Month: March 2020

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – March 8, 2020

Philadelphia has continued their winning ways, increasing their rating by 18 points.  I’ve now got them at a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They’ve got two tough games coming up though: #1 Boston on Tuesday, and #2 Tampa Bay on Thursday.

Boston is still the favourite, with a 15% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, down 1% from last week.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1595, ▼2)

Record: 43-14-12, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 79% (▲11)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 15% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • March 3: Won 2-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)
  • March 5: Won in OT 2-1 @ Florida Panthers (17th, 1506)
  • March 7: Lost 5-3 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)

Next week:

  • March 10: @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1569)
  • March 13: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1435)
  • March 14: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1511)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning (1584, ▲1)

Record: 43-20-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼5)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-1

  • March 3: Lost 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
  • March 5: Won 4-0 vs. Montreal Canadiens (28th, 1446)
  • March 7: Won 5-3 @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
  • March 8: Lost in SO 5-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)

Next week:

  • March 10: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1511)
  • March 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1569)
  • March 14: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)
  • March 15: vs. New Jersey Devils (20th, 1492)

3. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1580, ▼3)

Record: 41-19-8, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼4)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 13%

Last week: 2-1-1

  • March 2: Won 2-1 @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)
  • March 4: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1447)
  • March 6: Lost 6-3 @ Vancouver Canucks (23rd, 1485)
  • March 8: Won 4-3 @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1453)

Next week:

  • March 9: @ Los Angeles Kings (26th, 1447)
  • March 11: vs. New York Rangers (19th, 1504)
  • March 13: vs. Vancouver Canucks (23rd, 1485)
  • March 15: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (7th, 1537)

4. Philadelphia Flyers ▲1 (1569, ▲18)

Record: 41-20-7, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99% (▲3)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • March 4: Won 5-2 @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1539)
  • March 5: Won 4-1 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (14th, 1509)
  • March 7: Won 3-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1435)

Next week:

  • March 10: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
  • March 12: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)
  • March 14: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1516)
  • March 15: vs. Edmonton Oilers (8th, 1527)

5. St. Louis Blues ▼1 (1558, ▲6)

Record: 41-18-10, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • March 3: Won 3-1 @ New York Rangers (19th, 1504)
  • March 6: Lost 4-2 @ New Jersey Devils (20th, 1492)
  • March 8: Won 2-0 @ Chicago Black Hawks (24th, 1459)

Next week:

  • March 9: vs. Florida Panthers (17th, 1506)
  • March 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1447)
  • March 13: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1453)
  • March 15: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1424)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1595 (▼2)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           1584 (▲1)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1580 (▼3)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1569 (▲18)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1558 (▲6)
 6       Washington Capitals           1539
 7       Vegas Golden Knights          1537 (▲7)
 8       Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          1527 (▲8)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1522 (▲2)
10       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1516 (▲3)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4)             1513 (▼17)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲8)            1513 (▲13)
13       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1511 (▼17)
14 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      1509 (▲4)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      1509 (▲2)
16       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1508 (▼5)
17       Florida Panthers (▲3)         1506 (▲7)
18       Calgary Flames (▼3)           1505 (▼3)
19       New York Rangers (▼9)         1504 (▼17)
20       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1492 (▲12)
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1489 (▲3)
21 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6)       1489 (▼19)
23       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        1485 (▼8)
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1459 (▼3)
25       San Jose Sharks               1453 (▼7)
26 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1447 (▲7)
26 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1447 (▲10)
28       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1446
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼3)           1435 (▼17)
30       Ottawa Senators               1424 (▲5)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1348 (▲10)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Washington Capitals           50% (▼12)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           45% (▲23)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▼7)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders            <1% (▼3)
 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         <1%
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 89% (▲8)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           11% (▼8)
 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            53% (▼6)
 2       St. Louis Blues               46% (▲9)
 3 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
 3 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1% (▼4)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           <1%
 3 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          48%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               43% (▲11)
 3 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           4% (▼4)
 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             4% (▼8)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%

Making the Playoffs

Eastern Conference

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 >99%
 1 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      >99% (▲3)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           >99%
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           91% (▲2)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs           71% (▼17)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      69% (▲20)
 8       New York Islanders (▼1)       59% (▼20)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets         47% (▲6)
10       Florida Panthers (▲1)         41% (▲19)
11       New York Rangers (▼1)         21% (▼14)
12 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)
12 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
12 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)
12 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
12 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%

Western Conference

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               >99%
 3 (tie) Dallas Stars                  97% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          97% (▲7)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     97% (▲2)
 6       Calgary Flames (▲1)           70% (▲3)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           59% (▲10)
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        56% (▼17)
 9       Nashville Predators (▼1)      53% (▼7)
10       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            42% (▲13)
11       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          25% (▼5)
12       Chicago Blackhawks            2% (▼5)
13 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
13 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 79% (▲11)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           8% (▼5)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            6% (▼4)
 4       St. Louis Blues               4% (▼1)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      2% (▲2)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 15% (▼1)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            13%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           12% (▲1)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      10% (▲3)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          9% (▲1)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     6% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             3% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      3%
11 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      2%
11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    2%
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           2%
11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2%
11 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲9)            2% (▲1)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1%
18 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders (▼5)       1% (▼1)
18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼5)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – March 1, 2020

I’ve been working on a little project for the last couple of years to predict who’s going to win the Stanley Cup.  It’s based on Elo ratings, with my own little tweaks to optimize the predictions, and with those ratings, I simulate the entire season 100,000 times to see what the chances are of each team winning the Stanley Cup.  Anyways, I thought that I would post my current “McDonald NHL Power Ratings” on my blog.  There’s still some changes I want to make to these reports, but here’s what I’ve got right now!

