Although we are not yet at the mid-point of the NHL schedule, some of the playoff teams are already being sorted out, according to our ratings. There are still lots of changes in the ratings and rankings, but trends are starting to become evident.
Tampa Bay continues to be the top-ranked team, and we predict that they have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 41% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 14% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Although they went 3-0-1 this week, three of those games, including their shootout loss, were against the 22nd-ranked Blackhawks. They have a pretty easy week coming up, too, with two games against the last-ranked Red Wings and one against the 26th-ranked Predators.
Vegas moved into the top 5, going 4-0-0 this week. They are favourites to win their division, as we’re giving them a 58% chance of doing that. The Islanders also went 4-0-0, and moved into the top 5 for the first time this year. Toronto remains in the top 5, but dropped from 2nd in our rankings to 3rd. They started the week strong with two convincing wins against the Oilers, but then lost twice in Vancouver. Boston and Colorado round out the top 5, tied for 5th. Boston went 1-1-1, and Colorado went 2-1-1.
As I said earlier, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus already. In the Central Division, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Florida all have a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs. The fourth playoff spot remains a toss-up, with Chicago at 56%, Dallas at 28%, and Columbus at 19% all having reasonable chances. We give Detroit less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
In the East Division, the Islanders (86%), Bruins (83%), and Capitals (80%) are favourites to make the playoffs. The last playoff spot is close, with the Flyers (67%) and Penguins (57%) being the strongest contenders. The Rangers can’t be counted out at 19%.
In the West Division, Vegas should make the playoffs — we’re giving them a 96% chance. Colorado is also likely, at 83%. Minnesota and St. Louis both have a 70% chance, followed by LA at 40% and Arizona at 28%.
In the North Division, Toronto should be a shoe-in at 99%. Winnipeg (87%), Edmonton (83%), and Montreal (80%) are the next most likely teams, but being in the first half of the season, things can still change quite a bit. Calgary still has a 35% chance, and even Vancouver has a shot at 16%, and with their two wins this week against Toronto, they show they could surprise.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1593, ▲11)
Record: 17-4-2, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 41% (▲13)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-1
- March 2: Won 2-0 @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1488)
- March 4: Won in OT 3-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)
- March 5: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)
- March 7: Won 6-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)
Next week:
- March 9: @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1400)
- March 11: @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1400)
- March 13: vs. Nashville Predators (26th, 1457)
2. Vegas Golden Knights ▲4 (1555, ▲10)
Record: 16-4-1, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 96% (▲8)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 4-0-0
- March 1: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
- March 3: Won 5-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
- March 5: Won in OT 5-4 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
- March 6: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
Next week:
- March 8: @ Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
- March 10: @ Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
- March 12: @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1521)
- March 13: @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1521)
3 (tie). New York Islanders ▲5 (1554, ▲20)
Record: 15-6-4, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 86% (▲15)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲3)
Last week: 4-0-0
- March 2: Won 2-1 @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
- March 4: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)
- March 6: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)
- March 7: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)
Next week:
- March 9: vs. Boston Bruins (5th, 1548)
- March 11: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
- March 13: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
- March 14: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
3 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1554, ▼2)
Record: 18-6-2, 1st in North Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼8)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)
Last week: 2-2-0
- March 1: Won 3-0 @ Edmonton Oilers (11th, 1523)
- March 3: Won 6-1 @ Edmonton Oilers (11th, 1523)
- March 4: Lost 3-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (24th, 1475)
- March 6: Lost 4-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (24th, 1475)
Next week:
- March 9: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
- March 11: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
- March 13: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
- March 14: @ Ottawa Senators (30th, 1413)
5 (tie). Boston Bruins (1548, ▼5)
Record: 13-6-3, 3rd in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 83% (▼4)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▼4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)
Last week: 1-1-1
- March 3: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1543)
- March 5: Won 5-1 vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1543)
- March 7: Lost 1-0 vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
Next week:
- March 9: @ New York Islanders (3rd, 1554)
- March 11: vs. New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
- March 13: vs. New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
5 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▼3 (1548, ▼8)
Record: 13-7-2, 3rd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 83% (▼3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-1
- March 1: Lost 6-2 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
- March 3: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
- March 5: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1445)
- March 6: Lost in OT 5-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1445)
Next week:
- March 8: vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
- March 10: vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
