks (▲3) 1486 (▲5) 21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1481 (▼10) 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼7) 1481 (▼24) 23 New York Rangers (▼1) 1478 (▼5) 24 Nashville Predators (▲3) 1477 (▲13) 25 New Jersey Devils (▼8) 1475 (▼24) 26 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1454 (▼15) 27 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1453 (▼3) 27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1453 (▼14) 29 Buffalo Sabres 1444 (▼8) 30 Ottawa Senators 1413 (▲2) 31 Detroit Red Wings 1409 (▲6)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 61% (▲30) 2 Florida Panthers (▲1) 18% (▼3) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▼2) 14% (▼21) 4 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 4% (▲1) 5 Dallas Stars (▼1) 2% (▼4) 6 Nashville Predators (▲1) 1% (▲1) 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) <1% (▼3) 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1%
East Division
1 Boston Bruins 32% (▼18) 2 Philadelphia Flyers 30% (▲13) 3 Washington Capitals 19% (▲9) 4 New York Islanders 13% (▲5) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins 4% (▼2) 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 1% (▼1) 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils 1% (▼4) 8 Buffalo Sabres <1% (▼1)
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 38% (▲9) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 29% (▼10) 3 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 20% (▲12) 4 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 6% (▼7) 5 Los Angeles Kings 5% (▲1) 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes 1% (▼2) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% (▼2) 8 Anaheim Ducks <1% (▼1)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 62% (▼1) 2 Winnipeg Jets 18% (▲5) 3 Edmonton Oilers 13% (▲1) 4 Montreal Canadiens 5% (▼4) 5 Calgary Flames 2% 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 97% (▲10) 2 Florida Panthers (▲1) 86% (▲7) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▼2) 83% (▼6) 4 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 55% (▲14) 5 Dallas Stars (▼1) 39% (▼10) 6 Nashville Predators (▲1) 23% (▲10) 7 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 16% (▼24) 8 Detroit Red Wings 1%
East Division
1 Boston Bruins 87% (▼4) 2 Philadelphia Flyers 85% (▲14) 3 Washington Capitals 77% (▲18) 4 New York Islanders 71% (▲16) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins 43% (▼5) 6 New Jersey Devils 19% (▼23) 7 New York Rangers 14% (▼8) 8 Buffalo Sabres 5% (▼7)
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 88% (▲7) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 86% (▼1) 3 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 77% (▲26) 4 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 51% (▼14) 5 Los Angeles Kings 50% (▲10) 6 Arizona Coyotes 24% (▼10) 7 San Jose Sharks 15% (▼14) 8 Anaheim Ducks 8% (▼4)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 98% 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 87% (▲4) 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 87% (▲6) 4 Montreal Canadiens 67% (▼8) 5 Calgary Flames 50% (▲8) 6 Vancouver Canucks 7% (▼11) 7 Ottawa Senators 3%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3) 28% (▲17) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 21% (▼2) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▲4) 8% (▲3) 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 7% (▼7) 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4) 7% (▲4) 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 5% (▼4) 6 (tie) Florida Panthers 5% (▼2) 8 Carolina Hurricanes (▼5) 4% (▼9) 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 3% (▲2) 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3) 3% (▲2) 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3) 2% 12 (tie) New York Islanders 2% (▲1) 14 Montreal Canadiens (▼5) 1% (▼1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3) 12% (▲4) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 9% (▼1) 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 7% (▼2) 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 7% (▼2) 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4) 7% (▲2) 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 7% (▲1) 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 5% 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 5% (▲1) 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) 5% (▲1) 10 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼5) 4% (▼2) 10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6) 4% (▲2) 10 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3) 4% (▲1) 10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 4% 14 St. Louis Blues (▼5) 3% (▼1) 15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲7) 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲7) 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 2% 15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 2% (▼1) 20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4) 1% (▼1) 20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 1% (▼1) 20 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) 1% 20 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 1% 20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼4) 1% (▼1) 20 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4) 1% (▼1) 26 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) <1% 26 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) <1% 26 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) <1% 26 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2) <1% 26 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼4) <1% (▼1) 26 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4) <1% (▼1)