This week’s McDonald NHL Power Ratings are out a little later than usual, but here they are!
Boston had a strong week (3-0-0 against the Capitals and Flyers) to move into first in the rankings. Tampa Bay also went 3-0-0, but because they played against weaker teams, their rating didn’t increase as much as Boston’s, so they’ve dropped into 2nd place. The Leafs cracked the top 5 for the first time this year, possibly for the first time since I’ve done the ratings. Other big movers included Winnipeg (12th, 2-0-1, up 12 points), Arizona (16th, 2-1-0, up 14 points), and the Rangers (19th, 2-0-0, up 15 points).
Boston and Tampa Bay are still the favourites to win the Stanley Cup. We give both teams a 9% chance of winning. Ottawa and Detroit are the longshots, at only a 7% and 4% chance of even making the playoffs.
On the downside, big droppers were Washington (9th, 0-3-0, down 24 points), Vancouver (26th, 0-4-0, down 23 points), and Los Angeles (27th, 0-3-0, down 19 points).
The top 5
1. Boston Bruins (1567, ▲17)
Record: 8-1-2, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 90% (▲13)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲8)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 1: Won 5-3 @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
- February 3: Won in OT 4-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1545)
- February 5: Won 2-1 @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1545)
Next week:
- February 10: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
- February 12: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
- February 13: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1503)
2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1563, ▲13)
Record: 7-1-1, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 88% (▲10)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲6)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 1: Won 5-2 vs. Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
- February 3: Won 5-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1405)
- February 5: Won 3-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1405)
Next week:
- February 8: @ Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
- February 9: @ Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
- February 11: @ Florida Panthers (13th, 1508)
- February 13: @ Florida Panthers (13th, 1508)
3. Colorado Avalanche (1552, ▲6)
Record: 7-3-1, 2nd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 82% (▲5)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%
Last week: 1-0-0
- February 2: Won 2-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (21th, 1489)
- February 4: Postponed vs. Minnesota Wild (21th, 1489)
- February 6: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (7th, 1530)
- February 7: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (7th, 1530)
Next week:
- February 9: vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1500)
- February 11: vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1500)
- February 14: @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1543)
4 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers ▼1 (1545, ▼1)
Record: 8-3-2, 2nd in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 79%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 1-1-1
- February 3: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1567)
- February 5: Lost 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1567)
- February 7: Won 7-4 @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
Next week:
- February 9: @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
- February 11: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1497)
- February 13: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1497)
- February 14: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
4 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲3 (1545, ▲11)
Record: 9-2-1, 1st in North Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 93% (▲7)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-0
- February 4: Won 7-3 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
- February 6: Won 5-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
Next week:
- February 8: vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
- February 10: @ Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1515)
- February 13: vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1515)
Overall Ratings
1 Boston Bruins 1567 (▲17) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1563 (▲13) 3 Colorado Avalanche 1552 (▲6) 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 1545 (▼1) 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 1545 (▲11) 6 Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 1543 (▲10) 7 St. Louis Blues (▼2) 1530 (▼14) 8 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 1518 (▲1) 9 Washington Capitals (▼3) 1516 (▼24) 10 (tie) Dallas Stars 1515 10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3) 1515 (▲9) 12 Winnipeg Jets (▲3) 1513 (▲12) 13 Florida Panthers (▼2) 1508 (▼6) 14 New York Islanders (▲2) 1503 (▲6) 15 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3) 1501 (▼9) 16 Arizona Coyotes (▲7) 1500 (▲14) 17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3) 1497 (▼5) 17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1497 19 New York Rangers (▲6) 1494 (▲15) 20 Edmonton Oilers 1492 (▼2) 21 Minnesota Wild (▼3) 1489 (▼6) 22 Chicago Blackhawks (▲3) 1488 (▲9) 23 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼5) 1482 (▼13) 24 Nashville Predators (▼2) 1477 (▼10) 25 Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 1474 (▲7) 26 Vancouver Canucks (▼5) 1470 (▼23) 27 Los Angeles Kings (▼3) 1464 (▼19) 28 San Jose Sharks 1463 (▲2) 29 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1461 30 Ottawa Senators 1423 (▼2) 31 Detroit Red Wings 1405 (▲3)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 43% (▲14) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 19% 3 Florida Panthers (▼1) 15% (▼6) 4 Dallas Stars 13% (▼2) 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) 4% (▲1) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 4% (▼4) 7 Nashville Predators (▼1) 2% (▼3) 8 Detroit Red Wings <1%