Note that the changes in ratings and rankings are the changes relative to last week (February 23).  Also, note that the average team rating is 1500; teams with a higher rating are above average, and those below are below average.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins ▲1 (1597, ▲3)

Record: 41-13-12, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 68% (▲11)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲2)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • February 25: Lost 5-2 vs. Calgary Flames (15th, 1508)
  • February 27: Won 4-3 vs. Dallas Stars (7th, 1530)
  • February 29: Won 4-0 @ New York Islanders (15th, 1508)

Next week:

  • March 3: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1583)
  • March 5: @ Florida Panthers (20th, 1499)
  • March 7: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1583)

2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1583, ▲19)

Record: 39-18-7, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲7)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • February 26: Won 3-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (26th, 1452)
  • February 28: Won 3-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (18th, 1505)
  • February 29: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (17th, 1507)

Next week:

  • March 2: @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1388)
  • March 4: vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1440)
  • March 6: @ Vancouver Canucks (21st, 1493)
  • March 8: @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1460)

2 (tie). Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1583, ▼16)

Record: 41-19-5, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼19)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼4)

Last week: 1-2-0

  • February 25: Lost 4-3 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (9th, 1528)
  • February 27: Lost 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1462)
  • February 29: Won 4-3 vs. Calgary Flames (15th, 1508)

Next week:

  • March 3: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1597)
  • March 5: vs. Montreal Canadiens (27th, 1446)
  • March 7: @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1597)
  • March 8: @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1338)

4. St. Louis Blues (1552, ▲2)

Record: 39-17-10, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 3-0-0

  • February 25: Won 6-5 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1462)
  • February 27: Won in OT 3-2 vs. New York Islanders (15th, 1508)
  • February 29: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Dallas Stars (7th, 1530)

Next week:

  • March 3: @ New York Rangers (10th, 1521)
  • March 6: @ New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1480)
  • March 8: @ Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1462)

5. Philadelphia Flyers ▲3 (1551, ▲20)

Record: 38-20-7, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: 97% (▲17)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • February 25: Won 4-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1460)
  • February 28: Won 5-2 vs. New York Rangers (10th, 1521)
  • March 1: Won 5-3 @ New York Rangers (10th, 1521)

Next week:

  • March 4: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1539)
  • March 5: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (18th, 1505)
  • March 7: vs. Buffalo Sabres (26th, 1452)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)            1597 (▲3)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       1583 (▲19)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1583 (▼16)
 4       St. Louis Blues               1552 (▲2)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      1551 (▲20)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1539 (▼1)
 7 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲4)             1530 (▲3)
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1530
 9       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9)      1528 (▲24)
10       New York Rangers              1521 (▼7)
11       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1520 (▼13)
12       Edmonton Oilers               1519 (▼1)
13 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6)           1513 (▲13)
13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7)      1513 (▼26)
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲6)           1508 (▲15)
15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       1508 (▼6)
17       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1507 (▼3)
18       Carolina Hurricanes (▼6)      1505 (▼15)
19       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            1500 (▲4)
20       Florida Panthers (▼4)         1499 (▼11)
21       Vancouver Canucks (▼7)        1493 (▼21)
22       Arizona Coyotes               1486 (▼2)
23       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1480 (▲14)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       1462 (▲8)
25       San Jose Sharks               1460 (▲3)
26       Buffalo Sabres (▼3)           1452 (▼16)
27       Montreal Canadiens            1446 (▼7)
28       Anaheim Ducks                 1440 (▲2)
29       Los Angeles Kings             1437 (▲20)
30       Ottawa Senators               1419 (▲4)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1338 (▼8)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Washington Capitals           62% (▲15)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      22% (▲16)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      11% (▼25)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       3% (▼3)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes           1% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers              <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 81% (▲18)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           19% (▼18)
 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            59% (▲13)
 2       St. Louis Blues               37% (▼4)
 3       Dallas Stars                  4% (▼8)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild                <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          48% (▲10)
 2       Edmonton Oilers               32% (▲2)
 3       Vancouver Canucks             12% (▼16)
 4       Calgary Flames                8% (▲5)
 5       Arizona Coyotes               1%
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Eastern Conference

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      >99% (▲2)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      97% (▲17)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      89% (▼7)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      88% (▲37)
 7       New York Islanders (▼1)       79%
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      49% (▼15)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    41% (▼2)
10       New York Rangers (▲1)         35% (▲3)
11       Florida Panthers (▼2)         22% (▼27)
12 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1% (▼5)
12 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
14 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Western Conference

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               >99%
 3       Dallas Stars                  99%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          95% (▲1)
 5       Edmonton Oilers               90% (▼1)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             73% (▼16)
 7       Calgary Flames (▲1)           67% (▲16)
 8       Nashville Predators (▼1)      60% (▼3)
 9       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           49% (▲13)
10       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          30% (▼7)
11       Winnipeg Jets                 29% (▼5)
12       Chicago Blackhawks            7% (▲2)
13 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
13 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 68% (▲11)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           13% (▼19)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            10% (▲7)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          5% (▲3)
 5       Washington Capitals (▼2)      3%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)            16% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       13% (▲3)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      11% (▼4)
 4       St. Louis Blues               8%
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      7% (▲3)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      6% (▲1)
 7       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     5%
 8 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼3)             4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          4%
10 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲6)           3% (▲1)
10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼5)      3% (▼2)
10 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9)      3% (▲2)
13 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6)           2% (▲1)
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       2% (▼1)
13 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         2%
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        2% (▼2)
20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1%
20 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼4)         1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%