It was another interesting week in the NHL, although there haven’t been many changes to the McDonald NHL Power Rankings. Tampa Bay remains the top team, even though they are 2nd in the Central Division. Carolina, 1st in that division, are 6th in our rankings. Boston has dropped out of the top 5, moving down to 7th, while Washington has moved back in, showing up in the 3rd spot.
It looked to be an easy week for Tampa Bay, with two games against bottom-ranked Detroit and one against Nashville, but it didn’t go so well for them. They did beat Nashville, but they lost once to Detroit and won the other game in overtime. They saw their rating drop 9 points, but they are still the top-ranked team, the favourite to win their division (52% vs. Carolina’s 28%), the President’s Trophy (35% vs. Carolina’s 17%), and the most-likely team to make the playoffs (>99% chance!).
The Islanders moved into 2nd spot in our rankings, going 4-0-0 this week. They beat New Jersey twice in regulation time and once in a shootout, and also beat Boston in a shootout. Washington moved into 3rd, going 3-0-0, with two regulation wins over Philadelphia and an overtime win against New Jersey. Vegas dropped down two spots to 4th, losing twice to Minnesota but beating St. Louis twice, once in overtime. Rounding out the top 5 is Colorado, who beat Los Angeles twice but split a pair with Arizona, with their win coming in overtime.
The biggest mover this week was Minnesota, who gained 27 rating points and moved up 5 spots in our rankings to 8th with a perfect 4-0-0 record this week, with two wins against Vegas and two against Arizona. On the downside, Toronto dropped 28 points, losing to 30th-ranked Ottawa and twice to Winnipeg, although they did manage an OT win in Winnipeg. In fact, Toronto is no longer the top-rated Canadian team, with Edmonton moving into that spot after a 3-1-0 week, beating Ottawa 3 times but losing to Vancouver. Winnipeg is close behind, just one rating point back of Toronto, after going 2-0-1 in their three games against the Leafs. Toronto is still the favourite to win the Northern Division, just barely ahead of the Jets with a 38% chance vs. 37% chance for Winnipeg.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1584, ▼9)
Record: 19-5-2, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 35% (▼6)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 9: Won in OT 4-3 @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1408)
- March 11: Lost 6-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1408)
- March 13: Won 6-3 vs. Nashville Predators (27th, 1451)
Next week:
- March 15: vs. Nashville Predators (27th, 1451)
- March 16: @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1487)
- March 18: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1479)
- March 20: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1479)
- March 21: vs. Florida Panthers (8th, 1543)
2. New York Islanders ▲1 (1563, ▲9)
Record: 19-6-4, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 94% (▲8)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- March 9: Won in SO 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1544)
- March 11: Won 5-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
- March 13: Won 3-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
- March 14: Won in SO 3-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
Next week:
- March 16: @ Washington Capitals (3rd, 1556)
- March 18: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)
- March 20: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)
3. Washington Capitals ▲4 (1556, ▲13)
Record: 17-6-4, 2nd in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 91% (▲11)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- March 9: Won in OT 5-4 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
- March 11: Won 5-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)
- March 13: Won 5-4 @ Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)
Next week:
- March 15: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1415)
- March 16: vs. New York Islanders (2nd, 1563)
- March 19: vs. New York Rangers (18th, 1492)
- March 20: vs. New York Rangers (18th, 1492)
4. Vegas Golden Knights ▼2 (1549, ▼6)
Record: 18-6-1, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 96%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)
Last week: 2-2-0
- March 8: Lost 2-0 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
- March 10: Lost 4-3 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
- March 12: Won in OT 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (15th, 1512)
- March 13: Won 5-1 @ St. Louis Blues (15th, 1512)
Next week:
- March 15: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1468)
- March 17: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1468)
- March 19: @ Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)
- March 21: @ Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)
5. Colorado Avalanche (1548)
Record: 16-8-2, 3rd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 88% (▲5)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 3-1-0
- March 8: Lost 3-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
- March 10: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
- March 12: Won 2-0 vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)
- March 14: Won 4-1 vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)
Next week:
- March 16: vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1422)
- March 18: vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
- March 20: vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
Overall Ratings