East Division
1 Boston Bruins (▲1) 48% (▲22) 2 Philadelphia Flyers 22% (▼4) 3 Washington Capitals (▼2) 10% (▼17) 4 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 6% 5 New York Islanders (▲1) 5% (▲1) 6 New York Rangers (▲1) 4% (▲2) 7 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 3% (▼4) 8 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 2%
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 36% (▲10) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 29% (▲4) 3 St. Louis Blues (▼2) 17% (▼11) 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) 6% (▲2) 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild 6% (▼2) 6 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 3% (▲1) 7 San Jose Sharks 2% 8 Los Angeles Kings (▼3) 1% (▼4)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 45% (▲9) 2 Montreal Canadiens 25% (▲2) 3 Winnipeg Jets 18% (▲4) 4 Calgary Flames 7% (▼4) 5 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 4% (▼2) 6 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1% (▼8) 7 Ottawa Senators <1%
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 88% (▲10) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 72% (▲3) 3 Florida Panthers (▼1) 65% (▼5) 4 Dallas Stars 62% (▼1) 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) 39% (▲10) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 39% (▼11) 7 Nashville Predators (▼1) 29% (▼8) 8 Detroit Red Wings 4%
East Division
1 Boston Bruins (▲2) 90% (▲13) 2 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 79% 3 Washington Capitals (▼1) 57% (▼21) 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) 43% (▲8) 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) 43% (▲2) 6 New York Rangers (▲1) 34% (▲12) 7 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 32% (▼13) 8 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 22%
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 84% (▲9) 2 Colorado Avalanche 82% (▲5) 3 St. Louis Blues (▼2) 70% (▼9) 4 Arizona Coyotes (▲2) 45% (▲11) 5 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 43% (▼7) 6 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 30% (▲7) 7 San Jose Sharks 27% (▲4) 8 Los Angeles Kings (▼3) 19% (▼19)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 93% (▲7) 2 Montreal Canadiens 85% (▲8) 3 Winnipeg Jets 78% (▲13) 4 Calgary Flames 59% 5 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 49% (▲1) 6 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 29% (▼26) 7 Ottawa Senators 7% (▼2)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3) 16% (▲8) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 16% (▲6) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 13% (▲4) 4 Vegas Golden Knights (▲3) 10% (▲3) 5 Colorado Avalanche (▲4) 7% (▲1) 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲3) 6% 6 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲5) 6% (▲1) 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 6% (▼2) 9 Florida Panthers (▼2) 4% (▼3) 10 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 3% (▼2) 10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6) 3% (▼5) 10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3) 3% (▲1) 13 Washington Capitals (▼11) 2% (▼7) 14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲10) 1% (▲1) 14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1) 1% (▼1) 14 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲10) 1% (▲1) 14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 1% 14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) 1% 14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 (tie) Boston Bruins 9% (▲2) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 9% (▲2) 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 7% 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 7% (▲1) 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5) 7% (▲2) 6 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 6% 7 St. Louis Blues (▼3) 5% (▼1) 8 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 4% 8 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 4% 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 4% 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5) 4% (▲1) 12 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3) 3% (▼1) 12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼8) 3% (▼3) 14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3) 2% 14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲11) 2% (▲1) 14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3) 2% 14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 2% 14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3) 2% 14 (tie) New York Rangers (▲11) 2% (▲1) 14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3) 2% 23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 1% 23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1% 23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼6) 1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼6) 1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6) 1% (▼1) 23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2) 1% 23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼10) 1% (▼2) 30 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 30 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%