Tag: ratings

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 24, 2022

Hockey playerYesterday was the first pair of Game 4s in the Division Finals, and one of those series ended with a sweep!

In the first game of the day, Florida travelled to Tampa Bay, down 3 games to 0.  Remember, Florida won the President’s Trophy this year.  That curse seemed to work against them, as the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions shut them out 2-0, and swept the Atlantic Division finals 4 games to 0.  Andrei Vasilevskiy got the shutout for the Lightning, stopping all 49 (49!!!) shots he faced.  The shutout was his sixth in a series-clinching win, the most in NHL history.  Tampa Bay has now won 10 straight playoff series, one of only three teams to have ever done so.  The others were the New York Islanders (19 straight between 1980 and 1984), and the Montreal Canadiens (13 straight from 1975 to 1980, and 10 straight from 1955 to 1960).  Tampa Bay will face the winner of the Metropolitan Division final, either Carolina or the New York Rangers.

In the other game, Colorado played in St. Louis, with Colorado leading the series 2-1.  Nazem Kadri scored a hat trick for Colorado, leading the Avalanche to a 6-3 victory.  We’re now giving Colorado a 92.3% chance of winning the series.  Colorado is the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, and is our favourite to win the Stanley Cup.

There are two games tonight, both Game 4s.  In the first game, Carolina is in New York to play the Rangers, leading 2 games to 1.  We give Carolina a 74.2% chance of winning the series.  In the second game, in the Battle of Alberta, Edmonton hosts Calgary, with Edmonton holding a 2-1 lead in their series.  Although Calgary is the higher ranked team, with two games remaining in Edmonton and two in Calgary, we’re giving Edmonton the edge with a 67.9% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

  • Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
  • May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
  • May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3

  • Colorado leads series 3-1
  • Colorado now has a 92.3% chance of winning the series, up from 74.9%

Series schedule:

  • May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
  • May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
  • May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
  • May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
  • May 25: St. Louis at Colorado
  • May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 92.3% chance of winning (▲17.4)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 63.0% (▲31.5)
    • In 6 games: 18.1% (▼5.4)
    • In 7 games: 11.2% (▼8.7)
  • St. Louis has a 7.7% chance of winning (▼17.4)
    • In 7 games: 7.7% (▼6.1)
    • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼11.3)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina at NY Rangers

  • Carolina leads series 2-1
  • Carolina has a 74.2% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Calgary at Edmonton

  • Edmonton leads series 2-1
  • Edmonton has a 67.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Florida: 1591, 4th overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Florida: 2 regulation wins
  • Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

  • Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
  • Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

  • May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
  • May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
  • May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 74.2%, NY Rangers 25.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
  • NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins
  • NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

  • Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
  • NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

  • May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
  • May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
  • May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
  • May 24: Carolina at NY Rangers
  • May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina
  • May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers (if necessary)
  • May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 74.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 30.8%
    • In 6 games: 23.7%
    • In 7 games: 19.7%
  • NY Rangers has a 25.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.3%
    • In 6 games: 11.5%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 92.3%, St. Louis 7.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
  • St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Colorado: 2 regulation wins
  • St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

  • Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
  • May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
  • May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
  • May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
  • May 25: St. Louis at Colorado
  • May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 92.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 63.0%
    • In 6 games: 18.1%
    • In 7 games: 11.2%
  • St. Louis has a 7.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 7.7%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 32.1%, Edmonton 67.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
  • Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Calgary: 2 regulation wins
  • Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

  • Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
  • Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

  • May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
  • May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
  • May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
  • May 24: Calgary at Edmonton
  • May 26: Edmonton at Calgary
  • May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
  • May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 32.1% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 12.2%
    • In 7 games: 19.8%
  • Edmonton has a 67.9% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.7%
    • In 6 games: 26.9%
    • In 5 games: 26.3%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – 2nd Round Playoff Preview

Hockey playerAlthough the 2nd round of the playoffs have already started, I wasn’t able to get my playoff preview done because I had such crappy internet access on the cruise ship.  But, better late than never — here’s the McDonald NHL Power Ratings 2nd Round Playoff Preview!  You can also think of the 2nd Round as the Division Finals.

The 1st round was pretty exciting, as 5 of the series went 7 games, and 2 of those Game 7s went into overtime!  2 other series went 6 games, and one series ended in a sweep. All the teams that finished first in their division won over the wildcard teams, but two of the teams that finished third defeated 2nd-place teams, although in one of those, we had the 3rd-place team ranked higher.  And of course, Toronto disappointed their fans with a 7-game series loss to the 2-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

In the Eastern Conference, here were the results:

  • Atlantic Division:
    • Florida (1st) defeated Washington (WC2) in 6 games
    • Tampa Bay (3rd) defeated Toronto (2nd) in 7 games
  • Metropolitan Division:
    • Carolina (1st) defeated Boston (WC1) in 7 games
    • NY Rangers (2nd) defeated Pittsburgh (3rd) in 7 games

And in the Western Conference:

  • Central Division:
    • Colorado (1st) defeated Nashville (WC2) in 4 games
    • St. Louis (3rd) defeated Minnesota (2nd) in 6 games
  • Pacific Division:
    • Calgary (1st) defeated Dallas (WC1) in 7 games
    • Edmonton (2nd) defeated Los Angeles (3rd) in 7 games

After adjusting our ratings from the 1st round of the playoffs, Colorado remains our top-ranked team.  They are also the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, as we’ve calculated that they have a 22.6% chance of winning it all.  Only one team that was defeated in the first round remained above the remaining playoff teams, as our ratings now show Toronto would be ranked 5th.  Carolina and St. Louis are now tied for 2nd in our rankings.

There should be some good series in this next round as well!  We’re giving the biggest edge in a series to Colorado, who have only a 59% chance of defeated 2nd-ranked St. Louis, as well as Carolina, who also have a 59% chance of defeating the Rangers.  The other two series are equally close, as we’re giving Florida a 56% chance of defeating Tampa Bay, and Calgary a 56% chance of defeating Edmonton.

The Battle of Alberta!!!  That series should be exciting!  The two teams played each other 4 times this year, and in all 4 games, the home team won.  They seem pretty evenly matched, although we are giving Calgary the edge.  Unfortunately, these are the only two Canadian teams remaining.  We’ve now calculated that there’s an 18.9% chance of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup, down from 27.2% before the first round.

Finally, we’re calculating that there’s a 46.7% chance of an Eastern Conference team winning the Stanley Cup (down from 50.4%), and a 53.3% chance of a Western Conference team winning (up from 49.6%).

Here’s our summary!

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 56%, Tampa Bay 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Florida: 1591, 4th overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Florida: 2 regulation wins
  • Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

  • Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
  • Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd)  in 7 games

Series schedule:

  • May 17: Tampa Bay at Florida
  • May 19: Tampa Bay at Florida
  • May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
  • May 23: Florida at Tampa Bay
  • May 25: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
  • May 27: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • May 29: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Florida has a 56.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 9.1%
    • In 5 games: 16.6%
    • In 6 games: 14.6%
    • In 7 games: 15.9%
  • Tampa Bay has a 43.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.7%
    • In 6 games: 15.1%
    • In 5 games: 10.6%
    • In 4 games: 6.4%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 59%, NY Rangers 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
  • NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins
  • NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

  • Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
  • NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

  • May 18: NY Rangers at Carolina
  • May 20: NY Rangers at Carolina
  • May 22: Carolina at NY Rangers
  • May 24: Carolina at NY Rangers
  • May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)
  • May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers (if necessary)
  • May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 59.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 10.3%
    • In 5 games: 17.8%
    • In 6 games: 15.1%
    • In 7 games: 16.1%
  • New York Rangers has a 40.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.2%
    • In 6 games: 14.1%
    • In 5 games: 9.6%
    • In 4 games: 5.8%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 59%, St. Louis 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
  • St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Colorado: 2 regulation wins
  • St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

  • Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • May 17: St. Louis at Colorado
  • May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
  • May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
  • May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
  • May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 59.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 10.3%
    • In 5 games: 17.8%
    • In 6 games: 15.0%
    • In 7 games: 16.1%
  • St. Louis has a 40.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.2%
    • In 6 games: 14.2%
    • In 5 games: 9.6%
    • In 4 games: 5.8%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Chances of winning: Calgary 56%, Edmonton 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
  • Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Calgary: 2 regulation wins
  • Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

  • Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
  • Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

  • May 18: Edmonton at Calgary
  • May 20: Edmonton at Calgary
  • May 22: Calgary at Edmonton
  • May 24: Calgary at Edmonton
  • May 26: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)
  • May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
  • May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 56.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 9.1%
    • In 5 games: 16.7%
    • In 6 games: 14.6%
    • In 7 games: 15.9%
  • Edmonton has a 43.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.7%
    • In 6 games: 15.0%
    • In 5 games: 10.5%
    • In 4 games: 6.5%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 10, 2022

Hockey playerThe last of the first round Game 4s were played last night, and of the eight series, only one ended in a sweep.  And, there’s only one more that might potentially end in 5 games!  First round series aren’t usually so close, so it’s making for some exciting hockey.