- March 12: vs. Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1491)
- March 14: vs. Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1491)
Overall Ratings
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 1593 (▲11) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▲4) 1555 (▲10) 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲5) 1554 (▲20) 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 1554 (▼2) 5 (tie) Boston Bruins 1548 (▼5) 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼3) 1548 (▼8) 7 Washington Capitals 1543 (▲4) 8 Carolina Hurricanes (▲3) 1539 (▲19) 9 Philadelphia Flyers (▼5) 1537 (▼18) 10 Florida Panthers 1529 (▲6) 11 Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 1523 (▼9) 12 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 1521 (▲14) 13 Minnesota Wild (▼2) 1516 (▼4) 14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3) 1506 (▲11) 14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1506 (▼10) 16 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3) 1504 (▲16) 17 New York Rangers (▲6) 1493 (▲15) 18 Los Angeles Kings (▼3) 1491 (▼9) 19 Arizona Coyotes (▲2) 1490 (▲9) 20 Dallas Stars (▼4) 1488 (▼9) 21 Columbus Blue Jackets 1487 (▲6) 22 Chicago Blackhawks (▼2) 1482 (▼4) 23 Calgary Flames (▼5) 1481 (▼11) 24 Vancouver Canucks (▲3) 1475 (▲22) 25 New Jersey Devils 1463 (▼12) 26 Nashville Predators (▼2) 1457 (▼20) 27 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1451 (▼3) 28 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 1445 (▼8) 29 Buffalo Sabres 1425 (▼19) 30 Ottawa Senators 1413 31 Detroit Red Wings 1400 (▼9)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 67% (▲6) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 20% (▲6) 3 Florida Panthers (▼1) 12% (▼6) 4 Chicago Blackhawks 1% (▼3) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) <1% 5 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% (▼2) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) <1% 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) <1% (▼1)
East Division
1 New York Islanders (▲3) 31% (▲18) 2 Boston Bruins (▼1) 26% (▼6) 3 Washington Capitals 22% (▲3) 4 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 13% (▼17) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins 7% (▲3) 6 New York Rangers 1% 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1) <1% (▼1)
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 58% (▲20) 2 Colorado Avalanche 19% (▼10) 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild 10% (▼10) 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) 10% (▲4) 5 Los Angeles Kings 2% (▼3) 6 Arizona Coyotes 1% 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1) <1% (▼1)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 67% (▲5) 2 Winnipeg Jets 15% (▼3) 3 Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 10% (▲5) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 8% (▼5) 5 Calgary Flames 1% (▼1) 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 99% (▲2) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 96% (▲13) 3 Florida Panthers (▼1) 91% (▲5) 4 Chicago Blackhawks 56% (▲1) 5 Dallas Stars 28% (▼11) 6 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 19% (▲3) 7 Nashville Predators (▼1) 10% (▼13) 8 Detroit Red Wings <1% (▼1)
East Division
1 New York Islanders (▲3) 86% (▲15) 2 Boston Bruins (▼1) 83% (▼4) 3 Washington Capitals 80% (▲3) 4 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 67% (▼18) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins 57% (▲14) 6 New York Rangers (▲1) 19% (▲5) 7 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 7% (▼12) 8 Buffalo Sabres 1% (▼4)
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 96% (▲8) 2 Colorado Avalanche 83% (▼3) 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild 70% (▼7) 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) 70% (▲19) 5 Los Angeles Kings 40% (▼10) 6 Arizona Coyotes 28% (▲4) 7 San Jose Sharks 9% (▼6) 8 Anaheim Ducks 4% (▼4)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 99% (▲1) 2 Winnipeg Jets 87% 3 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 83% (▼4) 4 Montreal Canadiens 80% (▲13) 5 Calgary Flames 35% (▼15) 6 Vancouver Canucks 16% (▲9) 7 Ottawa Senators 2% (▼1)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 41% (▲13) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 15% (▲7) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 13% (▼8) 4 Carolina Hurricanes (▲4) 10% (▲6) 5 Florida Panthers (▲1) 5% 6 New York Islanders (▲6) 4% (▲2) 7 Boston Bruins (▼3) 3% (▼4) 8 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 2% (▼3) 8 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) 2% (▼1) 10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 1% (▼2) 10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲4) 1% 10 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6) 1% (▼6) 10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5) 1% (▲1) 10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1% (▼2)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 14% (▲2) 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 8% (▼1) 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 8% (▲1) 4 New York Islanders (▲6) 7% (▲3) 5 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 6% (▼1) 5 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲5) 6% (▲2) 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 6% (▼1) 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) 6% (▲1) 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2) 5% 9 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6) 5% (▼2) 11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼4) 4% (▼1) 11 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3) 4% (▲1) 13 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3) 3% (▼1) 13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 3% (▲1) 13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3) 3% (▼1) 16 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4) 2% (▲1) 17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3) 1% 17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2) 1% (▼1) 17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼2) 1% (▼1) 17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3) 1% 17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 1% (▼1) 17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼2) 1% (▼1) 17 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3) 1% 17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲9) 1% (▲1) 25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 25 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼5) <1% (▼1) 25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼5) <1% (▼1) 25 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1%