The more things change, the more they stay the same. We’ve just passed the halfway mark of the season, and there was lots of movement in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week, but the top 5 remain the same. Tampa Bay remains at the top of the rankings, little changed from last week, but Buffalo has taken over the bottom spot, becoming the first team to drop below the 1400 rating mark. In fact, in our simulations, the Sabres are the only team not to win the Stanley Cup once in 100,000 simulations!
Looking at the top 5, Tampa Bay had a busy week, playing 5 times! They went 4-1-0, with one of their wins coming in a shootout against Dallas. Despite the good week, they only gained 4 rating points, as the only top 10 team they played was Florida. They remain the team with the best chance of making the playoffs (>99%), are the favourites to win the President’s Trophy (48% vs. second favourite Vegas at 15%), and the favourites to win the Stanley Cup. But, at 14%, that’s definitely not a shoe-in; it’s less than the chances of rolling a die and getting a 6!
Colorado had a good week, moving up 17 rating points to 2nd in the rankings. They had a perfect 3-0-0 record, with convincing wins over Anaheim (8-4) and Minnesota (5-1 and 6-0). Although they are in 2nd place in the West Division, three points behind Vegas, we do think they are the stronger team right now.
Washington remained in the 3rd spot, picking up 7 rating points. They went 3-1 this week, beating the Sabres, Islanders, and Rangers, but finishing the week with a loss to the Rangers. They have moved into a tie with Colorado as 2nd-favourite team to win the Stanley Cup, at 9%.
Vegas stayed 4th in the rankings. They gained 9 rating points, going 3-1, with two wins against San Jose and a split with Los Angeles.
The Islanders had the worst week of the top 5, going 1-2-0 and losing 10 rating points and dropped down from 2nd to 5th in the rankings. They lost to Washington and Philadelphia, but then finished the week with a strong 6-1 win over the Flyers.
The biggest movers this week were Colorado and Nashville, both gaining 17 rating points. Nashville had a tough schedule, but started the week beating top-ranked Tampa Bay, splitting a pair with 8th-ranked Florida, and finishing with a shootout win over 21st-ranked Dallas.
The biggest downward movers last week included Winnipeg (down 22 points), San Jose (down 17 points), and Buffalo (down 16 points). Despite still having a chance at the playoffs, our simulations just can’t find any path for Buffalo to win the Stanley Cup.
One interesting game last week was on March 17th between the Flyers and Rangers. Two days before, Philadelphia won 5-4 in overtime, but the Rangers came storming back to take the next game 9-0! Those teams play twice next week, so we’ll see how those games turn out.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1588, ▲4)
Record: 23-6-2, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 48% (▲13)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▲1)
Last week: 4-1-0
- March 15: Lost 4-1 vs. Nashville Predators (24th, 1468)
- March 16: Won in SO 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (21st, 1486)
- March 18: Won 4-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1464)
- March 20: Won 4-1 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1464)
- March 21: Won 5-3 vs. Florida Panthers (8th, 1537)
Next week:
- March 23: @ Dallas Stars (21st, 1486)
- March 25: @ Dallas Stars (21st, 1486)
- March 27: @ Carolina Hurricanes (10th, 1533)
2. Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1565, ▲17)
Record: 19-8-2, 2nd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 96% (▲8)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- March 16: Won 8-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (29th, 1412)
- March 18: Won 5-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1536)
- March 20: Won 6-0 vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1536)
Next week:
- March 22: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1490)
- March 23: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1490)
- March 25: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1558)
- March 27: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1558)
3. Washington Capitals (1563, ▲7)
Record: 20-7-4, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 95% (▲4)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)
Last week: 3-1-0
- March 15: Won 6-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (31st, 1399)
- March 16: Won 3-1 vs. New York Islanders (5th, 1553)
- March 19: Won 2-1 vs. New York Rangers (16th, 1504)
- March 20: Lost 3-1 vs. New York Rangers (16th, 1504)
Next week:
- March 25: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
- March 26: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
- March 28: vs. New York Rangers (16th, 1504)
4. Vegas Golden Knights (1558, ▲9)
Record: 21-7-1, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 3-1-0
- March 15: Won 2-1 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
- March 17: Won 5-4 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
- March 19: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1494)
- March 21: Lost 3-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1494)
Next week:
- March 22: vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1512)
- March 25: @ Colorado Avalanche (2nd, 1565)
- March 27: @ Colorado Avalanche (2nd, 1565)
5. New York Islanders ▼3 (1553, ▼10)
Record: 20-8-4, 2nd in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 91% (▼3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▼5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)
Last week: 1-2-0
- March 16: Lost 3-1 @ Washington Capitals (3rd, 1563)
- March 18: Lost 4-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (13th, 1514)
- March 20: Won 6-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (13th, 1514)
Next week:
- March 22: @ Philadelphia Flyers (13th, 1514)
- March 23: @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1550)