In the first game of the day, Florida played in Washington, with the Capitals holding a 2-1 game lead in the series.  In a tight game, the game was tied 1-1 after one period.  No one scored in the 2nd, and in the third, Washington scored half-way through the third.  With the goalie pulled, Sam Reinhart scored with 2 minutes left to tie the game and send it into overtime.  5 minutes into the overtime period, Carter Verhaeghe scored for Florida to give them a 3-2 victory and a 2-2 tie in the series.  The President’s Trophy-winning Panthers now have a 61.7% chance of winning the series, a whopping jump of 23.1 percentage points!

In the second game, the Rangers played in Pittsburgh, down 2 games to 1.  Hoping to avenge their 7-4 loss in Game 3, New York was unsuccessful, as Pittsburgh scored 5 goals in the second period and eventually won the game 7-2.  Sidney Crosby had a goal and two assists, giving him a career playoff point total of 200.  Igor Shersterkin was pulled from the net by the Rangers for the second straight game after allowing 6 goals on 30 shots, but the Ranger coach didn’t blame him: “Total team disappointment.  It’s a team effort.”, said Gerard Gallant.  With the 3-1 series lead, we’re now giving Pittsburgh an 85.7% chance of winning the series.

The third game of the night had Colorado visiting Nashville, up 3-0 in the series.  Colorado is the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, and the team we figure has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They showed why last night, as they beat the Predators 5-3 to sweep the series.  Colorado outscored Nashville 21-9 in the series, and only trailed once.  Colorado will face either St. Louis or Minnesota in the next round of the playoffs.

In the final game of the night, Calgary faced Dallas on the road, needing a win as they were trailing in the series 2-1.  They didn’t disappoint their fans watching at home, as the Flames won 4-1.  Despite giving up 3 goals (Calgary’s fourth goal was an empty-netter), goalie Jake Oettinger stopped 50 shots for Dallas!  In a night of coaching quotes, Stars coach Rick Bowness quipped, “They were really good, and we were really bad”.  The teams head back to Calgary for Game 5 with the series tied 2 games apiece.  We’re giving Calgary the edge, with a 65.9% probability of winning the series.

There are four games on tap tonight, with all four series tied 2-2!  It’s make or break time!

Yesterday’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida 3 at Washington 2 (OT)

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Florida now has a 61.7% chance of winning the series, up from 38.6%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
  • May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
  • May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
  • May 9: Florida 3 at Washington 2 (OT)
  • May 11: Washington at Florida
  • May 13: Florida at Washington
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Florida has a 61.7% chance of winning (▲23.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 32.2% (▲16.7)
    • In 7 games: 29.5% (▲6.4)
  • Washington has a 38.3% chance of winning (▼23.1)
    • In 7 games: 18.5% (▲4.1)
    • In 6 games: 19.8% (▼5.3)
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼21.8)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh 7

  • Pittsburgh leads series 3-1
  • Pittsburgh now has a 85.7% chance of winning the series, up from 66.5%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
  • May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
  • May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
  • May 9: NY Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh 7
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 14.3% chance of winning (▼19.2)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼13.0)
    • In 7 games: 14.3% (▼6.2)
  • Pittsburgh has a 85.7% chance of winning (▲19.2)
    • In 7 games: 9.9% (▼4.7)
    • In 6 games: 29.7% (▲3.2)
    • In 5 games: 46.0% (▲20.7)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado 5 at Nashville 3

  • Colorado wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
  • May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
  • May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
  • May 9: Colorado 5 at Nashville 3

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary 4 at Dallas 1

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Calgary now has a 65.9% chance of winning the series, up from 43.9%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
  • May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
  • May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
  • May 9: Calgary 4 at Dallas 1
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 65.9% chance of winning (▲22.0)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 35.8% (▲17.2)
    • In 7 games: 30.2% (▲4.9)
  • Dallas has a 34.1% chance of winning (▼22.0)
    • In 7 games: 16.9% (▲2.8)
    • In 6 games: 17.1% (▼6.2)
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼18.7)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Boston at Carolina

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning the series

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at Toronto

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning the series

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis at Minnesota

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning the series

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles at Edmonton

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Florida 61.7%, Washington 38.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Florida: 1581, 6th overall
  • Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Florida: 7-3-0
  • Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
  • May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
  • May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
  • May 9: Florida 3 at Washington 2 (OT)
  • May 11: Washington at Florida
  • May 13: Florida at Washington
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Florida has a 61.7% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 32.2%
    • In 7 games: 29.5%
  • Washington has a 38.3% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 18.5%
    • In 6 games: 19.8%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 59.2%, Tampa Bay 40.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Toronto: 7-2-1
  • Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
  • May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
  • May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
  • May 8: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 30.6%
    • In 7 games: 28.6%
  • Tampa Bay has a 40.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 19.1%
    • In 6 games: 21.7%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 58.5%, Boston 41.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
  • Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins
  • Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Carolina: 8-2-0
  • Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
  • May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
  • May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
  • May 8: Carolina 2 at Boston 5
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 30.0%
    • In 7 games: 28.5%
  • Boston has a 41.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 19.9%
    • In 6 games: 21.6%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 14.3%, Pittsburgh 85.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
  • Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
  • Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • NY Rangers: 6-4-0
  • Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
  • May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
  • May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
  • May 9: NY Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh 7
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 14.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 7 games: 14.3%
  • Pittsburgh has a 85.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 9.9%
    • In 6 games: 29.7%
    • In 5 games: 46.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
  • Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win
  • Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Colorado: 4-5-1
  • Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
  • May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
  • May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
  • May 9: Colorado 5 at Nashville 3

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Minnesota 51.8%, St. Louis 48.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
  • St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Minnesota: 0 wins
  • St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Minnesota: 8-1-1
  • St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
  • May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
  • May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
  • May 8: Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 25.3%
    • In 7 games: 26.4%
  • St. Louis has a 48.2% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 21.7%
    • In 6 games: 26.5%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Calgary 65.9%, Dallas 34.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
  • Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Calgary: 2 regulation wins
  • Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Calgary: 6-2-2
  • Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
  • May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
  • May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
  • May 9: Calgary 4 at Dallas 1
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 65.9% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 35.8%
    • In 7 games: 30.2%
  • Dallas has a 34.1% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 16.9%
    • In 6 games: 17.1%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Edmonton 57.5%, Los Angeles 42.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
  • Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Edmonton: 7-2-1
  • Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
  • May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
  • May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
  • May 8: Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 28.9%
    • In 7 games: 28.5%
  • Los Angeles has a 42.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 19.9%
    • In 6 games: 22.6%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 9, 2022

Hockey playerYesterday was the start of the Game 4s in the first round playoffs, and after 4 games, each of those series is tied 2 games apiece!  So, we’re down to a best-of-3 in those.

In the first game of the day, Boston defeated Carolina 5-2.  Brad Marchand was the star of the game, scoring twice and assisting on the other three Bruin goals.  Carolina lead 2-1 early in the second period, but it was all Boston after that, as they scored 4 straight unanswered goals, the final one coming on an empty net.  Only three players in Bruins history have scored more points in a playoff game, all with six: Phil Esposito in 1969, Rick Middleton in 1983, and David Pastrnak in 2018.  Despite the Boston win, Carolina is still the favourite to win the series, with a 58.5% chance, as two of the remaining three games will be played in Carolina.

The second game saw Minnesota visiting St. Louis.  After a split in Minnesota, St. Louis lost in the last game at home, so they were desperate for a win, and they came through with a 5-2 victory.  David Perron and Jordan Kyrou each scored two goals for the Blues, and Jordan Binnington got the win in the net, his first playoff win after losing nine straight since getting the win in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2019.  With two of the next three games being played back in Minnesota, we’re giving the Wild the slightest of edges to take the series, 51.8% to 48.2%!

The third game of the day featured Tampa Bay at home against Toronto.  Game 3 in the series saw Toronto win 5-2, but this was Tampa Bay’s day, as they skated to a 7-3 victory.  Tampa Bay came out hard, scoring three times in the first 8 minutes, and led 5-0 after two periods before Toronto finally got on track.  Ross Colton scored twice for the Lightning, and William Nylander also scored twice for Toronto, his first goals of the playoffs.  The teams head back to Toronto, with the boys in the back room calculating that Toronto still has a 59.2% chance of winning the series.