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 1584 (▼9) 2 New York Islanders (▲1) 1563 (▲9) 3 Washington Capitals (▲4) 1556 (▲13) 4 Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 1549 (▼6) 5 Colorado Avalanche 1548 6 Carolina Hurricanes (▲2) 1547 (▲8) 7 Boston Bruins (▼2) 1544 (▼4) 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 1543 (▲14) 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲5) 1543 (▲27) 10 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 1528 (▲5) 11 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼8) 1526 (▼28) 12 Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 1525 (▲19) 13 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3) 1523 (▲19) 14 Philadelphia Flyers (▼5) 1518 (▼19) 15 St. Louis Blues (▼3) 1512 (▼9) 16 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 1500 (▼6) 17 Calgary Flames (▲6) 1495 (▲14) 18 New York Rangers (▼1) 1492 (▼1) 19 Arizona Coyotes 1490 20 Dallas Stars 1487 (▼1) 21 Los Angeles Kings (▼3) 1486 (▼5) 22 Chicago Blackhawks 1479 (▼3) 23 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) 1478 (▼9) 24 Vancouver Canucks 1475 25 San Jose Sharks (▲2) 1468 (▲17) 26 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1456 (▼7) 27 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1451 (▼6) 28 Anaheim Ducks 1422 (▼23) 29 Buffalo Sabres 1415 (▼10) 30 Ottawa Senators 1409 (▼4) 31 Detroit Red Wings 1408 (▲8)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 52% (▼15) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 28% (▲8) 3 Florida Panthers 19% (▲7) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% (▼1) 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) <1%
East Division
1 New York Islanders 41% (▲10) 2 Washington Capitals (▲1) 30% (▲8) 3 Boston Bruins (▼1) 14% (▼12) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 11% (▲4) 5 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 3% (▼10) 6 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) New York Rangers <1% (▼1) 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1%
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 48% (▼10) 2 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 25% (▲15) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 20% (▲1) 4 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 4% (▼6) 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 1% (▼1) 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2) 1% (▲1) 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1) <1% (▼1)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 38% (▼29) 2 Winnipeg Jets 37% (▲22) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 14% (▲6) 4 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 8% (▼2) 5 Calgary Flames 3% (▲2) 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning >99% (▲1) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 99% (▲3) 3 Florida Panthers 98% (▲7) 4 Chicago Blackhawks 54% (▼2) 5 Dallas Stars 30% (▲2) 6 Columbus Blue Jackets 14% (▼5) 7 Nashville Predators 6% (▼4) 8 Detroit Red Wings 1% (▲1)
East Division
1 New York Islanders 94% (▲8) 2 Washington Capitals (▲1) 91% (▲11) 3 Boston Bruins (▼1) 79% (▼4) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 78% (▲21) 5 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 44% (▼23) 6 New York Rangers 12% (▼7) 7 New Jersey Devils 2% (▼5) 8 Buffalo Sabres <1% (▼1)
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 96% 2 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 90% (▲20) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 88% (▲5) 4 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 56% (▼14) 5 Los Angeles Kings 30% (▼10) 6 Arizona Coyotes 20% (▼8) 7 San Jose Sharks 19% (▲10) 8 Anaheim Ducks 1% (▼3)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 95% (▼4) 2 Winnipeg Jets 94% (▲7) 3 Edmonton Oilers 84% (▲1) 4 Montreal Canadiens 69% (▼11) 5 Calgary Flames 46% (▲11) 6 Vancouver Canucks 12% (▼4) 7 Ottawa Senators <1% (▼2)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 35% (▼6) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲2) 17% (▲7) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 11% (▼4) 4 Florida Panthers (▲1) 10% (▲5) 5 New York Islanders (▲1) 8% (▲4) 6 Washington Capitals (▲2) 5% (▲3) 7 Minnesota Wild (▲3) 3% (▲2) 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 2% (▼1) 8 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 2% 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5) 2% (▼11) 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 2% (▲1) 12 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3) 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 13% (▼1) 2 New York Islanders (▲2) 9% (▲2) 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2) 7% (▲1) 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 7% (▼1) 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) 7% (▲1) 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 6% 6 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3) 6% (▲1) 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7) 6% (▲3) 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼4) 5% (▼1) 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 5% (▲1) 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7) 5% (▼3) 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 5% (▲2) 13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3) 3% (▲1) 13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2) 3% (▼1) 15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6) 2% (▼3) 18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1% 18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1% 18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) 1% 18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1% 18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1) 1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7) 1% (▲1) 24 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼7) <1% (▼1) 24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼7) <1% (▼1)