- March 25: @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1550)
- March 27: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1519)
Overall Ratings
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 1588 (▲4) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲3) 1565 (▲17) 3 Washington Capitals 1563 (▲7) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 1558 (▲9) 5 New York Islanders (▼3) 1553 (▼10) 6 Boston Bruins (▲1) 1550 (▲6) 7 Edmonton Oilers (▲3) 1541 (▲13) 8 Florida Panthers 1537 (▼6) 9 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 1536 (▼7) 10 Carolina Hurricanes (▼4) 1533 (▼14) 11 Toronto Maple Leafs 1523 (▼3) 12 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 1519 (▼4) 13 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 1514 (▼4) 14 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1512 15 Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 1507 (▲7) 16 New York Rangers (▲2) 1504 (▲12) 17 Winnipeg Jets (▼5) 1503 (▼22) 18 Calgary Flames (▼1) 1497 (▲2) 19 Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 1494 (▲8) 20 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1490 21 Dallas Stars (▼1) 1486 (▼1) 22 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1482 (▲4) 23 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1477 (▲2) 24 Nashville Predators (▲3) 1468 (▲17) 25 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1465 (▲9) 26 Chicago Blackhawks (▼4) 1464 (▼15) 27 San Jose Sharks (▼2) 1451 (▼17) 28 Detroit Red Wings (▲3) 1419 (▲11) 29 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 1412 (▼10) 30 Ottawa Senators 1410 (▲1) 31 Buffalo Sabres (▼2) 1399 (▼16)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 71% (▲19) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 15% (▼13) 3 Florida Panthers 14% (▼5) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1%
East Division
1 Washington Capitals (▲1) 42% (▲12) 2 New York Islanders (▼1) 28% (▼13) 3 Boston Bruins 19% (▲5) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 7% (▼4) 5 Philadelphia Flyers 2% (▼1) 6 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 6 (tie) New York Rangers <1% 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1%
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 54% (▲6) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 30% (▲10) 3 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 12% (▼13) 4 St. Louis Blues 3% (▼1) 5 Los Angeles Kings 1% 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1) <1% (▼1)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 40% (▲2) 2 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 26% (▲12) 3 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 18% (▼19) 4 Montreal Canadiens 14% (▲6) 5 Calgary Flames 2% (▼1) 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 98% (▼1) 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) 98% 4 Chicago Blackhawks 33% (▼21) 5 Dallas Stars 28% (▼2) 6 Columbus Blue Jackets 27% (▲13) 7 Nashville Predators 15% (▲9) 8 Detroit Red Wings 1%
East Division
1 Washington Capitals (▲1) 95% (▲4) 2 New York Islanders (▼1) 91% (▼3) 3 Boston Bruins 84% (▲5) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 73% (▼5) 5 Philadelphia Flyers 40% (▼4) 6 New York Rangers 14% (▲2) 7 New Jersey Devils 3% (▲1) 8 Buffalo Sabres <1%
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 98% (▲2) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 96% (▲8) 3 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 87% (▼3) 4 St. Louis Blues 60% (▲4) 5 Los Angeles Kings 37% (▲7) 6 Arizona Coyotes 17% (▼3) 7 San Jose Sharks 5% (▼14) 8 Anaheim Ducks <1% (▼1)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 93% (▼2) 2 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 90% (▲6) 3 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 83% (▼11) 4 Montreal Canadiens 76% (▲7) 5 Calgary Flames 39% (▼7) 6 Vancouver Canucks 18% (▲6) 7 Ottawa Senators <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 48% (▲13) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 15% (▲4) 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 7% (▼10) 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲5) 7% (▲5) 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3) 7% (▲2) 6 Florida Panthers (▼2) 6% (▼4) 7 New York Islanders (▼2) 3% (▼5) 8 (tie) Boston Bruins 2% 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 2% (▼1) 10 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 1% (▼1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 14% (▲1) 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲4) 9% (▲3) 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) 9% (▲2) 4 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 8% (▲1) 5 New York Islanders (▼3) 7% (▼2) 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3) 6% (▲1) 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3) 6% (▲1) 6 (tie) Florida Panthers 6% 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼6) 5% (▼2) 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3) 5% (▼1) 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 5% 12 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3) 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 3% 12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) 3% 12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3) 3% (▼2) 16 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 2% 17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2) 1% (▼1) 17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲7) 1% (▲1) 17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲7) 1% (▲1) 25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1) <1% 25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1) <1% 25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1) <1% 25 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) <1% 25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1) <1% 25 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1) <1% 25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼7) <1% (▼1)