And in the final game of the day, Edmonton played in Los Angeles.  After getting thumped 8-2 in the previous game, Los Angeles looked for revenge, and got it, thanks to Jonathan Quick’s shutout in net.  The final score was 4-0 LA, despite Mike Smith making 42 saves in net for Edmonton.  Game 5 goes in Edmonton, and we’re giving the Oilers a 57.5% chance of winning the series.

Four more Game 4s go tonight, with only the Nashville vs. Colorado series potentially ending tonight, as the Avalanche hold a 3 games to 0 lead.  We’ve calculated that Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning the series, and a 61.0% chance of wrapping it up tonight.

Yesterday’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina 2 at Boston 5

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Carolina now has a 58.5% chance of winning the series, down from 75.6%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
  • May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
  • May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
  • May 8: Carolina 2 at Boston 5
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning (▼17.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼32.0)
    • In 6 games: 30.0% (▲6.0)
    • In 7 games: 28.5% (▲8.9)
  • Boston has a 41.5% chance of winning (▲17.1)
    • In 7 games: 19.9% (▲6.3)
    • In 6 games: 21.6% (▲10.8)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Minnesota now has a 51.8% chance of winning the series, down from 69.3%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
  • May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
  • May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
  • May 8: Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning (▼17.5)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼27.2)
    • In 6 games: 25.3% (▲3.2)
    • In 7 games: 26.4% (▲6.4)
  • St. Louis has a 48.2% chance of winning (▲17.5)
    • In 7 games: 21.7% (▲5.3)
    • In 6 games: 26.5% (▲12.2)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Toronto now has a 59.2% chance of winning the series, down from 76.3%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
  • May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
  • May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
  • May 8: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning (▼17.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼32.6)
    • In 6 games: 30.6% (▲6.4)
    • In 7 games: 28.6% (▲9.1)
  • Tampa Bay has a 40.8% chance of winning (▲17.1)
    • In 7 games: 19.1% (▲6.0)
    • In 6 games: 21.7% (▲11.1)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Edmonton now has a 57.5% chance of winning the series, down from 74.9%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
  • May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
  • May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
  • May 8: Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning (▼17.4)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼31.5)
    • In 6 games: 28.9% (▲5.3)
    • In 7 games: 28.5% (▲8.7)
  • Los Angeles has a 42.5% chance of winning (▲17.4)
    • In 7 games: 19.9% (▲6.1)
    • In 6 games: 22.6% (▲11.3)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida at Washington

  • Washington leads series 2-1
  • Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning the series

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers at Pittsburgh

  • Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
  • Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning the series

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado at Nashville

  • Colorado leads series 3-0
  • Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary at Dallas

  • Dallas leads series 2-1
  • Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Florida 38.6%, Washington 61.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Florida: 1581, 6th overall
  • Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Florida: 7-3-0
  • Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
  • May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
  • May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
  • May 9: Florida at Washington
  • May 11: Washington at Florida
  • May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Florida has a 38.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 15.5%
    • In 7 games: 23.1%
  • Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.4%
    • In 6 games: 25.1%
    • In 5 games: 21.8%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 59.2%, Tampa Bay 40.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Toronto: 7-2-1
  • Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
  • May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
  • May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
  • May 8: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 30.6%
    • In 7 games: 28.6%
  • Tampa Bay has a 40.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 19.1%
    • In 6 games: 21.7%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 58.5%, Boston 41.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
  • Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins
  • Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Carolina: 8-2-0
  • Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
  • May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
  • May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
  • May 8: Carolina 2 at Boston 5
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 30.0%
    • In 7 games: 28.5%
  • Boston has a 41.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 19.9%
    • In 6 games: 21.6%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 33.5%, Pittsburgh 66.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
  • Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
  • Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • NY Rangers: 6-4-0
  • Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
  • May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
  • May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
  • May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 33.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 13.0%
    • In 7 games: 20.5%
  • Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.6%
    • In 6 games: 26.5%
    • In 5 games: 25.3%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 98.2%, Nashville 1.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
  • Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win
  • Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Colorado: 4-5-1
  • Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
  • May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
  • May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
  • May 9: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
  • May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 61.0%
    • In 5 games: 26.9%
    • In 6 games: 6.8%
    • In 7 games: 3.5%
  • Nashville has a 1.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 1.8%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Minnesota 51.8%, St. Louis 48.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
  • St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Minnesota: 0 wins
  • St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Minnesota: 8-1-1
  • St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
  • May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
  • May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
  • May 8: Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 25.3%
    • In 7 games: 26.4%
  • St. Louis has a 48.2% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 21.7%
    • In 6 games: 26.5%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 43.9%, Dallas 56.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
  • Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Calgary: 2 regulation wins
  • Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Calgary: 6-2-2
  • Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
  • May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
  • May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
  • May 9: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 43.9% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 18.6%
    • In 7 games: 25.3%
  • Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.1%
    • In 6 games: 23.3%
    • In 5 games: 18.7%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Edmonton 57.5%, Los Angeles 42.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
  • Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Edmonton: 7-2-1
  • Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
  • May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
  • May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
  • May 8: Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 28.9%
    • In 7 games: 28.5%
  • Los Angeles has a 42.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 19.9%
    • In 6 games: 22.6%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 8, 2022

Hockey playerYesterday, the rest of the Game 3s were played.  Things seem pretty even in most of the series, as 7 of the 8 are currently sitting at 2 games to 1, with only one series possibly ending in a sweep.

The President’s Trophy curse reared its ugly head again in the first game, as Florida lost their game to Washington, 6-1, to go down 2 games to 1.  Florida scored first, just 2:45 into the first period, but that was it for them, as Washington scored 1 goal in the first period, 2 in the second, and 3 in the third to take the victory.  Ilya Samsonov got the win in net for the Capitals, his first playoff win.  Washington now has a 61.4% chance of winning the series, but you can’t count Florida out yet!

In the second game, Colorado dominated Nashville 7-3 to take a 3-0 lead in that series.  Gabriel Landeskog scored 2 goals and assisted on 2 others to lead the Avalanche.  Colorado goalie Darcy Kuemper was injured in the first period as he took a stick in the eye, but Pavel Francouz, his replacement, was solid to seal the win.  We don’t think there’s much chance for Nashville anymore, as the boys in the back room have calculated that Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning the series, and a 61.0% chance of sweeping.

The third game saw the New York Rangers travel to Pittsburgh.  The Penguins weren’t very congenial hosts, as they defeated the Rangers 7-4.  The game was much closer than the score would indicate, though.  The Penguins scored first, but the Rangers tied it.  Pittsburgh scored three more times in the first period to go up 4-1, but the Rangers came charging back in the second, scoring three of their own to even the game going into the 3rd period.  Pittsburgh broke the tie with a goal 11 minutes into the third, and iced the game by scoring two empty-netters at the end.  We’re now giving Pittsburgh, who finished 3rd in the Metropolitan Division behind the 2nd place Rangers, a 66.5% chance of winning the series.

In the final game of the night, Dallas headed home after splitting the two games in Calgary.  Home ice was good to the Stars, as they won 4-2.  Joe Pavelski scored twice for the Stars, including the game winner, his second game winner of the series.  Calgary has only scored three goals in the three games in this series, but are only down two games to one.  The algorithms now give Dallas a slight edge in this series, with a 56.1% chance of winning it.

Yesterday’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida 1 at Washington 6

  • Washington leads series 2-1
  • Washington now has a 61.4% chance of winning the series, up from 41.1%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
  • May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
  • May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
  • May 9: Florida at Washington
  • May 11: Washington at Florida
  • May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Florida has a 38.6% chance of winning (▼20.3)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼17.8)
    • In 6 games: 15.5% (▼4.6)
    • In 7 games: 23.1% (▲2.1)
  • Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning (▲20.3)
    • In 7 games: 14.4% (▲1.1)
    • In 6 games: 25.1% (▲8.0)
    • In 5 games: 21.8% (▲11.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado 7 at Nashville 3

  • Colorado leads series 3-0
  • Colorado now has a 98.2% chance of winning the series, up from 92.2%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
  • May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
  • May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
  • May 9: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
  • May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning (▲6.0)
    • In 4 games: 61.0% (▲24.4)
    • In 5 games: 26.9% (▼5.0)
    • In 6 games: 6.8% (▼7.5)
    • In 7 games: 3.5% (▼5.8)
  • Nashville has a 1.8% chance of winning (▼6.0)
    • In 7 games: 1.8% (▼3.2)
    • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼2.8)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7

  • Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
  • Pittsburgh now has a 66.5% chance of winning the series, up from 47.4%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
  • May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
  • May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
  • May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 33.5% chance of winning (▼19.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼14.5)
    • In 6 games: 13.0% (▼5.0)
    • In 7 games: 20.5% (▲0.3)
  • Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning (▲19.1)
    • In 7 games: 14.6% (▲0.1)
    • In 6 games: 26.5% (▲7.0)
    • In 5 games: 25.3% (▲11.9)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary 2 at Dallas 4

