I’ve been working on a little project for the last couple of years to predict who’s going to win the Stanley Cup. It’s based on Elo ratings, with my own little tweaks to optimize the predictions, and with those ratings, I simulate the entire season 100,000 times to see what the chances are of each team winning the Stanley Cup. Anyways, I thought that I would post my current “McDonald NHL Power Ratings” on my blog. There’s still some changes I want to make to these reports, but here’s what I’ve got right now!
Note that the changes in ratings and rankings are the changes relative to last week (February 23). Also, note that the average team rating is 1500; teams with a higher rating are above average, and those below are below average.
The top 5
1. Boston Bruins ▲1 (1597, ▲3)
Record: 41-13-12, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 68% (▲11)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲2)
Last week: 2-1-0
- February 25: Lost 5-2 vs. Calgary Flames (15th, 1508)
- February 27: Won 4-3 vs. Dallas Stars (7th, 1530)
- February 29: Won 4-0 @ New York Islanders (15th, 1508)
Next week:
- March 3: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1583)
- March 5: @ Florida Panthers (20th, 1499)
- March 7: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1583)
2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1583, ▲19)
Record: 39-18-7, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 26: Won 3-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (26th, 1452)
- February 28: Won 3-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (18th, 1505)
- February 29: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (17th, 1507)
Next week:
- March 2: @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1388)
- March 4: vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1440)
- March 6: @ Vancouver Canucks (21st, 1493)
- March 8: @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1460)
2 (tie). Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1583, ▼16)
Record: 41-19-5, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼19)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼4)
Last week: 1-2-0
- February 25: Lost 4-3 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (9th, 1528)
- February 27: Lost 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1462)
- February 29: Won 4-3 vs. Calgary Flames (15th, 1508)
Next week:
- March 3: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1597)
- March 5: vs. Montreal Canadiens (27th, 1446)
- March 7: @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1597)
- March 8: @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1338)
4. St. Louis Blues (1552, ▲2)
Record: 39-17-10, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 25: Won 6-5 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1462)
- February 27: Won in OT 3-2 vs. New York Islanders (15th, 1508)
- February 29: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Dallas Stars (7th, 1530)
Next week:
- March 3: @ New York Rangers (10th, 1521)
- March 6: @ New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1480)
- March 8: @ Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1462)
5. Philadelphia Flyers ▲3 (1551, ▲20)
Record: 38-20-7, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 97% (▲17)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 25: Won 4-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1460)
- February 28: Won 5-2 vs. New York Rangers (10th, 1521)
- March 1: Won 5-3 @ New York Rangers (10th, 1521)
Next week:
- March 4: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1539)
- March 5: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (18th, 1505)
- March 7: vs. Buffalo Sabres (26th, 1452)
Overall Ratings
1 Boston Bruins (▲1) 1597 (▲3) 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 1583 (▲19) 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1583 (▼16) 4 St. Louis Blues 1552 (▲2) 5 Philadelphia Flyers (▲3) 1551 (▲20) 6 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1539 (▼1) 7 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲4) 1530 (▲3) 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 1530 9 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9) 1528 (▲24) 10 New York Rangers 1521 (▼7) 11 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 1520 (▼13) 12 Edmonton Oilers 1519 (▼1) 13 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6) 1513 (▲13) 13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7) 1513 (▼26) 15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲6) 1508 (▲15) 15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) 1508 (▼6) 17 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1507 (▼3) 18 Carolina Hurricanes (▼6) 1505 (▼15) 19 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 1500 (▲4) 20 Florida Panthers (▼4) 1499 (▼11) 21 Vancouver Canucks (▼7) 1493 (▼21) 22 Arizona Coyotes 1486 (▼2) 23 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1480 (▲14) 24 Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) 1462 (▲8) 25 San Jose Sharks 1460 (▲3) 26 Buffalo Sabres (▼3) 1452 (▼16) 27 Montreal Canadiens 1446 (▼7) 28 Anaheim Ducks 1440 (▲2) 29 Los Angeles Kings 1437 (▲20) 30 Ottawa Senators 1419 (▲4) 31 Detroit Red Wings 1338 (▼8)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Washington Capitals 62% (▲15) 2 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 22% (▲16) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 11% (▼25) 4 New York Islanders (▼1) 3% (▼3) 5 Carolina Hurricanes 1% (▼2) 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% (▼1) 6 (tie) New York Rangers <1% (▼1) 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins 81% (▲18) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 19% (▼18) 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 3 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 59% (▲13) 2 St. Louis Blues 37% (▼4) 3 Dallas Stars 4% (▼8) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 48% (▲10) 2 Edmonton Oilers 32% (▲2) 3 Vancouver Canucks 12% (▼16) 4 Calgary Flames 8% (▲5) 5 Arizona Coyotes 1% 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Eastern Conference
1 (tie) Boston Bruins >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) >99% (▲2) 4 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 97% (▲17) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 89% (▼7) 6 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 88% (▲37) 7 New York Islanders (▼1) 79% 8 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 49% (▼15) 9 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 41% (▼2) 10 New York Rangers (▲1) 35% (▲3) 11 Florida Panthers (▼2) 22% (▼27) 12 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 1% (▼5) 12 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 1% (▼1) 14 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 14 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 14 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Western Conference
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche >99% 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues >99% 3 Dallas Stars 99% 4 Vegas Golden Knights 95% (▲1) 5 Edmonton Oilers 90% (▼1) 6 Vancouver Canucks 73% (▼16) 7 Calgary Flames (▲1) 67% (▲16) 8 Nashville Predators (▼1) 60% (▼3) 9 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 49% (▲13) 10 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 30% (▼7) 11 Winnipeg Jets 29% (▼5) 12 Chicago Blackhawks 7% (▲2) 13 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings <1% 13 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Boston Bruins 68% (▲11) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 13% (▼19) 3 Colorado Avalanche 10% (▲7) 4 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 5% (▲3) 5 Washington Capitals (▼2) 3%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Boston Bruins (▲1) 16% (▲2) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 13% (▲3) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 11% (▼4) 4 St. Louis Blues 8% 5 Philadelphia Flyers (▲4) 7% (▲3) 6 Washington Capitals (▼1) 6% (▲1) 7 Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 5% 8 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼3) 4% (▼1) 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 4% 10 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲6) 3% (▲1) 10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼5) 3% (▼2) 10 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9) 3% (▲2) 13 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 2% (▼1) 13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 2% (▼1) 13 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6) 2% (▲1) 13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) 2% (▼1) 13 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3) 2% 13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 2% (▼1) 13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4) 2% (▼2) 20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1% 20 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼4) 1% (▼1) 20 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1% 23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings <1% 23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 23 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 23 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1%