  • Dallas leads series 2-1
  • Dallas now has a 56.1% chance of winning the series, up from 35.4%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
  • May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
  • May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
  • May 9: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 43.9% chance of winning (▼20.7)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼20.9)
    • In 6 games: 18.6% (▼3.6)
    • In 7 games: 25.3% (▲3.9)
  • Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning (▲20.7)
    • In 7 games: 14.1% (▲2.0)
    • In 6 games: 23.3% (▲8.5)
    • In 5 games: 18.7% (▲10.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina at Boston

  • Carolina leads series 2-1
  • Carolina has a 75.6% chance of winning the series

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota at St. Louis

  • Minnesota leads series 2-1
  • Minnesota has a 69.3% chance of winning the series

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto at Tampa Bay

  • Toronto leads series 2-1
  • Toronto has a 76.3% chance of winning the series

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton at Los Angeles

  • Edmonton leads series 2-1
  • Edmonton has a 74.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Florida 38.6%, Washington 61.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Florida: 1581, 6th overall
  • Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Florida: 7-3-0
  • Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
  • May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
  • May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
  • May 9: Florida at Washington
  • May 11: Washington at Florida
  • May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Florida has a 38.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 15.5%
    • In 7 games: 23.1%
  • Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.4%
    • In 6 games: 25.1%
    • In 5 games: 21.8%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 76.3%, Tampa Bay 23.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Toronto: 7-2-1
  • Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
  • May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
  • May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
  • May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 76.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 32.6%
    • In 6 games: 24.2%
    • In 7 games: 19.5%
  • Tampa Bay has a 23.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 13.1%
    • In 6 games: 10.6%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 75.6%, Boston 24.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
  • Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins
  • Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Carolina: 8-2-0
  • Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
  • May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
  • May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
  • May 8: Carolina at Boston
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 75.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 32.0%
    • In 6 games: 24.0%
    • In 7 games: 19.6%
  • Boston has a 24.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 13.6%
    • In 6 games: 10.8%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 33.5%, Pittsburgh 66.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
  • Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
  • Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • NY Rangers: 6-4-0
  • Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
  • May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
  • May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
  • May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 33.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 13.0%
    • In 7 games: 20.5%
  • Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.6%
    • In 6 games: 26.5%
    • In 5 games: 25.3%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 98.2%, Nashville 1.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
  • Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win
  • Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Colorado: 4-5-1
  • Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
  • May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
  • May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
  • May 9: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
  • May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 61.0%
    • In 5 games: 26.9%
    • In 6 games: 6.8%
    • In 7 games: 3.5%
  • Nashville has a 1.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 1.8%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Minnesota 69.3%, St. Louis 30.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
  • St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Minnesota: 0 wins
  • St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Minnesota: 8-1-1
  • St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
  • May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
  • May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
  • May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 69.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 27.2%
    • In 6 games: 22.1%
    • In 7 games: 20.0%
  • St. Louis has a 30.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 16.4%
    • In 6 games: 14.3%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 43.9%, Dallas 56.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
  • Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Calgary: 2 regulation wins
  • Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Calgary: 6-2-2
  • Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
  • May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
  • May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
  • May 9: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 43.9% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 18.6%
    • In 7 games: 25.3%
  • Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.1%
    • In 6 games: 23.3%
    • In 5 games: 18.7%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Edmonton 74.9%, Los Angeles 25.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
  • Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Edmonton: 7-2-1
  • Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
  • May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
  • May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
  • May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 74.9% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 31.5%
    • In 6 games: 23.6%
    • In 7 games: 19.8%
  • Los Angeles has a 25.1% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 13.8%
    • In 6 games: 11.3%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 7, 2022

Hockey playerYesterday was the first day of Game 3s, where the lower-seeded team is now the home team.  After after those games, all of yesterday’s series are at 2-1!  We’ll see if that continues tonight.

In the first game, Carolina visited Boston with a 2-0 series lead.  But, Boston came through at home with a 4-2 victory.  Brad Marchand had a goal and two assists to lead the Bruins, and goalie Jeremy Swayman got his first playoff victory in his first playoff start.  Marchand’s goal gives him 46 career playoff goals for Boston, tying Phil Esposito for 3rd in Boston history.  Despite the loss, Carolina still holds a 2-1 series lead, and we’re giving them a 75.6% chance of winning the series.

In the second game, Toronto travelled to Tampa Bay with the series knotted at 1.  Toronto scored the first 3 goals of the game, but Tampa Bay came storming back, making it 3-2 in the third.  In a high-pressure third, Jack Campbell made a brilliant save off a shot from Steven Stamkos on a power play to hold the lead.  In the last two minutes, Toronto scored two empty net goals to seal the victory.  With the win, we’re now giving Toronto a 76.3% chance of winning the series.

Over to the Western Conference, Minnesota and St. Louis faced off in St. Louis with their series also tied at 1.  Minnesota scored early (1st goal 39 seconds into the game) and often, taking a 4-0 lead before St. Louis got on the board on a powerplay goal early in the 3rd.  But, Minnesota scored again and St. Louis couldn’t, and this one ended 5-1.  Marc-Andre Fleury got the win for Minnesota, his 92nd playoff win, tying him for 3rd in NHL history with Grant Fuhr.  He’s a ways behind the leader, Patrick Roy, who finished his career with 151 wins!  Despite being the 2nd Wild Card team in the West, we’re giving Minnesota a 69.3% chance of winning the series.

In the final game of the night, Edmonton thumped Los Angeles 8-2.  Evander Kane scored a hat trick for the Oilers, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman each had a pair themselves.  Kings goalie Jonathan Quick allowed 4 goals on 17 shots before being replaced by Cal Peterson in the second period, who didn’t do much better, allowing the final 4 goals on 20 shots.  The boys in the back room have calculated that Edmonton now has a 74.9% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina 2 at Boston 4

  • Carolina leads series 2-1
  • Carolina now has a 75.6% chance of winning the series, down from 86.7%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
  • May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
  • May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
  • May 8: Carolina at Boston
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 75.6% chance of winning (▼11.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼29.1)
    • In 5 games: 32.0% (▲2.0)
    • In 6 games: 24.0% (▲8.3)
    • In 7 games: 19.6% (▲7.8)
  • Boston has a 24.4% chance of winning (▲11.1)
    • In 7 games: 13.6% (▲5.4)
    • In 6 games: 10.8% (▲5.7)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2

  • Toronto leads series 2-1
  • Toronto now has a 76.3% chance of winning the series, up from 56.0%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
  • May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
  • May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
  • May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 76.3% chance of winning (▲20.3)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 32.6% (▲16.5)
    • In 6 games: 24.2% (▲5.0)
    • In 7 games: 19.5% (▼1.2)
  • Tampa Bay has a 23.7% chance of winning (▼20.3)
    • In 7 games: 13.1% (▼0.7)
    • In 6 games: 10.6% (▼7.7)
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼11.9)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1

  • Minnesota leads series 2-1
  • Minnesota now has a 69.3% chance of winning the series, up from 46.1%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
  • May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
  • May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
  • May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 69.3% chance of winning (▲23.2)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 27.2% (▲15.5)
    • In 6 games: 22.1% (▲6.6)
    • In 7 games: 20.0% (▲1.1)
  • St. Louis has a 30.7% chance of winning (▼23.2)
    • In 7 games: 16.4% (▲1.1)
    • In 6 games: 14.3% (▼7.9)
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼16.4)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2

  • Edmonton leads series 2-1
  • Edmonton now has a 74.9% chance of winning the series, up from 53.1%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
  • May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
  • May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
  • May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 74.9% chance of winning (▲21.8)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 31.5% (▲16.7)
    • In 6 games: 23.6% (▲5.7)
    • In 7 games: 19.8% (▼0.6)
  • Los Angeles has a 25.1% chance of winning (▼21.8)
    • In 7 games: 13.8% (▼0.4)
    • In 6 games: 11.3% (▼8.2)
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼13.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida at Washington

  • Series tied 1-1
  • Florida has a 58.9% chance of winning the series

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado at Nashville

  • Colorado leads series 2-0
  • Colorado has a 92.2% chance of winning the series

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers at Pittsburgh

  • Series tied 1-1
  • NY Rangers has a 52.6% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary at Dallas

  • Series tied 1-1
  • Calgary has a 64.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Florida 58.9%, Washington 41.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Florida: 1581, 6th overall
  • Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Florida: 7-3-0
  • Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
  • May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
  • May 7: Florida at Washington
  • May 9: Florida at Washington
  • May 11: Washington at Florida
  • May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Florida has a 58.9% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 17.8%
    • In 6 games: 20.1%
    • In 7 games: 21.0%
  • Washington has a 41.1% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 13.3%
    • In 6 games: 17.1%
    • In 5 games: 10.7%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 76.3%, Tampa Bay 23.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Toronto: 7-2-1
  • Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
  • May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
  • May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
  • May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 76.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 32.6%
    • In 6 games: 24.2%
    • In 7 games: 19.5%
  • Tampa Bay has a 23.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 13.1%
    • In 6 games: 10.6%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 75.6%, Boston 24.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
  • Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins
  • Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Carolina: 8-2-0
  • Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
  • May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
  • May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
  • May 8: Carolina at Boston
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 75.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 32.0%
    • In 6 games: 24.0%
    • In 7 games: 19.6%
  • Boston has a 24.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 13.6%
    • In 6 games: 10.8%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 52.6%, Pittsburgh 47.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
  • Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
  • Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • NY Rangers: 6-4-0
  • Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
  • May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
  • May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 52.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 14.5%
    • In 6 games: 18.0%
    • In 7 games: 20.2%
  • Pittsburgh has a 47.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.5%
    • In 6 games: 19.5%
    • In 5 games: 13.4%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 92.2%, Nashville 7.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
  • Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win
  • Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Colorado: 4-5-1
  • Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
  • May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
  • May 7: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 9: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
  • May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 92.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 36.6%
    • In 5 games: 31.9%
    • In 6 games: 14.3%
    • In 7 games: 9.3%
  • Nashville has a 7.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 5.0%
    • In 6 games: 2.8%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Minnesota 69.3%, St. Louis 30.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
  • St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Minnesota: 0 wins
  • St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Minnesota: 8-1-1
  • St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
  • May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
  • May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
  • May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 69.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 27.2%
    • In 6 games: 22.1%
    • In 7 games: 20.0%
  • St. Louis has a 30.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 16.4%
    • In 6 games: 14.3%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 64.6%, Dallas 35.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
  • Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Calgary: 2 regulation wins
  • Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Calgary: 6-2-2
  • Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
  • May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
  • May 7: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 9: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 64.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 20.9%
    • In 6 games: 22.2%
    • In 7 games: 21.4%
  • Dallas has a 35.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 12.1%
    • In 6 games: 14.8%
    • In 5 games: 8.6%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Edmonton 74.9%, Los Angeles 25.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
  • Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Edmonton: 7-2-1
  • Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
  • May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
  • May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
  • May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 74.9% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 31.5%
    • In 6 games: 23.6%
    • In 7 games: 19.8%
  • Los Angeles has a 25.1% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 13.8%
    • In 6 games: 11.3%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 6, 2022

Hockey playerThe second set of games in the first playoff round have been completed.  6 of the 8 series are tied 1 game apiece!  It’s making for some exciting hockey!

In the first game last night, Igor Shesterkin was the star for the Rangers again, as he was solid in goal in a winning effort, stopping 39 shots in the 5-2 victory over Pittsburgh.  With the win, the Rangers tied the series, and have now become the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite again, as we’re now giving them a slight 52.6 / 47.4 edge to take the series.  The series heads to Pittsburgh for Games 3 and 4.

The second game featured Florida and Washington.  Florida, this year’s President’s Trophy winner, wanted to put Tuesday’s defeat behind them, and they did, winning handily, 5-1.  Five different players scored for the Panthers.  With the series tied 1-1, the teams head to Washington for Game 3.  We’ve calculated that, despite the next two games being on the road for them, Florida has a 58.9% chance of winning this series.

After being solidly beat in Game 1, Nashville looked to even their series against the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, the Colorado Avalanche.  They give it their best effort, but alas, it wasn’t quite enough as Colorado took the game 2-1 in overtime.  Cale Makar scored the winner for the Avalanche, as he led all players with 12 shots on goal!  That set a record for the Avalanche, and their predecessors the Quebec Nordiques, as the most shots by one player in a playoff game.  For Nashville, goalie Connor Ingram was busy, as he faced 51 shots, stopping 21 in the second period and 13 in the third!  With a 2-0 lead, we’re now giving Colorado a 92.2% chance of winning the series, as well as a 36.6% chance of a sweep.

In the final game of the night, Dallas shut out Calgary 2-0 to even their series.  Jake Oettinger got the shutout for the Stars, stopping all 29 of Calgary’s shots.  Joe Pavelski scored the first goal for Dallas, becoming the oldest player to score for the Stars in the playoffs since 2008.  He’s 37 years old.  Dallas’ other goal came on an empty net with just over a minute remaining to put the game out of reach.  With the series tied, we’re still giving Calgary the edge, with a 64.6% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5

  • Series tied 1-1
  • NY Rangers now has a 52.6% chance of winning the series, up from 37.8%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
  • May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
  • May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 52.6% chance of winning (▲14.8)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 14.5% (▲6.2)
    • In 6 games: 18.0% (▲5.3)
    • In 7 games: 20.2% (▲3.4)
  • Pittsburgh has a 47.4% chance of winning (▼14.8)
    • In 7 games: 14.5% (▲2.5)
    • In 6 games: 19.5% (▲0.5)
    • In 5 games: 13.4% (▼3.3)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼14.5)

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington 1 at Florida 5

  • Series tied 1-1
  • Florida now has a 58.9% chance of winning the series, up from 44.3%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
  • May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
  • May 7: Florida at Washington
  • May 9: Florida at Washington
  • May 11: Washington at Florida
  • May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Florida has a 58.9% chance of winning (▲14.6)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 17.8% (▲7.1)
    • In 6 games: 20.1% (▲5.1)
    • In 7 games: 21.0% (▲2.5)
  • Washington has a 41.1% chance of winning (▼14.6)
    • In 7 games: 13.3% (▲1.8)
    • In 6 games: 17.1% (▼0.6)
    • In 5 games: 10.7% (▼3.7)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.1)

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)

  • Colorado leads series 2-0
  • Colorado now has a 92.2% chance of winning the series, up from 84.4%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
  • May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
  • May 7: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 9: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
  • May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 92.2% chance of winning (▲7.8)
    • In 4 games: 36.6% (▲11.3)
    • In 5 games: 31.9% (▲2.8)
    • In 6 games: 14.3% (▼2.7)
    • In 7 games: 9.3% (▼3.7)
  • Nashville has a 7.8% chance of winning (▼7.8)
    • In 7 games: 5.0% (▼2.0)
    • In 6 games: 2.8% (▼3.4)
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼2.5)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas 2 at Calgary 0

  • Series tied 1-1
  • Calgary now has a 64.6% chance of winning the series, down from 82.5%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
  • May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
  • May 7: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 9: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 64.6% chance of winning (▼17.9)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼23.6)
    • In 5 games: 20.9% (▼7.3)
    • In 6 games: 22.2% (▲5.1)
    • In 7 games: 21.4% (▲7.8)
  • Dallas has a 35.4% chance of winning (▲17.9)
    • In 7 games: 12.1% (▲4.4)
    • In 6 games: 14.8% (▲7.8)
    • In 5 games: 8.6% (▲5.8)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina at Boston

  • Carolina leads series 2-0
  • Carolina has a 86.7% chance of winning the series

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto at Tampa Bay

  • Series tied 1-1
  • Toronto has a 56.0% chance of winning the series

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota at St. Louis

  • Series tied 1-1
  • St. Louis has a 53.9% chance of winning the series

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton at Los Angeles

  • Series tied 1-1
  • Edmonton has a 53.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Florida 58.9%, Washington 41.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Florida: 1581, 6th overall
  • Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Florida: 7-3-0
  • Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
  • May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
  • May 7: Florida at Washington
  • May 9: Florida at Washington
  • May 11: Washington at Florida
  • May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Florida has a 58.9% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 17.8%
    • In 6 games: 20.1%
    • In 7 games: 21.0%
  • Washington has a 41.1% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 13.3%
    • In 6 games: 17.1%
    • In 5 games: 10.7%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 56.0%, Tampa Bay 44.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Toronto: 7-2-1
  • Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
  • May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
  • May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 56.0% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 16.1%
    • In 6 games: 19.2%
    • In 7 games: 20.7%
  • Tampa Bay has a 44.0% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 13.8%
    • In 6 games: 18.3%
    • In 5 games: 11.9%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 86.7%, Boston 13.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
  • Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins
  • Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Carolina: 8-2-0
  • Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
  • May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
  • May 6: Carolina at Boston
  • May 8: Carolina at Boston
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 86.7% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 29.1%
    • In 5 games: 30.0%
    • In 6 games: 15.7%
    • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • Boston has a 13.3% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 8.2%
    • In 6 games: 5.1%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 52.6%, Pittsburgh 47.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
  • Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
  • Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • NY Rangers: 6-4-0
  • Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
  • May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
  • May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 52.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 14.5%
    • In 6 games: 18.0%
    • In 7 games: 20.2%
  • Pittsburgh has a 47.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.5%
    • In 6 games: 19.5%
    • In 5 games: 13.4%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 92.2%, Nashville 7.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
  • Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win
  • Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Colorado: 4-5-1
  • Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
  • May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
  • May 7: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 9: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
  • May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 92.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 36.6%
    • In 5 games: 31.9%
    • In 6 games: 14.3%
    • In 7 games: 9.3%
  • Nashville has a 7.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 5.0%
    • In 6 games: 2.8%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Minnesota 46.1%, St. Louis 53.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
  • St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Minnesota: 0 wins
  • St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Minnesota: 8-1-1
  • St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
  • May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
  • May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 46.1% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 11.7%
    • In 6 games: 15.5%
    • In 7 games: 18.9%
  • St. Louis has a 53.9% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 15.3%
    • In 6 games: 22.2%
    • In 5 games: 16.4%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 64.6%, Dallas 35.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
  • Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Calgary: 2 regulation wins
  • Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Calgary: 6-2-2
  • Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
  • May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
  • May 7: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 9: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 64.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 20.9%
    • In 6 games: 22.2%
    • In 7 games: 21.4%
  • Dallas has a 35.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 12.1%
    • In 6 games: 14.8%
    • In 5 games: 8.6%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Edmonton 53.1%, Los Angeles 46.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
  • Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Edmonton: 7-2-1
  • Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
  • May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
  • May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 53.1% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 14.8%
    • In 6 games: 17.9%
    • In 7 games: 20.4%
  • Los Angeles has a 46.9% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 14.2%
    • In 6 games: 19.5%
    • In 5 games: 13.1%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 4, 2022

Hockey playerThere were four more games last night, and now each series has played 1 game.  Two games saw lower-seeded teams defeating higher-seeded ones, and one of those took almost 106 minutes before it was over!

In the first game of the night, the New York Rangers hosted Pittsburgh.  This game was a story of goalies, as the game went into triple overtime before Pittsburgh finally finished off a 4-3 victory.  For the losing Rangers, goalie Igor Shesterkin set a Rangers record with 79 saves!  That surpassed the old record of 56 saves, set by Gump Worsley way back in the 1962 playoffs.  Gump was one of my first two favourite players when I was a little kid (Jean Beliveau was the other), and incidentally, he had also played for the Saskatoon Quakers; I remember seeing his picture in the entrance to the old Saskatoon Arena.  Interestingly enough, during his time in Saskatoon, he was also a star soccer player, and played in a game between the Saskatoon All-Stars and Tottenham Hotspur!

But enough about Gump!  In last night’s game, Louis Domingue, Pittsburgh’s 3rd-string goalie, came off the bench in the middle of the second overtime to replace starter and 2nd-string goalie Casey DeSmith who had to leave after suffering a lower-body injury.  By the way, 1st-string goalie Tristan Jarry has been out with an injury for the last 3 weeks.  Anyways, Domingue finished off the game with 17 saves and Evgeni Malkin scored 5:58 into the third overtime period to win the game for Pittsburgh.  With the win, Pittsburgh is now our favourite to win this series, as we’re giving them a 62.2% chance of winning it.

The rest of the games only took 60 minutes to play, starting with Washington facing Florida. After being down 2-1 after two periods, Washington scored three goals in the 3rd, the last being an empty-netter, to take the victory and a 1-0 lead in the series.  Washington, the 2nd wildcard team in the Eastern Conference, now has a 55.7% chance of defeating President’s Trophy winning top-seed Florida.  That President’s Trophy is cursed, I tell you!

Over to the Western Conference, Colorado shook off their late-season slump to defeat Nashville 7-2.  Colorado scored early and often, potting 5 goals in the first period.  Nashville’s top goalie, Juuse Saros, is currently injured, and the Avalanche took advantage, chasing David Rittich after just 15 minutes.  We’re now giving Colorado an 84.4% chance of winning this series.

In the final game of the night, Calgary defeated Dallas 1-0, with the only goal of the game coming on a powerplay in the first period.  Jacob Markstrom got the shutout for Calgary, stopping 16 shots.  Markstrom led the league with 9 shutouts in the regular season.  For the Stars, Jake Oettinger stopped 25 of Calgary’s 26 shots, but it just wasn’t enough.  We’ve now calculated that Calgary has an 82.5% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)

  • Pittsburgh leads series 1-0
  • Pittsburgh now has a 62.2% chance of winning the series, up from 41.8%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
  • May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 37.8% chance of winning (▼20.4)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.7)
    • In 5 games: 8.3% (▼9.1)
    • In 6 games: 12.7% (▼2.4)
    • In 7 games: 16.8% (▲0.8)
  • Pittsburgh has a 62.2% chance of winning (▲20.4)
    • In 7 games: 12.0% (▲0.6)
    • In 6 games: 19.0% (▲4.6)
    • In 5 games: 16.7% (▲6.7)
    • In 4 games: 14.5% (▲8.6)

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington 4 at Florida 2

  • Washington leads series 1-0
  • Washington now has a 55.7% chance of winning the series, up from 34.7%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
  • May 5: Washington at Florida
  • May 7: Florida at Washington
  • May 9: Florida at Washington
  • May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
  • May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Florida has a 44.3% chance of winning (▼21.0)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.6)
    • In 5 games: 10.7% (▼9.5)
    • In 6 games: 15.0% (▼1.3)
    • In 7 games: 18.5% (▲2.3)
  • Washington has a 55.7% chance of winning (▲21.0)
    • In 7 games: 11.5% (▲1.3)
    • In 6 games: 17.7% (▲5.5)
    • In 5 games: 14.4% (▲6.6)
    • In 4 games: 12.1% (▲7.6)

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Nashville 2 at Colorado 7

  • Colorado leads series 1-0
  • Colorado now has an 84.4% chance of winning the series, up from 74.5%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
  • May 5: Nashville at Colorado
  • May 7: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 9: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
  • May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 84.4% chance of winning (▲9.9)
    • In 4 games: 25.3% (▲8.1)
    • In 5 games: 29.1% (▲4.7)
    • In 6 games: 17.0% (▼0.5)
    • In 7 games: 13.0% (▼2.4)
  • Nashville has a 15.6% chance of winning (▼9.9)
    • In 7 games: 7.0% (▼1.2)
    • In 6 games: 6.2% (▼2.9)
    • In 5 games: 2.5% (▼2.8)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼2.8)

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas 0 at Calgary 1

  • Calgary leads series 1-0
  • Calgary now has a 82.5% chance of winning the series, up from 71.8%

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
  • May 5: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 7: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 9: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 82.5% chance of winning (▲10.7)
    • In 4 games: 23.6% (▲8.0)
    • In 5 games: 28.2% (▲5.0)
    • In 6 games: 17.1% (▼0.1)
    • In 7 games: 13.6% (▼2.2)
  • Dallas has a 17.5% chance of winning (▼10.7)
    • In 7 games: 7.7% (▼1.2)
    • In 6 games: 7.0% (▼3.1)
    • In 5 games: 2.8% (▼3.2)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼3.3)

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Boston at Carolina

  • Carolina leads series 1-0
  • Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning the series

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at Toronto

  • Toronto leads series 1-0
  • Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning the series

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis at Minnesota

  • St. Louis leads series 1-0
  • St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning the series

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles at Edmonton

  • Los Angeles leads series 1-0
  • Los Angeles has a 61.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Florida 44%, Washington 56%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

  • Florida: 1581, 6th overall
  • Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Florida: 7-3-0
  • Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
  • May 5: Washington at Florida
  • May 7: Florida at Washington
  • May 9: Florida at Washington
  • May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
  • May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Florida has a 44.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 10.7%
    • In 6 games: 15.0%
    • In 7 games: 18.5%
  • Washington has a 55.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.5%
    • In 6 games: 17.7%
    • In 5 games: 14.4%
    • In 4 games: 12.1%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Toronto 76%, Tampa Bay 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Toronto: 7-2-1
  • Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
  • May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 18.3%
    • In 5 games: 25.1%
    • In 6 games: 16.9%
    • In 7 games: 15.1%
  • Tampa Bay has a 24.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 10.2%
    • In 6 games: 9.9%
    • In 5 games: 4.4%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 75%, Boston 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
  • Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins
  • Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Carolina: 8-2-0
  • Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
  • May 4: Boston at Carolina
  • May 6: Carolina at Boston
  • May 8: Carolina at Boston
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 18.1%
    • In 5 games: 24.5%
    • In 6 games: 16.9%
    • In 7 games: 15.1%
  • Boston has a 25.3% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 10.4%
    • In 6 games: 10.2%
    • In 5 games: 4.7%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 38%, Pittsburgh 62%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
  • Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
  • Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • NY Rangers: 6-4-0
  • Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
  • May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 37.8% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 8.3%
    • In 6 games: 12.7%
    • In 7 games: 16.8%
  • Pittsburgh has a 62.2% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 12.0%
    • In 6 games: 19.0%
    • In 5 games: 16.7%
    • In 4 games: 14.5%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 84%, Nashville 16%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
  • Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win
  • Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Colorado: 4-5-1
  • Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
  • May 5: Nashville at Colorado
  • May 7: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 9: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
  • May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 84.4% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 25.3%
    • In 5 games: 29.1%
    • In 6 games: 17.0%
    • In 7 games: 13.0%
  • Nashville has a 15.6% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 7.0%
    • In 6 games: 6.2%
    • In 5 games: 2.5%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Minnesota 30%, St. Louis 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
  • St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Minnesota: 0 wins
  • St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Minnesota: 8-1-1
  • St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
  • May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 30.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 6.1%
    • In 6 games: 9.9%
    • In 7 games: 14.5%
  • St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.6%
    • In 6 games: 20.0%
    • In 5 games: 19.3%
    • In 4 games: 18.5%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Calgary 83%, Dallas 17%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
  • Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Calgary: 2 regulation wins
  • Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Calgary: 6-2-2
  • Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
  • May 5: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 7: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 9: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 82.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 23.6%
    • In 5 games: 28.2%
    • In 6 games: 17.1%
    • In 7 games: 13.6%
  • Dallas has a 17.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 7.7%
    • In 6 games: 7.0%
    • In 5 games: 2.8%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 38%, Los Angeles 62%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
  • Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Edmonton: 7-2-1
  • Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
  • May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 38.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 8.4%
    • In 6 games: 12.7%
    • In 7 games: 17.1%
  • Los Angeles has a 61.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.8%
    • In 6 games: 19.0%
    • In 5 games: 16.5%
    • In 4 games: 14.4%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14.1%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           11.1%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           10.9%
 4       Calgary Flames                10.6%
 5       Florida Panthers               9.1%
 6       St. Louis Blues                7.4%
 7       Minnesota Wild                 6.9%
 8       New York Rangers               5.6%
 9       Edmonton Oilers                5.5%
10       Tampa Bay Lightning            4.4%
11       Boston Bruins                  4.3%
12       Pittsburgh Penguins            2.9%
13       Los Angeles Kings              2.6%
14       Washington Capitals            2.1%
15       Dallas Stars                   1.3%
16       Nashville Predators            1.2%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 3, 2022

Hockey playerThe playoffs have started!  In last night’s games, as could probably be expected in first-round games, there was only one close game.  What was surprising, though, was one of those non-close games was an upset!

In the first game of the night, Carolina beat Boston 5-1.  Carolina is the top-seeded team in this matchup, and they were playing at home, so this wasn’t much of a surprise.  Goalie Antti Raanta was the star of the game, getting the win in his first career playoff start.  He’s the Hurricane’s backup goalie, starting in place of Frederik Andersen who is out with a lower-body injury.  Five separate players scored for Carolina.  Carolina was our favourite going into this series, and we’ve calculated that they now have a 74.7% chance of winning the series.

The second game featured defending two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay in Toronto to face the Maple Leafs.  Heavy underdogs because they can’t seem to win in the playoffs, Toronto silenced their critics with a strong 5-0 shutout.  Auston Matthews, this year’s league-leading goal scorer, scored twice and assisted once for Toronto, while linemate Mitchell Marner scored once and assisted twice.  Jack Campbell earned the shutout, making 24 saves.  The boys in the back room now figure that Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning the series, although they don’t seem to be taking into account the Curse of Harold Ballard.

Over in the Western Conference, St. Louis got the second shutout of the night, beating Minnesota 4-0 on the road.  Although Minnesota is the higher-seeded team, we were giving St. Louis a slight edge to win the series.  We’ve now calculated their chances of winning increased to 69.5%, up from 50.2%.  The big star for the Blues was David Perron, who scored his first career playoff hat trick, with two powerplay goals and an even-strength goal.  Ville Husso had a busy night in net for St. Louis, stopping 37 shots to earn the shutout.

In the night’s final game, Los Angeles upset Edmonton 4-3.  With the scored tied 3-3 with 5 minutes left in regulation time, Edmonton goalie Mike Smith turned the puck over trying to clear the puck, and the Kings took advantage of the unforced error to score the winning goal.  Although Edmonton is the higher-seeded team, with the upset, we’re now giving LA a 61.7% chance of winning the series.

There four games on tap tonight, as the remaining four series start.  The New York Rangers host Pittsburgh, Washington entertains Florida (I always like when sportscasters say a team entertains another — I imaging them juggling balls!), Nashville visits Colorado, and Dallas travels to Calgary.

Yesterday’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Boston 1 at Carolina 5

  • Carolina leads series 1-0
  • Carolina now has a 74.7% chance of winning the series, up from 60.7%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
  • May 4: Boston at Carolina
  • May 6: Carolina at Boston
  • May 8: Carolina at Boston
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning (▲14.0)
    • In 4 games: 18.1% (▲7.3)
    • In 5 games: 24.5% (▲6.2)
    • In 6 games: 16.9% (▲1.5)
    • In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.0)
  • Boston has a 25.3% chance of winning (▼14.0)
    • In 7 games: 10.4% (▼0.6)
    • In 6 games: 10.2% (▼3.4)
    • In 5 games: 4.7% (▼4.5)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.5)

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5

  • Toronto leads series 1-0
  • Toronto now has a 75.5% chance of winning the series, up from 62.2%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
  • May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning (▲13.3)
    • In 4 games: 18.3% (▲7.1)
    • In 5 games: 25.1% (▲6.0)
    • In 6 games: 16.9% (▲1.2)
    • In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.2)
  • Tampa Bay has a 24.5% chance of winning (▼13.3)
    • In 7 games: 10.2% (▼0.6)
    • In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
    • In 5 games: 4.4% (▼4.3)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.0)

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0

  • St. Louis leads series 1-0
  • St. Louis now has a 69.5% chance of winning the series, up from 50.2%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
  • May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 30.5% chance of winning (▼19.3)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼7.2)
    • In 5 games: 6.1% (▼8.2)
    • In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
    • In 7 games: 14.5% (▼0.6)
  • St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning (▲19.3)
    • In 7 games: 11.6% (▼0.9)
    • In 6 games: 20.0% (▲3.2)
    • In 5 games: 19.3% (▲6.7)
    • In 4 games: 18.5% (▲10.2)

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3

  • Los Angeles leads series 1-0
  • Los Angeles now has a 61.7% chance of winning the series, up from 40.9%

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
  • May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 38.3% chance of winning (▼20.8)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼10.3)
    • In 5 games: 8.4% (▼9.3)
    • In 6 games: 12.7% (▼2.4)
    • In 7 games: 17.1% (▲1.0)
  • Los Angeles has a 61.7% chance of winning (▲20.8)
    • In 7 games: 11.8% (▲0.5)
    • In 6 games: 19.0% (▲4.8)
    • In 5 games: 16.5% (▲6.8)
    • In 4 games: 14.4% (▲8.6)

Today’s Games

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh at NY Rangers

  • Series tied 0-0
  • NY Rangers have a 58.2% chance of winning the series

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington at Florida

  • Series tied 0-0
  • Florida has a 65.3% chance of winning the series

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Nashville at Colorado

  • Series tied 0-0
  • Colorado has a 74.5% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas at Calgary

  • Series tied 0-0
  • Calgary has a 71.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 65%, Washington 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

  • Florida: 1581, 6th overall
  • Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Florida: 7-3-0
  • Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington at Florida
  • May 5: Washington at Florida
  • May 7: Florida at Washington
  • May 9: Florida at Washington
  • May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
  • May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Florida has a 65.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 12.6%
    • In 5 games: 20.2%
    • In 6 games: 16.3%
    • In 7 games: 16.2%
  • Washington has a 34.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 10.2%
    • In 6 games: 12.2%
    • In 5 games: 7.8%
    • In 4 games: 4.5%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Toronto 76%, Tampa Bay 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Toronto: 7-2-1
  • Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
  • May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 18.3%
    • In 5 games: 25.1%
    • In 6 games: 16.9%
    • In 7 games: 15.1%
  • Tampa Bay has a 24.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 10.2%
    • In 6 games: 9.9%
    • In 5 games: 4.4%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 75%, Boston 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
  • Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins
  • Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Carolina: 8-2-0
  • Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
  • May 4: Boston at Carolina
  • May 6: Carolina at Boston
  • May 8: Carolina at Boston
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 18.1%
    • In 5 games: 24.5%
    • In 6 games: 16.9%
    • In 7 games: 15.1%
  • Boston has a 25.3% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 10.4%
    • In 6 games: 10.2%
    • In 5 games: 4.7%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 58%, Pittsburgh 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
  • Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
  • Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • NY Rangers: 6-4-0
  • Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 58.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 9.7%
    • In 5 games: 17.4%
    • In 6 games: 15.1%
    • In 7 games: 16.0%
  • Pittsburgh has a 41.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.4%
    • In 6 games: 14.4%
    • In 5 games: 10.0%
    • In 4 games: 5.9%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 75%, Nashville 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
  • Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win
  • Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Colorado: 4-5-1
  • Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville at Colorado
  • May 5: Nashville at Colorado
  • May 7: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 9: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
  • May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 74.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 17.2%
    • In 5 games: 24.4%
    • In 6 games: 17.5%
    • In 7 games: 15.4%
  • Nashville has a 25.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 8.2%
    • In 6 games: 9.1%
    • In 5 games: 5.3%
    • In 4 games: 2.8%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Minnesota 30%, St. Louis 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
  • St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Minnesota: 0 wins
  • St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Minnesota: 8-1-1
  • St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
  • May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 30.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 6.1%
    • In 6 games: 9.9%
    • In 7 games: 14.5%
  • St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.6%
    • In 6 games: 20.0%
    • In 5 games: 19.3%
    • In 4 games: 18.5%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Chances of winning: Calgary 72%, Dallas 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
  • Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Calgary: 2 regulation wins
  • Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Calgary: 6-2-2
  • Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 5: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 7: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 9: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 71.8% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 15.6%
    • In 5 games: 23.2%
    • In 6 games: 17.2%
    • In 7 games: 15.8%
  • Dallas has a 28.2% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 8.9%
    • In 6 games: 10.1%
    • In 5 games: 6.0%
    • In 4 games: 3.3%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 59%, Los Angeles 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
  • Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

  • Edmonton: 7-2-1
  • Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
  • May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 59.1% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 10.3%
    • In 5 games: 17.7%
    • In 6 games: 15.1%
    • In 7 games: 16.1%
  • Los Angeles has a 40.9% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.3%
    • In 6 games: 14.2%
    • In 5 games: 9.7%
    • In 4 games: 5.8%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14.1%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           11.1%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           10.9%
 4       Calgary Flames                10.6%
 5       Florida Panthers               9.1%
 6       St. Louis Blues                7.4%
 7       Minnesota Wild                 6.9%
 8       New York Rangers               5.6%
 9       Edmonton Oilers                5.5%
10       Tampa Bay Lightning            4.4%
11       Boston Bruins                  4.3%
12       Pittsburgh Penguins            2.9%
13       Los Angeles Kings              2.6%
14       Washington Capitals            2.1%
15       Dallas Stars                   1.3%
16       Nashville Predators            1.2%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Preview

Hockey playerThe NHL regular season has wrapped up, and it’s time for the playoffs!  All of the first-round playoff games have been scheduled, so we know who’s playing where and when.  Using the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, we’ve run a million simulations of each playoff series, and here’s what we’ve seen as a result.

Overall, we think that Colorado has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and we’re giving them a 14.1% chance of winning it all.  However, they were the favourite last year, and they didn’t even make the finals, so we’ll see what happens this year.  The President’s Trophy-winning team, the Florida Panthers, are ranked 6th in our Ratings, and we’re giving them a 9.1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, although that President’s Trophy does seem to be a curse!  Toronto, another cursed team, have the second-best chance of winning the Cup, as we’ve calculated that they’ve got an 11.1% chance of winning it.

The closest playoff matchup in the first round is Minnesota against St. Louis.  It’s pretty much a toss-up, although we’re giving St. Louis the slightest of edges, with a 50.2% chance of winning the series versus Minnesota’s 49.8% chance!  The most-lopsided matchup is Colorado vs. Nashville, and we’re giving Colorado a 74.5% chance of winning that one.  But, that still means that Nashville has about a 1 in 4 chance of upsetting our top-ranked team, so it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility.

Two final interesting (to me, at least) stats:

  • there is a 50.4% chance of an Eastern Conference team winning the Stanley Cup, versus a 49.6% chance of a Western Conference team winning it
  • there is a 27.2% chance of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup

Here’s our summary!

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 65%, Washington 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

  • Florida: 1581, 6th overall
  • Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 games:

  • Florida: 7-3-0
  • Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Washington at Florida
  • May 5: Washington at Florida
  • May 7: Florida at Washington
  • May 9: Florida at Washington
  • May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
  • May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
  • May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Florida has a 65.3% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 12.6%
    • In 5 games: 20.2%
    • In 6 games: 16.3%
    • In 7 games: 16.2%
  • Washington has a 34.7% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 10.2%
    • In 6 games: 12.2%
    • In 5 games: 7.8%
    • In 4 games: 4.5%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 62%, Tampa Bay 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
  • Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

  • Toronto: 7-2-1
  • Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
  • May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
  • May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
  • May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Toronto has a 62.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 11.2%
    • In 5 games: 19.1%
    • In 6 games: 15.7%
    • In 7 games: 16.3%
  • Tampa Bay has a 37.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 10.8%
    • In 6 games: 13.2%
    • In 5 games: 8.7%
    • In 4 games: 5.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 61%, Boston 39%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
  • Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins
  • Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 games:

  • Carolina: 8-2-0
  • Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Boston at Carolina
  • May 4: Boston at Carolina
  • May 6: Carolina at Boston
  • May 8: Carolina at Boston
  • May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
  • May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
  • May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Carolina has a 60.7% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 10.8%
    • In 5 games: 18.3%
    • In 6 games: 15.4%
    • In 7 games: 16.1%
  • Boston has a 39.3% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.0%
    • In 6 games: 13.6%
    • In 5 games: 9.2%
    • In 4 games: 5.5%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 58%, Pittsburgh 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
  • Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
  • Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 games:

  • NY Rangers: 6-4-0
  • Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
  • May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
  • May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
  • May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
  • May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 58.2% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 9.7%
    • In 5 games: 17.4%
    • In 6 games: 15.1%
    • In 7 games: 16.0%
  • Pittsburgh has a 41.8% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.4%
    • In 6 games: 14.4%
    • In 5 games: 10.0%
    • In 4 games: 5.9%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 75%, Nashville 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
  • Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win
  • Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 games:

  • Colorado: 4-5-1
  • Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Nashville at Colorado
  • May 5: Nashville at Colorado
  • May 7: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 9: Colorado at Nashville
  • May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
  • May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
  • May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 74.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 17.2%
    • In 5 games: 24.4%
    • In 6 games: 17.5%
    • In 7 games: 15.4%
  • Nashville has a 25.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 8.2%
    • In 6 games: 9.1%
    • In 5 games: 5.3%
    • In 4 games: 2.8%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Chances of winning: Minnesota 50%, St. Louis 50%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
  • St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Minnesota: 0 wins
  • St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 games:

  • Minnesota: 8-1-1
  • St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
  • May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
  • May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
  • May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
  • May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Minnesota has a 49.8% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 7.2%
    • In 5 games: 14.3%
    • In 6 games: 13.2%
    • In 7 games: 15.1%
  • St. Louis has a 50.2% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 12.5%
    • In 6 games: 16.8%
    • In 5 games: 12.6%
    • In 4 games: 8.3%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Chances of winning: Calgary 72%, Dallas 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
  • Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Calgary: 2 regulation wins
  • Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 games:

  • Calgary: 6-2-2
  • Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

  • May 3: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 5: Dallas at Calgary
  • May 7: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 9: Calgary at Dallas
  • May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
  • May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
  • May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Calgary has a 71.8% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 15.6%
    • In 5 games: 23.2%
    • In 6 games: 17.2%
    • In 7 games: 15.8%
  • Dallas has a 28.2% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 8.9%
    • In 6 games: 10.1%
    • In 5 games: 6.0%
    • In 4 games: 3.3%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 59%, Los Angeles 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
  • Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

  • Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 games:

  • Edmonton: 7-2-1
  • Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

  • May 2: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
  • May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
  • May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
  • May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
  • May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Edmonton has a 59.1% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 10.3%
    • In 5 games: 17.7%
    • In 6 games: 15.1%
    • In 7 games: 16.1%
  • Los Angeles has a 40.9% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.3%
    • In 6 games: 14.2%
    • In 5 games: 9.7%
    • In 4 games: 5.8%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14.1%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           11.1%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           10.9%
 4       Calgary Flames                10.6%
 5       Florida Panthers               9.1%
 6       St. Louis Blues                7.4%
 7       Minnesota Wild                 6.9%
 8       New York Rangers               5.6%
 9       Edmonton Oilers                5.5%
10       Tampa Bay Lightning            4.4%
11       Boston Bruins                  4.3%
12       Pittsburgh Penguins            2.9%
13       Los Angeles Kings              2.6%
14       Washington Capitals            2.1%
15       Dallas Stars                   1.3%
16       Nashville Predators            1.2%